Core Insights - The 618 shopping festival has concluded, leading to varied price movements in the white liquor market, with some products experiencing price increases while others continue to decline [1][2][3] Price Trends in Major Cities - In Guangzhou, among 21 sampled white liquor products, 9 saw a decrease in average retail price, while 8 experienced an increase, and 4 remained unchanged [2] - Notably, high-end products like Moutai and Guojiao 1573 have seen price drops, with Moutai's average retail price falling to approximately 2304 RMB, a decrease of about 100 RMB from the previous period [2][3] - In Shenzhen, Moutai's average retail price is reported at 2298.5 RMB, with a notable decline in several high-end products due to ongoing market pressures [7][10] - East Dongguan's market shows a mixed trend, with 9 products increasing in price and 5 decreasing, highlighting the volatility in high-end liquor pricing [12][13] Online vs. Offline Pricing - Online platforms, particularly instant retail channels, are showing lower prices compared to offline supermarkets, with Moutai priced at 2229 RMB online, which is about 75 RMB lower than the overall average [3][8] - The price discrepancies between online and offline channels are significant, with products like Junpin Xijiu and Qinghua Lang being sold for much lower prices online compared to their offline counterparts [3][8] Impact of Regulatory Changes - The ongoing "ban on alcohol" has significantly impacted sales, particularly in high-end segments, leading to price reductions as businesses attempt to stimulate demand [9][10] - The combination of the 618 festival and regulatory changes has created a challenging environment for liquor companies, as they navigate maintaining sales volume and pricing stability [1][17] Summary of Average Prices - The average prices for key products as of July 4th are as follows: - Moutai: 2367.62 RMB [19] - Wuliangye: 1010.27 RMB [19] - Junpin Xijiu: 833.17 RMB [20] - Qinghua Lang: 943.11 RMB [20] - Guojiao 1573: 993.42 RMB [20]

将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 "高端酒卖不动了，普通酒也不那么吃香。" 以下文章来源于快刀财经 ，作者快刀财经编辑部 快刀财经 . 欢迎关注这个洞察商业真相的公号。快刀财经，商业快媒体、思维孵化器、价值试验场和洗欲中心。 喝不喝白酒没关系！但白酒行业确实日子不那么好过。 先看今年618，白酒的价格那叫一个"跌跌不休"。在各大电商平台的补贴"大招"下，茅台、五粮液 等头部产品的"百亿补贴"价，直接击穿了批发价。就拿53度飞天茅台来说，限时补贴后，到手价最 低能到1840元/瓶，跟去年同期比，那可跌了不少。 往远处一点的2025年端午节，济南某经销商望着店内琳琅满目的白酒货架，却丝毫感受不到节日带 来的喜悦，尽管白酒销量勉强与去年持平，客单价却暴跌近60%，且往年备受追捧的头部酒被冷 落，300-600元的产品却成了消费者首选。 作者丨 唐纳德 来源丨 快刀财经 "高端酒卖不动了，普通酒也不那么吃香"，这是一些经销商老板最典型的感叹。 往深处讲，现象背后，透露出的是中国白酒产业的集体阵痛，作为资本市场和食品消费领域的一块核 心资产，白酒尤其是高端白酒一度被赋予消费和收藏属性。 然而，近年来白酒行业 ...

快刀财经 . 欢迎关注这个洞察商业真相的公号。快刀财经，商业快媒体、思维孵化器、价值试验场和洗欲中心。 作者： 唐纳德 来源：快刀财经（ID：kuaidaocaijing） 喝不喝白酒没关系！但白酒行业确实日子不那么好过。 先看今年618， 白酒的价格那叫一个"跌跌不休" 。在各大电商平台的补贴"大招"下，茅台、五 粮液等头部产品的"百亿补贴"价，直接击穿了批发价。就拿53度飞天茅台来说，限时补贴后，到 手价最低能到1840元/瓶，跟去年同期比，那可跌了不少。 往远处一点的2025年端午节，济南某经销商望着店内琳琅满目的白酒货架，却丝毫感受不到节日 带来的喜悦，尽管白酒销量勉强与去年持平，客单价却暴跌近60%，且往年备受追捧的头部酒被 冷落，300-600元的产品却成了消费者首选。 "高端酒卖不动了，普通酒也不那么吃香"，这是一些经销商老板最典型的感叹。 往深处讲， 现象背后，透露出的是中国白酒产业的集体阵痛 ，作为资本市场和食品消费领域的 一块核心资产，白酒尤其是高端白酒一度被赋予消费和收藏属性。 以下文章来源于快刀财经 ，作者快刀财经编辑部 然而，近年来白酒行业在宏观经济放缓和产业周期调整的双重背景下，迎 ...

Core Insights - The e-commerce platform's 618 mid-year promotion has significantly boosted the white wine consumption market while causing price fluctuations in the sector [1] - Despite price volatility, the leading brand, Guizhou Moutai, maintains a strong market presence with prices above 2400 yuan, reaching up to 2800 yuan in some regions, indicating robust consumer demand and brand value recognition [1][6] Price Trends - In Guangzhou, 17 out of 21 sampled white wine products saw a price decrease, while Guizhou Moutai's average price remains at approximately 2404 yuan [2][3] - In Dongguan, Guizhou Moutai's average price increased from 2299 yuan to 2800 yuan, marking a rise of 501 yuan, attributed to unstable supply channels [6][7] Market Dynamics - The demand for Guizhou Moutai in high-end white wine markets remains strong, reflecting its solid consumer base and the essential nature of its products [6] - Consumers are becoming more rational in their purchasing decisions, considering product value beyond just price, which includes social and emotional benefits [6] Strategic Initiatives - Guizhou Moutai is focusing on consumer-centric strategies, enhancing channel collaboration, and optimizing product distribution to address supply-demand mismatches [10] - The company has been adjusting its direct sales policies and exploring new retail channels to improve market access and consumer engagement [10] Industry Outlook - Despite the impact of e-commerce promotions on the white wine market, high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai demonstrate resilience, supported by their strong brand equity and unique value propositions [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the high-end segment represented by Moutai, is experiencing significant price declines and market challenges, raising concerns about its future viability and potential investment opportunities [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Moutai's stock price has dropped from 1645 yuan on May 14 to 1427 yuan, a decline of 13% in one month, reflecting broader struggles within the liquor sector [1]. - Moutai's price has decreased by 45% from its peak of 2608 yuan in 2021, indicating a more severe downturn compared to the 2008 financial crisis [3]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The recent alcohol ban implemented on May 18 has negatively affected the liquor industry, particularly high-end brands, as it restricts business consumption, which previously relied on premium products like Moutai [3]. - The ban's impact has led to a broader decline in the market, with secondary brands like Shanxi Fenjiu and Gujing Gongjiu experiencing a 14% drop in the last 20 days, even more than Moutai [3]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - There is a noticeable divergence within the industry; while high-end brands struggle, some mass-market products are seeing increased sales, indicating a shift from luxury consumption to essential needs [3][4]. - Liquor companies are proactively managing supply to maintain prices, with notable actions such as Wuliangye halting the supply of its eighth-generation product and Yanghe implementing quotas [4]. Group 4: Capital Movements - Despite the stock price decline, Moutai's financing balance has increased by 2 billion yuan, suggesting that some investors are taking advantage of lower prices to buy in [4]. - Major brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao are using bank loans to repurchase their own shares, signaling confidence in the long-term value of the industry [4]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - The liquor sector's current price-to-earnings ratio of 25 is lower than 80% of the time over the past decade, indicating potential undervaluation [4]. - Key indicators for potential recovery include Moutai's price stabilizing above 2200 yuan, improved sales data during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, and signs of policy-driven consumer stimulus [4]. Group 6: Industry Evolution - The liquor industry is undergoing a generational shift, with younger consumers showing less interest in high-alcohol products, prompting brands to innovate with lower-alcohol options and cocktails [4].

Core Insights - The 2025 "618" e-commerce event has set a record for its duration, lasting 37 days from May 13 to June 18, but has seen a decline in consumer enthusiasm and merchant participation compared to previous years [2][3] E-commerce Trends - The current "618" event is characterized by a focus on straightforward discount rules, replacing complex "full reduction" strategies with simpler "direct discounts," aiming to stimulate consumption [3] - Major beneficiaries of this year's "618" include home appliances and consumer electronics, while the white wine category has notably lost its previous popularity [3][4] White Wine Market Dynamics - White wine sales have not featured prominently in the initial sales reports, indicating a significant drop in consumer interest [3][4] - The overall transaction volume for white wine on platforms like Meituan has seen a dramatic increase, with a reported 200-fold growth year-on-year, but this is contrasted by a general decline in participation from white wine merchants [4][8] Merchant Sentiment - Many white wine merchants are losing interest in participating in major e-commerce promotions like "618," preferring to focus on regular promotions or traditional holiday sales [8][9] - The sentiment among merchants is that the extended duration of "618" has diluted its promotional impact, leading to a lack of excitement and lower expectations for sales outcomes [8][9] Pricing and Supply Control - The white wine industry is experiencing a trend of supply control, with manufacturers tightening online supply to stabilize prices, following previous price instability during past promotions [9][10] - Prices for major brands have been observed to decrease during the "618" event, with significant discounts being offered across various platforms [10][13] Conclusion - The white wine sector is facing challenges in adapting to the evolving e-commerce landscape, with a shift in focus towards regular sales strategies rather than reliance on large promotional events [8][9]

在年报中五粮液方面解释称，白酒产业处于深度调整期，产业波动加大、存量竞争加剧。 2024年第一季度和第二季度，五粮液营业收入同比增长11.86%和10.08%，保持着双位数的增长。然而，第三季度、第四季度，五粮液营业收入仅增长 1.39%、2.53%，从而拖累了全年营收增幅。值得注意的是，2024年前三季度，五粮液净利润达249.31亿元，同比增长9.19%。第四季度，五粮液营业收入虽 在增长，但净利润却下降了6.17%，为69.22亿元。 | | | | benefit ( Print . Intent lieves | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2024 年 | 2023 年 | 本年比上年增减 | 2022年 | | 营业收入(元) | 89,175,178,322,70 | 83, 272, 067, 317, 19 | 7.09% | 73,968, 640, 704, 54 | | 归属于上市公司股东的 净利润(元) | 31,853, 172, 533. 98 | 30, 210, 585, 269, 30 | 5.44% | 26, ...