Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is drafting an executive order that will impose three major restrictions on commercial transactions involving Chinese innovative drug patents or rights, focusing on national security reviews by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) [1][2]. Summary by Sections Executive Order Details - The draft includes three main provisions: 1. Inclusion of Chinese innovative drug BD transactions in the CFIUS mandatory review list, ending the previous "low-risk automatic exemption" practice [2]. 2. FDA will implement "racial sensitivity supplementary reviews" for drugs relying on Chinese clinical data, requiring at least 20% comparative data from non-Asian populations [2]. 3. Establishment of a "key drug domestic production fund" to provide production subsidies for 15 categories of drugs, including antibiotics and acetaminophen, while implementing a "domestic priority" principle in federal procurement [2]. Market Reaction - The market reacted swiftly to the policy risks, with the Hong Kong innovative drug index (HK1105) dropping 3.82% on September 11, 2025, and the A-share innovative drug sector (BK1106) declining 2.17%, with over 80% of stocks in the sector experiencing pullbacks [3]. - The following day, the indices showed signs of recovery, indicating investors' responses to policy uncertainties and rational corrections [3]. Globalization Trends - Despite the geopolitical risks, the trend of Chinese innovative drugs going global remains intact, with total license-out transactions to Europe and the U.S. reaching $9.43 billion as of September 2025 [3]. - Major transactions include a $950 million licensing deal between BeiGene and Royalty Pharma, and a $6 billion global licensing agreement between 3SBio and Pfizer, highlighting a shift towards milestone payments and regional licensing [3]. Industry Challenges - The domestic market faces challenges, with annual growth in medical insurance fund spending (approximately 12%) lagging behind the growth in innovative drug R&D investment (approximately 25%) [4]. - The average reduction in medical negotiations remains high at 54%, and commercial health insurance coverage for innovative drugs is below 15%, creating a supply-demand imbalance that necessitates going global [4]. Risk Resilience Assessment - Goldman Sachs has categorized Chinese innovative drug companies into three risk resilience tiers based on their sensitivity to policy changes and operational capabilities [4][5]. - Companies with mature global layouts exhibit the strongest resilience, while those heavily reliant on domestic markets show the weakest resilience [5][10]. Strategic Defense Framework - A three-dimensional defense system is proposed to address risks associated with the executive order, focusing on transaction review, data compliance, and supply chain security [13]. - Strategies include conducting national security risk pre-assessments for transactions over $50 million and establishing partnerships with U.S. law firms to navigate regulatory challenges [14][15]. Conclusion - The construction of a quantifiable "risk resilience index" is essential for Chinese innovative drugs in the global 2.0 era, emphasizing the need for companies to embed policy hedging clauses in transaction structures and consider racial diversity data in clinical stages [23].