【消息面汇总】 中泰期货：养殖端持续亏损下，情绪转向悲观，淘鸡积极性较高，淘鸡持续偏快，叠加新鸡开产水平环 比下降，而养殖端补栏持续低迷，蛋鸡在产存栏水平触顶下滑，市场对远期预期向好。不过当前在产存 栏基数较大，下滑速度缓慢，叠加冷库蛋压力，预计春节前鸡蛋供应压力仍或偏高，鸡蛋短期反转概率 不高。对于后市，去产能进程快慢与现货强弱匹配度或成为主要矛盾，目前远期合约升水现货，关注现 货表现强弱对期货预期的证伪或证实。 10月全国在产蛋鸡存栏量13.59亿羽，环比下降0.66%，同比实现增长5.5%。存栏量处于近9年最高水 平，供应快速恢复兑现。按补苗趋势看，11月蛋鸡存栏量或有小幅回落，同比或仍处近10年最高水平。 11月27日，鸡蛋期货呈现震荡上行走势，截至发稿主力合约大幅上涨2.12%，报3283.00元/500千克。 机构观点 截至2025年11月20日，淘鸡日龄平均492天，环比上周提前1天，较上月提前7天，表明淘汰速度有所加 速。 现货方面，今日主产区山东鸡蛋均价6.09元/公斤，较昨日价格上涨0.14；河北鸡蛋均价5.63元/公斤，较 昨日价格上涨0.02；广东鸡蛋均价6.73元/公斤，与昨日价格持 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since mid-August, although spot prices have stabilized and rebounded, the market remains pessimistic about the peak season spot prices, leading to a significant decline in the 2509 contract due to the timing of egg deliveries post National Day [5][6]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The price gap between large and small eggs has reached a historical high, indicating that new production capacity exceeds the number of old hens being culled [5][6]. - The average price of eggs in major production areas is currently 3.2 yuan/kg, significantly lower than the same period last year [6][7]. - As of August 19, the inventory in the production link was 0.74 days, while the circulation inventory was 1.1 days, reflecting a rebound in inventory levels despite a decrease in supply [6]. Group 2: Production and Supply Dynamics - The number of laying hens increased by 2% month-on-month to approximately 1.292 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 7% [15]. - The sales of chick orders have decreased, indicating a decline in replenishment sentiment, with chick prices dropping to 3.15 yuan each as of August 20 [15][16]. - The high level of chick replenishment from March to May suggests that the supply of laying hens will remain high in the fourth quarter, despite a projected decline in new production capacity [16]. Group 3: Profitability and Culling Trends - As of August 6, the profit from egg production was -7 yuan per hen, indicating a slight loss, with feed prices remaining stable [24]. - The number of culled hens increased by 5.2% week-on-week, with an average culling age of 502 days, reflecting a slight easing of reluctance to cull due to lower-than-expected spot prices [24][30]. - The current culling pace may not sufficiently alleviate the oversupply pressure expected in the fourth quarter, unless there is an unexpected increase in culling post-Mid-Autumn Festival [30]. Group 4: Futures Market Outlook - The 2509 contract is expected to have limited upside as it approaches the delivery month, with market sentiment remaining pessimistic about peak season demand [30]. - The market is showing a near-weak and far-strong pattern, with expectations of a rebound in the far months, but current supply-demand factors do not support a significant market turnaround [30].