Core Viewpoint - The prices of premium liquors, particularly Wuliangye, have significantly dropped following a price decline in Feitian Moutai, indicating a potential shift in the high-end liquor market dynamics [1][4][5]. Price Trends - Wuliangye's price on e-commerce platforms has fallen below 750 yuan, with specific listings showing prices as low as 748 yuan for the 52-degree 500ml bottle [1]. - The wholesale reference price for Wuliangye's eighth generation has decreased by 5.26% from the beginning of the year, dropping from 950 yuan to 900 yuan per bottle [5]. - Feitian Moutai has seen price declines exceeding 10%, with the 25-year-old bottle now priced at 1870 yuan, down from 2200 yuan, marking a 15% drop [5]. Market Dynamics - The decline in Moutai prices is expected to exert pressure on other high-end liquor brands, particularly Wuliangye, leading to potential price compression and demand diversion [5]. - There are concerns that the price drop of Moutai may trigger panic selling in distribution channels, further deteriorating the sales expectations for Wuliangye and other premium liquors [5]. - Wuliangye's official communication has warned consumers about counterfeit products being sold under the guise of discounts and promotions on various platforms, emphasizing the importance of purchasing from authorized sellers [4].

Group 1 - The demand for high-end liquor, particularly premium baijiu brands like Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, has been declining due to market saturation and changing consumer preferences [1][3][6] - The real estate sector's struggles and the implementation of nationwide alcohol bans have further exacerbated the challenges faced by the high-end liquor market, particularly affecting the consumption capacity of institutional buyers [3][6] - Prices for premium baijiu have significantly decreased, with Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye seeing price drops to around 1,499 yuan and 800 yuan per bottle respectively, indicating a shift towards more rational pricing [3][6] Group 2 - The traditional speculative model of hoarding and reselling high-end liquor is no longer sustainable, leading to an oversupply situation similar to that of the tea market [1][6] - The demographic shift in consumer preferences, with younger generations favoring wine and beer over baijiu, suggests a shrinking consumer base for high-end liquor [6] - Many distributors of high-end baijiu are struggling financially, as increased inventory levels lead to greater losses, indicating a potential crisis in the distribution network [6]