资料图。 五粮液为何跌到行业第三？ 吴楠 在白酒行业的叙事里，"铁打的茅五，流水的老三"曾是延续多年的共识。多年来，贵州茅台以 绝对优势稳居榜首，五粮液则牢牢守住"千年老二"的位置，至于行业第三的席位，始终在泸州 老窖、山西汾酒等企业间轮换，从未对"茅五"的双寡头格局构成实质冲击。 但随着2025年三季报的披露，这一固化多年的格局悄然生变。根据五粮液披露的数据，今年第 三季度公司实现营业收入81.7亿元，同比大幅下降52.66%；归母净利润仅为20.2亿元，同比骤 降65.62%。这组数据不仅创下近20年来最差的单季业绩表现，更直接改写了行业座次——山西 汾酒以89.6亿元的营收反超， 五粮液首次跌至A股白酒上市公司第三位 。 资本市场一片哗然，毕竟，这不仅是数字上的退步，更象征着一个时代标杆的动摇。 但并非毫无征兆。近年来，五粮液管理层频繁变动导致战略衔接断层，渠道矛盾随着库存高 企、价格倒挂尖锐，核心单品"第八代普五"的竞争力受到竞品冲击……诸多问题早已埋下伏 笔，只是在2025年三季度集中爆发。 如今，市场更关心的是：这场业绩"跳水"，究竟是五粮液为优化渠道、稳定价盘而主动承受的 短期阵痛？还是公司盈利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The high-end liquor industry, particularly represented by Wuliangye, is experiencing a significant downturn, with alarming declines in revenue and profit, signaling a broader crisis in the sector [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Wuliangye reported a third-quarter revenue of 8.174 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.66%, and a net profit of 2.019 billion yuan, down 65.62% year-on-year, marking the worst performance in nearly 20 years [1] - The overall revenue and net profit of 19 A-share liquor companies fell to 317.658 billion yuan and 122.69 billion yuan respectively in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a shift from growth to decline [1] Market Dynamics - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has dropped below 1,700 yuan, while Wuliangye's core product "Eighth Generation Pu Wu" has seen its price fall from 950 yuan to between 820 and 855 yuan, reflecting a broader price war in the industry [2] - The demand in the high-end gift market is weakening, leading to significant sales declines during peak seasons like the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [2] Industry Trends - The white liquor market is experiencing a downward shift in price bands, with over 60% of companies facing inventory pressure, particularly in the 500-800 yuan price range [2] - Smaller and regional liquor companies are facing severe challenges, with companies like Kouzi Jiao and Jiu Gui Jiu reporting drastic profit declines, indicating a vicious cycle of falling prices and high inventory [2] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to undergo a significant restructuring, with stronger companies gaining market share while weaker ones may be eliminated or acquired [3] - The resolution of the current crisis hinges on improving supply-demand dynamics, with a focus on stabilizing and increasing prices of key products [3]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with a collective revenue of 317.78 billion yuan for 20 listed liquor companies in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 5.90% [2][4] - Shanxi Fenjiu has surpassed Wuliangye to become the second-largest player in the industry, with a revenue of 8.96 billion yuan in Q3 2025, compared to Wuliangye's 8.17 billion yuan [2][7] - The industry is undergoing structural changes, with a general slowdown in revenue growth and profitability across most companies [4][5] Industry Performance - The overall revenue growth rate for the liquor industry has dropped to a five-year low, with only eight companies achieving double-digit profit growth, while many others reported single-digit or negative growth [4] - Moutai remains the leader with a revenue of 128.45 billion yuan in Q3, but its growth rate has slowed to 6.36% [4] - Wuliangye reported a revenue of 60.95 billion yuan with a decline of 10.26%, while Fenjiu's revenue growth of 5% is notable [4][5] Challenges Faced - The industry is facing several challenges, including rising raw material costs, increased promotional expenses, and deteriorating cash flow due to higher inventory levels among distributors [5] - The cumulative production of liquor from January to September 2025 was 2.655 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%, indicating weak market demand [5] - Wuliangye's performance has been particularly affected by an imbalanced product structure and intensified competition in the mid-range market [8][9] Competitive Landscape - The competition is shifting from scale expansion to quality differentiation, with Fenjiu's rise posing a potential threat to Wuliangye's long-standing position [10][11] - Fenjiu's growth is attributed to the revival of clear aroma liquor, appealing to younger consumers [11][12] - Wuliangye's traditional distribution model is under pressure, leading to increased inventory and financial strain on distributors [8][9] Future Outlook - The liquor industry is expected to undergo a cleansing process, with a potential recovery starting in 2026 as macroeconomic conditions improve [13][14] - The "Matthew Effect" will continue to intensify, favoring leading companies with strong brand power and national distribution [14][15] - Companies that can blend traditional brewing wisdom with modern consumer insights are likely to emerge as winners post-adjustment [15]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing its worst performance in a decade, with most listed companies reporting significant declines in earnings, driven by shrinking consumer demand, high inventory levels, and price inversions [2][5]. Group 1: Performance of Leading Companies - Kweichow Moutai, the industry benchmark, reported a slight increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters, but its third-quarter growth has significantly slowed, with total revenue of 39.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 0.35%, and net profit of 19.22 billion yuan, up 0.56%, marking a recent low [2]. - Wuliangye's third-quarter revenue fell by 52.66% to 8.174 billion yuan, and net profit dropped by 65.62% to 2.019 billion yuan, exceeding the decline seen during the 2013 industry adjustment [3]. - Yanghe's third-quarter revenue decreased by 29.01%, resulting in a loss of 369 million yuan, marking a rare occurrence among leading liquor companies [3]. - Other companies like Kouzi Jiao and Laobaigan also reported significant declines, with Kouzi Jiao's revenue down 46.23% and net profit down 92.55% [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Industry Decline - The decline in the liquor industry is attributed to multiple pressures, including weak consumer demand and changes in consumption patterns, particularly among younger consumers who prefer lower-alcohol beverages [5][6]. - Regulatory changes, such as restrictions on high-end liquor at official events, have further reduced high-end consumption scenarios [5]. - High inventory levels are a critical issue, with Kouzi Jiao's inventory reaching 6.218 billion yuan, indicating a lack of enthusiasm among distributors [6]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments and Market Outlook - Major companies are adjusting their strategies in response to the downturn, with Kweichow Moutai emphasizing internationalization and sustainable development, and planning significant stock buybacks to stabilize share prices [6][7]. - Wuliangye is seeking new growth avenues by launching lower-alcohol products and enhancing brand marketing efforts [7]. - The survival of smaller companies is becoming increasingly challenging, as exemplified by the delisting risk faced by Shanghai Gui Jiu, which relied heavily on high-end marketing strategies [7]. - The industry is expected to continue facing challenges until 2026, with ongoing pressures from inventory management and weak demand [8].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Wuliangye on the second day of the Double 11 pre-sale highlights the company's response to significant challenges in the liquor industry, including price declines, channel disruptions, and performance pressures, under the guise of "protecting consumer rights" [1] Group 1: Pricing and Sales Dynamics - Continuous price declines are the main reason for Wuliangye's strong statement, particularly concerning its core product, the eighth generation of Pu Wuliangye, which has a factory price of 1019 yuan and an official retail price of 1499 yuan, while actual transaction prices in unauthorized e-commerce stores are lower [2] - The traditional distribution model, which has been Wuliangye's foundation, is showing signs of fatigue, with revenue growth from this model only at 1.2% in the first half of 2025, and a corresponding decline in gross margin by 1 percentage point, alongside a decrease in the number of distributors [2] Group 2: E-commerce and Counterfeit Issues - Data from Wuliangye indicates that in the first five months of 2025, 16.65% of the 1610 product authentication services provided to e-commerce consumers identified counterfeit products, an increase from 12% during the previous year's Double 11 period, with many counterfeits originating from platforms [2] Group 3: Industry Context and Performance Pressure - Wuliangye faces increasing performance pressure, with only 52.77 billion yuan in revenue achieved in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 4.19%, which is concerning as 2025 is a critical year for the company to reach its 100 billion yuan revenue target [2] - The price fluctuations during Double 11 are merely a symptom of a deeper adjustment period in the liquor industry, where inventory turnover days have reached 900 days, and 60% of companies are facing price inversions, particularly affecting the 800-1500 yuan price range, which is crucial for Wuliangye [2] - The outcome of this price defense battle is not only vital for Wuliangye's revenue goals but also determines the market share and brand value of the second-largest player in the liquor industry during a period of intense competition [2]

Core Insights - The core message of the article highlights the challenges faced by Wuliangye as it navigates a turbulent market environment characterized by price declines, channel disarray, and performance pressures, prompting the company to take a strong stance against unauthorized sales channels [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Wuliangye's announcement of a list of 46 unauthorized stores across major platforms like Douyin and JD.com reflects a proactive approach to protect consumer rights amid a backdrop of price erosion [1]. - The price of Wuliangye's core product, the eighth generation of Pu Wu, has seen significant discrepancies, with the factory price set at 1019 yuan and the official retail price at 1499 yuan, while unauthorized sellers are offering it for as low as 750 yuan per bottle [1]. - The company is facing a critical situation with its wholesale price dropping to approximately 820 yuan, which is significantly below the factory price, indicating a serious pricing conflict [1]. Group 2: Sales Channels and Challenges - The traditional distribution model for Wuliangye is showing signs of fatigue, with revenue growth from this channel only at 1.2% in the first half of 2025, alongside a decline in gross margin [2]. - The rise of e-commerce channels has exacerbated market confusion, with platforms offering substantial subsidies that complicate supply chain transparency and increase the risk of counterfeit products [2]. - Data from Wuliangye indicates that 16.65% of products sold through e-commerce channels were counterfeit, a rise from 12% during the previous year's Double 11 shopping festival, highlighting the risks associated with low-priced offerings [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Strategic Responses - Wuliangye's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 52.77 billion yuan, reflecting a modest year-on-year growth of 4.19%, indicating mounting performance pressures [3]. - In response to these challenges, Wuliangye has implemented measures to stabilize prices, including controlling shipment volumes and increasing scrutiny on low-price sales practices among distributors [3]. - The broader context of the liquor industry reveals that 60% of companies are facing price inversions, with inventory turnover days reaching 900, underscoring the significant challenges within the market [3].

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Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the consumer staples sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - The wholesale prices of Baijiu have mostly declined, with notable decreases in prices for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, while prices for most consumer goods remain stable [4][10]. - The report highlights a significant drop in the discount rates for liquid milk products, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [6][18]. - Overall, the report suggests that the impact of funds is greater, advising attention to low-position stocks and heavyweight stocks in the consumer staples sector [8]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Pricing - Guizhou Moutai's wholesale prices for Feitian (case and single bottle) are 1790 and 1770 yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 55 and 70 yuan from the previous month [4][37]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price is 895 yuan, down 25 yuan from last month [4][37]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 price increased by 10 yuan to 850 yuan [4][37]. Consumer Goods Pricing - The average discount rate for liquid milk products decreased from 74.8% to 69.4% since the end of August [6][21]. - Discount rates for soft drinks, condiments, instant foods, and beer remained stable, with slight variations in average and median values [19][35]. - The report notes that the discount rate for infant formula products also showed a minor decrease from 89.5% to 88.7% [21][35]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring low-position stocks and heavyweight stocks due to the greater impact of funds on the market [8].

Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye is facing a comprehensive development crisis, marked by declining growth momentum, a collapsing pricing system, and a loss of channel confidence, which complicates its path to recovery [2][11] High-End Market Loss - Wuliangye's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 52.771 billion yuan, with a net profit of 19.492 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of only 4.19% and 2.28%, respectively, while Moutai's growth rates were significantly higher at 8.89% and 9.16% [3] - The brand's image has become blurred, particularly among younger consumers who associate Wuliangye with outdated perceptions rather than modern value [3][4] Pricing System Collapse - Wuliangye's core product, the eighth generation of Pu Wu, has seen its factory price rise from 969 yuan to 1,019 yuan, while market prices have dropped below 800 yuan, creating a significant price gap [5] - The company faces a dual problem of supply-demand imbalance and ineffective channel management, leading to a vicious cycle of low prices and reduced dealer confidence [5][6] Inventory Crisis - As of the first half of 2025, Wuliangye's inventory reached 17.746 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase surpassing revenue growth, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [7][8] - The average turnover days for the eighth generation of Pu Wu have increased from 45 days to 60-65 days, with some dealers experiencing turnover periods exceeding three months [8] Response Measures - Wuliangye's measures to address the pricing collapse, such as halting supply and enhancing market control, have not resolved the fundamental issues and have instead heightened market panic [6][10] - The company's reliance on traditional advertising and slow digital transformation has hindered its ability to effectively engage with younger consumers and manage channels [10][11] Industry Context - The white liquor industry has entered an era of "refined operations," where brand strength, channel management, and product innovation are critical for survival [11] - If Wuliangye cannot overcome its current challenges, its position as a leading brand in the high-end liquor market may be jeopardized, potentially leading to a decline in its competitive standing [11]

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with some companies showing growth while others face challenges due to market adjustments and inventory pressures [2][8][9]. Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 0.81%, while the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index decreased by 1.5% during the specified period [1]. - The top five gaining stocks included Huanlejia, Gaisi Food, Qianwei Yangchu, Baihe Co., and Huifa Food [1]. Institutional Insights - Open-source Securities suggests focusing on three lines: national mid-to-high-end recovery, regional leaders, and high-end liquor valuation recovery [2]. - Key companies to watch include Shede Liquor, Shanxi Fenjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, and Moutai, with a focus on new consumption trends and channels [2]. - Huachuang Securities recommends exploring new opportunities in the health product sector, particularly H&H International and Xianle Health [3]. Industry Trends - The liquor industry is undergoing a rational adjustment, with companies like Moutai and Zhenjiu Liudu exploring new paths to enhance market reach [7]. - The white liquor sector is seeing a significant inventory issue, with 20 listed liquor companies holding nearly 170 billion yuan in inventory, leading to cash flow pressures for some mid-tier companies [9]. Company Developments - Wuliangye has launched a promotional campaign allowing car buyers to purchase its liquor at a 25% discount [10][11]. - Yingjia Gongjiu has established a new sales company to enhance its market presence [12]. - Jiusuan Co. has adjusted its growth strategy, focusing on maintaining market share rather than absolute growth [13]. Macro Events - The Chinese warehousing index for August was reported at 49.3%, indicating a decline in new orders and a slowdown in goods turnover, which may impact the food and beverage sector [4]. - The emergence of H5N1 avian influenza in the UK could have implications for poultry-related food products [5]. Financial Metrics - The financial performance of the liquor industry shows a significant disparity, with 15 out of 21 listed companies reporting revenue declines, while only six managed to achieve growth [8]. - The industry is expected to face continued challenges, with some analysts predicting a prolonged adjustment period before recovery [8]. Inventory and Capacity Issues - Many liquor companies are struggling with high inventory levels, with some facing a six-year inventory turnover cycle, which could further strain cash flow [9]. - Despite low capacity utilization rates, some companies continue to expand production, raising concerns about future inventory management [9].