美国内华达州博彩监管机构周二提起诉讼，要求阻止预测市场运营商Kalshi提供赛事合同，允许该州居 民投注足球和篮球等体育比赛。内华达州博彩管理委员会（Nevada Gaming Control Board）提起诉讼， 这是就全国各州博彩监管机构是否有能力监管像 Kalshi 这样允许用户通过其预测市场进行金融投注的 公司而展开的一场不断升级的斗争的一部分。 就在内华达州提起诉讼的同一天，美国商品期货交易委员会也在相关诉讼的辩护状中表示支持Kalshi这 样的公司，认为该委员会对预测市场拥有专属管辖权。Kalshi 数月来一直试图阻止内华达州监管机构对 其提起诉讼。但联邦上诉法院周二拒绝搁置法官 11 月的命令，该命令解除了此前阻止内华达州当局采 取执法行动的禁令。 如果内华达州胜诉，它将成为第二个获得法院命令阻止卡尔希提供体育赛事合同的州。此前，马萨诸塞 州的一名法官在该州总检察长的要求下于 2 月 5 日签发了一项禁令。该禁令原定于 30 天后生效，但周 二州上诉法院的一名法官在卡尔希上诉期间将其搁置。 美国内华达州博彩监管机构周二提起诉讼，要求阻止预测市场运营商Kalshi提供赛事合同，允许该州居 民投注 ...

Core Viewpoint - Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong advocates for the regulation of prediction markets by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), arguing that state governments claiming otherwise hinder Americans from utilizing tools that enhance competitiveness [1] Group 1 - Coinbase has filed lawsuits against the states of Michigan, Illinois, and Connecticut regarding regulatory issues surrounding prediction markets [1]

来源：市场资讯 Coinbase 就康涅狄格、伊利诺伊、密歇根三州试图以"博彩监管"框架约束预测市场一事提起诉讼。 Coinbase 首席法务官 Paul Grewal 表示，预测市场应由美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）统一监管，而 非州级博彩监管机构；Coinbase 称州层面的限制将"扼杀创新并违法"。（CoinDesk） （来源：吴说） ...

Core Insights - A mysterious trader made a significant bet on María Corina Machado winning the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize just 12 hours before the announcement, raising concerns about insider trading [1][2] - The trader, identified as "6741," increased Machado's winning probability from 5% to 70% on the Polymarket platform, resulting in over $50,000 in profits [1][4] - The Norwegian Nobel Institute has initiated an investigation into potential information leaks related to the betting activity [1][5] Summary by Sections Betting Activity - The account "6741" placed a $1,500 bet on Machado and $1,085 against the previously favored candidate, leading to a rapid increase in her winning odds from 3.7% to 73.5% [2][4] - Other traders followed suit, with one account named "GayPride" profiting over $85,000 as Machado's odds fluctuated between 60% and 71% [4] Regulatory Environment - Polymarket operates as an offshore, unregulated platform that does not prohibit insider trading, raising questions about the legality of trades based on leaked information [5][6] - The platform is currently barred from U.S. participation due to a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) [7] Market Dynamics - The controversy coincides with Polymarket's valuation surge to $8 billion, following a $2 billion investment announcement from the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange [1][7] - Polymarket has gained recognition for accurately predicting outcomes, such as the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and is exploring potential growth in sports betting [7]