Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the complex and tense relationship between China and the United States, characterized by both cooperation and underlying conflicts [1][3][5] - China has agreed to purchase 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans, with four shipments already ordered, which is seen as a positive development for U.S. farmers [1][3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent's statements reflect a dual approach, expressing optimism about China while simultaneously warning against inconsistencies in trade agreements [3][5] Group 2 - The political context in the U.S. is crucial, with the upcoming 2026 midterm elections influencing the administration's stance on trade with China, particularly concerning agricultural states [3][5] - The historical pattern of U.S. commitments being reversed has led to a significant erosion of trust between the two nations, complicating future negotiations [3][5][7] - The current global economic environment, marked by recession risks, makes further tariffs on China counterproductive, suggesting that cooperation may be a more viable path for economic benefit [5][7] Group 3 - China's supply chain diversification and technological advancements reduce its dependency on U.S. supply chains, potentially undermining U.S. leverage in trade negotiations [5][7] - The articles emphasize that achieving lasting peace and cooperation requires building trust and mutual respect beyond mere transactional improvements [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel**: The valuation is neutral, and short - term risk appetite may be affected. With the resurgence of Sino - US tariff disputes, the black sector may be affected by market risk appetite. In the short term, attention should be paid to APEC, trade negotiations, the Fourth Plenary Session, and the 15th Five - Year Plan. In the industry, it is expected that steel will return to de - stocking next week, and the demand intensity in the "Silver October" needs to be observed. Otherwise, there may be concerns about negative feedback in the off - season [2]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Silicon**: With recent macro - level negative news, the market sentiment is not optimistic, and the prices of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon are likely to decline. The supply of silicon ferroalloy is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is neutral. The supply of manganese silicon is high, demand is average, and inventory is at a high level. Although short - term alloy plant profits are near the break - even point, there are still medium - term concerns [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the Sino - US trade friction escalated, the market risk appetite weakened. Although the spot of coking coal and coke is strong, the expectation has turned weak. The market is cautious about terminal demand after the festival. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are still tight with some support below, but the impact of steel de - stocking on them needs to be observed [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term supply data has not been significantly affected. The recent intensification of trade conflicts has hit risk assets, but the impact is less than in April. If there is no production reduction, high - level hot metal in the second half of the year may lead to an oversupply of iron ore in the fourth quarter. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Category Price and Spread Information - **Futures Closing Prices**: On October 10, for far - month contracts, HC2605 was 12605 yuan/ton, JM2605 was 1819 yuan/ton, RB2605 was 3159 yuan/ton, and J2605 was 3292 yuan/ton. For near - month contracts, HC2601 was 1666.5 yuan/ton, RB2601 was 3103 yuan/ton, etc. There were also corresponding changes in prices and spreads such as cross - month spreads, disk profits, and basis [1]. - **Spot Prices**: On October 10, the price of Tangshan billet was 2950 yuan/ton, Shanghai threaded steel was 3260 yuan/ton, etc., and there were corresponding price changes [1]. Market Outlook and Strategies - **Steel**: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines. For arbitrage, focus on whether the spread between hot - rolled coils and threaded steel in the 01 contract is below 150 for long - position opportunities. Conduct rolling reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines for now [6]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Silicon**: Short - position allocation on rallies is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: It is advisable to wait and see mainly [6].

Market Overview - US stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones increasing by 16.04 points (0.04%) to 44938.31, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.67% to 21172.86, marking a two-week low [1] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.24% to 6395.78, experiencing a four-day losing streak [1] Technology Sector - Technology stocks faced selling pressure, leading to a decline in major tech companies: Nvidia down 0.1%, AMD down 0.8%, Intel down 7%, and Micron down 4% [1][2] - Notable tech giants also saw declines: Meta down 0.5%, Microsoft down 0.8%, Google down 1.1%, Amazon down 1.8%, and Apple down 2.0% [1] Corporate News - Retail giant Target's stock dropped by 6.3% following the appointment of a new CEO and the retention of its annual forecast cut made in May [1] - Estee Lauder, a cosmetics giant, fell by 3.7% due to adverse factors related to tariffs impacting its annual profit forecast [1] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes revealed a divide among policymakers, with most members believing inflationary pressures outweigh labor market risks [2][6] - The Fed decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% amid economic uncertainty [6] Oil and Commodity Prices - International oil prices rebounded significantly, with WTI crude oil rising by 1.38% to $63.21 per barrel and Brent crude increasing by 1.60% to $66.84 per barrel [2] Agricultural Sector - The president of the American Soybean Association expressed significant financial pressure on US soybean farmers due to ongoing trade disputes with China, urging prioritization of soybean issues in negotiations [5] International Trade - Germany's trade surplus with the US decreased by 12.8% in the first half of the year, attributed to US tariffs impacting the competitiveness of German products [20]

Group 1 - The American Soybean Association is urging the U.S. government to reach an agreement with China to alleviate financial pressure on soybean farmers, as prices continue to decline while production costs rise significantly [2] - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, citing economic uncertainty and a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year [3] - The People's Bank of China announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for three consecutive months, with the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5% [4] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance in China has instructed local governments to prioritize projects with certain returns based on economic and financial conditions [5] - The Chinese government has announced that childcare subsidies will be exempt from personal income tax starting January 1, 2025 [6] - The State Administration for Market Regulation is seeking public opinion on new antitrust guidelines for the public utility sector [7] Group 3 - The Ministry of Transport stated that rural road development in China has entered a new phase, focusing on both new construction and the improvement of existing roads [8] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission reported that there are currently 131 listed commodity futures and options in China, covering a wide range of economic sectors [10] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration is seeking opinions on a draft management method for commercial bank merger loans [11] Group 4 - Several small and medium-sized banks in China have announced reductions in deposit rates by 10 to 20 basis points to manage net interest margin pressures [12] - The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology reported that smartphone shipments in June 2025 reached 22.598 million units, a year-on-year decline of 9.3% [13] - Guangzhou has issued implementation measures for converting commercial housing loans to public housing fund loans [14] Group 5 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is considering a 24-hour trading mechanism, following the example of Nasdaq [18] - The U.S. President has called for the resignation of a Federal Reserve governor amid ongoing scrutiny of her financial dealings [19] - The U.K. inflation rate rose to 3.8% in July, the highest level in 19 months, exceeding the Bank of England's target [22] Group 6 - Germany's trade surplus with the U.S. decreased by 12.8% in the first half of the year due to U.S. tariff policies [23] - The European Central Bank's President indicated that U.S. tariff policies are expected to slow economic growth in the Eurozone [25] - India has temporarily suspended an 11% import duty on cotton, benefiting U.S. cotton farmers and the Indian textile industry [29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that investor sentiment towards A-shares has improved since July 2024, while expectations for the real estate sector have also shown signs of recovery since September 2023, although overall sentiment remains relatively negative [1] - The report highlights that investor sentiment towards A-shares reached its lowest point since 2018 in July 2024, but a series of unexpected financial policies introduced in September 2023 triggered a rally, leading to a significant increase in positive sentiment by November 2024 [1] - The latest survey indicates a slight decline in positive sentiment, with approximately 61.5% of respondents believing A-shares will rise, down 6.7 percentage points from November 2024, although the net increase in those willing to invest in stocks rose by 1.4 percentage points [1] Group 2 - The survey coincided with an increase in trade tensions between the US and China, with investors perceiving short-term pressures but maintaining a positive long-term outlook [2] - Approximately 54.4% of respondents believe China is a world leader in artificial intelligence, an increase of 14.7 percentage points since November 2024, while around 55% believe China leads in the new energy sector, up 19.2 percentage points since April 2021 [2]