（作者｜周琦 编辑｜张广凯） 2月中旬，全球啤酒龙头百威英博发布了2025年业绩。 值得注意的是，这份财报呈现出一种"分裂感"。 从全球看，这是一份相当漂亮的成绩单。尽管其总营收593.20亿美元（约合4237亿元人民币）因汇率波 动同比微降0.8%，但归母净利润却逆势大增16.8%，达到68.37亿美元（约合488亿元人民币）。 在啤酒消费整体疲软、全球销量下滑2.3%的年份，百威通过"高端化+数字化"的组合拳，EBITDA利润 率同比提升101个基点至35.8%。 然而，将镜头拉近到亚太，尤其是中国市场，画面却瞬间切换。 同日发布的百威亚太年报显示，公司2025年收入57.64亿美元，同比减少6.1%；股权持有人应占溢利 4.89亿美元，同比骤降32.6%。 作为核心引擎的中国市场，全年收入大跌11.3%，销量下滑8.6%，每百升收入也减少3.0%。 更聪明地卖酒 2025年，百威英博的全球总销量实际上同比下降了2.3%，但就是在少卖酒的情况下，净利润却增长了 近17%。 钱从哪里来？ 这已是百威亚太连续第四年净利润下滑，且中国市场已是连续第二年双位数下滑。 曾经在中国高端啤酒市场呼风唤雨、毛利率一度稳压 ...

Core Insights - Budweiser APAC achieved a total revenue of $5.764 billion in 2025, with an organic year-on-year decline of 6.1% [1] - The normalized EBITDA for 2025 was $1.588 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% [1] - In Q4 2025, revenue reached $1.073 billion, with an organic year-on-year decline of 4.2% [1] Revenue and EBITDA Analysis - For the full year 2025, the company reported a sales volume of 7.9658 million kiloliters, down 6.0% year-on-year, while Q4 sales volume was 1.3518 million kiloliters, down 0.7% [1] - The revenue per hectoliter for the full year 2025 decreased by 0.2%, and for Q4, it decreased by 3.5% [1] - The gross margin for 2025 was 50.1%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points year-on-year, while the normalized EBITDA margin was 27.6%, a decrease of 1.13 percentage points year-on-year [1] Regional Performance - In the Western Asia-Pacific region, Q4 2025 sales volume showed a slight organic growth of 0.1%, but revenue and revenue per hectoliter declined by 5.6% and 5.7% respectively, with normalized EBITDA down 40.0% [2] - India emerged as a growth highlight, with high-end and super high-end products accounting for over two-thirds of total revenue and contributing over 20% to revenue growth [2] - In the Eastern Asia-Pacific region, Q4 2025 revenue showed a slight organic decline of 0.6%, with sales volume down 3.7% but revenue per hectoliter up 3.2% [2] China Market Focus - The Chinese market faced continued pressure, with Q4 2025 sales volume down 3.9% due to weak on-premise channels and delayed Lunar New Year shipments [3] - The company plans to increase investment in channel and product mix expansion, with Q4 2025 revenue down 11.4% year-on-year [3] - The company aims to revitalize its market share in China as a core focus for 2026, with strategies including enhancing high-end and digital channel penetration [4] Future Strategies and Forecasts - For 2026, the company will increase commercial investment as a percentage of net revenue, focusing on core and emerging channels [4] - The profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been revised down to $621 million and $680 million respectively, reflecting a decrease of 9% and 7% [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 21x for 2026, 20x for 2027, and 18x for 2028, with a maintained "buy" rating based on competitive advantages in high-end and super high-end segments [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876.HK) with a current price of HKD 7.83 [1] Core Insights - Budweiser APAC reported a revenue of USD 5.764 billion for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.1%. The normalized EBITDA was USD 1.588 billion, down 9.8% year-on-year. In Q4 2025, revenue was USD 1.073 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 4.2% [5] - The company plans to distribute dividends of USD 750 million for 2025, unchanged from 2024 [5] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - For 2025, Budweiser APAC achieved a total sales volume of 796.58 million hectoliters, down 6.0% year-on-year. The revenue per hectoliter for the year decreased by 0.2% [5] - In Q4 2025, the sales volume was 135.18 million hectoliters, with a slight decline of 0.7% year-on-year. Revenue per hectoliter fell by 3.5% [5] Regional Performance - In the Western Asia-Pacific region, Q4 2025 sales volume grew by 0.1% year-on-year, but revenue and revenue per hectoliter declined by 5.6% and 5.7%, respectively. Normalized EBITDA in this region fell by 40.0% year-on-year [6] - The Indian market showed strong growth, with high-end and super high-end products accounting for over two-thirds of total revenue, contributing more than 20% to revenue growth [6] - In the Eastern Asia-Pacific region, Q4 2025 revenue declined by 0.6% year-on-year, with sales volume down 3.7%. Revenue per hectoliter increased by 3.2% [6] China Market Focus - The Chinese market remains under pressure, with Q4 2025 sales volume down 3.9% year-on-year, primarily due to weak on-the-go channels and delayed shipments related to the Lunar New Year [7] - The company is increasing investments in channel and product mix expansion, focusing on high-end and digital channel strategies for 2026 [8] Profitability Forecast - The report lowers the net profit forecast for 2026 and 2027 to USD 621 million and USD 680 million, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 9% and 7% [8] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 21x for 2026, 20x for 2027, and 18x for 2028, indicating a favorable outlook for the company's competitive advantage in high-end and super high-end segments [8]

Core Viewpoint - Budweiser APAC reported a significant decline in performance for 2025, with total sales down 6.0% to 79.658 million hectoliters, revenue falling 6.1% to $5.764 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders plummeting 32.6% to $489 million, indicating unprecedented growth pressures on the company [2][17]. Financial Performance - The company has experienced a continuous decline in net profit for four consecutive years, with revenue decreasing for two years despite growth potential in the Asia-Pacific beer market [2][17]. - Normalized EBITDA for 2025 was $1.588 billion, a decrease of 9.8%, with the corresponding profit margin dropping 113 basis points to 27.6% [2][17]. - Basic earnings per share fell from 5.51 cents to 3.70 cents, reflecting a weakening profitability that has eroded investor confidence [2][17]. Market Dynamics - The Chinese market, once a core growth engine, saw sales drop 8.6% and revenue decline 11.3% in 2025, significantly underperforming compared to overall company metrics [4][19]. - The company’s reliance on immediate consumption channels has been detrimental, as foot traffic in these areas has decreased, directly impacting sales [21]. - Despite efforts to expand non-immediate consumption channels and O2O strategies, these investments have temporarily reduced profitability [22][23]. Regional Performance - The western Asia-Pacific region, including China and India, reported a 6.7% decline in sales and an 8.2% drop in revenue, while the eastern markets achieved a slight revenue increase of 1.3% but experienced a minor sales decline [10][25]. - The strong performance in the Indian market, which contributed over 20% revenue growth, was insufficient to offset declines in the Chinese and Korean markets, highlighting a lack of regional synergy [10][25]. Internal and External Challenges - Internal issues include mismatches in channels, products, and organizational structure, with a high dependency on immediate consumption channels and slow responses to changing consumer trends [26]. - Externally, increasing competition from local brands and macroeconomic fluctuations have further pressured the company’s market position [26][27]. Strategic Adjustments - Budweiser APAC aims to regain growth momentum by focusing on market share recovery in China, enhancing product innovation in core and premium segments, and accelerating digital transformation through the BEES platform [28]. - The company plans to invest in the Korean market for profit margin expansion and target India as a key growth driver, while also exploring acquisition opportunities in Southeast Asia [28][29]. - The board has proposed maintaining a stable dividend of 5.66 cents per share, reflecting confidence in long-term growth despite current performance challenges [29].

21世纪经济报道记者肖夏 国际啤酒巨头正在陆续交底。 北京时间2月11日下午、2月12日早间，喜力集团、百威亚太先后披露了2025年的全年业绩，整体都呈现增速放缓、销量下行的趋势。 按照国际财务报告准则，喜力集团2025年实现净收入287.53亿欧元，净利润18.85亿欧元，连续两年同比下跌，销量也再次转为下滑。为此，喜力集团已经调 低2026年的增长预期，并提出要节省4至5亿欧元的成本，具体举措包括裁员5000至6000人。 而百威亚太2025年实现收入57.64亿美元，同比内生下滑6.1%，正常化除息税折旧摊销前盈利（Normalised EBITDA）15.88亿美元，同比内生下滑9.8%，其 中股权持有人应占溢利4.89亿美元，同比大幅下滑32%以上——这一净利润表现，是百威亚太上市以来的新低。 百威英博尚未披露全球业绩，但从其去年三季报和百威亚太的全年业绩来看，百威去年整体的业绩大概率仍处于下行区间。 酒卖不动，如今已不是单独一家企业的问题。面对这一局面持续，龙头正在纷纷采取换帅、裁员、降本、控预期等一系列举措。 喜力降本连环招：降速、裁员、关停 尽管在中国市场高歌猛进，喜力在全球整体依然面临着降速 ...

记者丨肖夏 百威英博尚未披露全球业绩，但从其去年三季报和百威亚太的全年业绩来看，百威去年整体的业绩大概率仍处于下行区间。 酒卖不动，如今已不是单独一家企业的问题。面对这一局面持续，龙头正在纷纷采取换帅、裁员、降本、控预期等一系列举措。 喜力降本连环招：降速、裁员、关停 尽管在中国市场高歌猛进，喜力在全球整体依然面临着降速现实。 2月11日，喜力集团（Heineken）发布2025年全年业绩报告，按照IFRS口径全年业绩呈现"销售收入、运营利润、销量齐降"的局面——去年收 入同比下滑4.7%、其中净收入同比下滑3.6%，运营利润同比下滑3.2%，销量同比下滑1.2%。 编辑丨高梦阳 国际啤酒巨头正在陆续交底。 北京时间2月11日下午、2月12日早间，喜力集团、百威亚太先后披露了2025年的全年业绩，整体都呈现增速放缓、销量下行的趋势。 按照国际财务报告准则，喜力集团2025年实现净收入287.53亿欧元，净利润18.85亿欧元，连续两年同比下跌，销量也再次转为下滑。 为此， 喜力集团已经调低2026年的增长预期，并提出要节省4至5亿欧元的成本，具体举措包括裁员5000至6000人。 而百威亚太2025年实现收入 ...

本文为食品内参原创 作者丨佑木 编审丨橘子 上市六年，百威亚太的啤酒高端化叙事讲不下去了？ 值得注意的是，2025年，百威在中国市场的啤酒销量下滑了8.6%，营收下滑11.3%，每百升收入减少 3.0%。 败给"性价比" 2月12日早间，百威亚太在港交所发布公告。2025财政年度公司总销量减少6.0%；收入为57.64亿美元 （约合人民币398.29亿元），同比减少6.1%，或按呈报基准计减少7.7%，每百升收入则减少0.2%。 百威亚太股权持有人应占正常化溢利由2024财政年度的7.78亿美元（约合人民币53.76亿元）下降至2025 财政年度的6.66亿美元（约合人民币46.02亿元）。董事会建议本公司向股东派发截至2025年12月31日止 年度的末期股息每股5.66美分（约合人民币0.39元）。 百威亚太怎么了？ 要读懂百威的困境，必须回溯其母公司百威英博背后的3G资本。3G资本的核心逻辑简单粗暴，通过并 购获得统治地位，然后通过极致的成本压缩挤压出每一分钱的利润，即"零基预算"（ZBB）。 这种管理逻辑曾让百威亚太在过去十年里拥有了行业最高的EBITDA利润率（常年维持在30%以上）， 但也为今日的颓 ...

于2025财政年度，收入减少6.1%，或按呈报基准计减少7.7%，每百升收入则减少 0.2%，主要由于公司 在中国的表现，但被亚太地区东部的收入管理措施及于印度的正面地域组合所部分抵销。 智通财经APP讯，百威亚太(01876)发布截至2025年12月31日止年度业绩，收入57.64亿美元，同比减少 7.7%;百威亚太股权持有人应占溢利4.89亿美元，同比减少32.6%;每股基本盈利3.70美分。 总销量于2025年全年(2025财政年度)减少6.0%，受公司在中国的业务布局影响，但被印度的表现所部分 抵销。 在2025年第四季度，公司在中国的销量及市场份额趋势保持稳定，与行业因受到较迟的农历新年发货安 排所影响而表现放缓的情况相符。随着公司开始加大对渠道及产品组合扩张的投资，百威的品牌影响力 有所提升，同时为该季度带来额外的获利压力。在韩国，公司在即饮及非即饮渠道中的表现优于市场水 平，整体每百升净收入持续增长。在印度，公司的高端化策略取得进展，并实现强劲的双位数收入增 长，从而获得总市场份额扩张。 首席执行官及联席主席程衍俊表示："2025年，我们在中国的业绩未尽潜能。我们已采取了明确措施， 加强非即饮渠 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable investment rating for the Chinese liquor industry, indicating that the overall credit quality of the industry is not expected to change significantly in the next 12 to 18 months [5]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions and per capita income levels. Recent years have seen consumption pressures due to economic slowdown, low investment, and policy restrictions, leading to negative revenue and profit growth for large-scale enterprises [6][8]. - The white liquor sector has been experiencing a continuous decline in production since 2017, with a "volume and price drop" scenario expected to persist into 2025 due to high inventory and slow market movement [6][14]. - The beer industry remains stable with high market concentration, but faces challenges from reduced consumption in dining and entertainment venues. The trend towards product premiumization and innovation continues to drive growth [5][26]. - Overall, the liquor industry is under pressure from weak economic recovery and consumption policies, with expectations of continued downward pressure on revenue and profits in the future [10][39]. Summary by Sections Key Points - The liquor industry's demand is significantly affected by macroeconomic conditions and per capita income. Recent economic factors have led to a decline in revenue and profit growth for large-scale enterprises [6][9]. - White liquor production has been decreasing since 2017, with a projected "volume and price drop" scenario continuing into 2025 due to high inventory levels and slow market activity [14][25]. - The beer industry maintains a high concentration level, with stable production capacity utilization. However, the reduction in dining and entertainment venues has negatively impacted beer consumption [26][37]. Analytical Approach - The analysis focuses on the credit fundamentals of the liquor industry, examining key indicators affecting consumption since 2025, including disposable income, consumer confidence, and policy adjustments [7]. Industry Fundamentals - The liquor industry's demand is closely linked to macroeconomic conditions and disposable income levels. Recent years have seen consumption pressures due to economic slowdown and policy restrictions [8][9]. - The white liquor sector has been facing a continuous decline in production, with a significant drop in output expected in 2025 due to high inventory and slow market movement [14][25]. Financial Performance - Since 2025, white liquor enterprises have generally experienced significant declines in operating performance, while beer companies have benefited from optimized product structures [39][40]. - The overall debt levels of liquor companies are low, and while debt service indicators have declined, they remain favorable. Group companies have access to financing channels that support their debt repayment capabilities [39][40].

Core Viewpoint - Fujian province, with a population of over 40 million, is a key battleground for the beer market in China, boasting the highest per capita consumption in the country. The region has been recognized internationally as a "World Wine Specialty Region - China Beer Manufacturing City," reflecting the transformation of traditional industries towards high-quality development [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Transformation - The beer industry in Putian has evolved from a focus on scale expansion to an emphasis on quality improvement and brand development, showcasing a significant transformation in China's manufacturing sector [1][4]. - The Budweiser Snow Beer factory in Putian has achieved an annual production capacity of 2 million tons, with a production line capable of producing 45 cans per second, leading the industry in water consumption efficiency at 1.83 tons of water per ton of beer produced [4][5][8]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The factory employs advanced technologies such as automated production lines, intelligent inspection robots, and a comprehensive monitoring system to enhance production efficiency and ensure food safety [5][7]. - Budweiser Snow Beer has invested 708 million yuan in digital transformation, positioning itself as a benchmark enterprise in industrial internet within Fujian province [5][9]. Group 3: Environmental Sustainability - The factory's solar power system generates 17 million kilowatt-hours annually, and its water recycling initiatives have led to a water reuse rate of 94.03%, significantly reducing water waste [8][9]. - The introduction of a steam condensate recovery system allows the factory to recycle 170,000 tons of condensate water each year, minimizing the need for fresh water [8][9]. Group 4: Economic Impact - Budweiser Snow Beer has become a core enterprise in Putian, contributing significantly to the local economy and serving as a model for successful government-business collaboration and urban integration [4][11]. - The beer industry cluster in Putian has surpassed 25 billion yuan in scale, fostering job creation and tax revenue growth, while the region aims to develop a food processing industry park with an annual output value exceeding 30 billion yuan [14][15]. Group 5: Cultural Integration - The establishment of the "059 Coastline Craft Beer Community" and the Budweiser China Beer Museum reflects the integration of industrial production with cultural tourism, enhancing the region's social influence [15][16]. - The craft beer community produces local specialty beers using regional ingredients, promoting a unique cultural identity while driving consumer engagement [15][17].