21世纪经济报道记者吴抒颖 在全国多座城市纷纷推行全现房销售之时，一线城市也加快推进现房销售 的步伐。 深圳市规划和自然资源局于近期挂牌一宗全现房销售宅地，这宗位于福田梅林的地块土地面积4994平方 米，建筑面积1.85万平方米，建筑高度小于100米，挂牌起始价4.8亿元，计划于12月10日出让。 这是深圳又一次挂牌现房销售的地块。 去年9月，深圳公共资源交易中心曾挂牌一宗位于宝安区航城街道的现房销售地块，土地面积约18.16万 平方米，规划建筑面积约28.99万平方米，容积率为1.6，挂牌起始价约66.65亿元，最终被深铁拿下。 在现房销售的推动上，深圳一直走在前列。早在2016年，深圳就在龙华推出首宗商品房现售试点地块， 以推动现房销售。今年以来，深圳也在推出的多宗地块中加入现房销售的比例。 在当前的市场环境下，现房销售保证"所见即所得"，更有助于购房者做出决策。随着现房销售的比例持 续提升，房企也在"被动"被选择，因为现房销售对房企的资金、财务以及运营的要求更高，只有稳健、 专业型的房企才能够有实力操盘现房销售的地块，这无疑也为购房者再加一层保险。 加速推进 持续探索 事实上，现房销售在全国一直稳步推进 ...

在住房资源匮乏的年代，预售制度发挥了不可磨灭的作用。它为房地产开发企业提供了宝贵的融资渠道，有效缓解了开发商的资金压力。国家统计局的数据 清晰地显示，在房企的资金来源中，"定金及预收款"长期占据重要地位，占比始终保持在20%以上，在早期甚至一度超过40%。预售制度不仅为开发商提供 了周转资金，还降低了他们的经营风险，同时也让购房者能够以相对较低的价格购买到未来的房产。预售房相对于现房的价格优势，是其能够被消费者接受 的重要原因。 然而，随着房地产市场的不断发展，预售制度的弊端也日益显现。正如北京某大型房企负责人所言，预售制度在为开发商带来便利、提高资金利用效率的同 时，也将风险转嫁给了银行和购房者。一旦房价出现调整或进入下降周期，期房在交付时就可能因房价下跌而增加银行的坏账风险。更令人担忧的是，一些 缺乏诚信的开发商利用预售制度的漏洞，人为操纵期房的供求关系，通过虚假广告和宣传资料欺骗消费者，导致项目延期交付甚至出现一房多卖等恶性事 件，引发了大量的纠纷。 如今，中国房地产市场的供求关系正在发生根本性的逆转，曾经风光无限的预售制度，已经无法适应新的市场环境。2020年，海南省率先宣布全面取消商品 房预售制度， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro: In November, new production capacity in Inner Mongolia is expected to be put into operation, increasing supply pressure. The inventory of ferromanganese silicon is rising faster, and the subsequent production pressure is expected to increase. The leading manganese-based enterprises plan to promote energy conservation and emission reduction in the industry by 40%, but the supply did not decline from August to September and decreased slightly in October. On the demand side, the national policy of reducing crude steel production will continue in 2025, and the subsequent crude steel production will continue to decline. Coke profits have little room for significant improvement, and alloys are likely to remain in a loss state. It is expected that the main contract of ferromanganese silicon will fluctuate in the range of 5,700 - 5,900 [6]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the main ferromanganese silicon contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend in the weekly chart [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - Macro: Hunan Yueyang Pingjiang County introduced new regulations to become the first county in Hunan to fully implement the spot - housing sales system. The central bank's RMB loan balance has reached 27 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale stock has reached 43.7 trillion yuan. In October, residents' confidence in buying houses continued to decline, and they continued to adopt a wait - and - see attitude [6]. - Overseas: Trump warned that if the Supreme Court rules against imposing comprehensive tariffs, the US will face an "economic disaster" [6]. - Supply and Demand: Inventory has rebounded rapidly, production has continued to decline slightly at a high level, and inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. On the cost side, the port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 83,000 tons, and on the demand side, hot metal production has declined seasonally. In terms of profits, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 170 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it is - 330 yuan/ton. The final price of ferromanganese silicon set by HBIS Group in November is 5,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [6]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the main ferromanganese silicon contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - Strategy: It is expected that the main contract of ferromanganese silicon will fluctuate in the range of 5,700 - 5,900 [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of November 14, the position of the ferromanganese silicon futures contract is 604,600 lots, an increase of 35,000 lots compared with the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract spread is 60, an increase of 6 points. The number of ferromanganese silicon warehouse receipts is 19,863, an increase of 5,505. The spread between the January contracts of ferromanganese silicon and ferrosilicon is 258, an increase of 24 points [12][16]. - Spot Market: As of November 14, the spot price of ferromanganese silicon in Inner Mongolia is 5,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The basis is - 208 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 points [24]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - Industry: The operating rate of 187 independent ferromanganese silicon enterprises is 39.59%, a decrease of 0.65% from the previous week. The daily average output is 28,510 tons, a decrease of 330 tons. The weekly demand for ferromanganese silicon in five major steel types is 118,589 tons, a decrease of 2.08% from the previous week, and the weekly supply of national ferromanganese silicon is 199,570 tons, a decrease of 1.14% from the previous week. The inventory of 63 independent ferromanganese silicon enterprises has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, with a total inventory of 346,500 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons [28][32]. - Upstream: As of November 12, the price of South African manganese ore and Australian manganese ore in Tianjin Port remained unchanged. As of November 10, the electricity price in Ningxia remained unchanged, and in Inner Mongolia it decreased by 0.025 yuan/kWh. As of November 7, the total manganese ore inventory was 4.397 million tons, an increase of 1.92%. The arrival volume of South African manganese ore this week is 516,800 tons, an increase of 16% from the previous week, Australian manganese ore is 67,300 tons, an increase of 100%, Gabonese manganese ore is 70,000 tons, an increase of 100%, and Ghanaian manganese ore is 0 tons, a decrease of 100%. As of November 13, the spot production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 1.16%, and in Ningxia it increased by 0.25%. The spot profit in the northern region increased by 13.09% [39][45][49]. - Downstream: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 2.3688 million tons, an increase of 26,600 tons from the previous week and 9,400 tons from the same period last year. The final price of ferromanganese silicon set by HBIS Group in November is 5,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [54].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The macro environment has shifted from strong expectations and weak reality to weak expectations and weak reality, with the guarantee of civilian heating energy taking precedence over safety production work in mid - November, affecting the market sentiment. The decline in crude steel production and poor real - estate investment data mean that coke profits have limited room for significant improvement. The main price of coking coal futures is expected to oscillate between 1130 - 1350, and the main price of coke futures between 1630 - 1850 [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Macro**: Hunan Yueyang Pingjiang County introduced new regulations to become the first county in Hunan to fully implement spot - house sales. The central bank's RMB loan balance reached 270 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale stock reached 437 trillion yuan. In October, residents' confidence in home - buying continued to decline [7]. - **Overseas**: Trump warned of an "economic disaster" if the Supreme Court rules against imposing comprehensive tariffs [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The current iron - water output is 236.88 million tons, an increase of 2.66 million tons, and the total coke inventory is higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 34 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the main coke contract 2601 is above the 60 - day average, showing a bullish trend [7]. - **Strategy**: The NDRC aims to stabilize energy production and supply. The market has shifted from strong expectations and weak reality to weak expectations and weak reality. The decline in crude steel production and poor real - estate investment data mean that coke profits have limited room for significant improvement. The main price of coking coal futures is expected to oscillate between 1130 - 1350, and the main price of coke futures between 1630 - 1850 [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The contract holding volume increased by 1233 lots, and the coke monthly spread increased by 13 points. The registered warehouse receipt volume remained unchanged, and the screw - coke ratio increased by 0.10 points [9][13][15]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 13, 2025, the coke closing price at Rizhao Port was 1580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. As of November 14, the coke basis was - 106.0 yuan, an increase of 90.5 points [25]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Coal Mines**: The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 86.3%, an increase of 2.5%. The daily output of raw coal was 192.0 million tons, an increase of 5.6 million tons, and the raw coal inventory was 434.6 million tons, an increase of 15.3 million tons. The daily output of clean coal was 75.7 million tons, an increase of 1.9 million tons, and the clean coal inventory was 165.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.5 million tons [30]. - **Coal Washing Plants**: The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal - washing plants was 37.4%, a decrease of 0.18%. The daily output of clean coal was 27.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons, and the clean coal inventory was 300.8 million tons, an increase of 5.9 million tons [30]. - **Coking Plants**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 71.10%, a decrease of 0.74%. The daily output of coke was 50.14 million tons, a decrease of 0.52 million tons. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton [34]. - **Steel Mills**: The daily output of iron water was 236.88 million tons, an increase of 2.66 million tons compared with last week. As of November 14, 2025, the total coke inventory was 850.19 million tons, a decrease of 5.45 million tons compared with the previous period, and an increase of 8.63% compared with the same period last year [38]. - **Inventory Structure**: The port inventory decreased, and the steel - mill inventory decreased. The inventory of 18 ports was 259.50 million tons, a decrease of 3.01 million tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 622.4 million tons, a decrease of 4.24 million tons, and the available days of coke were 11.06 days, a decrease of 0.01 days [41][43]. - **Exports**: From January to September, the cumulative coke exports were 549 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.5%, and the cumulative steel exports were 8795.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [47]. 4. Fundamental Data Charts - **Real Estate**: In October 2025, the second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.70% month - on - month. As of the week of November 9, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 139.51 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 30.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.43% [50][51]. - **City - Tier Breakdown**: As of the week of November 9, the commercial housing transaction area in first - tier cities was 39.32 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 18.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.46%. The commercial housing transaction area in second - tier cities was 72.74 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 35.63% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.04% [56].

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen is accelerating the supply of residential land, with a recent requirement for "existing house sales" for a new residential plot, indicating a shift in the local real estate market strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Land Supply and Sales Policy - Shenzhen's Planning and Natural Resources Bureau has listed a residential plot (B405-0308) in Futian, with a land area of 4,994 square meters and a starting price of 480 million yuan, set for auction on December 10 [1]. - The plot requires all residential units to be sold as existing houses, marking the second instance of such a requirement in recent years in Shenzhen [1]. Group 2: National Trends in Existing House Sales - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized the need to reform the real estate development, financing, and sales systems, promoting existing house sales to mitigate delivery risks [2]. - In the first three quarters of this year, the total area of existing house sales reached approximately 23,305.93 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, accounting for 35.4% of total residential sales [2]. Group 3: Market Adaptation and Project Suitability - Existing house sales reduce delivery times and lower consumer rights protection risks, but they also increase cost pressures for real estate companies [3]. - Major real estate firms are advised to leverage their financial strength to adopt existing house sales, while smaller firms may need to collaborate on projects to adapt to this model [3]. - High-quality projects in hot urban areas, customized villas, and regions with high inventory and low consumer confidence are identified as suitable for existing house sales, which could help boost market confidence [3].

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen is accelerating the supply of residential land, with a recent requirement for "existing house sales" for a new residential plot, indicating a shift in the local real estate market strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Land Supply and Sales Policy - Shenzhen's Planning and Natural Resources Bureau has listed a residential plot (B405-0308) in Futian, with a starting price of 480 million yuan, set for auction on December 10 [1]. - The plot requires all residential units to be sold as existing houses, marking the second instance of such a requirement in recent years [1][2]. Group 2: Current Market Trends - The concept of existing house sales is gaining traction, with a reported 23,305.93 million square meters of existing house sales area in the first three quarters of this year, a 9.9% increase year-on-year, accounting for 35.4% of total residential sales [2]. - Various provinces and cities have initiated pilot programs or policies to promote existing house sales since 2019, with recent measures in Pingjiang County, Hunan, mandating that new residential properties must be completed before sale [2]. Group 3: Industry Implications - Existing house sales reduce delivery times and lower consumer rights protection risks, but they also increase cost pressures for real estate companies [3]. - Major developers are advised to leverage their financial strength to adopt existing house sales, while smaller firms may need to collaborate or shorten development cycles to adapt [3]. - High-quality projects in hot urban areas and customized villa projects are seen as suitable for existing house sales, which could stimulate buyer interest and willingness to pay premiums [3].

最近一段时间，深圳加快了宅地供应速度，甚至再现要求"现房销售"的宅地。 近日，深圳市规划和自然资源局挂牌一宗宅地，地块编号B405-0308，位于福田梅林，靠近地铁9、10号线孖岭 站，土地面积4994平方米，建筑面积18550平方米，建筑高度小于100米，挂牌起始价4.8亿元，计划于12月10 日出让。 值得注意的是，根据出让公告，B405-0308宗地内的商品住房需全部实行现房销售。在业内人士看来，这是继 宝安机场东车辆段地块后，深圳土地市场近年来第二宗要求全现房销售的宅地。 那么，哪些项目适合实行现房销售？广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉表示，热点城市的热点地块适 合打造高品质项目，现房销售激发购房动力，购房者也愿意支付高溢价；一些定制类的别墅项目，根据购房者 的个性化需求，打造所见即所得的产品；此外，还有同质化、高库存、问题楼盘比较多以及信心比较弱的区 域，也适合实行现房销售。在李宇嘉看来，现房销售是提振市场信心的关键因素之一。目前，提振市场信心是 房地产市场稳定的关键。 现房销售一直是业内较为关注的话题，近日出版的《〈中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规 划的建议〉辅导读本》中刊登 ...

广发证券发布研报称，四中全会后，年底各项工作会议前，本周处于政策空窗期，中央及各地方政府未 有新表态。但黄奇帆关于"建立老年人房产倒按揭体系"，"以房养老"、"房供消费"等表态引起广泛关 注。此外本周平江县全面推行现房销售，该行预计现房销售对当地房企影响不大。关于地产新模式的探 索仍在持续，年底政治局会议、中央经济工作会议表态可期。 消息面上，11月3日，湖南省岳阳市平江县全面推行现房销售。中泰证券发布研报称，这是继河南信 阳、湖北荆门、广州从化区后，全国第四个地区明确推进现房销售。该行表示，现房销售可防范交付风 险，有助稳定市场，长远促进房企汰弱留强，但是短期却未必有效直接推动新房销售。内房港股投资方 面，维持选取优质国企开发商。 智通财经APP获悉，内房股继续走高，截至发稿，世茂集团(00813)涨13.21%，报0.3港元；富力地产 (02777)涨5.36%，报0.59港元；华润置地(01109)涨4.45%，报30.96港元；远洋集团(03377)涨3.81%，报 0.109港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The new housing transaction area has turned negative on a month-on-month basis, with a year-on-year decline expanding. The transaction area for new homes in 40 cities was 1.722 million square meters, down 34.8% month-on-month and down 47.0% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 9.7 percentage points compared to the previous week [7][18] - The report highlights the implementation of a policy in Pingjiang County, Hunan, promoting the sale of completed homes, which is expected to enhance product quality and safety in the housing market [3][98] - The report expresses confidence in the future recovery of the real estate industry, suggesting that companies with strong liquidity, high market share in key cities, and innovative product offerings will have alpha attributes [7] Summary by Sections New Housing Market Tracking - In the week of November 1 to November 7, 2025, the new housing transaction area in 40 cities decreased significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 47.0% [17][18] - The inventory of new homes increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year, with a depleting cycle of 18.7 months, indicating a mixed market condition [38][39] Second-Hand Housing Market Tracking - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 18 cities was 154.4 million square meters, down 6.6% month-on-month and down 31.9% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing market challenges [44][49] Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions in 100 cities was 27.091 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 29.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 9.0%. The total land transaction price was 65.34 billion yuan, up 29.1% month-on-month but down 10.9% year-on-year [61][66] - The average land price per square meter was 2,411.9 yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.2% month-on-month and a decline of 2.1% year-on-year [61][66] Policy Overview - The report outlines several key policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including promoting the sale of completed homes and optimizing housing supply mechanisms [3][98]

Group 1 - The State Council issued measures to promote private investment, including 13 targeted policies to expand market access for private capital in sectors like railways and nuclear power [2] - The Ministry of Transport announced the suspension of the 301 investigation measures against Chinese maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries, along with the suspension of special port fees for American vessels [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration released guidelines to enhance the consumption and regulation of renewable energy, aiming for a multi-level system by 2030 [2] Group 2 - The eighth China International Import Expo concluded with a record intention transaction amount of $83.49 billion, a 4.4% increase from the previous year [3] - In October, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.282 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, while cumulative sales for the first ten months reached 10.151 million units, up 21.9% [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to accelerate the development of applications in key areas such as 5G, AI, and industrial internet [3] Group 3 - On November 10, the A-share market saw a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.53% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.18%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.92% [4] - Southbound funds through the Hong Kong Stock Connect net bought 6.654 billion HKD, bringing the total net purchase for the year to over 130 billion HKD, a record high since the mechanism's inception [4] Group 4 - As of the end of Q3 2025, the market value of public funds' investments in Hong Kong stocks reached 1.3255 trillion CNY, marking a new high [5] - The proportion of passive public funds' investments in Hong Kong stocks surpassed that of active funds for the first time since 2017, with 52.8% for passive and 47.2% for active [5] Group 5 - The U.S. stock market indices collectively rose, with the Nasdaq Composite Index increasing by 2.27%, driven by gains in major tech stocks [6] - Gold prices surged, with spot gold rising by 2.9% to over $4,115 per ounce, while silver increased by 4.6% to $50.56 per ounce [6] Group 6 - The real estate market is shifting towards a model where over 30% of sales are for existing homes, indicating a trend towards "seeing is believing" in home purchases [7] - The Shenzhen Shui Bei gold market is experiencing a chain reaction due to rising gold prices and new tax policies, leading to a new pricing structure [7]