港股公司报告 | 公司点评 成本方面，上半年公司经营开支为 95.67 亿元，同比增长 10.8%，主要由于 风电和光伏分部的折旧摊销受新项目转固的影响增加、以及新项目投产使 得员工成本等增加影响。综合来看，公司实现持续经营业务经营利润 67.30 亿元，同比下降 6.2%。分业务来看，上半年公司风电分部经营利润为 62.13 亿元，同比下降 10.5%，主要系利用小时下降、电价下降等影响；光伏分 部经营利润为 5.50 亿元，同比增长 51.1%，主要系装机容量增加带动发电 量增加。 龙源电力（00916） 证券研究报告 新能源电量持续增长，拟中期分红 事件： 公司发布 2025 年中期业绩。上半年公司实现营业收入 156.57 亿元，同比 下降 18.6%；实现归母净利润 35.19 亿元，同比下降 14.4%。公司中期拟每 股派发现金红利 0.1 元（税前），分红总额约 8.36 亿元（税前）。 点评 H1 净新增新能源装机 2.1GW，控股装机已达 43.2GW 上半年公司净新增新能源控股装机容量 2,053.54 兆瓦，其中新增风电控股 装机容量 986.95 兆瓦、光伏控股装机容量 1,096.5 ...

机构：华泰证券 研究员：王玮嘉/黄波/李雅琳/胡知 光大环境发布中期业绩，2025 年H1 实现营业收入143.04 亿港元，同比-8.4%；归母净利润22.07 亿港 元，同比-10.1%。归母净利润略低于我们预期（预期22.58 亿港元），主要原因包括：1）人民币升值致 人民币负债产生汇兑损失4.28 亿港元（1H24 汇兑收益2.31 亿港元）；2）若干危废及固废项目停运，确 认物业、厂房及设备耗损1.13 亿港元。公司派发中期股息9.21 亿港元，对应DPS 15 港仙（1H24 14 港 仙），分红比例41.8%（1H2435.0%）。我们认为，公司运营收入持续增长，自由现金流具备提升空 间，中期股息同比提升1 港仙释放积极信号，有望迎来价值重估。维持买入评级。 1H25 发电量/供热量同比增长9/32%，精细管理有效降本1H25 公司垃圾处理量近2900 万吨 维持盈利预测，目标价5.34 港元 根据在建工程情况，下调建造服务收入预测，预计2025-2027 年归母净利润为33.92、35.39、36.87 亿港 元，下调幅度3%、4%、2%，对应EPS 为0.55、0.58、0.60 港元。可比 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月24日 风险提示：电量下降；电价下滑；新能源项目投运不及预期。 投资建议：由于电价下降影响，下调盈利预测。预计 2025-2027 年公司 归母净利润分别为 67.7/70.9/74.5 亿元（原预测值为 71.4/74.7/78.5 亿元），同比增长 6.7%/4.7%/5.1%；EPS 分别为 0.81/0.85/0.89 元， 当前股价对应 PE 为 20.5/19.6/18.6X。维持"优于大市"评级。 | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 37,642 | 37,070 | 36,656 | 38,338 | 39,853 | | (+/-%) | -5.6% | -1.5% | -1.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | | 净利润(百万元) | 6249 | 6345 | 6770 | 7091 | 7453 | | (+/-%) | 22.2% | 1.5% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5 ...

证券研究报告 光大环境 (257 HK) 港股通 H1 发电量同比增长 9%，中期股息提 升 1 港仙 | 华泰研究 | | --- | 2025 年 8 月 24 日│中国香港 废物管理 李雅琳 研究员 生汇兑损失 4.28 亿港元（1H24 汇兑收益 2.31 亿港元）；2）若干危废及固 废项目停运，确认物业、厂房及设备耗损 1.13 亿港元。公司派发中期股息 9.21 亿港元，对应 DPS 15 港仙（1H24 14 港仙），分红比例 41.8%（1H24 35.0%）。我们认为，公司运营收入持续增长，自由现金流具备提升空间， 1H25 发电量/供热量同比增长 9/32%，精细管理有效降本 1H25 公司垃圾处理量近 2900 万吨（yoy+2%），发电量 148 亿度（yoy+9%）， 供热量 380 万吨（yoy+32%）。分板块看，1）环保能源：垃圾发电入炉吨 发 460 度（yoy+3%），垃圾发电项目综合厂用电率约 14.7%，同比下降 0.3 个百分点，2 个垃圾发电项目获批调增处理费。2）绿色环保：供热量、发 电量均有提升，生物质燃料收购单价同比下降 8%，绿证交易量较 2024 年 全年 ...

数据中最具战略价值的突破，在于新能源发电量占比接近总量的四分之一。这一比例背后，是风电、光 伏装机规模持续领跑全球的硬实力：截至2025年7月，全国风电装机达4.04亿千瓦、光伏发电装机5.36亿 千瓦，生物质发电装机0.44亿千瓦。更值得关注的是技术创新对产业形态的重塑——内蒙古兴安盟300 万千瓦风电项目实现单机容量与总规模双料全球第一；三峡集团库布其200万千瓦光伏治沙项目开创"板 上发电、板下修复"的生态治理新模式；全球首个商用兆瓦级钙钛矿光伏项目在鄂尔多斯并网，标志着 中国在下一代光伏技术领域占据制高点。 融科银行：万亿千瓦时用电量背后的中国能源转型密码 融科银行RocBank讯2025年8月，国家能源局发布的数据引发全球关注：7月中国全社会用电量首次突破 万亿千瓦时大关，达1.02万亿千瓦时，同比增长8.6%。融科银行RocBank认为这一数字不仅刷新了中国 能源消费的历史纪录，更成为全球首个单月用电量突破万亿千瓦时的国家，较十年前用电规模翻番，相 当于东盟十国全年用电量总和。在高温天气与工业生产双轮驱动的表象之下，更值得关注的是新能源占 比跃升至近四分之一的深层变革——中国能源绿色转型正以惊人的 ...

数据一出来，世界那种关注，电表像是全都指向中国，7月用电量，10226亿千瓦时，这个数一年多八点六，十年前一看，直接翻了一倍多，数据不再冷冷的 统计，城市、农村、制造、服务，现场的气息全都能感受到，全球第一次，单月用电量过了万亿千瓦时，镜头拉近一点，里面高温，工业慢慢回暖，新能源 那部分越来越多，三种因素一起发生作用。 数据背后的线索，三条比较清楚，需求端那种释放很明显，供给端效率更高了，高温天，空调、制冷之类的用电变成常态，制造业产出也在往上走，新能源 占比，风电、光电、生物质发电这种，七月贡献差不多四分之一，能源转型不是说说而已，已经在数据里体现出来了，区域差异也是一条，河南、陕西、山 东这些地儿，居民用电量同比增幅超三成，经济活动、生活消费，两轮一起拉动。 AI时代，电力角色新鲜，算力需求一下子上去，数据中心、智能制造这些场景，对电力需求成了经济转型新引擎，中国现在算是全球AI算力的主要承载 体，发电能力、电力成本竞争力直接变成产业竞争力，电力就是新生产力的底座，高端制造、智能服务、全球竞争，有了电力支撑。 宏观微观，一起连带着释放，电力环境更稳，能源组合更清洁，企业成本慢慢降下去，投资信心也更足了，经 ...

Core Insights - In July, China's total electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time, reaching 1.02 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, marking a significant milestone in the power industry and reflecting the vitality of the Chinese economy [2] - The increase in electricity consumption was driven by multiple rounds of high temperatures and stable industrial production, with urban and rural residential electricity consumption reaching 203.9 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 18.0% [2] - The share of renewable energy is undergoing a historic transformation, with the proportion of wind, solar, and biomass power generation rapidly increasing to nearly one-quarter of the total, indicating accelerated progress in China's energy transition [2] Industry Developments - Electricity is becoming a core competitive force in the Fourth Industrial Revolution, with the consensus in the global AI industry that "the end of computing power is electricity" [3] - The "East Data West Computing" strategy is steadily advancing, and new policies are being implemented to meet the growing electricity demand from emerging scenarios such as computing centers and smart factories [3] - The monthly electricity consumption surpassing 1 trillion kilowatt-hours not only signifies China's leading energy supply capacity globally but also indicates a strategic advantage in infrastructure construction for future industrial upgrades [3]

Summary of the Conference Call for Guangda Environment Industry Overview - Guangda Environment operates in the waste incineration power generation sector, with a daily operational capacity of nearly 140,000 tons, leading the industry in scale [2][3] - The waste incineration power generation industry expanded rapidly from 2015 to 2020, reaching a national daily capacity of 1.1 million tons with a utilization rate of approximately 70% [2][6] Key Points and Arguments - **Financial Performance**: Guangda Environment is expected to achieve its first positive free cash flow since its listing in 2024, which may lead to an increase in dividend payout ratio [2][4] - **Capital Expenditure**: The company's capital expenditure has decreased from a peak of 20 billion to 5 billion in 2024, with further reductions anticipated, contributing to financial stability [2][6] - **Water Treatment Segment**: Guangda Water has a sewage treatment capacity exceeding 6 million tons per day, with treatment prices rising from 1.22 RMB to 1.70 RMB from 2017 to 2022. However, the collection rate has declined due to local government financial issues [2][7] - **Biomass Power Generation**: The biomass power generation projects benefit from national subsidies, with Guangdong province having allocated part of its owed funds, improving profitability [2][8] - **Accounts Receivable**: The company has high accounts receivable, primarily due to the high costs associated with biomass power generation, which relies on national subsidies. Slow reimbursement of these subsidies is a reason for the company's low valuation [2][10][11] Risks and Future Outlook - **Earnings Forecast**: The company anticipates a slight decline in mid-2025 earnings due to reduced construction revenue, impairment operations, and foreign exchange losses. However, cash flow is expected to improve [2][12] - **Asset Quality**: The company has over 10 billion in accounts receivable, with total liabilities nearing 100 billion, indicating pressure on absolute value metrics [2][10] - **Regional Distribution**: Guangda Environment's projects are concentrated in economically developed regions, with a capacity utilization rate exceeding 90%, close to 100% [2][14] Additional Insights - **International Expansion**: The company is actively expanding into overseas markets, securing two waste incineration projects in Vietnam and Uzbekistan, each with an investment of approximately 1 billion RMB [2][5] - **Government Support**: The central government has budgeted approximately 120 billion RMB for renewable energy subsidies, indicating ongoing support for the sector, although it may not fully meet all funding needs [2][20] - **Collaboration with Local Governments**: Guangda Environment is working with local governments in cities like Tianjin, Hangzhou, and Suzhou to promote collaborative projects between IDC and waste incineration, although progress may be slow [2][21]

Group 1: China's Green Energy Transition - China is leading the global green and low-carbon energy transition, with significant growth in renewable energy installations in 2025 [1][30] - By the end of June 2025, China's renewable energy installed capacity reached 2.159 billion kilowatts, accounting for approximately 59.2% of total installed capacity [10][21] - In the first half of 2025, renewable energy installations totaled 268 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 99.3%, with wind and solar power contributing significantly [9][20] Group 2: Renewable Energy Cost Competitiveness - The International Renewable Energy Agency reported that renewable energy helped avoid $467 billion in fossil fuel expenditures globally in 2024, confirming its cost-effectiveness [3][25] - The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for new utility-scale onshore wind projects was $0.034 per kWh, making it the cheapest renewable energy source [3][26] - The total installed cost (TIC) for solar photovoltaic technology is projected to drop to $388 per kilowatt in the next five years [3][26] Group 3: Global Energy Market Restructuring - The global energy market is undergoing significant restructuring due to rising geopolitical risks and the need for energy security, with countries reevaluating their energy strategies [2][5] - Six structural changes are identified as reshaping the energy market, including the impact of Middle Eastern conflicts on oil prices and the push for LNG diversification [5][6] - The International Energy Agency forecasts a slowdown in global natural gas demand growth in 2025, followed by an acceleration in 2026 [7][8] Group 4: Energy Storage and Technological Advancements - China's new energy storage industry is transitioning from early commercialization to large-scale development, with significant increases in installed capacity [18][19] - The average storage duration for new energy storage projects in China has increased to 2.3 hours, reflecting advancements in technology [19][34] - The integration of artificial intelligence in energy management is expected to enhance efficiency while also increasing energy consumption [6][27] Group 5: Future Projections and Challenges - By the end of 2025, non-fossil energy generation capacity in China is expected to reach approximately 240 million kilowatts, accounting for about 61% of total installed capacity [20][21] - The rapid expansion of renewable energy brings challenges such as volatility in generation, insufficient storage facilities, and limited grid capacity [16][31] - The report suggests building a multi-layered, diversified energy supply system to mitigate energy security risks [17][32]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Shandong Province New Energy Grid Price Marketization Reform Implementation Plan" aims to establish a comprehensive system for new energy participation in electricity market transactions, enhancing market efficiency in resource allocation [1] Pricing Mechanism - The plan stipulates that all new energy projects (wind and solar) will participate in the electricity market, with grid prices determined through market transactions [1] - A price difference settlement mechanism will be established for electricity outside the market, where the grid company will handle the price difference, which will be shared among all users [1][2] - For existing renewable projects before June 1, 2025, the mechanism price is set at 0.3949 yuan per kilowatt-hour (including tax), with a cap on the mechanism electricity volume linked to existing policies [2] Market Trading Mechanism - The plan emphasizes the connection between medium-to-long-term market prices and primary energy costs, allowing for flexible contract terms based on actual demand [3] - New energy projects can participate in spot market trading, with all electricity settled at spot market prices [3] - Capacity compensation for generation units will be based on the total demand of the Shandong power grid, ensuring effective capacity is compensated according to established standards [3] Risk Prevention Mechanism - A comprehensive electricity market information disclosure system will be established, covering various market segments and time dimensions to enhance transparency [3] - The retail electricity market will provide standardized pricing options based on actual consumption patterns, allowing users to choose from various retail packages [4] - The reform is expected to have no impact on residential and agricultural electricity prices, while commercial users may see stable or slightly reduced prices in the first year [4]