Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the market, with a focus on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may influence stock trading strategies [1][2]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance is influenced by high inflation and mixed employment data, leading to uncertainty about future interest rate cuts [1][2]. - There is a notable volatility in artificial intelligence stocks, with concerns about the sustainability of growth in language model adoption [1][4]. - Economic data shows a bifurcated landscape, with a slow recovery in the labor market but optimistic projections for early 2026 due to fiscal expansion and potential interest rate cuts [1][5]. - Retail and consumer stocks have performed better than last year, with positive indicators from companies like Walmart, although negative changes in non-farm employment data could lead to market turbulence [1][6]. - Investors are advised to adjust their portfolios towards early-cycle and more cyclical stocks rather than being overly concentrated in artificial intelligence-related stocks [1][7]. Economic Data and Labor Market - Current economic data is polarized, with some indicators suggesting a potential recession while others indicate a possible acceleration in recovery by early 2026 [5]. - The labor market is recovering slowly, with employment growth not returning to previous levels, and factors like immigration and AI potentially impacting job growth [5]. Retail and Consumer Sector - Retail and consumer stocks have shown significant improvement compared to last summer, with Walmart's strong back-to-school performance signaling a positive holiday sales season [6]. - However, there is a risk of market volatility if non-farm employment data shows negative trends [6]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors should focus on a non-recessionary rate-cutting cycle and the anticipated strong recovery in 2026, adjusting portfolios to favor early-cycle and cyclical stocks [7]. - Maintaining flexibility and closely monitoring economic data changes is crucial for investment strategy formulation [7]. Market Volatility and Opportunities - The report highlights that the current financial environment is very loose, with potential market volatility even from small interest rate cuts [13]. - There are significant investment opportunities in the U.S. front-end supply volatility, with events like Oracle's earnings showing substantial price movements [15]. - Emerging markets, particularly in Asia, are showing improved trading performance, driven by AI themes and favorable conditions for non-dollar denominated assets [16][19].

摩根大通私人 银行全球市场策略师唐雨旋表示，正式启动美联储降息策略部署，预期本月将展开非衰 退性降息周期。该行维持预期美联储将于9月开始新一轮降息周期，未来一年料降息100个基点。虽然关 税效应仍在消化，劳动市场亦开始显现疲态，但预期不会出现衰退。虽然下半年经济增长或会放缓，但 消费者仍具韧性，企业支出依然强劲，政策支持亦即将出台。 该行持续看好美股表现，尤其受惠于稳 健的企业基本面及 人工智能受益范围扩大等利好因素。在美国以外市场，该行新增中国以外的新兴市 场股票作为非美元资产配置的首选之一，与已推荐的非美发达市场股票及 黄金并列。此举反映对美元 进一步走弱的预期，亚洲贸易环境改善，以及中国台湾、印度及韩国等市场在估值及盈利能力上的相对 吸引力。 ...