Core Insights - The beverage market is entering a contraction phase, with overall sales down 9% year-on-year in September, and offline sales down 10.4% [1] - Major companies like Uni-President China reported stable overall revenue, but beverage business revenue declined slightly, influenced by price wars and competition in the industry [1] - The dairy market is also facing challenges, with ready-to-drink tea beverages substituting liquid milk products [1] Group 1: Beverage Market Performance - In September, the beverage market saw a 9% year-on-year decline in total sales, with offline channels experiencing a 10.4% drop [1] - Uni-President China's beverage revenue fell by a low single-digit percentage in Q3, attributed to competition and price wars on delivery platforms [1] - The juice category faced significant pressure, while some products like "Huan Shen" and "Shuang Cui" achieved double-digit revenue growth [1] Group 2: Dairy Market Challenges - The dairy sector is under pressure, with ready-to-drink tea beverages replacing liquid milk products, particularly impacting packaged liquid milk sales [1] - Yili reported that the overall demand for liquid milk remains stable, but packaged liquid milk is facing declines due to competition from ready-to-drink tea [1] Group 3: Production and External Factors - Beverage production in China showed a weakening trend in Q3 compared to the first half of the year, with monthly production declines of 0.17%, 6.79%, and 10.12% respectively from July to September [2] - Adverse weather conditions, including typhoons and heavy rain, may have also impacted beverage sales [2] - The external competition from delivery platforms is becoming more manageable, as many executives noted that delivery subsidies have peaked, which could positively affect the beverage market [2]

Core Insights - The beverage market is entering a contraction phase, with overall sales down 9% year-on-year in September, and offline sales down 10.4% [1] Company Performance - Uni-President China reported that its overall revenue remained flat year-on-year in Q3, with beverage revenue declining in the low single digits. The food segment saw mid-to-low single-digit growth, driven by strong performance from products like "Qie Huang" and "Lao Tan Sauerkraut" [2] - Yili mentioned that ready-to-drink tea is substituting liquid milk products, particularly impacting packaged liquid milk sales, which are facing pressure from alternatives that are not fully captured in statistics [2] Industry Trends - Beverage production in China showed a significant weakening trend in Q3 compared to the first half of the year, with soft drink production declining by 0.17%, 6.79%, and 10.12% year-on-year in July, August, and September respectively, indicating a growing downward trend [3] - Adverse weather conditions, including typhoons and heavy rain, may have also impacted beverage sales during Q3 [4] Market Dynamics - The competition in the food delivery sector is becoming more manageable, as many executives noted that delivery subsidies have peaked [5][6] - This stabilization in the delivery market could potentially benefit the beverage sector [7] Market Performance Overview - The beverage category experienced a 9% decline in overall channel growth and a 10.4% decline in offline channel growth in September [12][13]