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“大而美法案”中第“899条款”,为何可能引发美国外资危机?
第一财经· 2025-06-09 15:28
Core Viewpoint - The proposed Section 899 of the "Big and Beautiful Act" aims to impose punitive taxes on foreign investors in the U.S., raising significant concerns among multinational corporations and financial institutions regarding its potential negative impact on foreign direct investment and the U.S. economy [1][6][9]. Summary by Sections Section 899 Overview - Section 899, titled "Remedial Measures for Unfair Foreign Taxation," grants the U.S. Treasury Secretary broad discretion to unilaterally determine what constitutes "unfair foreign taxation," allowing for punitive tax rates of up to 20% on foreign investors from countries deemed to have unfair tax practices [2][5]. Impact on Foreign Investment - The implementation of Section 899 is expected to affect investors from developed countries such as Australia, Canada, the EU, and the UK, with tax rates starting at an increase of 5 percentage points annually, potentially reaching a maximum of 20 percentage points above the statutory rate [6][9]. - The International Bankers Association (IIB) highlighted that foreign banks account for over 70% of foreign corporate debt issuance in the U.S., and the proposed tax could significantly hinder foreign direct investment, threatening jobs across various U.S. communities [9]. Opposition from Business Associations - Multiple international business associations have expressed strong opposition to Section 899, arguing that it could severely impact the long-term growth of multinational companies operating in the U.S. and contradicts the government's strategy to attract investment [8][9]. - The American Investment Company Institute warned that Section 899 might restrict foreign investment in the U.S., urging the Senate to refine the clause to specifically target unfair tax practices without harming beneficial foreign investments [9]. Economic Implications - Analysts from Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan have indicated that Section 899 could exert pressure on the U.S. dollar and diminish the motivation for foreign investment, potentially leading to market volatility [6][10]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that Section 899 could raise $116 billion over the next decade, but this is relatively minor compared to the projected $2.4 trillion increase in U.S. debt due to the entire "Big and Beautiful Act" [6]. Legislative Dynamics - The chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, Jason Smith, initially did not intend to push for Section 899 but felt compelled to address foreign governments' attempts to extract billions from U.S. companies [6][10]. - There is a growing sentiment in Congress that the notion of foreign entities paying taxes in the U.S. is gaining traction, although the final implementation of the clause may be adjusted or delayed [10].
警报!全球资本重新站队
Wind万得· 2025-06-04 12:20
Core Viewpoint - The "Beautiful Act" proposed by President Trump may undermine the recent positive investment trends in the U.S. due to its "retaliatory tax" provisions, which could deter foreign investors from U.S. assets and make European assets more attractive [1]. Group 1: Impact of the "Beautiful Act" - The "Beautiful Act" includes a provision (Clause 899) that allows the U.S. Treasury to impose a maximum tax rate of 20% on foreign investors earning income from U.S. investments [1][5]. - The proportion of European investors in U.S. investments has increased from 15% in 2009 to 45% by the end of Q4 2024, but signs indicate a potential reversal of this trend [1]. - The implementation of Clause 899 could lead to significant tax burdens on foreign entities, potentially reaching a combined tax rate of 50% for withholding and branch profits taxes [5][7]. Group 2: European Market Performance - European investor confidence is rising, with the STOXX 50 index increasing over 10% since early 2025 and the DAX index up more than 21% year-to-date [1]. - The euro has appreciated nearly 10% against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year, reflecting a strengthening European market [1]. Group 3: Legislative Status - The "Beautiful Act" was narrowly passed by the House of Representatives with a vote of 215 to 214 and is currently under Senate review, with expectations for completion of the legislative process between June and July [9]. - If passed, the act is projected to generate an additional $116 billion in tax revenue for the U.S. government over the next decade [7].