1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report maintains the idea of short - selling on rallies in the near - term for egg futures. Although the egg production capacity shows a downward trend, the absolute supply level remains high, and the pace of supply reduction slows down due to market expectations. The spot price is affected by pulsed demand, with a relatively strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable, leading to an over - valued near - month futures contract. Attention should be paid to the support brought by rising costs in the long - term [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, domestic egg prices rose in a volatile manner. At the beginning of the week, prices dropped to a low level, leading to increased replenishment by traders and downstream purchases. Cost increases boosted market confidence, but sufficient supply and slower post - price - increase sales limited the price increase. The number of culled chickens remained low, and the chicken age increased. The cost increase led to more severe losses in egg farming. The prices of large - sized eggs in major production areas and sales areas all increased. With the approaching of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, demand may improve slightly, and egg prices are expected to rise slightly next week [11]. - **Chick Rearing and Culling**: In February, the number of chicks reared was 86.6 million, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% and a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The chick price increase also indicates an improvement in sentiment. Due to young chicken age and positive expectations for future egg prices, the number of culled chickens after the Spring Festival was low, the price of culled chickens was high, and the chicken age rose to 505 days [11]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of February, the inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The inventory level was relatively high. It is expected that the inventory will peak and decline in the future, dropping to 1.304 billion by July, a decrease of 3.4%, but the absolute supply is still high [11]. - **Demand**: Downstream demand was tepid, and traders' purchasing enthusiasm was low. As egg prices dropped to a low level, downstream replenishment may increase, and with the approaching of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the purchase volume is expected to rise [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain the idea of short - selling on rallies for the near - term. For the long - term, pay attention to the support brought by rising costs. The recommended strategy is to short - sell on rallies for contracts from May to July, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended cycle of 3 - 4 months. After the spot price realizes the expected increase, consider reverse arbitrage [11][13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: Last week, domestic egg prices rose in a volatile manner. The prices of large - sized eggs in major production areas and sales areas increased. The overall supply was sufficient, small - sized eggs were slightly in short supply, inventory was low, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. With the approaching of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, demand may improve slightly, and egg prices are expected to rise slightly next week [20]. - **Basis and Spread**: After the Chinese New Year, the spot price dropped significantly, and the basis fell to a relatively low level. The monthly spread was mainly in a short - term oscillation [23]. - **Culled Chicken Price**: Although egg farming was in a loss after the Spring Festival, egg prices were relatively stable. Farmers were confident about the future and were reluctant to sell culled chickens, leading to an increase in the price of culled chickens and the chicken age [26]. - **Chick and Pullet Price**: The chick price increased month - on - month, indicating an improvement in sentiment [33]. 3.3. Supply Side - **Egg Chicken Rearing**: In February, the number of chicks reared was 86.6 million, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% and a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The chick price increase also indicates an improvement in sentiment [33]. - **Culled Chicken Sales**: Due to young chicken age and positive expectations for future egg prices, the number of culled chickens after the Spring Festival was low, the price of culled chickens was high, and the chicken age rose to 505 days [36]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of February, the inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The inventory level was relatively high. It is expected that the inventory will peak and decline in the future, dropping to 1.304 billion by July, a decrease of 3.4%, but the absolute supply is still high [38][41]. 3.4. Demand Side Downstream demand was tepid, and traders' purchasing enthusiasm was low. As egg prices dropped to a low level, downstream replenishment may increase, and with the approaching of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the purchase volume is expected to rise [46]. 3.5. Cost and Profit The cost was lower year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The egg - farming profit was neutral, with small losses in the off - season [51]. 3.6. Inventory Side After the Spring Festival, the inventory increased significantly, but it was neutral compared to the same period seasonally [56].

Report Title - Egg Weekly Report: As Spring Festival Stockpiling Approaches, Egg Prices Rise [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The egg market has seen price increases driven by Spring Festival stockpiling demand, with improved market sentiment and increased shipments in the production areas. However, the downstream demand for chicken products remains weak, and the overall procurement enthusiasm of slaughter enterprises is limited. The egg production capacity is expected to decline in the future, and the egg price increase is mainly supported by the rise in spot prices. [5][10][18] Summary by Directory Part 1: Logic Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.2 yuan per catty, up 0.3 yuan per catty from last Friday, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.4 yuan per catty, also up 0.3 yuan per catty from last Friday. The egg market rose driven by Spring Festival stockpiling. The inventory in each link decreased significantly, and the egg price increased significantly. The downstream demand was weak, and the procurement enthusiasm of slaughter enterprises was limited. [5] 2. Supply Analysis - The national egg production area shipments increased significantly this week, mainly due to the concentrated release of pre - Spring Festival stockpiling demand and the active inventory increase in the terminal market. On January 8th, the national main production area egg - laying hen culling volume was 17.33 million, with little change from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 485 days, 1 day more than the previous week. In December, the national laying hen inventory was 1.344 billion, 80 million less than the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, lower than expected. The monthly hatching volume of egg - laying hen chicks in sample enterprises was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. [10] 3. Cost Analysis - As of January 15th, the corn price was around 2363 yuan per ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3184 yuan per ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2609 yuan per ton, equivalent to about 2.87 yuan per catty of eggs. The feed price rose slightly this week, and the cost per catty of eggs remained stable. The average weekly profit per catty of eggs was 0.13 yuan per catty, up 0.26 yuan from the previous week. On January 9th, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was - 14.14 yuan per feather, down 0.41 yuan per catty from the previous week. [13] 4. Demand Analysis - At the beginning of the week, the Spring Festival stockpiling demand was released, and the sales volume in the sales areas increased. In the middle and late weeks, the sales growth slowed down. As of January 8th, the egg sales volume in national representative sales areas was 7391 tons, a 2.6% decrease from the previous week, at a historical low. The egg production and circulation inventories decreased significantly and were at a low level. As of January 15th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.97 days, and in the circulation link was 1.05 days, both slightly decreasing. The vegetable price index and pork price slightly rebounded. [16] 5. Trading Strategies - Option: It is recommended to wait and see. For trading logic, considering the approaching Spring Festival, the spot price has risen significantly, which supports the futures market. The egg production capacity is decreasing, and it is expected to continue to decline in the future. It is recommended to build long positions in the far - month May contract on dips, and wait and see for arbitrage. [17][18] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking 1. Egg - Laying Hen Farming Situation - Not detailed in the provided content 2. Spread and Basis - Graphs show the 1 - month basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - month basis, 5 - 9 spread, 9 - month basis, and 9 - 1 spread from 2018 - 2025, but specific data analysis is not provided. [25][26][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg price is stable with a slight decline, and there is a possibility of a fall next week. The price of old hens is mainly stable with limited upward space. The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the near - month contract is expected to fluctuate within a range, while the far - month contracts of April and May can be considered for long - position building at low prices [5][17] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas this week is 2.8 yuan per catty, down 0.12 yuan from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas is 3.13 yuan per catty, down 0.08 yuan from last Friday. The price in the main producing areas first fell and then rose, stimulating bottom - fishing and replenishment demand. The "Double 12" e - commerce festival led to a slight improvement in terminal consumption, but the upward momentum of egg prices has weakened. The price of old hens is stable with a narrow increase, but the downstream demand is weak [5] 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - In the week of December 12, the national main - producing area egg - laying hen culling volume was 19.84 million, a 5% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in the week of December 12 was 486 days, 2 days less than the previous week. In November, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%, and lower than the previous expectation. The monthly egg - chick hatching volume of sample enterprises in November was 39.55 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% year - on - year decrease [10] 3.1.3 Cost Analysis - As of December 12, the corn price was around 2356 yuan per ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3108 yuan per ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2581 yuan per ton, equivalent to about 2.83 yuan per catty of eggs. The egg - laying hen breeding cost increased slightly this week. The average weekly profit per catty of eggs as of December 12 was - 0.19 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.03 yuan from the previous week. The expected profit of egg - laying hen breeding on December 12 was - 10.95 yuan per bird, a decrease of 0.67 yuan per catty from the previous week [13] 3.1.4 Demand Analysis - Affected by the "Double 12" e - commerce festival, the sales volume in the selling areas increased month - on - month. As of the week of December 5, the egg sales volume in the national representative selling areas was 7127 tons, with little change from the previous week. The production - link inventory decreased month - on - month, and the circulation - link inventory increased month - on - month. As of the week of December 12, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.01 days, an increase of 0.03 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, an increase of 0.05 days from the previous week. The vegetable price index and pork price slightly rebounded [16] 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - The trading logic is that the recent increase in culling volume has alleviated the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the short - term de - capacity speed will be relatively gentle. The near - month contract is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the far - month contracts of April and May can be considered for long - position building at low prices. For unilateral trading, the January contract is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and long - position building can be considered for far - month contracts at low prices. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [17] 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Inventory (Zhuochuang) - The data shows the in - production egg - laying hen inventory and brooding chick replenishment from 2018 to 2025 [21] 3.2.2 Culling Situation - The data shows the weekly culling volume of egg - laying hens from 2020 to 2025 [22] 3.2.3 Egg - Laying Hen Breeding Situation - It includes the culling age of culled chickens and the average price of egg - chicks in the main producing areas [26] 3.2.4 Spread and Basis - The data shows the basis of January, May, and September contracts, as well as the spreads of 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 contracts from 2018 to 2025 [29][30][33]