Core Viewpoint - The "Double 11" sales event for liquor this year has revealed significant price drops and a concentrated reconciliation of channel systems, exceeding industry expectations [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - This year's "Double 11" saw a deeper discounting trend compared to previous years, indicating a release of pent-up emotions within the market [4]. - The core product of Jian Nan Chun, the Crystal Sword, experienced a notable decline in price despite maintaining high sales volume on platforms like Tmall and Meituan [5][6]. - The price of the Crystal Sword fell to around 350 RMB, significantly below its factory price of 410 RMB, due to aggressive subsidies and promotions from various platforms [5][10]. Group 2: Channel and Inventory Issues - The traditional speculative logic in channel management, where products were considered "safe bricks" for investment, has failed during this year's "Double 11" [7]. - Many orders for the Crystal Sword on platforms like Douyin remained unfulfilled post "Double 11," leading to financial losses for resellers who had anticipated selling at a profit [8][9]. - The market in Ningbo, a key area for the Crystal Sword, has seen rapid price changes due to its transparent channel network and high liquidity [12][13]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - Jian Nan Chun's revenue for 2024 is projected at 16.94 billion RMB, with a growth rate of only 3.74%, a significant decline from the previous year's 13.55% [28]. - Achieving the ambitious revenue target of 30 billion RMB by 2025 would require a staggering 77.1% year-on-year growth, which is challenging given the current market conditions [28]. - The brand's growth remains heavily reliant on the Crystal Sword, while its high-end product lines have not yet established a stable consumer base [28][29]. Group 4: Strategic Outlook - The liquor industry is shifting from growth to structural adjustment, with increasing pressure on mid-range price segments and tighter price linkages between e-commerce and offline channels [31]. - Jian Nan Chun faces critical questions regarding restoring channel confidence, re-establishing price order, and ensuring that distributors do not experience repeated concentrated sell-offs [31]. - The ability of Jian Nan Chun to leverage the sales momentum from "Double 11" to enhance brand competitiveness remains to be seen [31].

一、价格倒挂：酒还在路上，钱已经亏完了 今年白酒行业的关键词，只有一个——价格倒挂。 所谓倒挂，就是市场零售价低于经销商的出厂价，经销商一瓶酒未卖就已经注定要亏钱。 "下半年开始，有的品牌我干脆不打款了，"赵先生无奈说，"你想，一个100万打出去，回来的货只值90万，酒在路上就亏10万。边跑边赔，还打它干 嘛？" 更窒息的是：市面上消费者能买到的价格，永远比厂家给经销商的价更低。 消息灵通的，会提前三五天低价抛货；消息慢的，等厂家出新政策才意识到：货已经砸手里了。 库存积压、价格倒挂、现金流吃紧——白酒经销商的"至暗时刻"比想象中来得更快。 "我原本是倒头就睡的人，今年却常常要躺一小时才睡得着。有时喝了酒，凌晨两点还能醒。"做了多年白酒生意的赵先生坦言，面对今年惨淡的行情，他 焦虑得夜不能寐。 别看他一年流水两三个亿，资金成本只有几千万，但真亏起三五百万来，还能撑几年？"赔的都是真金白银。父辈在大城市拼下的家业，我不能折在我手 里。" "一瓶酒卖1000元，经销商最多赚几十块。这价格每天一个价，一掉就是利润没了。" 二、厂家与经销商关系反转：从"抢货"到"摆烂" 高库存让经销商不敢压货。 "以前一批货能卖三个 ...

Core Insights - The white liquor industry is facing significant challenges, with many distributors reporting severe financial losses and cash flow issues due to market saturation and price inversion [3][4][5] - A majority of distributors are struggling to maintain profitability, with over 50% reporting worsening price inversions and more than 40% facing cash flow pressures [3][4] - The relationship between manufacturers and distributors is becoming increasingly strained, as distributors are pressured to make payments for inventory that is rapidly losing value [5][6] Market Conditions - In Q3 2025, 18 out of 20 listed liquor companies reported declining profits, with some experiencing net profit drops exceeding 90% [3] - The market is described as overly saturated, leading to significant price inversions where distributors are forced to sell products at prices lower than their purchase costs [4][5] - Distributors are experiencing a "snowball effect" where the value of their inventory decreases with each new payment made to manufacturers [18][19] Distributor Challenges - Many distributors are reporting that they are unable to sell inventory at profitable prices, with some stating that they are losing money on every sale [4][17] - The pressure to maintain sales volumes is leading to drastic cost-cutting measures, including reducing staff and operational expenses [9][10] - There is a growing trend of distributors considering online sales, but uncertainty about the effectiveness and costs associated with digital marketing remains a concern [9][10] Consumer Behavior - Changes in consumer preferences, particularly among younger demographics, are impacting demand for traditional white liquor, leading to fears about the industry's future [6][11] - The perception of drinking culture is shifting, with younger consumers viewing alcohol consumption as less essential compared to previous generations [11][12] - Distributors believe that the current decline in consumption is temporary and that demand will rebound as younger consumers mature and enter professional environments [21] Financial Outlook - Many distributors are projecting significant losses for the year, with estimates of losses reaching into the millions for some [3][17] - The financial strain is leading to a reevaluation of inventory management and sales strategies, with some distributors opting to reduce their purchase volumes from manufacturers [18][19] - The industry is experiencing a critical juncture where maintaining cash flow and managing inventory effectively are paramount for survival [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is facing significant challenges, with many distributors reporting severe financial losses and market saturation, leading to a shift in the relationship between distributors and manufacturers [5][7][21]. Market Conditions - In Q3 2025, many liquor companies reported poor performance, with 18 out of 20 listed white liquor companies experiencing profit declines, some exceeding 90% [5]. - Over 50% of white liquor distributors reported worsening price inversions, and over 40% faced cash flow pressures [5]. - The market is saturated, with distributors struggling to sell inventory at prices higher than their purchase costs, leading to significant financial losses [5][10]. Distributor Challenges - Distributors are experiencing a "snowball effect" where the value of their inventory decreases with each new payment made to manufacturers, leading to increasing financial strain [21][22]. - Many distributors are reducing their operational scale, cutting staff, and moving to smaller offices to manage costs [12][18]. - The relationship between distributors and manufacturers is becoming strained, with some distributors losing their rights due to refusal to meet high purchase quotas [6][7]. Consumer Behavior - There is a perception that younger consumers are not drinking white liquor, although some distributors believe this is temporary and linked to age rather than a permanent trend [7][25]. - The drinking culture is changing, with fewer consumers viewing drinking as a social obligation, impacting sales [14][25]. Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, some distributors maintain optimism about the long-term viability of the industry, believing that as younger generations mature, they will appreciate the value of white liquor [25]. - The industry is expected to continue facing pressure from online sales and price competition, which may further complicate the market landscape [13][14].

Core Insights - The white liquor distribution industry is facing severe challenges, with many distributors reporting significant losses and cash flow issues due to market saturation and price inversion [3][4][6] - The relationship between distributors and manufacturers is becoming increasingly strained, with many distributors questioning the viability of continuing to make payments for inventory that is rapidly losing value [5][10][21] - There is a growing concern about changing consumer behavior, particularly among younger generations, which may impact the future demand for white liquor [6][12][23] Market Conditions - In Q3 2025, 18 out of 20 publicly listed liquor companies reported declining profits, with some experiencing net profit drops exceeding 90% [3] - Over 50% of white liquor distributors reported worsening price inversions, and over 40% faced cash flow pressures [4] - Distributors are experiencing a "snowball effect" where the value of inventory decreases with each payment made to manufacturers, leading to unsustainable financial practices [19][21] Distributor Challenges - Distributors are struggling with inventory management, with many unable to sell products at prices that cover their costs, leading to significant financial losses [8][19] - The market is characterized by aggressive price competition among distributors, with some selling at a loss to attract customers [15][16] - Many distributors are reducing operational costs and scaling back their business models in response to the challenging market environment [10][14] Consumer Behavior - There is a perception that younger consumers are less interested in white liquor, although some distributors believe this is temporary and linked to age and life circumstances [6][12][23] - The cultural significance of white liquor in social settings is being reevaluated, with a shift towards health consciousness among consumers [12][23] Future Outlook - Distributors are adopting a survival mindset, focusing on maintaining cash flow and reducing expenses rather than pursuing growth [7][10][21] - The industry is at a crossroads, with potential for recovery if consumer preferences shift back towards traditional liquor consumption [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rumors regarding Douyin's new regulations on the sale of Moutai at prices below market value have been denied by Douyin's e-commerce representatives, clarifying that these claims are misinterpretations [1] Group 1: Douyin's Response and Actions - Douyin e-commerce has initiated a special action against false advertising, focusing on the illegal marketing practices of some merchants and influencers who use Moutai for misleading promotions [1] - The platform has identified instances where the selling price of Moutai was below the official factory price, which raised concerns about consumer health and prompted the enforcement actions [1] - Over 100 abnormal low-priced products have been banned, and 52 merchants have faced operational restrictions due to these violations [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Pricing Strategies - On November 10, the price of 53-degree 500ml Moutai varied across different stores, with most prices above 1700 yuan, while some live broadcasts offered prices between 1600 and 1700 yuan [2] - The wholesale reference price for the 2025 vintage of Moutai is reported to be 1640 yuan per bottle, indicating a significant price discrepancy in the market [2] - Major liquor companies, including Guizhou Moutai, have issued statements during the "Double 11" shopping festival to combat the low-price chaos, emphasizing the importance of purchasing through authorized channels [2] - The industry is experiencing high inventory levels and price inversions, leading some merchants to sell at lower prices to alleviate cash flow issues, which disrupts the market pricing system [2] - Despite efforts by liquor companies to control supply and stabilize prices, the trend of price inversions remains challenging, reflecting a shift in the pricing strategy towards controlling volume and supporting prices [2]

11月10日晚，记者在抖音平台搜索飞天茅台53度500毫升产品看到，不同店铺售价不同，售价多在1700 元以上。在当晚的部分直播间，该产品"双11"补贴价格多在单瓶1600多元至1700多元。同日，酒类行情 监测平台"今日酒价"显示，2025年产53度500毫升飞天茅台批发参考价为1640元/瓶。 记者注意到，针对线上低价名酒乱象，今年"双11"大促期间，包括贵州茅台（600519）在内的至少8家 头部酒企以及地方酒企发布告知书与声明，公布官方授权店铺的同时点名部分非授权店铺。一方面，酒 企在声明中直指部分打着"百亿补贴"幌子低价售卖假冒、侵权产品的乱象，提醒消费者通过正规授权渠 道购买；另一方面，此举也被解读为酒企线上的"渠道保卫战"，旨在通过管控渠道秩序实现稳定价格体 系。白酒新一轮周期，库存高企、价格倒挂成为普遍现象，一些酒商低价抛货以缓解现金流紧张，扰乱 了市场价格体系。尽管近两年酒企采取控货稳价措施，却仍难改变价格倒挂趋势。业内人士认为，此举 反映了头部酒企对渠道现状的充分认知，对其核心产品的量价策略也在逐步向控量挺价的方向转变。 对此上述传闻，抖音电商相关负责人予以否认，并提到，近日针对消费者投诉 ...

Core Viewpoint - During this year's "Double 11" shopping festival, at least eight major liquor companies issued statements regarding authorized stores, highlighting the prevalence of counterfeit products sold at low prices under the guise of "billion-dollar subsidies" and emphasizing the need for consumers to purchase through authorized channels [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Response to Counterfeit Products - Major liquor companies, including Moutai and Wuliangye, have collectively issued warnings about unauthorized stores, marking a significant shift in their approach during promotional events [2][3] - Wuliangye reported that 12% of products purchased online were counterfeit, with a significant portion sourced from large e-commerce platforms [2][3] - The industry is increasingly recognizing the risks associated with unauthorized sales channels, which lack product control and traceability, leading to potential quality issues for consumers [3][4] Group 2: Price and Inventory Challenges - The liquor industry is facing high inventory levels and widespread price inversion, with the average inventory turnover days reaching 900 days, a 10% increase year-on-year [6] - Moutai's price has dropped significantly, with a total decline of 36.15% since 2022, reflecting changes in consumer behavior and market conditions [6][7] - The trend of low-priced promotions has exacerbated price inversion issues, forcing liquor companies to reassess their pricing strategies to maintain market stability [7][8] Group 3: Strategic Shift in Pricing Management - Liquor companies are increasingly focusing on controlling prices and stabilizing their pricing systems in response to market pressures [5][8] - Recent financial reports indicate that only a few companies, like Moutai, have seen revenue growth, while most have abandoned annual growth targets to prioritize channel health and price stability [8] - The ongoing losses faced by many distributors are prompting upstream liquor companies to reconsider their volume and pricing strategies to protect their interests [8]

Group 1 - Major liquor companies, including Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, have issued statements during this year's "Double 11" sales event to address unauthorized sales channels and counterfeit products [1][2][3] - The industry is experiencing high inventory levels and price inversion, leading to some distributors selling products at lower prices to alleviate cash flow issues, which disrupts the market price system [1][5][9] - The average inventory turnover days in the industry have reached 900 days, a 10% increase year-on-year, with 60% of companies experiencing price inversion [6][9] Group 2 - Wuliangye has issued multiple consumer notices, revealing that 12% of products tested were counterfeit, with a significant portion sourced from unauthorized channels [2][3] - The price of Moutai has dropped significantly, with a total decline of 36.15% since 2022, reflecting changes in consumer behavior and market conditions [6][7] - The third-quarter financial reports of 20 listed liquor companies show that only Kweichow Moutai and Jiu Gui Jiu achieved revenue growth, indicating a broader trend of declining performance across the industry [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the severe financial downturn of major Chinese liquor companies, particularly Wuliangye, which has experienced unprecedented revenue and profit declines, signaling a significant shift in the industry landscape [5][25]. Financial Performance Summary - Major liquor companies reported disappointing third-quarter results, with Wuliangye's revenue plummeting by 52.66% year-on-year to 81.74 billion yuan, marking its largest quarterly decline since its listing [6][8]. - Wuliangye's net profit fell by 65.62% to 20.19 billion yuan, with a net profit margin dropping from 38.2% to 24.7%, the lowest in nearly a decade [9][12]. - Other companies like Yanghe and Kweichow Moutai also reported significant declines, with Yanghe posting a loss and Kweichow Moutai's profit growth slowing to just 0.48% [5][6]. Internal and External Challenges - The decline in Wuliangye's performance is attributed to a combination of internal mismanagement and external market pressures, creating a "perfect storm" for the company [11][12]. - Wuliangye's strategy of channel inventory pressure led to excessive stock levels, with inventory reaching 5-6 months, forcing distributors to sell at a loss [12][14]. - The company's reliance on a single product line, "Pu Wu," which accounts for over 60% of its revenue, has become a vulnerability in a declining market [16][17]. Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The ongoing "strict ban on alcohol" has severely impacted the consumption of high-end liquor, particularly in government and business settings, which were previously significant revenue drivers [18][22]. - Younger consumers are increasingly turning away from traditional liquor, favoring alternative beverages, which poses a long-term threat to the industry [21][22]. - Economic downturns have led to reduced discretionary spending, further diminishing the market for luxury alcohol products [22][23]. Strategic Implications - The article suggests that the era of relying on channel inventory and government consumption for growth is over, necessitating a reevaluation of business strategies within the industry [25][31]. - Wuliangye's announcement of a significant mid-term dividend aims to stabilize investor confidence, but it may not address the underlying issues of market share and brand reputation [26][27]. - The industry must adapt to changing consumer preferences and economic realities to survive, focusing on rebuilding trust and understanding new consumer demographics [31][32].