与资金抄底科技股，以及黄金急跌后反弹相比，比特币是周五市场的一个明显例外：逆势下跌5%，创6个月新低，且已连续三周下跌。这一反差揭示了 比特币市场的异常处境：在与纳斯达克100指数保持0.8高度相关性的同时，比特币却呈现出"跟跌更大，跟涨更弱"的不对称特征。与此同时，巨鲸抛售 加剧，长期持有者集中出货等多重因素正在共同压制比特币。 科技股迎来抄底资金，黄金也在急跌后反弹，比特币却独自沉沦，"一蹶不振"。这背后到底发生了什么？此前风光无限的加密货币市场为何"惨不忍 睹"？ 周五（11月14日），美股市场出现戏剧性反转，在经历了开盘初期的恐慌性抛售后，资金抄底科技股，纳斯达克和标普500指数在触及关键技术支撑位 后强势反弹。而黄金在盘中最多狂泄超150美元之后，也反弹至4080美元附近，但比特币却成为明显的例外： 当日下跌5%，跌破94000美元关口，创 下6个月新低。 这是比特币连续第三周下跌，也是过去六周中的第五次下跌。更令人震惊的是， 自10月10日的闪崩以来，加密货币市场的冲击波至今未见减弱迹象 ——所有加密货币的总市值损失已超过1万亿美元。 周五市场走势堪称"冰火两重天"。 纳斯达克100指数和标普50 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the brokerage industry has significantly improved in the first half of 2025, driven by increased investor confidence and market activity, with all 29 listed brokerages reporting profit growth [1][2]. Group 1: Brokerage Performance - As of July 15, 2025, the median net profit growth for the 29 listed brokerages is approximately 100%, with an average growth rate of 203%, and the smallest growth reported is 55% [2][3]. - Notably, Huaxi Securities and Guolian Minsheng are expected to see net profit growth exceeding 1000% [2]. - The brokerage sector has experienced a maximum index increase of 22% from April 7 to July 15, with 28 stocks rising over 20% and some exceeding 55% [1][2]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The growth in brokerage profits is attributed to active capital markets and favorable policies, particularly in self-operated and brokerage businesses [2][3]. - A-shares' average daily trading volume reached 1.6 trillion yuan, a 66% year-on-year increase, while Hong Kong's market saw a 118% increase in daily trading volume [3][4]. - The IPO financing scale in the A-share market for the first half of 2025 was 37.4 billion yuan, a 15% increase year-on-year, with the second quarter seeing a 27% quarter-on-quarter growth [3][4]. Group 3: Mergers and Acquisitions - Active mergers and acquisitions have contributed to the earnings elasticity of brokerages, with Guotai Junan expected to report a net profit of 15.283 to 15.957 billion yuan, a 205% to 218% increase year-on-year [4][5]. - Guolian Minsheng anticipates a net profit of approximately 1.129 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of around 1183% [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Differentiation - The brokerage sector is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by high market activity and low valuations, with a potential for valuation recovery [6][7]. - There is a notable differentiation within the brokerage sector, influenced by factors such as company size, business structure, and involvement in mergers and acquisitions [7]. - The average net profit for the 29 brokerages is around 2.1 billion yuan, but the median is only about 700 million yuan, indicating significant performance disparities [7].