Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of avoiding "chasing gains" in asset allocation and emphasizes the need for a scientific and objective analysis framework to make independent investment decisions [9][38]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - The author, 唐军, manages a diversified asset allocation strategy that includes various asset classes such as A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, US bonds, and ETFs focused on high dividends and electricity [5][6]. - 唐军's approach, termed "Configuration First," is based on a three-step framework: assessing credit expansion and liquidity trends, evaluating whether market expectations are excessive, and ensuring asset diversification and complementarity [7][6]. Group 2: Chasing Gains Phenomenon - The article highlights that even sophisticated models like the Markowitz portfolio optimization theory can lead to "chasing gains" due to reliance on historical data for expected returns and volatility [11][20]. - The tendency to chase gains is exacerbated by behavioral biases, such as the "availability heuristic," where investors rely on easily accessible information rather than comprehensive data [25][10]. Group 3: Avoiding Chasing Gains - To avoid chasing gains, the article suggests establishing an objective analysis framework that incorporates quantitative indicators and macroeconomic drivers [26][30]. - It emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between long-term logic and short-term variables, as well as the need to diversify asset allocation to mitigate pressure during market fluctuations [31][34]. Group 4: Market Expectations and Investment Decisions - The article warns that consistent market expectations can often serve as a contrary indicator, suggesting that investors should be cautious during periods of high consensus [35][36]. - It also discusses the importance of recognizing the difference between style beta and alpha when selecting funds, as this understanding can prevent chasing based solely on past performance [37].