来看海南楼市新政。 8月15日，海南省发布9条楼市新政，其中在需求端提出，取消普通住宅和非普通住宅标准、支持多孩家庭购房、支持居民换购改善住房、支持引进人才申 领购房及住房租赁补贴等，多方面释放并满足引进人才和本地居民家庭住房需要。 业内人士认为，本次海南楼市政策优化从供给和需求两端进行调整，其中，提升对多孩家庭购房的支持力度，强化对引进人才的购房、租房支持，有利于 需求进一步释放，预计未来随着政策落地落实，将对海南房地产市场回稳起到一定积极效果。 海南取消普通住宅和非普通住宅标准 中指研究院政策研究总监陈文静指出，优化多孩家庭住房套数认定，给予信贷支持，有助于降低多孩家庭的购房成本，释放购房需求。持续为引进人才发 放购房补贴，并明确对租赁保障性租赁住房的给予住房租赁补贴，进一步降低人才购房、租房压力。满足条件的购房者给予个税退税优惠，继续落实此前 全国性政策。取消普宅标准主要影响房企的土地增值税计算，对于二手房交易无直接影响。 在供给端，新政提出，支持盘活存量房地产用地和用房。一是加大专项债、公积金增值收益等政策工具支持力度，对收购存量商品房用作保障性住房、公 共租赁住房以及保障性租赁住房等方面提出支持政策 ...

7月深圳楼市表现分化，新房成交量下降，二手房成交量则继续增长。 8月1日，深圳贝壳研究院最新发布的数据显示，7月深圳新房住宅成交量下降18.7%，二手房住宅成交量增长 3.4%。 数据显示，7月深圳新房共有14个项目取得批售，合计供应新房6405套，其中住宅5398套，环比增长 252.6%。7月房企推盘积极性明显上升，令新房供应总量达到年内新高。不过，新房住宅成交2664套，环比 下降18.7%。深圳贝壳研究院认为，7月是楼市传统销售淡季，市场存在观望的情绪；另一方面，受雷雨天气 影响，置业者看房、成交热情下降。不过，个别项目成交热度高，人才房福田安居景贤阁成为深圳2025年下 半年首个"日光"项目。 目前，越来越多城市开始探索现房销售的模式。在最近的楼市交易数据中，现房成交的变化值得关注。深圳中 原研究中心的统计数据显示，7月深圳新房住宅预售成交1441套，环比下滑24.1%，套数为近17个月最低， 现售成交则达到1223套。从月度走势图可见，从1月开始现房成交套数与占比整体呈波动上升态势。1月现房 成交占比为22%，6月的成交占比达到42%。 记者在深圳罗湖区走访时发现，一些新房去化周期拉长，部分预售楼 ...

深圳中原研究中心最新公布的数据显示，今年上半年深圳一手住宅共网签21868套，其中预售住宅成交 15101套，同比增长24.4%，环比下滑41.6%；现房住宅6767套，占比30.9%。不过，从月度走势图可 见，从1月开始现房成交套数与占比整体呈波动上升态势。1月现房成交占比为22%，6月的成交占比达 到42%，成交套数也在6月达到上半年的峰值。 一般而言，现房销售是指房地产开发企业将已竣工验收合格、具备法定交付条件并可直接办理产权登记 的商品房向市场出售的行为。购房者在交易完成后，即可获得房屋的实际占有和使用权，通常能迅速完 成产权转移。 "这个项目现在现房交楼，所见即所得，这样看了再买心里也踏实。"深圳罗湖区一处新房项目的销售经 理表示。 目前，越来越多城市开始探索现房销售的模式。在最近的楼市交易数据中，现房成交的变化值得关注。 记者在深圳罗湖、龙岗区走访时发现，一些新房去化周期拉长，部分预售楼盘随着时间推移进入现售阶 段。"我们项目开盘超过两年时间了，现在剩下的房源可以即买即住，价格也比之前有所优惠。"在罗湖 莲塘片区一处新房项目，销售人员对记者表示。 近年来，多地积极探索推行现房销售，相关配套支持政策 ...

时隔十年，靠现房还能赤手空拳拿下市场吗？ 坪山神盘 坪山中心即将上新，老业主是否会被背刺？ 作为坪山地标性综合体六和城的二期，最近位于坪山中心的臻文府再次有很快入市的动静。 据了解，项目即将以现房的姿态入市，共520套住宅，户型面积段59-132平，吹风参考均价3.5万/平，展厅、样板间已经开放，转介渠道也在推送了。 实地考察，现房的状态完成度已经很高，成熟的商业是一路之隔的益田假日世界，可选的教育资源有六联小学，东北师范大学附属学校，深圳市坪山实验 学校。 对比深圳的各大关键片区地段的典型臻文府虽然不算起眼，但也是坪山区域的网红项目了。 曾经数次吹风入市，却一再延期，被市场戏称为"坪山最惨神盘"。 2024年10月项目就被纳入深圳当年四季度的新房供应计划中，并且市场很快传出样板间开放的消息，吹风同年11月底推出。 | 深圳市2024年第四季度计划预售商品房情况 | | --- | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 单位:平方米、套) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of Q2 2025, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, with a growth rate 0.6 percentage points higher than the end of the previous year [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that while real estate sales area and prices are still declining, the overall real estate market is moving towards stabilization, with a reduction in inventory for four consecutive months [1] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized the importance of promoting a stable and healthy development of the real estate market, urging local governments to implement precise policies [2] Real Estate Loan Statistics - As of the end of Q2 2025, the balance of real estate development loans was 13.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, with an increase of 292.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year [1] - The balance of personal housing loans was 37.74 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, but the growth rate was 1.2 percentage points higher than at the end of the previous year, with an increase of 51 billion yuan in the first half of the year [1] Market Trends and Company Performance - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with improved funding sources for real estate companies and ongoing debt restructuring efforts [2] - Companies like Sunac, R&F, and others are accelerating their debt restructuring processes, which is seen as a critical step for distressed firms [2] - China Jinmao reported a signed sales amount of 15.6 billion yuan in June 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.29% [5] Company-Specific Updates - Vanke Enterprises reported nearly 38 billion yuan in revenue and over 35 billion yuan in sales for Q1 2025, with a repayment rate exceeding 100% [4] - China Resources Land achieved a total contract sales amount of approximately 234.5 billion yuan in June 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 26.7% [4] - Yuexiu Property's cumulative contract sales for the first half of 2025 amounted to approximately 61.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 11% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution and current state of the real estate market in China, particularly focusing on the shift from pre-sale to current sale models, highlighting the challenges and potential benefits of each system [1][5][7]. Group 1: Historical Context - The pre-sale model, created by Ho Ying Tung in the 1950s, significantly contributed to the prosperity of Hong Kong's real estate market [1]. - From 2017 to 2021, the real estate industry experienced rapid growth, with new home sales reaching nearly 1.8 billion square meters in 2021, marking a historical peak [1]. - In 2022, the market began to decline, leading to an increase in the proportion of pre-sale homes, with the first five months of 2025 showing a new high of 35.6% for current home sales since 2007 [1][3]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - The current environment has led to increased calls for current home sales, as many consumers express dissatisfaction with the pre-sale model due to concerns over delivery and quality [3][4]. - The People's Bank of China and other regulatory bodies are introducing policies to stabilize the market, including measures to support financing for real estate development [3][8]. Group 3: Challenges and Considerations - The article emphasizes that the core issue is not merely the choice between pre-sale and current sale but ensuring the delivery and quality of homes [5][6]. - The current economic climate poses significant challenges for developers, many of whom are struggling to complete projects, which complicates the transition to a current sale model [5][7]. - While some cities are moving towards current sales, the overall industry adjustment is still ongoing, and a hasty shift could exacerbate existing problems [7][9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Several regions, including Guangdong and Anhui, are piloting current home sales, with some cities like Xinyang planning to fully implement this model by 2025 [8][9]. - Developers are encouraged to adapt to the changing market by offering current or near-current home options, as seen with companies like Zhongkun Real Estate [9][10]. - The article concludes that while current home sales may become dominant in the long term, the timing and method of implementation will vary by city, requiring careful consideration to ensure consumer benefits [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Hangzhou real estate market remains hot, particularly in the land market, with residential land sales ranking first nationwide. The second half of the year will see significant developments, including the launch of high-priced projects, affordable housing, and the release of previously restricted properties into the secondary market [1] Group 1: Land Market and High-End Projects - Nearly 20 districts in Hangzhou set new land price records in the first half of the year, with three new residential land kings established [3][4] - At least 15 high-rise residential properties priced over 10 million yuan are expected to enter the market in the second half, with the highest average price projected at around 120,000 yuan per square meter [3][4] - The first unrestricted high-end project, Aoyin Mingcui, is set to launch in July with prices between 85,000 to 90,000 yuan per square meter, totaling 20 to 30 million yuan [3][4] Group 2: Second-Hand Housing Market - In the first half of the year, second-hand home transactions reached 48,926 units, the highest in four years, but the market shows signs of fatigue with a 30% drop in June compared to March [6][7] - The second-hand market faces pressure from new homes and a wave of deliveries, with over 84,000 new homes expected to be delivered by 2025, half of which will occur in the second half of this year [7] - The first batch of five-year restricted properties is expected to be released in September, which may impact the second-hand market dynamics [7] Group 3: Affordable Housing - The launch of new affordable housing projects is anticipated, with around 12,000 units planned for 2024-2025, targeting urban residents with housing difficulties [8][9] - Affordable housing prices are expected to be around 50% of the market price for similar properties, which could significantly impact the demand for regular housing [9] Group 4: Market Policies and Trends - The real estate market is expected to see increased stimulus policies in the second half of the year, including potential tax reductions and subsidies for homebuyers [10][11] - The possibility of implementing "existing home sales" policies in hot cities is being discussed, which could stabilize housing prices but may lead to significant land price reductions [11]

Group 1: Macro Strategy and Policy Analysis - The "Beautiful America Act" emphasizes tax cuts for residents and businesses while neglecting social welfare and healthcare sectors [3][21] - The rising U.S. fiscal deficit is attributed to the shift from "balanced finance" to "functional finance," driven by slowing economic output and increasing government spending [3][21] - Support for the new act is divided among social groups, with small business owners and manufacturers in favor, while healthcare and clean energy sectors express dissatisfaction [3][22] - The market's reaction to the fiscal deficit has become "dull," indicating that the narrative around the impact of the deficit on broad national credit has lessened [3][24] Group 2: Industry Insights and Company Analysis - Zhejiang Shibao is a leading player in the automotive steering system industry, focusing on electric power steering systems and line control steering technology [9][32] - The company has seen a recovery in gross margin and net profit due to increased production capacity and the introduction of high-margin products [9][34] - Forecasts for Zhejiang Shibao's revenue from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 35.1 billion, 43.7 billion, and 52.0 billion CNY, with net profits expected to grow significantly [9][36] - Zhonggu Logistics is experiencing high demand in the container shipping market, with domestic shipping rates expected to rise due to capacity shortages [16][39] - The company is projected to maintain high dividend payouts, with a forecasted dividend ratio of 90% in 2025, resulting in a dividend yield of around 10% [16][40] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Developments - BeiGene's CDK4 inhibitor BGB-43395 is on track to become the second CDK4 inhibitor to enter the registration clinical phase, showing promising early efficacy signals [11][41] - The drug demonstrates higher selectivity compared to existing CDK4/6 inhibitors and has shown strong pharmacokinetic data [11][42] - Revenue forecasts for BeiGene from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 375.17 billion, 450.24 billion, and 540.34 billion CNY, with significant growth in net profit anticipated [11][43]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The introduction of "current housing sales" policies in cities like Jingmen and Xinyang indicates a shift towards promoting immediate sales of newly developed properties, with a focus on improving market stability [1][10][12] - The trend of increasing current housing sales is driven by buyer preferences for tangible products and the accumulation of inventory due to slower investment growth, particularly in lower-tier cities [2][12] - The overall market sentiment is improving, with expectations of policy support to stabilize the real estate sector, suggesting a potential turning point in the industry [4][14] Summary by Sections 1. Current Housing Sales Policy - Jingmen is the only pilot city in Hubei for current housing sales, with policies requiring new land sales to prioritize this sales model starting January 1, 2026 [1][12] - The policy aims to enhance market stability and reduce inventory, with a notable decrease in available inventory and a reduction in the de-stocking cycle [1][12] 2. Market Overview - New housing transactions for the week totaled 3.82 million square meters, showing a year-on-year decline of 9.65%, but an improvement of 1.33 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][17] - The second-hand housing market saw transactions of 1.75 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 10.38%, indicating a weakening trend [3][26] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt relief and policy support, as well as leading companies with product advantages and regional firms with improving market shares [4][14] - Specific companies recommended for investment include Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments, among others [4][14][15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the real estate market is returning to a downward trend, with sales expected to decline without new policies, projecting a decrease in sales revenue by 5.8% and sales area by 3.6% for 2025 [2][3][90] - The report highlights that the current inventory supply-demand relationship has not improved significantly, with an estimated 14% of excess idle land potentially being absorbed if all recovery plans are implemented [3][82] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market, particularly focusing on inventory reduction strategies such as land recovery and urban village renovations [10][12][13] Group 2 - The investment strategy suggests that companies with strong land acquisition capabilities, high-quality land reserves, and strong product offerings are likely to stand out during the market bottoming process, recommending firms like China Jinmao, China Resources Land, and Greentown China [4][8] - The report anticipates a continued decline in real estate investment, projecting a decrease of 9.3% for 2025, driven by both construction and land acquisition costs [91] - The report notes that the new housing regulations aim to improve the quality of residential buildings, which is expected to positively impact demand for high-quality housing in the long term [17][70] Group 3 - The report indicates that the sales performance of new homes in first-tier cities has shown some resilience, with cumulative transaction areas in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai experiencing slight increases [22][34] - The report outlines that the overall housing market is under pressure, with new home prices showing a year-on-year decline of 0.9% in the first five months of 2025, while second-hand home prices have decreased by 6.3% [45][53] - The land market is experiencing a divergence, with land prices in high-tier cities increasing significantly, while lower-tier cities are seeing a decline in land transaction volumes [57][58]