证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·燃气Ⅱ ◼ 风险提示：经济增速不及预期、极端天气、国际局势变化、安全经营风险。 燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报 美国高温天气推动气价提升，欧洲储库推进气价回 落，关注利润稳定的高股息标的新奥股份 2025 年 07 月 21 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 证券分析师 谷玥 执业证书：S0600524090002 guy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 20% 2024/7/22 2024/11/19 2025/3/19 2025/7/17 燃气Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究 《储库推进欧洲气价上升，高温天气 缓和美国气价回落，关注利润稳定的 高股息标的新奥股份》 2025-07-14 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 《欧洲储库推进、美国高温天气持续， 各地气价平稳》 2025-07-07 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 价格跟踪：美国高温天气推动气 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·燃气Ⅱ 燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报 储库推进欧洲气价上升，高温天气缓和美国气价回 落，关注利润稳定的高股息标的新奥股份 2025 年 07 月 14 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025-06-30 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 谷玥 执业证书：S0600524090002 guy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 20% 2024/7/15 2024/11/12 2025/3/12 2025/7/10 燃气Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究 《欧洲储库推进、美国高温天气持续， 各地气价平稳》 2025-07-07 《中东局势缓和欧洲气价回落，高温 天气带动美国气价上涨，国内气价平 稳》 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 价格跟踪：欧洲储库推进气价上升，美国高温天气缓和气价回落，国内气价弱势运 行。截至 2025/07/11,美国 HH ...

中泰国际报告中提到，天伦燃气立足河南，并加强注重二三线地市地区，包括陕西、甘肃、青海、四 川、云南、吉林等，照顾当地基础及战略性产业例如稀土、化工、金属、建材对天然气的刚性需求。此 外公司减少对于居民用户接驳业务的依赖，降低房地产市场波动对盈利的影响。该机构预计，天然气零 售收入将由FY24的50.4亿元(人民币，下同)上升至FY27的63.4亿元，期内CAGR为7.9%。 增值业务上，天伦燃气把握城市更新机会，积极发展增值业务，例如智慧厨房改造、燃气具销售、及相 关保险。FY24增值业务收入为4.2亿元，同比快速增长14.3%，而毛利率更高达约49%，高于公司总毛率 17.2%。与此同时，中泰国际提到，公司推动高分红政策。全年核心利润分红比率由FY23的30.0%上升 至FY24的33.0%。公司目标FY25可提升至35.0%。 此外，公司顺价机制(指销售价格与采购成本的及时联动)逐渐有效运行，例如FY24综合销气价差为0.47 元/方，与FY23的0.48元/方相若。顺价机制有效运行，叠加上述工业供气的扩展，预计毛利益将由FY24 的17.2%下跌至FY25的16.9%，但其后回升至FY27的17.2%。 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·燃气Ⅱ 燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报 设施维护/高温天气带动欧洲/美国气价上涨， 国内气价平稳 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 风险提示：经济增速不及预期、极端天气、国际局势变化、安全经营风险。 2025 年 06 月 09 日 证券分析师 袁理 《需求偏弱国内气价回落，储库推进 欧洲气价回落》 2025-06-03 《库存大幅增长美国气价回落，需求 偏弱国内气价回落，库存偏低欧洲气 价微增》 2025-05-26 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 谷玥 执业证书：S0600524090002 guy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -11% -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 2024/6/11 2024/10/9 2025/2/6 2025/6/6 燃气Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究 | 1. 价格跟踪：设施维护/高温天气带动欧洲/美国气价上涨，国内气价平稳 4 | | --- | | 2. 顺价进展：全国顺价逐步推进，城燃 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, primarily due to the timing of the Spring Festival, proactive inventory adjustments, and a high comparative base from Q1 2024 [1][2]. Revenue Summary - Q1 2025 revenue reached 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.8%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 180 million yuan, down 24.2% [1]. - Revenue breakdown by product: soy sauce (650 million yuan, -31.6%), chicken essence/chicken powder (130 million yuan, -28.6%), cooking oil (50 million yuan, -50.0%), and other income (200 million yuan, -6.9%) [1]. - Revenue by sales model: distribution (970 million yuan, -30.7%) and direct sales (60 million yuan, +33.3%) [1]. - Revenue by region: Eastern (190 million yuan, -47.7%), Southern (420 million yuan, -19.6%), Central and Western (230 million yuan, -29.0%), and Northern (180 million yuan, -18.7%) [1]. Profitability Analysis - The company maintained a gross margin improvement trend, with Q1 2025 gross margin at 38.7%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Expense ratios for Q1 2025: sales (8.6%), management (8.1%), R&D (2.9%), and financial (0.3%), with increases in sales and management expenses [2]. - Net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 16.4%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with the non-recurring net profit margin also at 16.4%, up 0.4 percentage points [2]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in revenue growth following regional adjustments, projecting revenues of 5.66 billion yuan, 5.89 billion yuan, and 6.30 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.5%, 4.1%, and 6.9% [2]. - Expected net profits for the same years are 960 million yuan, 1.04 billion yuan, and 1.13 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 6.9%, 8.4%, and 9.3% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.2 yuan, 1.3 yuan, and 1.4 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [2].

| [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,012,812 | 2,937,981 | 3,039,996 | 3,002,751 | 3,003,101 | | 同比（%） | (6.99) | (2.48) | 3.47 | (1.23) | 0.01 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 161,414 | 164,676 | 166,843 | 172,062 | 178,656 | | 同比（%） | 8.52 | 2.02 | 1.32 | 3.13 | 3.83 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.88 | 0.90 | 0.91 | 0.94 | 0.98 | | P/E（A） | 9.00 | 8.82 | 8.71 | 8.45 | 8.13 | | P/E（H） | 6.07 | 5.95 | 5.88 | 5.70 | 5.49 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q1 2025 financial results, showing a slight decline in total revenue and net profit, while core profit experienced a marginal increase, indicating performance slightly below expectations [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 33.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.44% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 976 million yuan, down 9.64% year-on-year [1]. - Core profit reached 1.08 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, indicating resilience in core operations [1]. Group 2: Gas Sales and Market Dynamics - The company’s gas sales volume in Q1 2025 was 10.544 billion cubic meters, up 5.4% year-on-year, driven by a 34.5% increase in wholesale gas sales [2]. - Retail gas sales volume was 7.258 billion cubic meters, a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year, with residential gas sales growing by 1.1% [2]. - The company’s platform trading gas sales volume was 1.196 billion cubic meters, showing a minor decline of 1.4% year-on-year, while international trade volume increased by 1.21 billion cubic meters [2]. Group 3: LNG Processing and Energy Sales - The LNG processing volume at the Zhoushan receiving station reached 551,700 tons in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28.6% [3]. - The company’s comprehensive energy sales volume was 10.039 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [3]. - The company has 367 operational comprehensive energy projects with a total installed capacity of 6.25 GW, and 73 projects under construction with a capacity of 1.18 GW [3]. Group 4: Strategic Developments - The privatization of New World Energy is progressing steadily, with asset restructuring expected to enhance shareholder returns [4]. - The company has updated financial data and is advancing through regulatory approvals for the privatization process [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward due to delays in long-term resource availability and the impact of a warm winter on retail gas growth [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue for 2024, with a total revenue of 28.35 billion yuan, down 8.3% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.2% to 1.46 billion yuan. For Q1 2025, revenue rose by 9.5% to 7.51 billion yuan, but net profit fell by 15.5% to 230 million yuan [1][5]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company plans a cash dividend of 0.16 yuan per share for 2024, with a cash dividend ratio of approximately 31.6% [2]. - The sales volume growth for gas in 2024 slowed down, primarily due to a decrease in growth outside the Greater Bay Area. However, the Greater Bay Area maintained strong growth, with sales volumes of 5.74 billion cubic meters and 1.64 billion cubic meters for 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 6.6% and 25.1% [3]. Regional Performance - In the Greater Bay Area, city gas sales volumes were 1.37 billion cubic meters and 400 million cubic meters for 2024 and Q1 2025, with year-on-year growth of 9.5% and 10.9%, respectively. Other regions saw gas sales volumes of 2.14 billion cubic meters and 590 million cubic meters, with year-on-year growth of 3.1% and 4.3% [3]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The average selling price of pipeline gas decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, while the average procurement cost fell by 6.1%, leading to a 3.9 percentage point increase in gross margin for the city gas business, contributing to overall performance growth [4]. - The photovoltaic film business and gas engineering faced significant revenue and gross margin declines, with the photovoltaic film sales volume at 655 million square meters, down 2.5%, and revenue down 35% year-on-year, impacting total revenue by 6.6% [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.46 billion yuan, 1.61 billion yuan, and 1.86 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.51, 0.56, and 0.65 yuan. The current price corresponds to PE valuations of 13x, 11x, and 10x, maintaining a "buy" rating [5].

燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·燃气Ⅱ 关税引发经济衰退担忧美国气价大跌，关税 暂缓欧洲气价回升，国内气价平稳 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 风险提示：经济增速不及预期、极端天气、国际局势变化、安全经营风险。 2025 年 04 月 21 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 谷玥 执业证书：S0600524090002 guy@dwzq.com.cn 2025-04-14 《天气温暖&产量下降美国气价上 升，俄乌和谈推进欧洲气价下降；关 税影响有限》 2025-04-07 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 价格跟踪：关税引发经济衰退担忧美国气价大跌，关税暂缓欧洲气价回升，国 内气价平稳。截至 2025/04/17,美国 HH/欧洲 TTF/东亚 JKM/中国 LNG 出厂/中 国 LNG 到岸价周环比变动-20.6%/+6.8%/-4.1%/-0.5%/+9.7%至 0.8/3/3.1/3.1/3.1 元/方 ...

以下文章来源于智谷趋势Trend ，作者鹿鹭 申公豹 智谷趋势Trend . 新中产的首席财富顾问 作者： 鹿鹭 申公豹 来源：智谷趋势Trend（lD：yuanfangguanchaju） 涨价潮又来了，但这次不一样。 2025，一场史无前例的成本大挪移正在到来。 很难有人置身事外。 01 全国最有钱的城市深圳，最近打算让自来水涨价13.05%。 目前听证会还没开，不过方案一和方案二， 综合价格涨幅是一模一样的 。 就像成语里的猴 子，"朝三暮四"和"朝四暮三"的区别，或许就在于有没有让你选。 | 现行价格 | | | | 拟调整价格 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 目前 | 方案一 | | 方案二 | | | 用水类别 | 价格 | 拟调 | 调增额 | 拟调 | 调增额 | | | | 价格 | | 价格 | | | 1.居民生活用水 | | | | | | | (1)家庭户(m3/户 · 月) | | | | | | | 0-22(含) m3 | 2. 67 | 2. 67 | 0. 00 | 2. 94 | 0. 27 | | 22-30( ...