垃圾焚烧企业国补平均账期平稳，25Q3国补回款显著加速 1)国补欠款现状：欠款增幅放缓，账期维持2年左右。以全国性覆盖的垃圾焚烧企业绿色动力 （601330）、瀚蓝环境（600323）为例，24年国补欠款增速减缓，理论测算下国补账期维持在2年左 右。2)国补边际变化：25Q3回款显著加速，改善现金流&信用减值冲回。光大环境25年7-8月生物质国 补回款20.64亿元人民币，已超24年水平，25Q1-3瀚蓝国补回款2.45亿元，军信国补回款0.81亿元，三 峰、旺能、绿动等国补回款均显著加速。25Q3垃圾焚烧板块单季度经营性现金流净额6.33亿元，同比 +59%，环比+52%。25Q3垃圾焚烧板块单季度信用减值损失计提0.41亿元，同比-44%，较25Q1的同比 +41%和25Q2的同比+16%趋势显著逆转。其中，三峰、圣元、绿动25Q3存信用减值损失冲回。3)国补 回款率：国补回款率中枢显著上行。该行测算25Q1-3企业当期国补回款率约40~199%，均值约89%，较 24年均值39%显著上行。 可再生能源补贴基金或迎收支平衡，存量欠款有望逐步清缴 东吴证券发布研报称，国补回收加速带来的经营性现金流的改善将进 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [7] Core Insights - The report anticipates stable growth in hydropower and improvements in cash flow for green energy and environmental companies due to government subsidies and debt reduction policies [1][6] - The performance of thermal power companies is expected to improve in Q4 2025 despite some uncertainty due to impairment losses [2] - Hydropower generation has shown significant year-on-year growth, with expectations for increased profitability for major hydropower companies [3] - The renewable energy sector is experiencing growth in installed capacity, which supports an increase in generation, while the risk of impairment is expected to ease [4] - Natural gas production is on the rise, and cost reductions may boost demand in the coming years [5] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - In October and November 2025, thermal power generation increased by 7.3% and decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, respectively, with coal prices declining by 11.5% year-on-year [2] - The average price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal in Q4 2025 is projected to be 750 RMB per ton [2] Hydropower & Nuclear Power - Hydropower generation in October and November 2025 increased by 28.2% and 17.1% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The Three Gorges Dam's outflow increased significantly, and nuclear power generation also showed stable growth [3] Renewable Energy - From January to October 2025, wind and solar power generation increased by 7.6% and 23.2% year-on-year, respectively, with installed capacity growth supporting generation increases [4] - The utilization rates for wind and solar power were 96.4% and 94.8%, respectively, indicating a slight year-on-year improvement [4] Natural Gas - Natural gas production increased by 5.9% and 5.7% year-on-year in October and November 2025, while apparent consumption decreased by 1.3% [5] - The market anticipates a decline in international oil prices and domestic gas prices, which may support demand growth [5] Environmental Sector - The report highlights the positive impact of government subsidy repayments and pricing adjustments on the environmental sector's fundamentals [6] - The ongoing debt reduction policies are expected to enhance the financial performance of environmental companies [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [5]. Core Insights - The environmental sector is expected to see improvements in financial statements due to ongoing debt reduction actions and increased government subsidy payments [1]. - The water utility sector is experiencing a decrease in accounts receivable turnover days, indicating improved cash flow [2]. - The waste incineration sector has seen unexpected increases in government subsidy payments, leading to a positive cash flow outlook [3]. - The sanitation sector is also witnessing a decline in accounts receivable turnover days, although it faces credit impairment pressures [4]. Summary by Sections Environmental Sector - The environmental sector is benefiting from a cumulative issuance of 4 trillion yuan in special bonds aimed at debt reduction, with significant government subsidy payments received by various companies [1]. - Recommended high-dividend stocks include Huanlan Environment, Weiming Environmental, Junxin Co., Green Power, and China Everbright Environment [1][8]. Water Utility Sector - The accounts receivable turnover days for the water utility sector have been decreasing since 2025, with a notable drop to 39 days in Q3 2025, down 45 days year-on-year [2]. - Cash flow indicators have improved across most quarters, with Q3 2025 showing a net cash ratio of 1.7 and operating cash flow to revenue ratio of 0.25, both increasing year-on-year [2]. Waste Incineration Sector - The accounts receivable turnover days for waste incineration have turned negative for the first time since 2023, indicating a decrease in receivables due to better-than-expected government subsidy payments [3]. - Cash flow metrics have also improved, with net cash ratios increasing in Q2 and Q3 2025 [3]. Sanitation Sector - The sanitation sector has seen a reduction in accounts receivable turnover days to 26 days in Q3 2025, down 12 days year-on-year [4]. - While cash flow has improved in Q3 2025, credit impairment remains a concern, particularly in the fourth quarter [4].

Summary of the Conference Call for Guangda Environment Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the waste-to-energy sector, specifically focusing on Guangda Environment's performance and outlook within this industry [2][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Improvement in Waste-to-Energy Sector**: The waste-to-energy sector has shown significant improvements in quality and efficiency, with a decrease in the proportion of income from the "surge" end. Revenue from external electricity fees and heating has increased, indicating a potential upward revision in operating cash flow in the long term [2][3][5]. 2. **Operating Cash Flow Projections**: For 2024, the total operating cash flow for the sector is expected to approach 16 billion RMB. Without volume increases, improvements from national subsidies and efficiency enhancements could raise this figure by over 20% to around 20 billion RMB [2][5]. 3. **Dividend Capacity**: The potential dividend capacity for Guangda Environment could exceed 120%, significantly higher than the industry average dividend rate of approximately 40%. This indicates substantial room for dividend increases [2][3][5]. 4. **Valuation Metrics**: Guangda Environment's valuation on the Hong Kong stock market is currently at 0.6 times the price-to-book ratio, with a static dividend yield of about 5%. Improvements in national subsidies and operational cash flow levels could lead to an increase in valuation [2][6]. 5. **A-Share Issuance**: The company plans to issue up to 800 million RMB shares, representing 11.52% of the expanded total share capital. The funds raised will support core business development and working capital without negatively impacting cash flow value [2][8]. 6. **Free Cash Flow Status**: In 2024, the company is expected to achieve positive free cash flow for the first time, reaching 4 billion RMB, a significant increase from the previous year. This growth is attributed to reduced capital expenditures and accelerated national subsidy reimbursements [2][9]. 7. **Impact of National Subsidies**: By the third quarter of 2025, national subsidy reimbursements are expected to accelerate significantly, providing strong support for the company's operating cash flow [2][10]. 8. **Capital Expenditure Trends**: Future capital expenditures are projected to remain at a low level of around 4 to 5 billion RMB over the next two years, supporting the upward trend in operating cash flow [2][11]. 9. **Dividend Capability Post-Issue**: Even with a potential 12% increase in share capital, the company's dividend capability is expected to remain stable or improve, supported by free cash flow in the coming years [2][12]. 10. **Expansion into Heating Business**: Guangda Environment is actively expanding its heating business, with expectations to achieve over 7 million tons of heating volume in 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 30% [2][3][13]. 11. **International Market Strategy**: The company adopts a cautious approach to overseas expansion, ensuring capital expenditures remain controllable and requiring a minimum internal rate of return (IRR) of 10% for projects [2][15]. 12. **Prospects in Uzbekistan and Indonesia**: Projects in Uzbekistan and Indonesia are expected to yield favorable returns, with the Uzbekistan project anticipated to have an IRR of around 11% and the Indonesian market offering significant revenue potential due to higher waste heat values [2][16]. 13. **Future Performance Outlook**: The company aims for growth through internal efficiency improvements and overseas expansion, with a projected net profit of 3.576 billion HKD for the full year 2025, corresponding to a PE ratio of 8.5 times and a PB ratio of 0.6 times [2][17]. 14. **Valuation Comparison**: Guangda Environment's valuation is currently at a critical revaluation stage, with potential for further reflection of its true value as cash flow and dividend capabilities improve [2][18]. Other Important Insights - The company emphasizes the importance of governance, project selection standards, and the gradual release of overseas market potential as key factors for future growth [2][4]. - The focus on enhancing the profit margin per ton of waste through the transition to a B-end heating model indicates a strategic shift that could significantly impact profitability [2][14].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Xingzheng International maintains a "buy" rating for Datang New Energy (01798), indicating that the company is currently undervalued and that policy support for the green electricity industry is expected to drive valuation recovery [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Datang New Energy achieved operating revenue of 6.845 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.30% or 219 million yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.688 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.37% or 77 million yuan [2] - The company reported operating cash flow of 3.122 billion yuan, a significant increase of 76.05% year-on-year, and a financing cost of 2.48%, down 36 basis points from the beginning of the year [2] - For Q2 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 3.286 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.99% or 186 million yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 667 million yuan, down 4.26% or 30 million yuan [2] Group 2: Capacity and Generation - As of the end of H1 2025, the company's installed capacity was 19.07 GW, with wind and solar capacities of 14.52 GW and 4.55 GW respectively, compared to 13.11 GW and 2.44 GW in the same period last year [3] - The company’s wind and solar utilization hours were 1138 hours and 542 hours, showing a decrease of 29 hours and 228 hours year-on-year, with total generation of 16.493 billion kWh and 2.383 billion kWh, representing increases of 8.16% and 26.97% respectively [3] Group 3: Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, the total net profit was 1.909 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.66% or 72 million yuan, with net profit per kWh at 0.101 yuan, down 0.015 yuan year-on-year [4] - For Q2, the company’s wind and solar generation was 7.572 billion kWh and 1.399 billion kWh, with revenue per kWh at 0.366 yuan, down 0.018 yuan year-on-year [4] - The accounts receivable and bills balance at the end of H1 2025 was 24.371 billion yuan, accounting for 20.93% of total assets and 62.79% of net assets, indicating a need to monitor cash flow recovery from national subsidies [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Xingsheng International maintains an "overweight" rating for Datang New Energy (01798), indicating that the company is currently undervalued and that policy support for the green electricity industry is expected to drive a recovery in company valuation [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Datang New Energy reported operating revenue of 6.845 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.30% or 219 million yuan, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.688 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.37% or 77 million yuan [2] - The company achieved an operating cash flow of 3.122 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 76.05%, and reduced financing costs to 2.48%, down 36 basis points from the beginning of the year [2] - In Q2 alone, the company generated operating revenue of 3.286 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.99% or 186 million yuan, with a net profit of 667 million yuan, down 4.26% or 30 million yuan [2] Capacity and Generation - As of the end of H1 2025, the company's installed capacity reached 19.07 GW, with wind and solar capacities of 14.52 GW and 4.55 GW respectively, compared to 13.11 GW and 2.44 GW in the same period last year [3] - The utilization hours for wind and solar power were 1138 hours and 542 hours, showing a year-on-year decrease of 29 hours and 228 hours respectively, while the total power generation was 16.493 billion kWh and 2.383 billion kWh, reflecting increases of 8.16% and 26.97% [3] Revenue and Profitability - The total electricity sales revenue for the first half of the year was 6.778 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.04%, with wind and solar electricity sales revenues of 6.145 billion yuan and 634 million yuan, increasing by 2.09% and 13.18% respectively [3] - The operating profit for wind and solar was 4.691 billion yuan and 187 million yuan, showing year-on-year decreases of 5.59% and 29.01% [3] - The net profit for the first half of the year was 1.909 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.66% or 72 million yuan, with a net profit per kWh of 0.101 yuan, down 0.015 yuan per kWh year-on-year [4] Accounts Receivable - As of the end of H1 2025, the company's accounts receivable and bills amounted to 24.371 billion yuan, accounting for 20.93% of total assets and 62.79% of net assets, indicating a need to monitor cash flow recovery from national subsidies [4]

Summary of the Conference Call for Everbright Environment Company Overview - **Company**: Everbright Environment - **Period**: First half of 2025 Key Points Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by approximately 1 billion HKD in the first half of 2025, primarily due to the appreciation of RMB against HKD and impairment of fixed assets in hazardous waste business, although core profitability remained stable and showed slight improvement [2][3] - Free cash flow was positive in the first half of 2025, benefiting from reduced capital expenditures, but national subsidy recovery was lower than the same period last year [2][4] - The company plans to maintain a stable dividend, with discussions ongoing among management, including the CEO and CFO, to formulate an actionable plan [2][5][6] National Subsidy Recovery - Progress was noted in national subsidies, with some previously unlisted projects now included in the social list, potentially converting to receivables within the year [2][8] - The Ministry of Finance is raising 200 billion RMB to address subsidy arrears, which could positively impact cash recovery [2][8] Capital Expenditure - Total capital expenditure for 2025 is expected to be controlled between 4 to 5 billion HKD, influenced by the progress of international projects, particularly in Uzbekistan [2][10] - The water and green environmental sectors are projected to have capital expenditures of approximately 1.5 billion HKD and 450 to 500 million HKD, respectively [11] Uzbekistan Projects - Two new projects in Uzbekistan commenced in April 2025, with a total investment of 2.16 billion RMB, benefiting from higher processing and electricity fees compared to domestic rates [12][13] - The projects operate under a 100% guaranteed model, ensuring payment even if actual processing volume is below capacity [12][13] Waste Treatment Sector - The hazardous waste sector underwent fixed asset impairment in the first half of 2025 to stabilize annual performance, with processing prices showing some recovery but not significantly improved [2][9] Operational Efficiency and New Revenue Streams - The company is expanding into kitchen waste treatment and heating services to diversify income sources, with a focus on developing the IDC business in collaboration with major operators [17][18] - The heating business aims to increase output from 6 million tons in 2024 to at least 7 million tons in 2025, as it has a higher profit margin than power generation [17][18] Reducing Dependence on National Subsidies - Measures to reduce reliance on national subsidies include adjusting processing fees and developing new business lines such as heating and kitchen waste treatment [21] - The company aims to eliminate dependence on national subsidies by 2030 through various operational improvements and revenue diversification strategies [21] Shareholder Engagement - The new chairman values shareholder feedback and incorporates it into decision-making processes, ensuring ongoing communication with investors [25] Additional Important Information - The company is currently working on eight power network construction projects with a total investment of approximately 1.4 billion RMB to enhance operational efficiency and support new business developments [20] - The company is actively pursuing ABN or ABS financing models, contingent on stable national subsidy recovery [15]