Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876.HK) [5] Core Views - Budweiser APAC's Q2 2025 revenue was $1.675 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 3.9% [1] - Normalized EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $498 million, down 4.5% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was $175 million, reflecting a 31.1% decrease [1] - The company is focusing on optimizing product structure, which has led to an increase in ton price and gross margin despite pressure on sales volume [2][3] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Q2 2025 sales volume was 23.887 million kiloliters, down 6.2% year-on-year, while revenue per hectoliter increased by 2.4% [2] - Gross margin for Q2 2025 was 51.8%, up 0.71 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company experienced a decline in sales across both eastern and western regions of Asia-Pacific, with notable performance in high-end products in India [2] Regional Analysis - In the western Asia-Pacific region, revenue and normalized EBITDA saw a year-on-year decline of 2.7% and an increase of 1.4%, respectively, with sales volume down 5.6% [2] - The eastern Asia-Pacific region faced a more significant decline, with revenue and normalized EBITDA down 8.4% and 26.5%, respectively, and sales volume down 10.4% [2] Inventory Management - The company has been actively managing inventory, with Q2 2025 inventory levels lower than the previous year and significantly below the industry average [3] - The focus on non-immediate consumption channels has contributed to growth in high-end product sales [3] Financial Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down to $690 million, $737 million, and $782 million, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 8% for 2025 and 2026 [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 20x for 2025, 19x for 2026, and 18x for 2027, indicating a favorable outlook in the high-end market segment [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876.HK) [6] Core Views - Budweiser APAC's Q1 2025 performance was impacted by the Chinese market, with revenue of $1.461 billion, a year-on-year decline of 7.5% [1] - The company is focusing on high-end and super high-end products, particularly in the Indian market, which showed growth despite overall challenges [3][4] - The report anticipates continued pressure in the Chinese market but sees potential recovery in the second half of 2025 as inventory issues are resolved [4] Revenue and Profitability - Q1 2025 revenue was $1.461 billion, with normalized EBITDA of $485 million, and net profit of $234 million, reflecting declines of 11.2% and 18.5% year-on-year respectively [1] - The company achieved a gross margin of 51.0% in Q1 2025, with a normalized EBITDA margin of 33.2% [2] Regional Performance - Eastern region showed positive growth with revenue and normalized EBITDA increasing by 11.7% and 24.4% year-on-year, while the Western region faced declines of 11.7% and 17.6% respectively [3] - In China, revenue and normalized EBITDA fell by 12.7% and 17.1% year-on-year, with a volume decline of 9.2% [4] Future Projections - The report has revised down net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to $752 million, $797 million, and $841 million, reflecting adjustments of 5%, 7%, and 8% respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 19x for 2025, 18x for 2026, and 17x for 2027 [4]