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五粮液陷“增长枯竭:177亿库存压顶、价格倒挂近700元?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-11 04:00
Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye is facing a comprehensive development crisis, marked by declining growth momentum, a collapsing pricing system, and a loss of channel confidence, which complicates its path to recovery [2][11] High-End Market Loss - Wuliangye's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 52.771 billion yuan, with a net profit of 19.492 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of only 4.19% and 2.28%, respectively, while Moutai's growth rates were significantly higher at 8.89% and 9.16% [3] - The brand's image has become blurred, particularly among younger consumers who associate Wuliangye with outdated perceptions rather than modern value [3][4] Pricing System Collapse - Wuliangye's core product, the eighth generation of Pu Wu, has seen its factory price rise from 969 yuan to 1,019 yuan, while market prices have dropped below 800 yuan, creating a significant price gap [5] - The company faces a dual problem of supply-demand imbalance and ineffective channel management, leading to a vicious cycle of low prices and reduced dealer confidence [5][6] Inventory Crisis - As of the first half of 2025, Wuliangye's inventory reached 17.746 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase surpassing revenue growth, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [7][8] - The average turnover days for the eighth generation of Pu Wu have increased from 45 days to 60-65 days, with some dealers experiencing turnover periods exceeding three months [8] Response Measures - Wuliangye's measures to address the pricing collapse, such as halting supply and enhancing market control, have not resolved the fundamental issues and have instead heightened market panic [6][10] - The company's reliance on traditional advertising and slow digital transformation has hindered its ability to effectively engage with younger consumers and manage channels [10][11] Industry Context - The white liquor industry has entered an era of "refined operations," where brand strength, channel management, and product innovation are critical for survival [11] - If Wuliangye cannot overcome its current challenges, its position as a leading brand in the high-end liquor market may be jeopardized, potentially leading to a decline in its competitive standing [11]