以下文章来源于中泰证券资管 ，作者文/唐军 中泰证券资管 . 中泰证券（上海）资产管理有限公司官方公众订阅号，投资路上的好朋友。 唐军在"多元资产配置"的路上越来越动作丝滑。 回看一季度，他降低可转债仓位，对黄金略有加持；二季度则加大美元债的配置，增加电力、高股息类 的 ETF 品种，在利率下行空间不大的背景下减持短期国债 ETF …… 隐含了他的宏观判断，也非常匹配他的三段式框架逻辑：一看信用扩张与流动性趋势，二看市场预期是 否过度，三看资产之间是否足够 " 分散且互补 " 。 唐军管这套方法叫 " 配置先行 " ，这是他从量化、宏观研究一路走来的总结。 从最初用复杂模型选因子，到如今更在意 " 逻辑是否稳得住 " ，这位数学出身的 FOF 经理，逐渐把 投资变成一件关于框架和节奏的事儿。 在最新撰写的这篇文章中，唐军抛出一个很有意思的观点： 为什么就连诺奖加持的组合优化模型，也 难逃 " 追涨杀跌 " 的宿命？ 他的分析很逻辑，结论很简单，就是我们不要被历史数据、"易得性"数据牵着鼻子走。 唐军的研究和配置方式是 " 反人性 " 的，像桥水那样复杂又克制；但他给普通投资者的建议，却意外 地朴素好用。 上半 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between asset allocation and chasing gains, highlighting that both concepts often appear intertwined in investment practices, despite their theoretical differences [2][3]. Group 1: Asset Allocation and Chasing Gains - The observation that "allocation" is often linked with "chasing gains" suggests that high perceived value in certain assets typically occurs during price increases, while assets with prolonged losses are rarely considered for allocation [2]. - Traditional investment theories, such as Markowitz's Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), indicate that asset allocation can lead to chasing gains due to reliance on historical data for expected returns and volatility [7][12]. - The tendency to chase gains is not solely a flaw in the models but arises from using past performance to predict future outcomes, which can lead to higher allocations in assets that have recently performed well [14]. Group 2: Behavioral Finance and Subjective Expectations - Behavioral finance concepts, such as availability bias, explain why investors may chase gains based on easily accessible information rather than comprehensive data [18]. - The influence of social media and real-time information can amplify the tendency to chase gains, as investors react to trending assets without thorough analysis [18]. Group 3: Strategies to Avoid Chasing Gains - Establishing an objective analytical framework is crucial for independent judgment and avoiding the common behavior of chasing gains [20]. - Differentiating between long-term logic and short-term variables can help investors avoid misapplying long-term trends to short-term market movements [27]. - Diversifying asset allocation can provide a buffer against the pressure to chase gains, allowing investors to maintain their strategies even when market conditions are unfavorable [29]. - Understanding the distinction between style beta and alpha is essential for evaluating fund performance and avoiding the impulse to chase funds based solely on past performance [32].