Core Viewpoints - The main contract for egg futures experienced a rapid decline, reaching a low of 3285.00 yuan, with a current price of 3288.00 yuan, reflecting a drop of 2.52% [1] - Institutions have differing views on the future of egg prices, with some suggesting a cautious approach to buying on dips and others indicating potential volatility in the short term [1][2] Group 1: Market Analysis - According to Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures, the egg market is expected to see a rebound in consumption as it transitions from the seasonal low to the peak season by the end of August, with current spot prices around 3.10 yuan per jin, up 0.20 yuan from the previous week [1] - Wenkang Futures notes that while egg prices are at a low point, increased demand from traders and food manufacturers may support price increases, although high inventory levels and cold storage eggs could limit the extent of price rises [2] Group 2: Trading Strategies - Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures recommends a strategy of buying September or October contracts on dips, as current prices are approaching historical lows from 2020, advising caution against speculative short selling [1] - Wenkang Futures suggests that the market may experience fluctuations in the short term due to the accumulation of expectations for a rebound in spot prices, while also indicating that the overall supply remains high, which could suppress significant price increases [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the egg industry this month is bearish [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This year, under the background of high inventory, the pace of capacity reduction is significantly insufficient, so the traditional peak consumption season for eggs may not see a strong price increase [3]. - The current high price difference between large - and small - sized eggs, along with the strong price of culled hens, indicates more new additions and fewer eliminations, which may suppress the price elasticity during the traditional consumption peak season [3]. - The acceptance of high - priced eggs in the terminal market is low, and high - temperature and high - humidity weather restricts circulation efficiency, leading to a slowdown in the movement of eggs in the production areas [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Volume Analysis - This month, the egg basis has risen significantly, and the near - month futures contracts are slightly at a discount. The spread between near - and far - term egg futures has decreased significantly and is at a medium level. From a position perspective, the institutional net position of the main egg futures contract shows a bearish and volatile state [3]. Supply Analysis - The price of culled hens from sample breeding enterprises has risen significantly this month, and the average age of culled hens has decreased. The price of chicks has continued to decline, indicating an increase in new supplies and a decrease in eliminations [3]. Demand Analysis - This month, the sales volume in the main sales areas and the shipping volume in the main production areas have increased slightly. The inventory in the circulation and production links first decreased and then increased, reaching a high level compared to the same period in history. The terminal market's acceptance of high - priced eggs is low, and the enthusiasm of traders to purchase has declined [3]. Profit Analysis - This month, the breeding profit first declined and then rose, and is currently around the break - even point. The egg - feed price ratio and its equilibrium point are also analyzed [3]. Strategy - The strategy is bearish. As the futures price has rapidly caught up with the decline, the premium on the futures has been repaired to near par. It is expected to follow the spot price later, but due to high inventory this year, the peak season may not be prosperous. Short - term trading is advised to wait and see [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent stabilization of egg futures prices is driven by expectations of increased consumption during the peak season, with prices having reached historical lows and supply pressures easing due to culling of older hens [2][3][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - Egg futures prices have shown a rebound after a significant decline in the first half of the year, with the main contract reaching a high of 3589 yuan per 500 kg before closing at 3544 yuan [2]. - The average price of eggs in major production areas like Shandong and Hebei remained stable at 5.20 yuan/kg and 4.99 yuan/kg respectively [2]. - The traditional peak consumption period for eggs is from July to September, driven by various seasonal factors including holiday preparations and school openings [3][8]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current egg supply is robust, with a high inventory level in cold storage, which is expected to support supply during the peak months of August and September [6][8]. - The number of laying hens has reached a historical high of 1.34 billion, contributing to the current supply situation [7]. - Demand for eggs has increased in the first half of the year, with sales in key consumption areas rising by 6% year-on-year, attributed to lower prices and eggs being a cost-effective protein source [6]. Group 3: Price Influences - The price of eggs is expected to rise as the peak consumption season approaches, with analysts predicting a seasonal increase in prices during July and August [8]. - Factors such as high temperatures affecting egg production rates and the culling of older hens are expected to influence supply and pricing in the near term [8]. - The futures market is currently experiencing high trading volumes, with a notable increase in positions held, indicating strong market interest [4][5].