点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 受业务布局及渠道影响，25Q1中国地区表现较弱 25Q1中国地区收入及正常化EBITDA内生同比-12.7%/-17.1%；销量内生同比-9.2%，每百升收入内生同 比-3.9%。受到业务布局和即饮渠道的表现持续疲弱、以及库存管理措施的影响，25Q1中国地区销量同比 下降；由于基数较高，加上区域和渠道组合不利的影响，收入亦同比减少。受营收同比下降及营运去杠杆 化影响，25Q1中国地区正常化EBITDA同比下降。公司专注非即饮渠道，以带动高端化，该渠道25Q1带来 的销量和收入贡献均取得同比增长。公司加强与年轻消费者的互动，25Q1零糖哈尔滨冰极纯生销量同比 +70%。25H1中国市场仍处于去库存阶段，销量压力预计仍较大，随着库存去化逐步完成，25H2渠道结构 有望回归正常。 风险提示： 渠道掌控力减弱；市场竞争加剧；原材料上涨超预期。 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876.HK) [6] Core Views - Budweiser APAC's Q1 2025 performance was impacted by the Chinese market, with revenue of $1.461 billion, a year-on-year decline of 7.5% [1] - The company is focusing on high-end and super high-end products, particularly in the Indian market, which showed growth despite overall challenges [3][4] - The report anticipates continued pressure in the Chinese market but sees potential recovery in the second half of 2025 as inventory issues are resolved [4] Revenue and Profitability - Q1 2025 revenue was $1.461 billion, with normalized EBITDA of $485 million, and net profit of $234 million, reflecting declines of 11.2% and 18.5% year-on-year respectively [1] - The company achieved a gross margin of 51.0% in Q1 2025, with a normalized EBITDA margin of 33.2% [2] Regional Performance - Eastern region showed positive growth with revenue and normalized EBITDA increasing by 11.7% and 24.4% year-on-year, while the Western region faced declines of 11.7% and 17.6% respectively [3] - In China, revenue and normalized EBITDA fell by 12.7% and 17.1% year-on-year, with a volume decline of 9.2% [4] Future Projections - The report has revised down net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to $752 million, $797 million, and $841 million, reflecting adjustments of 5%, 7%, and 8% respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 19x for 2025, 18x for 2026, and 17x for 2027 [4]