钢材】单边观望。盘面套利重点观察01合约卷螺差是否给到150以下布局做多的机会。期现反套滚动 (焦煤焦炭】单边暂时观望 【焦煤焦炭】贸易纠纷再起,风险资产集体下挫 现货端,节假期间焦炭首轮提涨落地,市场传闻第二轮提涨原先计划10日提出,但最终推迟,港口贸易报价提前下跌,产 地练焦煤竞拍涨跌互现,港口贸易准一集炭排价1430(-10),炼焦煤价格指数1251.1(-0.5);蒙煤方面,节日期间由 于通关暂停,甘其毛都口岸库存下降明显,节后通关恢复至高位,市场成交氛围冷清,市场多保持观望,现甘其毛都口岸, 蒙5原煤1028(+16),蒙5精煤1285(-),河北唐山:蒙5精煤1422(-)。期货端,节后第一周仅两个交易日,商品市场 2 大起大落,节日期间表现强势的资产在节后首个交易日大幅上涨后,第二个交易日迎来了回调,至周五夜盘受中美贸易摩擦 升级影响,市场集体risk-off,权益、工业金属和能源急跌。基本面来看,节日期间钢材累库较多,终端需求表现依然较 弱,不过随着假期结束,需求也会快速恢复,具体情况还有待后续验证,炉料数据则表现较好,煤矿节日期间多有减产, 游库存消耗较快,碳元素总库存去化,表明供需依然偏紧 ...

Report Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot Roll: ★★☆, suggesting a clear long trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★, representing a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ★★☆, indicating a clear long trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Coking Coal: ★★★, representing a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silicon Iron: ★★★, representing a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Views - The steel market is in a state of repeated tug - of - war between weak demand and anti - involution, with the short - term operation rhythm of the futures price switching quickly and mainly oscillating within a range. The overall wind direction change of the commodity market should be noted [2] - The iron ore futures price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with limited fundamental contradictions currently [3] - The coke futures price has a high short - term volatility, with the price being greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations [4] - The coking coal futures price has a large short - term volatility, and the price is greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations [6] - The silicon manganese price bottom is gradually rising, and the price is greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, mainly following the coking coal trend [7] - The silicon iron price is mainly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations and follows the silicon manganese trend [8] Summary by Industry Steel - This week, the apparent demand for thread decreased significantly, production declined slightly, and inventory accumulation accelerated. The apparent demand for hot roll improved, production increased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rhythm slowed down [2] - The molten iron production declined moderately but remained at a high level. With low inventory, the market negative feedback pressure is not large. As the parade approaches, attention should be paid to the production restriction intensity in Tangshan and other places [2] - From the downstream industries, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, infrastructure growth slowed down, the manufacturing prosperity degree slowed down, and the overall domestic demand was still weak, while steel exports remained at a relatively high level [2] Iron Ore - On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment is stronger year - on - year, and there is an expectation of seasonal recovery in the future. The domestic port inventory has stabilized and rebounded, and there is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure even under high port clearance [3] - On the demand side, this week's steel apparent demand declined, but the proportion of profitable steel mills is at a high level, and currently there is insufficient motivation for active production reduction. Iron ore demand is still supported by high molten iron. Future attention should be paid to the progress of policy - based production restrictions [3] - At the macro level, the Sino - US tariff extension, domestic demand still needs policy support, and the market sentiment has cooled down due to the coking coal position limit [3] Coke - The coking plants in East China have expectations of production restrictions again as a major event approaches. The sixth round of coke price cuts has been implemented, profits have improved, and daily coke production has increased slightly [4] - The overall coke inventory is in a downward trend, and the purchasing willingness of traders is good. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron remains at a high level in the off - season. The market sentiment has been boosted by coal over - production inspection [4] Coking Coal - The new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" mainly pushes up the cost per ton of coal. The production of coking coal mines has decreased, the spot auction market has improved, the transaction price has mainly increased, and the terminal inventory has remained flat [6] - The total coking coal inventory has decreased month - on - month, and the production - end inventory has continued to decline significantly. It is likely to continue de - stocking in the short term. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron remains at a high level in the off - season. The market sentiment has been boosted by coal over - production inspection [6] Silicon Manganese - The demand side has a molten iron production of over 240, still maintaining a high level. The weekly silicon manganese production has continued to increase, but the production increase rate is lower than expected, providing some support for the price [7] - The manganese ore price has increased slightly this week. It is judged that the manganese ore will mainly accumulate inventory in the second half of the year. In July, supply exceeded demand, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continued to be depleted. Attention should be paid to when the on - balance - sheet silicon manganese inventory starts to increase [7] Silicon Iron - The molten iron production has decreased slightly but remained above 240. A large northern steel mill's tender price increased by 430 compared with the previous round, with a tender price of 6030 yuan/ton and an inquiry price of 5700 yuan/ton [8] - The export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact being small. The metal magnesium production has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand has declined marginally. The overall demand is acceptable [8] - The silicon iron supply has increased significantly, the market transaction level is average, and the on - balance - sheet inventory has increased slightly [8]