Core Insights - Guangzhou's real estate market is transitioning to a "mainly existing homes" phase, with existing home inventory surpassing pre-sold homes for the first time, indicating a significant structural change in the market [1][3][4] Market Trends - As of mid-2025, the available inventory of residential properties in Guangzhou is 14.47 million square meters, with existing homes accounting for 7.42 million square meters (51.3%) and pre-sold homes at 7.05 million square meters (48.7%) [3] - Nationwide, existing home sales area reached 163 million square meters in mid-2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, while pre-sold home sales decreased by 10.6% to 296 million square meters [3] Consumer Preferences - The preference for existing homes is driven by the "seeing is believing" principle, as buyers seek certainty in delivery and wish to avoid risks associated with pre-sold homes, such as project delays and quality issues [3][4] Regional Supply - Existing home projects are now available across all districts in Guangzhou, including key areas like Tianhe and Huangpu, with some projects already in the delivery phase, allowing for immediate occupancy [4] Policy and Market Dynamics - The increase in existing home inventory has sparked discussions on optimizing the pre-sale system, as current practices place significant risk on buyers [5][6] - Experts suggest that a balanced risk-sharing mechanism is needed, where the risks associated with home purchases are more evenly distributed between developers and buyers [5] Implementation of New Sales Models - Cities like Xinyang have begun implementing a "pay and receive" model for existing home sales, with over 30 provinces in China introducing related policies since late 2022 [6] - Guangzhou is considering pilot programs for existing home sales in areas with high inventory, while also addressing the need for developers to adapt to changing market conditions [6]

文 ｜ 陈聪 张全国 刘河维 李俊波 2 0 2 4年，中央明确要求"改革商品房预售制度"（详见《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革、推进 中国式现代化的决定》），郑州、深圳、北京、三亚等地也纷纷开始试验出让现房销售的地块。我 们认为，推广现房销售符合时代的要求。改革虽然影响开发商的周转速度，但更有助于严控供给、 稳定房价、提升品质，也有助于在开发能力和融资渠道上有优势的发展商。 ▍ 供求关系重大变化，控量保价理所当然。 现房销售和期房销售的开发模式完全不同，前者依赖视实景呈现，讲究所见即所得，后者则侧重 样板区域打造和渠道引流。现房时代的竞争要素权重也不同。总体而言，所有涉及产品营造能力 的环节都更加重要了。拿地需更加慎重，资金成本管控也更加重要，产品溢价能力更成为决定性 因素。房地产开发的关键，从低价快速获得资源，转向满足消费者的需求。不过，所有和开发速 度相关的要素（如建设周期、资金周转率等）重要性都下降了。 ▍ 风险因素： 预售制的存在，初衷是为了增加供给，快速改善居民居住环境，客观上加快了开发商的周转，助 力发展商规模壮大。当前，房地产市场的供求关系已经发生根本变化，预售制生存的市场基础 （供不应求）已 ...

文 ｜ 陈聪 张全国 刘河维 李俊波 ▍ 现房时代可能重塑开发流程，也可能推动开发行业竞争格局重塑。 现房销售和期房销售的开发模式完全不同，前者依赖视实景呈现，讲究所见即所得，后者则侧重样板区域打造和渠道引流。现房时代的竞 争要素权重也不同。总体而言，所有涉及产品营造能力的环节都更加重要了。拿地需更加慎重，资金成本管控也更加重要，产品溢价能力 更成为决定性因素。房地产开发的关键，从低价快速获得资源，转向满足消费者的需求。不过，所有和开发速度相关的要素（如建设周 期、资金周转率等）重要性都下降了。 2 0 2 4年，中央明确要求"改革商品房预售制度"（详见《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的决定》），郑州、深圳、 北京、三亚等地也纷纷开始试验出让现房销售的地块。我们认为，推广现房销售符合时代的要求。改革虽然影响开发商的周转速度，但更有 助于严控供给、稳定房价、提升品质，也有助于在开发能力和融资渠道上有优势的发展商。 ▍ 供求关系重大变化，控量保价理所当然。 预售制的存在，初衷是为了增加供给，快速改善居民居住环境，客观上加快了开发商的周转，助力发展商规模壮大。当前，房地产市场的 供求关系已经发生根 ...