Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the heightened tensions in the Middle East following the U.S. airstrikes on Iran, particularly focusing on the implications for maritime shipping through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. Group 1: Impact on Shipping - Two supertankers, "Coswisdom Lake" and "South Loyalty," turned back near the Strait of Hormuz, indicating increased caution among shipping companies in response to the U.S. attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities [1] - The global shipping industry is on high alert regarding the potential impact on shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with many vessels opting to wait outside the strait rather than risk entering [2][3] - The shipping market's benchmark freight rates had already risen by nearly 90% prior to the U.S. strikes, and freight derivatives showed signs of a spike following the events [4] Group 2: Regional Tensions - Following the U.S. airstrikes, there is a possibility that Iran may attempt to disrupt commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which could include attacks on merchant vessels [1] - The Iranian parliament supports the idea of closing the Strait of Hormuz, but the final decision rests with the Iranian Supreme National Security Council [1] - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has already led to a decrease in the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, as shipping companies seek to avoid the area [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles emphasizes the importance of monitoring the oil supply situation amidst escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, noting that no oil supply has been lost so far, which aligns with the interests of all parties involved [1][2] - Brent crude oil prices surged by 7% on June 13, reaching a five-month high, following Israeli airstrikes that killed several Iranian commanders and damaged nuclear facilities [1] - The physical oil price reaction in the Middle East was more measured compared to the paper market, with Dubai crude's physical price rising by 5.8% to $71.03 per barrel, indicating that traders and refiners are less concerned about supply disruptions than paper market investors [1][2] Group 2 - The critical factor for the oil market is whether Iran's oil production and export infrastructure will be attacked and the realistic risk of Iran attempting to block the Strait of Hormuz, which carries up to 20 million barrels of oil daily, accounting for about one-fifth of global consumption [2] - Historically, the Strait of Hormuz has never been blocked despite past conflicts, suggesting that Iran may prefer to maintain the perception of risk to keep oil prices elevated without taking direct action [2][3] - If Iran were to attempt to close the Strait, it would likely lead to significant geopolitical consequences, including potential U.S. intervention to keep the waterway open, while Israel's attacks are currently limited to Iranian energy infrastructure without disrupting oil production and exports [3]