Group 1 - The beverage market is entering a contraction phase, with overall sales down 9% year-on-year in September, and offline channel sales down 10.4% [1] - Uni-President China reported that its overall revenue remained flat year-on-year in Q3, with beverage business revenue declining in the low single digits, while food business revenue grew in the mid to low single digits [2] - The dairy market is also facing challenges, with ready-to-drink tea beverages substituting liquid milk products, particularly impacting packaged liquid milk sales [3] Group 2 - Beverage production in China showed a significant weakening trend in Q3 compared to the first half of the year, with soft drink production declining by 0.17%, 6.79%, and 10.12% year-on-year in July, August, and September respectively [4] - Adverse weather conditions, including typhoons and heavy rain, may have also impacted beverage sales, although the external competition from food delivery services is becoming more manageable [5]

Core Insights - The beverage market is entering a contraction phase, with overall sales down 9% year-on-year in September, and offline sales down 10.4% [1] - Major companies like Uni-President China reported stable overall revenue, but beverage business revenue declined slightly, influenced by price wars and competition in the industry [1] - The dairy market is also facing challenges, with ready-to-drink tea beverages substituting liquid milk products [1] Group 1: Beverage Market Performance - In September, the beverage market saw a 9% year-on-year decline in total sales, with offline channels experiencing a 10.4% drop [1] - Uni-President China's beverage revenue fell by a low single-digit percentage in Q3, attributed to competition and price wars on delivery platforms [1] - The juice category faced significant pressure, while some products like "Huan Shen" and "Shuang Cui" achieved double-digit revenue growth [1] Group 2: Dairy Market Challenges - The dairy sector is under pressure, with ready-to-drink tea beverages replacing liquid milk products, particularly impacting packaged liquid milk sales [1] - Yili reported that the overall demand for liquid milk remains stable, but packaged liquid milk is facing declines due to competition from ready-to-drink tea [1] Group 3: Production and External Factors - Beverage production in China showed a weakening trend in Q3 compared to the first half of the year, with monthly production declines of 0.17%, 6.79%, and 10.12% respectively from July to September [2] - Adverse weather conditions, including typhoons and heavy rain, may have also impacted beverage sales [2] - The external competition from delivery platforms is becoming more manageable, as many executives noted that delivery subsidies have peaked, which could positively affect the beverage market [2]

Core Points - A recent incident involving unsanitary practices in sauerkraut production has raised significant concerns about food safety standards in the industry [1][2][3] - The rapid response from local authorities, including the seizure of contaminated sauerkraut, highlights the need for improved regulatory measures [2][3] - Historical issues with food safety in the sauerkraut industry suggest that systemic problems persist, despite existing regulations [2][3] Industry Summary - The incident involved a video showing a man engaging in inappropriate behavior in a sauerkraut production facility, leading to the immediate seizure of the affected batch [1] - Previous food safety scandals, such as the 2022 exposure of unsanitary practices in Hunan province, indicate ongoing issues within the industry [2] - The lack of adherence to established safety standards and regulations raises questions about the effectiveness of current oversight mechanisms [3] - Regulatory challenges include the prevalence of small-scale producers and the traditional methods used in sauerkraut production, which complicate enforcement [3] - Recommendations for improving oversight include increased inspection frequency, remote monitoring, and the establishment of a blacklist for non-compliant companies [3][4]

Core Insights - The company reported strong performance in 1H25, with revenue of 17.087 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.287 billion yuan, up 33.2% year-on-year [1][2] - The beverage business showed steady growth despite increased competition, while the OEM business experienced rapid growth [1][2] Revenue Performance - Beverage revenue in 1H25 increased by 7.6% year-on-year, with tea beverage revenue up 9.1%, and specific products like Double Brew and Spring Green Tea achieving double-digit growth [1] - Food revenue grew by 8.8% year-on-year, with notable contributions from products like Qie Huang and Lao Tan Sauerkraut, which saw double-digit growth [1][2] OEM Business Growth - Other business revenue surged by 91.8% year-on-year, with the OEM business more than doubling, driven by major clients such as Sam's Club and other retail private labels [2] - The expansion of private label brands in retail is expected to sustain growth in the OEM business and enhance market insight capabilities [2] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin improved in 1H25, with an overall increase of 0.5 percentage points, driven by cost reductions and enhanced capacity utilization [2] - The beverage gross margin rose by 1.4 percentage points, while the food gross margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points due to rising palm oil prices, although the company managed to mitigate this through improved capacity utilization [2] Future Outlook - The company anticipates slight pressure on beverage revenue growth in 3Q due to intensified competition, but expects overall steady growth for the year [3] - Profit margins are expected to remain stable in the second half of the year, supported by declining raw material prices and improved capacity utilization [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been raised by 3% to 2.29 billion yuan and 2.62 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The current trading multiples are 16x and 14x for 2025 and 2026 P/E, with a target price of 11.5 HKD, indicating a 24% upside potential [3]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains a "outperform" rating for Uni-President China (00220) with a target price of HKD 11.5, reflecting a 24% upside potential based on projected P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026 [1] Financial Performance - For 1H25, the company reported revenue of CNY 17.087 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 1.287 billion, up 33.2% year-on-year [2] - In Q2 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 685 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.6% [2] Beverage and Food Business Performance - The beverage segment showed resilient performance in a competitive environment, with revenue growth of 7.6% year-on-year in 1H25, despite expected single-digit growth in Q2 due to external factors [3] - Tea beverage revenue increased by 9.1% in 1H25, with double-digit growth for products like "Shuang Cui" and "Chun Fu Green Tea" [3] - The food segment also performed well, with revenue growth of 8.8% year-on-year in 1H25, driven by strong sales of "Qie Huang" and "Lao Tan Sauerkraut" [3] - The company's other business revenue surged by 91.8% year-on-year, primarily due to a significant increase in its OEM business, which doubled in size [3] Margin and Cost Management - The gross margin improved by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year in 1H25, with beverage gross margin up by 1.4 percentage points due to cost reductions and enhanced capacity utilization [4] - The net profit margin increased by 1.3 percentage points to 7.5%, supported by effective cost control measures and a decrease in sales expense ratio by 1.2 percentage points [4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates slight pressure on beverage revenue growth in Q3 due to intensified competition, but expects overall revenue to maintain a steady growth trend for the year [5] - Profitability is expected to remain stable in the second half of the year, benefiting from declining raw material prices and improved capacity utilization [5]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised the profit forecast for Uni-President China (00220) for 2025 and 2026 by 3% to 2.29 billion and 2.62 billion yuan respectively, citing the company's resilient beverage business amid increasing competition [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported 1H25 revenue of 17.087 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.287 billion yuan, up 33.2% year-on-year [2] - In 2Q25, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 685 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.6% [2] Group 2: Beverage Business Performance - The beverage segment achieved a revenue increase of 7.6% year-on-year in 1H25, despite intensified competition [3] - Tea beverage revenue grew by 9.1% year-on-year in 1H25, with double-digit growth in products like Double Brew and Spring Green Tea [3] - Juice and milk tea revenues increased by 1.7% and 3.5% year-on-year respectively, indicating stable growth [3] Group 3: Cost and Profitability - The company's gross margin improved by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year in 1H25, driven by cost reductions and enhanced capacity utilization [3] - The beverage gross margin increased by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the food gross margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points due to rising palm oil prices [3] - The net profit margin rose by 1.3 percentage points to 7.5% in 1H25, supported by effective cost control measures [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the beverage business may face slight pressure in 3Q due to intensified competition, but expects overall steady growth for the year [4] - The company maintains a rational competitive strategy and aims to keep its expense investment steady, which is expected to support stable profit margins in the second half of the year [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its performance relative to the market [2][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in H1 2025, with revenue reaching RMB 17.087 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, and a net profit of RMB 1.287 billion, up 33.2% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [9]. - The upward revision of profit forecasts is attributed to the decline in raw material prices, improved capacity utilization, and cost optimization, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being RMB 2.315 billion, RMB 2.579 billion, and RMB 2.843 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 25%, 11%, and 10% [9]. - The company is recognized as an industry leader, with its food business driving structural upgrades in instant noodles and its beverage segment expanding its multi-category layout [9]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 28.591 billion - 2024: RMB 30.332 billion - 2025E: RMB 32.364 billion - 2026E: RMB 34.473 billion - 2027E: RMB 36.580 billion - The expected growth rates for revenue are 1.2%, 6.1%, 6.7%, 6.5%, and 6.1% respectively [3][10]. - Net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2023: RMB 1.667 billion - 2024: RMB 1.849 billion - 2025E: RMB 2.315 billion - 2026E: RMB 2.579 billion - 2027E: RMB 2.843 billion - The projected year-on-year growth rates for net profit are 36.4%, 11.0%, 25.2%, 11.4%, and 10.2% respectively [3][10]. Business Segment Performance - The food segment achieved a revenue of RMB 5.382 billion in H1 2025, with an 8.8% year-on-year growth, driven primarily by the instant noodle business [9]. - The beverage segment reported a revenue of RMB 10.788 billion, reflecting a 7.6% year-on-year increase, with notable growth in tea, juice, and milk tea categories [9]. Margin and Cost Efficiency - The company achieved a gross margin of 34.32% in H1 2025, an increase of 0.48 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs and improved capacity utilization [9]. - The sales expense ratio decreased to 22.08%, down 1.17 percentage points year-on-year, due to optimized expense management [9].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that the current valuation of Uni-President China (00220) is at 17/15 times the earnings per share for 2025/2026, with a target price raised by 9.5% to HKD 11.5, reflecting a 20% upside potential [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecast - CICC maintains its profit forecast for 2025/2026 at CNY 2.22 billion and CNY 2.54 billion respectively, with expectations of an 8.5% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2025 and a 25% increase in net profit to CNY 1.2 billion, aligning with market expectations [1] - The company is expected to see mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth in its beverage segment in the first half of 2025, despite increased competition, particularly in the iced tea category [2] Group 2: Cost and Profit Margin Analysis - The gross margin for the company improved by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, driven by lower prices for PET and sugar, as well as increased operational efficiency, with expectations for continued improvement in the second quarter [3] - The sales expense ratio decreased by over 0.5 percentage points year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 due to more precise promotional spending, with expectations for a slight decline in overall expense ratio in the first half of 2025, leading to a nearly 1 percentage point increase in net profit margin [3] Group 3: Future Growth and Profitability - The company is expected to maintain its revenue growth momentum in the second half of 2025, supported by strong performance from new products and effective promotional strategies [4] - The gross margin is anticipated to continue its upward trend in the second half of 2025, with a focus on improving product mix and operational efficiency, leading to sustained profit margin improvements throughout the year [4]