Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market in 2025 was deeply influenced by the expansion cycle of production capacity and the weak growth of demand, leading to a systematic decline in the price center. Periodic rebounds were constrained by high inventory and weak market conditions. For investors, understanding these influencing factors is crucial for making correct judgments, and for producers, seizing market rhythm and supply - demand changes to conduct sell - hedging at high prices is also essential [7][18]. - The process of production capacity clearance is slow, and the proportion of low - cost natural soda ash production capacity is continuously increasing. Although leading enterprises can survive relying on resource endowments, the overall profitability improvement of the industry is limited. The cold repair of float glass has led to a decline in the demand for dense soda ash, and the photovoltaic glass market has turned downward. Light soda ash has become the only growth point. In 2026, the pressure of new production capacity remains, and the profit rebound needs to wait for a substantial contraction in supply or a recovery in glass demand [7][27]. - In 2025, the domestic soda ash production increased significantly compared with previous years. From January to October, the cumulative production was 3,302 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The heavy soda ash ratio fluctuated between 53 - 57%, significantly lower than last year. Multiple production lines were put into operation in 2025, and the supply of soda ash continued to increase. If high - cost alkali plants cannot exit the market smoothly, the pattern of oversupply will be further strengthened. Considering the current industry situation, the annual supply increase in 2026 will be about 1%, with a total production increase of 35 million tons [7][8]. - In 2025, the daily melting volume of float glass remained at a low level, and the photovoltaic glass first increased and then decreased. The total daily melting volume of the two showed a trend of high in the front and low in the back, continuously lower than the same period last year. From January to October, the total daily melting volume of float and photovoltaic glass slightly decreased to 25.0 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%, corresponding to a 9.9% year - on - year decrease in the demand for dense soda ash. In addition, from January to October, the demand for light soda ash was relatively strong, with the operating rate at a high level, and the apparent demand increased by 11.8% year - on - year. In 2026, the total demand for soda ash will decrease by 4.8%, a net decrease of 177 million tons, mainly from dense soda ash, with a year - on - year decrease of 15.3% and a net decrease of 312 million tons, while the demand for light soda ash will increase by 8% year - on - year, a net increase of 134 million tons [9][85]. - Since 2025, the domestic soda ash price has been at a low level, with a significant decrease in imports and an increase in exports. In the second half of the year, as the price continued to be low, the net export of domestic soda ash maintained a high level. From January to October, the cumulative net export volume was 175 million tons, while the same period last year was a net import of 9 million tons. It is expected that the net export volume in 2025 will increase to 218 million tons, and in 2026, it will further increase to 257 million tons [66][86]. - In 2025, the supply and demand of soda ash were continuously loose, and the total inventory remained at a high level. The three - link inventory increased from 242 million tons at the beginning of the year to 294 million tons at present, reaching the highest level in the same period in history. According to the supply - demand balance analysis, the supply will increase by 0.9% and the demand will decrease by 6.4% in 2026, and the oversupply situation will continue. After some projects were put into operation in 2025, the high - cost supply will be suppressed at low prices, and the inventory will remain at a high level throughout the year [11][87]. Summary by Directory 2025 Soda Ash Price and Profit Review 2025 Soda Ash Price Center Moved Downward - In 2025, the soda ash price showed an overall downward trend with a narrowing price range. The average ex - factory price of light soda ash from January to October was 1,335 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 31%, and the terminal average price of dense soda ash was 1,422 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 31.9%. The price was mainly suppressed by the expansion of production capacity and weak demand [17]. - There were short - term price rebounds in February - March and July, but they were quickly suppressed. From April to June, the price accelerated its decline due to the release of new production capacity, and from August to October, it continued to decline due to weak demand and a decrease in exports [17]. 2025 Soda Ash Industry Profits Ran at a Low Level - In 2025, the soda ash industry was under continuous pressure on profits, showing a deep - loss pattern. The core factors were over - capacity and rising costs. From the beginning to the middle of the year, the losses continued to expand, and the profits of the ammonia - soda process and the combined - soda process continued to deteriorate. In October, the increase in the price of thermal coal led to a decline in the profits of the combined - soda process, and in November, the profits of the ammonia - soda process further declined [27]. - The process of production capacity clearance is slow, and the proportion of low - cost natural soda ash production capacity is increasing. The overall profitability improvement of the industry is limited. In 2026, the pressure of new production capacity remains, and the profit rebound needs to wait for a substantial contraction in supply or a recovery in glass demand [27]. Soda Ash Production Capacity Continued to be Put into Operation, and the Capacity Will Continue to Increase in 2026 2025 New Soda Ash Production Capacity was Put into Operation, and the Annual Supply Continued to Increase - In 2025, the domestic soda ash production increased significantly. From January to October, the cumulative production was 3,302 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The heavy soda ash ratio fluctuated between 53 - 57%, lower than last year [7][33]. - In the first half of the year, with the new production capacity put into operation, the production remained at a high level. In April, the monthly production reached a historical high of 364.2 million tons. In the second half of the year, the production decreased during the summer maintenance period, and then quickly recovered after the maintenance. As of November 21, the operating rate of soda ash enterprises was 82.68%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.12% [33]. Production Capacity Continued to be Put into Operation, and the Supply was Expected to Continue to Increase - Multiple production lines were put into operation in 2025, and the far - reaching Xingneng Phase II 2.8 million - ton natural soda ash project will be put into operation at the end of the year. If high - cost alkali plants cannot exit the market, the oversupply situation will be further strengthened [42]. - Based on the production capacity put into operation in 2025, the soda ash production will continue to increase in the next year. Considering the current industry situation, the annual supply will increase by about 1%, with a total production increase of 35 million tons [44]. The Demand for Dense Soda Ash First Increased and then Decreased, and the Growth of Soda Ash Demand Slowed Down in 2025 In 2025, the Daily Melting Volume of Photovoltaic and Float Glass Decreased, and the Growth of Soda Ash Demand Slowed Down - In 2025, the daily melting volume of float glass remained at a low level, and the photovoltaic glass first increased and then decreased. The total daily melting volume of the two was lower than the same period last year. As of now, the daily melting volume of float glass in production was 158,100 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass was 89,400 tons. From January to October, the total daily melting volume slightly decreased to 250,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%, corresponding to a 9.9% year - on - year decrease in the demand for dense soda ash [45]. - The demand for soda ash from float and photovoltaic glass gradually weakened due to the continuous downturn in the real - estate market and high inventory in the photovoltaic glass market. In addition, the demand for light soda ash was relatively strong from January to October, with an estimated year - on - year increase of 11.8% in apparent demand [51][53]. The Demand for Dense Soda Ash Declined, the Demand for Light Soda Ash Increased, and the Soda Ash Demand Decreased in 2026 - In 2026, the over - capacity problem of photovoltaic glass remains to be solved, and the production progress will slow down significantly. Although real - estate policies are continuously introduced, the glass consumption is difficult to improve. The float glass production will continue to decline, which will suppress the demand for dense soda ash, while the demand for light soda ash will continue to increase with economic activities [58]. - It is estimated that the total demand for soda ash in 2026 will decrease by 4.8%, a net decrease of 177 million tons, mainly from a 15.3% year - on - year decrease in dense soda ash demand (a net decrease of 312 million tons), and an 8% year - on - year increase in light soda ash demand (a net increase of 134 million tons) [58]. Domestic Soda Ash Price Ran at a Low Level, and Soda Ash Exports Increased Significantly - Since 2025, the domestic soda ash price has been at a low level, with a significant decrease in imports and an increase in exports. From January to October, the cumulative net export volume was 175 million tons, while the same period last year was a net import of 9 million tons. It is expected that the net export volume in 2025 will increase to 218 million tons, and in 2026, it will further increase to 257 million tons [66][86]. The Total Soda Ash Inventory is Expected to Remain at a High Level in 2026 2025 Soda Ash Supply and Demand were Loose, and the Total Inventory Ran at a High Level - In 2025, the supply and demand of soda ash were continuously loose, and the three - link inventory increased from 242 million tons at the beginning of the year to 294 million tons at present, reaching the highest level in the same period in history. The inventory of alkali plants remained at a high level, the inventory of delivery warehouses increased significantly, and the inventory days of sample glass factories were relatively stable [70]. 2026 Soda Ash Supply and Demand will Remain Loose, and the Inventory will Remain at a High Level - According to the supply - demand balance analysis, the supply will increase by 0.9% and the demand will decrease by 6.4% in 2026, and the oversupply situation will continue. After some projects were put into operation in 2025, the high - cost supply will be suppressed at low prices, and the inventory will remain at a high level throughout the year [72]. Soda Ash Supply - Demand Deduction and Market Outlook - Supply: Multiple production lines were put into operation in 2025, and the far - reaching Xingneng Phase II 2.8 million - ton natural soda ash project will be put into operation at the end of the year. If high - cost alkali plants cannot exit the market, the oversupply situation will be further strengthened. It is estimated that the production will increase by about 1% in 2026, with a total production increase of 35 million tons [73]. - Demand: In 2026, the production progress of photovoltaic glass will slow down, and the float glass production will continue to decline, suppressing the demand for dense soda ash. The demand for light soda ash will increase. The total demand for soda ash will decrease by 4.8%, a net decrease of 177 million tons [73]. - Net Export: As the supply - demand imbalance of soda ash further intensifies in 2026, the price will remain at a low level, and the export is expected to increase to 257 million tons [74]. - Inventory: After some projects were put into operation in 2025, the high - cost supply will be suppressed at low prices, and the inventory will remain at a high level throughout the year [75]. Summary - The soda ash price in 2025 showed a downward trend due to the expansion of production capacity and weak demand. In 2026, the over - capacity situation will continue, and the price will continue to decline unless some high - cost production capacity is cleared. Attention should be paid to price rebounds after production decreases due to increased enterprise maintenance and cost changes caused by thermal coal price fluctuations [6][87]. - The soda ash industry profits were under pressure in 2025, and the overall profitability improvement was limited. In 2026, the profit rebound needs to wait for a substantial contraction in supply or a recovery in glass demand [27]. - The supply of soda ash increased in 2025, and it is expected to continue to increase in 2026. The demand for dense soda ash will decline, while the demand for light soda ash will increase. The net export will increase, and the inventory will remain at a high level [84][87].