Core Insights - A mysterious trader made a significant bet on María Corina Machado winning the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize just 12 hours before the announcement, raising concerns about insider trading [1][2] - The trader, identified as "6741," increased Machado's winning probability from 5% to 70% on the Polymarket platform, resulting in over $50,000 in profits [1][4] - The Norwegian Nobel Institute has initiated an investigation into potential information leaks related to the betting activity [1][5] Summary by Sections Betting Activity - The account "6741" placed a $1,500 bet on Machado and $1,085 against the previously favored candidate, leading to a rapid increase in her winning odds from 3.7% to 73.5% [2][4] - Other traders followed suit, with one account named "GayPride" profiting over $85,000 as Machado's odds fluctuated between 60% and 71% [4] Regulatory Environment - Polymarket operates as an offshore, unregulated platform that does not prohibit insider trading, raising questions about the legality of trades based on leaked information [5][6] - The platform is currently barred from U.S. participation due to a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) [7] Market Dynamics - The controversy coincides with Polymarket's valuation surge to $8 billion, following a $2 billion investment announcement from the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange [1][7] - Polymarket has gained recognition for accurately predicting outcomes, such as the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and is exploring potential growth in sports betting [7]