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海外消费周报(20251121-20251128):海外社服:携程和同程旅行3Q25业绩稳健增长-20251128
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-28 09:02
Group 1: Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel, indicating a positive outlook on their performance in the online travel industry [1][2][5][6]. Group 2: Core Insights - Ctrip's Q3 2025 revenue increased by 16% year-on-year to 18.4 billion yuan, with non-GAAP operating profit reaching 6.1 billion yuan, exceeding expectations due to lower marketing expenses [1][5]. - Tongcheng Travel reported a 10% year-on-year revenue growth to 5.5 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with adjusted net profit rising 17% to 1.06 billion yuan, driven by better-than-expected accommodation business performance [2][6]. - Ctrip's accommodation booking revenue grew by 18%, transportation revenue by 12%, and international OTA platform bookings increased by over 60% year-on-year [1][5]. - Tongcheng Travel's core OTA business revenue grew by 15%, with accommodation booking revenue also up by 15%, benefiting from increased hotel average prices and record daily room nights [2][6]. - Ctrip's international hotel and flight bookings have increased by 140% compared to 2019, while Tongcheng Travel expects outbound travel business to grow rapidly, contributing 10-15% to overall revenue by 2027 [1][2][5][6]. Group 3: Summary by Sections Section 1: Overseas Social Services - Ctrip's Q3 2025 performance shows strong growth across various segments, with significant increases in international bookings and a solid market position in China [1][5]. - Tongcheng Travel's performance reflects a robust growth trajectory, particularly in accommodation and outbound travel, with a strong user base [2][6]. Section 2: Overseas Pharmaceuticals - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group reported a 12.3% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, totaling 19.89 billion yuan, but showed a 3.4% revenue growth in Q3 [3][10]. - The company's net profit for Q3 2025 increased by 27.2% to 964 million yuan, aligning with expectations despite a decline in overall revenue for the year [3][10]. Section 3: Overseas Education - The education index saw a 2% increase, with a year-to-date growth of 7.3%, indicating a recovery in the sector [4][16]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for private higher education companies, with expectations of improved profitability and growth potential [4][18].
海外消费周报:海外社服:携程和同程旅行3Q25业绩稳健增长-20251128
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-28 08:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the online travel industry [2][3]. Core Insights - Ctrip's 3Q25 revenue increased by 16% year-on-year to 18.4 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP operating profit of 6.1 billion yuan, exceeding expectations due to lower marketing expenses [2][7]. - Tongcheng Travel's 3Q25 revenue grew by 10% year-on-year to 5.5 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit rising 17% to 1.06 billion yuan, driven by better-than-expected accommodation business performance [3][8]. - Both companies are expected to benefit from the recovery in outbound tourism, with Ctrip's international OTA platform bookings increasing over 60% year-on-year and inbound tourism bookings more than doubling [2][7]. - The report highlights the stability of the online travel industry and the potential for market share growth for both companies, particularly in international markets [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Social Services: Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel 3Q25 Performance - Ctrip's accommodation booking revenue rose by 18%, transportation revenue by 12%, and business travel management revenue by 15% [2][7]. - Tongcheng Travel's core OTA business revenue increased by 15%, with accommodation booking revenue also up by 15% [3][8]. - Both companies are positioned well for future growth, particularly in outbound travel, with expectations for international flight and hotel contributions to increase significantly by 2027 [3][8]. 2. Overseas Pharmaceuticals: CSPC Pharmaceutical Group - CSPC's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 12.3% to 19.89 billion yuan, but third-quarter revenue grew by 3.4% to 6.62 billion yuan, aligning with expectations [4][13]. - The report notes a decline in gross margin and a decrease in the contribution of the prescription drug segment to total sales [4][13]. 3. Overseas Education: Profitability Management Conditions Mature - The education index rose by 2% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 7.3% [19]. - The report suggests focusing on Hong Kong higher education companies, anticipating a recovery in profitability and expansion potential [21][29].