Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector in A-shares has underperformed compared to major indices, with a decline of 0.27% over the past two weeks, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.62 percentage points [2][13] - The approval of D-Tagatose by the National Health Commission presents a new opportunity in the sugar substitute market, as it is a natural sweetener with lower calories compared to sucrose [4][62] - The dairy industry is showing signs of stabilization, with efforts to alleviate challenges and improve quality [4][62] Summary by Sections Market Review - The A-share food and beverage industry fell by 0.27% from June 23 to July 4, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.62 percentage points and the Shenzhen Component Index by 5.30 percentage points [2][13] - Within the sector, baking products (+3.67%), health products (+3.50%), and meat products (+1.54%) saw the highest gains, while soft drinks (-2.21%), beer (-2.10%), and snacks (-1.84%) experienced the largest declines [2][13] Key Data Tracking - As of July 4, the price of Feitian Moutai was 1,955 RMB for original boxes and 1,865 RMB for bulk, showing a decrease of 35 RMB and 65 RMB respectively from two weeks prior [3][29] - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas was 3.04 RMB/kg, down 7.0% year-on-year [40][43] Key Events Tracking - The approval of D-Tagatose as a new food ingredient opens up opportunities in the sugar substitute market, with its sweetness being about 70% that of sucrose but with only 10% of the calories [4][62] - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasized the need to support the dairy industry, indicating a positive trend towards recovery [4][62] Investment Recommendations - In the white liquor segment, it is advised to focus on high-end brands with strong market positions such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as regional leaders with favorable competitive dynamics [9][64] - For consumer goods, there is a growing interest in yellow wine, and beer consumption is entering its peak season, with high demand in snack foods and energy drinks [9][64]

Core Insights - The 618 shopping festival has concluded, leading to varied price movements in the white liquor market, with some products experiencing price increases while others continue to decline [1][2][3] Price Trends in Major Cities - In Guangzhou, among 21 sampled white liquor products, 9 saw a decrease in average retail price, while 8 experienced an increase, and 4 remained unchanged [2] - Notably, high-end products like Moutai and Guojiao 1573 have seen price drops, with Moutai's average retail price falling to approximately 2304 RMB, a decrease of about 100 RMB from the previous period [2][3] - In Shenzhen, Moutai's average retail price is reported at 2298.5 RMB, with a notable decline in several high-end products due to ongoing market pressures [7][10] - East Dongguan's market shows a mixed trend, with 9 products increasing in price and 5 decreasing, highlighting the volatility in high-end liquor pricing [12][13] Online vs. Offline Pricing - Online platforms, particularly instant retail channels, are showing lower prices compared to offline supermarkets, with Moutai priced at 2229 RMB online, which is about 75 RMB lower than the overall average [3][8] - The price discrepancies between online and offline channels are significant, with products like Junpin Xijiu and Qinghua Lang being sold for much lower prices online compared to their offline counterparts [3][8] Impact of Regulatory Changes - The ongoing "ban on alcohol" has significantly impacted sales, particularly in high-end segments, leading to price reductions as businesses attempt to stimulate demand [9][10] - The combination of the 618 festival and regulatory changes has created a challenging environment for liquor companies, as they navigate maintaining sales volume and pricing stability [1][17] Summary of Average Prices - The average prices for key products as of July 4th are as follows: - Moutai: 2367.62 RMB [19] - Wuliangye: 1010.27 RMB [19] - Junpin Xijiu: 833.17 RMB [20] - Qinghua Lang: 943.11 RMB [20] - Guojiao 1573: 993.42 RMB [20]

将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 "高端酒卖不动了，普通酒也不那么吃香。" 以下文章来源于快刀财经 ，作者快刀财经编辑部 快刀财经 . 欢迎关注这个洞察商业真相的公号。快刀财经，商业快媒体、思维孵化器、价值试验场和洗欲中心。 喝不喝白酒没关系！但白酒行业确实日子不那么好过。 先看今年618，白酒的价格那叫一个"跌跌不休"。在各大电商平台的补贴"大招"下，茅台、五粮液 等头部产品的"百亿补贴"价，直接击穿了批发价。就拿53度飞天茅台来说，限时补贴后，到手价最 低能到1840元/瓶，跟去年同期比，那可跌了不少。 往远处一点的2025年端午节，济南某经销商望着店内琳琅满目的白酒货架，却丝毫感受不到节日带 来的喜悦，尽管白酒销量勉强与去年持平，客单价却暴跌近60%，且往年备受追捧的头部酒被冷 落，300-600元的产品却成了消费者首选。 作者丨 唐纳德 来源丨 快刀财经 "高端酒卖不动了，普通酒也不那么吃香"，这是一些经销商老板最典型的感叹。 往深处讲，现象背后，透露出的是中国白酒产业的集体阵痛，作为资本市场和食品消费领域的一块核 心资产，白酒尤其是高端白酒一度被赋予消费和收藏属性。 然而，近年来白酒行业 ...

快刀财经 . 欢迎关注这个洞察商业真相的公号。快刀财经，商业快媒体、思维孵化器、价值试验场和洗欲中心。 作者： 唐纳德 来源：快刀财经（ID：kuaidaocaijing） 喝不喝白酒没关系！但白酒行业确实日子不那么好过。 先看今年618， 白酒的价格那叫一个"跌跌不休" 。在各大电商平台的补贴"大招"下，茅台、五 粮液等头部产品的"百亿补贴"价，直接击穿了批发价。就拿53度飞天茅台来说，限时补贴后，到 手价最低能到1840元/瓶，跟去年同期比，那可跌了不少。 往远处一点的2025年端午节，济南某经销商望着店内琳琅满目的白酒货架，却丝毫感受不到节日 带来的喜悦，尽管白酒销量勉强与去年持平，客单价却暴跌近60%，且往年备受追捧的头部酒被 冷落，300-600元的产品却成了消费者首选。 "高端酒卖不动了，普通酒也不那么吃香"，这是一些经销商老板最典型的感叹。 往深处讲， 现象背后，透露出的是中国白酒产业的集体阵痛 ，作为资本市场和食品消费领域的 一块核心资产，白酒尤其是高端白酒一度被赋予消费和收藏属性。 以下文章来源于快刀财经 ，作者快刀财经编辑部 然而，近年来白酒行业在宏观经济放缓和产业周期调整的双重背景下，迎 ...

[Table_Main] 行业研究|日常消费|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 食品、饮料与烟草行业 周报、月报 [Table_Title] 5 月社零亮眼，关注软饮及低度酒 ——食品饮料行业双周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 行情回顾 1）近 2 周（6.9-6.20），A 股食品饮料行业（SW）下跌 4.49%，跑输 上证指数 3.73pct，跑输深证成指 2.73pct，跑输沪深 300 指数 3.78pct。 2）细分行业方面，近 2 周 A 股食品饮料各细分行业（SW）均下跌， 保健品（-2.15%）、肉制品（-2.99%）、乳品（-3.48%）跌幅较小，零 食（-7.95%）、调味发酵品（-7.37%）、预加工食品（-6.01%）跌幅居 前。 3）个股方面，在 A 股食品饮料行业（SW）所有个股中，近 2 周，交 大昂立（+17.96%）、金种子酒（+8.37%）、惠发食品（+7.84%）涨幅 居前，均瑶健康（-26.51%）、康比特（-16.81%）、海南椰岛（-15.77%） 跌幅居前。 食饮行业重点数据跟踪 1）白酒：根据同花顺 Ifind 数据，6 月 20 日飞天茅台原箱/ ...

电商平台618年中大促激战正酣，在带动白酒消费市场持续升温的同时也引发白酒价格的一番波动。 近日，南都湾财社发布了第四十七期《湾区酒价》。据统计，本周广州、深圳、东莞三地白酒产品价格 波动较大，部分高端白酒降价幅度明显。但作为行业龙头的贵州茅台终端价格仍保持在2400元以上，部 分地区涨至2800元，显示其深厚的消费基础，以及市场对其产品及品牌价值的高度认同。 广州：飞天茅台市场零售价稳在2400元以上 东莞：名酒价格有变动，飞天茅台涨幅最高 据本期《湾区酒价》，东莞市场的各类名酒价格也有变动。在统计的21款白酒产品中，有5款名酒均价 上涨，其中涨幅最高的是飞天茅台。 统计数据显示，东莞市场的飞天茅台均价从上期的2299元涨至本期的2800元，上涨501元。据了解，"飞 天茅台"在东莞市场中的货源较为不稳定，渠道货源的变动是导致价格上涨的重要原因。 | 品种 | 东莞市场均价(6月13日) | | --- | --- | | 贵州茅台:2024/25 飞 | 2800元 | | 天茅台 -- 散飞53度 | | | 五粮液:第八代普五 52度 | 1028.17元 | | 国台:国台国标 53度 | 316元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the high-end segment represented by Moutai, is experiencing significant price declines and market challenges, raising concerns about its future viability and potential investment opportunities [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Moutai's stock price has dropped from 1645 yuan on May 14 to 1427 yuan, a decline of 13% in one month, reflecting broader struggles within the liquor sector [1]. - Moutai's price has decreased by 45% from its peak of 2608 yuan in 2021, indicating a more severe downturn compared to the 2008 financial crisis [3]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The recent alcohol ban implemented on May 18 has negatively affected the liquor industry, particularly high-end brands, as it restricts business consumption, which previously relied on premium products like Moutai [3]. - The ban's impact has led to a broader decline in the market, with secondary brands like Shanxi Fenjiu and Gujing Gongjiu experiencing a 14% drop in the last 20 days, even more than Moutai [3]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - There is a noticeable divergence within the industry; while high-end brands struggle, some mass-market products are seeing increased sales, indicating a shift from luxury consumption to essential needs [3][4]. - Liquor companies are proactively managing supply to maintain prices, with notable actions such as Wuliangye halting the supply of its eighth-generation product and Yanghe implementing quotas [4]. Group 4: Capital Movements - Despite the stock price decline, Moutai's financing balance has increased by 2 billion yuan, suggesting that some investors are taking advantage of lower prices to buy in [4]. - Major brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao are using bank loans to repurchase their own shares, signaling confidence in the long-term value of the industry [4]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - The liquor sector's current price-to-earnings ratio of 25 is lower than 80% of the time over the past decade, indicating potential undervaluation [4]. - Key indicators for potential recovery include Moutai's price stabilizing above 2200 yuan, improved sales data during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, and signs of policy-driven consumer stimulus [4]. Group 6: Industry Evolution - The liquor industry is undergoing a generational shift, with younger consumers showing less interest in high-alcohol products, prompting brands to innovate with lower-alcohol options and cocktails [4].

作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 最近，贵州茅台股价持续下跌引发了热点关注。 在 5 月 14 日，茅台的股价还触及 1645 元 / 股的高位，然而 1 个月后的今天，其股价已经持续震荡阴跌至 1427 元 / 股， 期间跌幅近 13% ，对比期间微跌 0.8% 沪指，显著跑输。 贵州 茅台上市以来， 并 不是没有向下调整过， 20 08 年、 20 12 年、 20 18 年，调整至多也 一两 年就 重新 上攻了。 但这一次， 茅台自从 2021 年初股价突破至 2400 元历史高位之后，不知不觉中已经弱势震荡了 4 年多，期间股价跌去超千元，自高位跌幅 超过 40% 。 尽管有人认为，与十多年前的禁酒令相比，现在头部白酒公司在公务消费占比上已经降低至不足 5% 的水平，但实际上，如果失去了这一部分 占比的消费，必然会连带影响更多隐含和潜在的商务及普通宴请消费场景需求。 在当前白酒存量消费场景持续收缩、动销形势本就不容乐观的背景下，新的禁令带来的边际冲击影响变得更大。 所以也就是这一天起，国内的一众白酒股纷纷从跟随大市震荡上涨转为背离市场进入持续单边下跌行情 ...

在 5 月 14 日，茅台的股价还触及 1645 元 / 股的高位，然而 1 个月后的今天，其股价已经持续震荡阴跌至 1427 元 / 股， 期间跌幅近 13% ，对比期间微跌 0.8% 沪指，显著跑输。 贵州 茅台上市以来， 并 不是没有向下调整过， 20 08 年、 20 12 年、 20 18 年，调整至多也 一两 年就 重新 上攻了。 作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 最近，贵州茅台股价持续下跌引发了热点关注。 但这一次， 茅台自从 2021 年初股价突破至 2400 元历史高位之后，不知不觉中已经弱势震荡了 4 年多，期间股价跌去超千元，自高位跌幅 超过 40% 。 在最近，中国大量头部企业估值纷纷上涨的大背景下，作为无数股民心中信仰的茅台却反而录得如此表现，难免让人感到哑然和失望。 01 最近白酒股的持续下跌，主要是面临了多方面的压力。 首先是来自政策面的影响。 2025 年 5 月 18 日， 中央 修订发布相关规定，明确涉及公务员工作餐不得上白酒等酒类饮品。修订的《党政机关厉行节约反对浪费条例》 规定， 公务接待工作餐不得提供香烟，不得上任何酒类 ...

食品饮料行业 超配 （维持） 结构分化，聚焦景气 食品饮料行业 2025 年中期投资策略 2025 年 6 月 13 日 分析师：黄冬祎 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 资料来源：同花顺，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 投 资 策 略 行 业 研 究 推荐 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 食品饮料行业今年1-5月跑赢沪深300指数。2025年1-5月份（截至 2025年5月31日），SW食品饮料行业指数整体下跌1.52%，涨幅在所有 申万一级行业指数中居第二十一位，跑赢同期沪深300指数约0.89个 百分点。细分板块中，多数细分板块跑赢同期沪深300指数。 ◼ 维持对行业的超配评级。白酒板块：近期，受外部市场环境、需求弱 复苏、政策强化等因素影响，板块波动较大。从白酒企业公布的业绩 来看，板块内部呈现分化。政策面来看，5月1 ...