Coinbase首席执行官Brian Armstrong表示，预测市场应由美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)监管，任何州 政府若声称相反，都是在阻碍美国人使用有助于提升自身竞争力的工具。上周，Coinbase曾就预测市场 监管问题起诉密歇根州、伊利诺伊州和康涅狄格州。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

来源：市场资讯 Coinbase 就康涅狄格、伊利诺伊、密歇根三州试图以"博彩监管"框架约束预测市场一事提起诉讼。 Coinbase 首席法务官 Paul Grewal 表示，预测市场应由美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）统一监管，而 非州级博彩监管机构；Coinbase 称州层面的限制将"扼杀创新并违法"。（CoinDesk） （来源：吴说） ...

Core Insights - A mysterious trader made a significant bet on María Corina Machado winning the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize just 12 hours before the announcement, raising concerns about insider trading [1][2] - The trader, identified as "6741," increased Machado's winning probability from 5% to 70% on the Polymarket platform, resulting in over $50,000 in profits [1][4] - The Norwegian Nobel Institute has initiated an investigation into potential information leaks related to the betting activity [1][5] Summary by Sections Betting Activity - The account "6741" placed a $1,500 bet on Machado and $1,085 against the previously favored candidate, leading to a rapid increase in her winning odds from 3.7% to 73.5% [2][4] - Other traders followed suit, with one account named "GayPride" profiting over $85,000 as Machado's odds fluctuated between 60% and 71% [4] Regulatory Environment - Polymarket operates as an offshore, unregulated platform that does not prohibit insider trading, raising questions about the legality of trades based on leaked information [5][6] - The platform is currently barred from U.S. participation due to a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) [7] Market Dynamics - The controversy coincides with Polymarket's valuation surge to $8 billion, following a $2 billion investment announcement from the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange [1][7] - Polymarket has gained recognition for accurately predicting outcomes, such as the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and is exploring potential growth in sports betting [7]