早在2017年的某次互联网大会上，马云就抛出一句令人震惊的预言："未来房价会像葱一样便宜。"当时，房价正处于上升的趋势之中。房企都在疯狂拿地建 房，而炒房者则在连夜排队买房。所以，很多人对马云的预言嗤之以鼻，认为马云的言论有哗众取宠之嫌。 从2022年开始，国内房价就进入到长期调整的趋势之中。现在全国各地的房价与历史最高位相比，平均跌幅超过30%，而像涿州、廊坊等环京楼市的房价跌 幅更是超过了60%。此外，鹤岗、阜新、双鸭山等三四线城市的房价已经跌至"白菜价"，只要花几万元或者十几万元就可以买套房子。 目前，国内房价要么正朝着马云预测的方向运行，要么部分三四线城市已经出现了"葱价"。马云当年的预言已经快要实现了。而面对当前国内房地产市场的 趋势，有业内人士表示：若无意外，2026年房地产将发生重大改变。让我们一起来了解一下： 第一，房地产调控力度会加强 在进入到2025年之后，房地产市场还是延续了之前调整的走势。预计到2026年这个房地产趋势还将会继续下去。而为了避免短期内房地产市场出现大幅波 动，明年的房地产调控力度大概率还会继续加强。 除了一线城市逐步放开限购政策之外，银行的房贷利率还有望进一步下降。此外 ...

潮新闻客户端 记者 蒋敏华 从开盘到现在房子卖了近三年，楼盘交付也已半年，可开发商手上的新房还没卖完。更糟糕的是，有的业主似乎 已经摒不牢，挂出远低于新房的价格甩卖。 今年3月，该楼盘如期交付，不过直到此时开发商还没有卖完房子。透明售房网显示，该楼盘目前仍有数十套可售 房源。 与此同时，也有一些业主决定不再等行情回暖，开始把房子挂牌出售。"一套98m²的房子挂了110万元，这个价格 低得不可思议。虽然开发商的新房价格折扣打得很低，但这个挂价还不到原价的7折，真的是震惊到了我们业 主。"有业主告诉记者说。 "截至目前，该小区一共成交了两套98m²二手房源，一套七楼一套八楼，成交价分别是105万元和107万元，税费 由房东和买家各自承担。"贝壳二手房经纪人小谭告诉记者说。 以这样的价格出手，对房东而言显然是巨亏。据悉，该楼盘首开没有任何优惠，随后价格越买越低，折扣曾一度 低至8折。目前，该楼盘新房价格折扣是8.5折，一套98m²户型折后价大概要150万元。不过记者了解到，该楼盘目 前已启动分销，若算上中介返佣，实际折扣接近8折。尽管开发商价格优惠力度不小，但在业主的甩卖价面前，显 然没有任何优势可言。 慢慢熬成现 ...

Group 1 - The Supreme People's Court has ruled that homebuyers facing unfinished properties can legally terminate their purchase contracts and loan agreements, relieving them of repayment obligations for loans on properties that have not been delivered [4][5][6] - A significant case involving a buyer from Yancheng, Jiangsu, illustrates the ruling's implications, where the court ordered the developer to refund the buyer's down payment and loan principal, along with interest, while also relieving the buyer of further loan obligations [6][7] - The ruling marks a pivotal shift in the legal landscape, emphasizing that financial contracts cannot override principles of fairness and justice, thus protecting homebuyers from undue financial burdens in cases of project abandonment [10][12] Group 2 - The prevalence of unfinished properties has reached alarming levels, with approximately 2.31 million unfinished homes reported nationwide, affecting over a million families and raising significant social stability concerns [14] - The shift from a pre-sale system to a focus on selling completed properties is becoming mainstream, as the drawbacks of the pre-sale model have become increasingly apparent, leading to a redefinition of market rules [15] - This new legal precedent signals a transformation in buyer confidence, encouraging a preference for completed properties to mitigate risks associated with unfinished developments [15][16]

Core Insights - Guangzhou's real estate market is transitioning to a "mainly existing homes" phase, with existing home inventory surpassing pre-sold homes for the first time, indicating a significant structural change in the market [1][3][4] Market Trends - As of mid-2025, the available inventory of residential properties in Guangzhou is 14.47 million square meters, with existing homes accounting for 7.42 million square meters (51.3%) and pre-sold homes at 7.05 million square meters (48.7%) [3] - Nationwide, existing home sales area reached 163 million square meters in mid-2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, while pre-sold home sales decreased by 10.6% to 296 million square meters [3] Consumer Preferences - The preference for existing homes is driven by the "seeing is believing" principle, as buyers seek certainty in delivery and wish to avoid risks associated with pre-sold homes, such as project delays and quality issues [3][4] Regional Supply - Existing home projects are now available across all districts in Guangzhou, including key areas like Tianhe and Huangpu, with some projects already in the delivery phase, allowing for immediate occupancy [4] Policy and Market Dynamics - The increase in existing home inventory has sparked discussions on optimizing the pre-sale system, as current practices place significant risk on buyers [5][6] - Experts suggest that a balanced risk-sharing mechanism is needed, where the risks associated with home purchases are more evenly distributed between developers and buyers [5] Implementation of New Sales Models - Cities like Xinyang have begun implementing a "pay and receive" model for existing home sales, with over 30 provinces in China introducing related policies since late 2022 [6] - Guangzhou is considering pilot programs for existing home sales in areas with high inventory, while also addressing the need for developers to adapt to changing market conditions [6]

Group 1: Core Transformation in Real Estate - The real estate industry is undergoing a profound structural transformation, marked by a shift from high turnover and high leverage models to a new financing system aligned with current housing sales and height restrictions [1] - The essence of this transformation is the redistribution of risks and benefits, which is already reflected in various multidimensional data [1] Group 2: Current Housing Sales and Market Reconstruction - The proportion of current housing sales surged from 12.7% in 2020 to 30.84% in 2024, driven by proactive policy pressure and market forces [2] - In 2024, the new construction area of commercial housing nationwide decreased by 23% compared to the same period last year, marking the lowest level since 2009 [5] - The funding recovery cycle for real estate companies has extended from 1-2 years to 3-5 years due to current housing sales, creating a financial firewall between developers and banks [6] - In 2024, the market share of the top 10 real estate companies increased to 38%, a 5 percentage point rise compared to before the new policies [6] Group 3: Quality Revolution and Cost Restructuring - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development raised the residential height standard from 2.8 meters to 3 meters, leading to significant cost increases in the construction industry [7] - For every 0.1-meter increase in height, construction costs rise by 2-3%, with total cost increases reaching 8-12% when factoring in additional expenses [7] - In Shenzhen's Bao'an District, a decrease in floor area ratio from 6.0 to 4.4 coincided with a price jump from 80,000 to 120,000 per square meter, illustrating a unique pricing phenomenon [7] Group 4: Market Segmentation and Supply Dynamics - 78% of homebuyers are willing to pay an additional 5% for higher ceilings and more comfort, while third- and fourth-tier cities face a 36-month inventory turnover period [8] - A dual-track supply structure is emerging, with plans for 240-300 hectares of commodity housing land in Beijing by 2025, alongside 50,000 units of affordable rental housing [8] Group 5: Financial Model Iteration and Debt Issues - The collapse of the old model is evident in financial data, with some companies facing a debt maturity scale of approximately 3.1 trillion yuan by 2025 [10] - State-owned enterprises dominate land auctions, accounting for 77% of the total land acquisition amount in 22 cities in 2024 [10] Group 6: Wealth Redistribution and Market Disparities - The transformation is creating new wealth gaps, with those who purchased high-rise properties from 2016 to 2023 facing significant asset depreciation [14] - Non-core area second-hand houses have experienced a 15-20% value loss, while premium properties in core areas are seeing high demand and prices [14] Group 7: Future Outlook and Industry Challenges - The industry is expected to move towards high-quality development after enduring pain, with urban household debt ratios projected to rise to 62.3% by 2025 [16] - The sustainability of the "quality revolution" pricing strategy remains uncertain for average households [17]

Market Overview - The current real estate market is characterized by price differentiation and ongoing policy adjustments, with national housing prices under pressure but structural opportunities emerging [3][4] - In July, first-tier cities saw new home prices decrease by 1.1% year-on-year, while Shanghai experienced a 6.1% increase, indicating a divergence in market performance [3][4] - The government has implemented various policies to stabilize the market, including subsidies for families with multiple children and adjustments to housing loan policies [4][5] Policy Impact - Demand-side policies include significant subsidies for families purchasing homes, such as Wuhan's 60,000 to 120,000 yuan subsidies for families with two or three children [4][6] - Supply-side measures involve extending housing loan limits and introducing new transaction transparency measures to reduce risks [5][6] - Financial policies maintain low mortgage rates, with the 5-year LPR at 3.5% and the lowest mortgage rates at 3.15% for commercial loans [5] Market Trends - The proportion of existing home sales is increasing, with 26.5% of residential sales being existing homes in 2024, up 16 percentage points from 2020 [10] - The conversion of existing homes to affordable housing is impacting the second-hand market, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, where prices are declining [10][11] - The definition of "good housing" is evolving, with a focus on quality upgrades and smart home features, leading to increased demand for modern properties [10][11] Seller Strategies - Sellers in urgent need of cash should consider pricing strategies and tax optimization to facilitate quick sales [12] - Investors holding non-core assets are advised to liquidate these properties and reinvest in prime locations or new developments with growth potential [12] - Awareness of the timing of subsidy policies is crucial for sellers to maximize benefits before potential reductions [12]

Core Viewpoint - Yuexiu Property has achieved a contract sales growth of 11% year-on-year, reaching 61.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, making it one of the few top 10 real estate companies to report positive growth in a declining market [1][2]. Sales Performance - In the first half of the year, Yuexiu Property's sales in first-tier cities amounted to 49.5 billion yuan, accounting for 80.5% of total sales [2]. - The company reported significant sales growth in key cities: Beijing saw a contract sales increase of 255.1% to 19.72 billion yuan, while Guangzhou maintained a steady sales figure of 15.766 billion yuan, and Shanghai recorded 14.492 billion yuan [2]. Investment Strategy - Yuexiu Property added 13 new land reserves totaling approximately 1.48 million square meters, with 68% located in first-tier cities [2]. - The management anticipates a rationalization of the land market in the second quarter and aims to achieve a high-quality investment target of 30 billion yuan for the year [2][3]. Operational Efficiency - The company adopts a "sales-driven investment" strategy, focusing on smaller land parcels to enhance turnover speed and improve cash flow [3]. - The management attributes growth to accurate market analysis, comprehensive project investment control, and concentration of resources in core cities [3]. Financial Performance - Yuexiu Property reported a revenue of 45.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.6%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 25.2% to 1.37 billion yuan [3][4]. - The gross profit was approximately 5.06 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 10.6%, down 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. Future Outlook - The management emphasizes the need for improved product quality, service, brand, and team, aiming to implement lean management principles to enhance project efficiency [4]. - The chairman expressed a belief that the real estate industry will eventually shift towards selling completed properties, contingent on supportive financial policies [5]. Market Sentiment - Investment banks are optimistic about Yuexiu Property's performance, noting its sales growth and strong positioning in major cities, leading to an upgrade in credit rating outlook and a target price increase to 6.2 HKD per share [6].

Real Estate Market - The real estate market in the second half of 2025 is experiencing significant changes, with a shift from a "buying frenzy" to a more subdued environment, exemplified by promotional tactics such as "85% off for existing homes" and free parking spaces in Shanghai [1][2] - The controversial "shared area" concept is being phased out, with cities like Guangzhou and Hangzhou mandating that new home sales be based on "usable area," allowing consumers to save significantly on property costs [1] - Over 20 cities have made "existing home sales" a mandatory requirement for new land parcels, indicating a decline in the era of selling off-plan properties and addressing consumer concerns about unfinished projects [2] Automotive Market - The automotive market is witnessing intense price competition, with traditional fuel vehicles seeing unprecedented discounts, such as a 14,000 yuan reduction on a German brand's C-class sedan [4] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has surpassed 60%, with significant advancements in battery technology and charging infrastructure, leading to improved consumer confidence [4][6] - The cost of owning new energy vehicles is decreasing, with nighttime charging rates as low as 0.45 yuan per kilowatt-hour, resulting in a cost of only 3 yuan per 100 kilometers [6] Consumer Purchasing Power - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight increase of 0.1% in June, but overall prices for daily consumer goods remain stable, with some sectors increasing promotional activities [8] - The decline in housing and vehicle prices is enhancing purchasing power, with mortgage rates dropping to historical lows, allowing consumers to save on monthly payments [9] - The financial market is shifting towards low-risk investment products, with three-year large-denomination time deposits yielding less than 2%, prompting a preference for safer investment options [9]

Core Viewpoint - Yuexiu Property's mid-year financial report for 2025 shows strong revenue growth but a decline in net profit, indicating a mixed performance in a challenging real estate market [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 47.57 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 34.6% [1] - Gross profit recorded was 5.06 billion yuan, up 4.4% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.37 billion yuan, down 25.2% compared to the previous year [1] - Gross margin stood at 10.6%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] Sales Performance - Contract sales amounted to 61.5 billion yuan, representing an 11% year-on-year growth, achieving 51% of the annual sales target of 120.5 billion yuan [1] - Yuexiu Property is one of the three companies among the top 10 real estate firms with positive growth, ranking 8th in sales [1] - Sales from first-tier cities accounted for 80.5% of total contract sales, with Beijing contributing 19.72 billion yuan, Shanghai 14.49 billion yuan, and Guangzhou 15.76 billion yuan [1] Land Acquisition Strategy - The company has a total land reserve of 20.43 million square meters, with 94% located in core first and second-tier cities [3] - In the first half of the year, total equity investment reached 10.96 billion yuan, acquiring 13 new land parcels with a total area of approximately 1.48 million square meters, 68% of which are in first-tier cities [2][3] - The management emphasizes a strategy of acquiring smaller projects in urban areas for quicker investment returns, adopting a "guerrilla warfare" approach to land acquisition [3] Future Outlook - The company is confident in achieving its annual sales target of 120.5 billion yuan, supported by a strong pipeline of projects in key cities [2] - The management plans to enhance inventory turnover and sales price management in the second half of the year [1] - There is a focus on precise investment strategies and optimizing land structure to ensure high cash flow and investment returns [3]

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Province has introduced nine new real estate policies aimed at optimizing both supply and demand, particularly focusing on supporting multi-child families and attracting talent to meet housing needs [1][2][5]. Demand Side Summary - The new policies include the cancellation of ordinary and non-ordinary residential standards, support for multi-child families in purchasing homes, and tax refunds for individuals selling their homes to buy new ones within a year [2][5]. - There is a specific emphasis on supporting talent acquisition by allowing them to apply for housing purchase subsidies and rental subsidies [2][5]. - The adjustment in housing credit policies will reduce the recognized number of properties owned by multi-child families, thereby easing their loan conditions [5][6]. Supply Side Summary - The policies aim to revitalize existing real estate land and properties, including support for converting commercial land for residential use and easing standards for purchasing existing homes for rental purposes [2][3]. - The government encourages the use of housing vouchers and "buy instead of build" methods for urban renewal projects in areas with high inventory of residential properties [3][6]. - The optimization of existing home sales processes will be piloted in Haikou City [3]. Market Impact - The policies are expected to enhance the efficiency of resource utilization and improve the supply-demand relationship in the real estate market [6]. - The measures are anticipated to positively impact the stabilization of Hainan's real estate market as they are implemented [1][6].