2026.02.03 本文字数：1759，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 高雅 封图 |AI生成 长期以来，黄金与美元之间始终维持着一种稳定的反向关联。然而，当前这种传统线性关系似乎正在瓦 解，两者的波动幅度已出现失衡。 在过去一个完整的年度交易周期（260个交易日）内，金价涨幅与美元跌幅之比高达7.2倍；在半年维度 下，这一倍数更是达到了31倍。 这种显著的敏感度偏离与非线性涨幅，是否意味着锚定金价的传统建模方式已经失效？全球投资咨询公 司BCA Research反向投资策略（Counterpoint）研究服务主管乔希（Dhaval Joshi）在近期金银价格剧烈 回调前接受第一财经记者采访时表示，金银价格与美元走势之间的背离已达到极端水平，而这种极端行 情发生逆转是可以预期的。 "对比黄金和美元走势的波动幅度，美元走软时黄金往往上涨，但若仔细观察具体数据，便会发现近期 黄金的上涨幅度似乎超出了合理范围。两者并非简单的一比一对应关系。理论上，美元下跌1%时，黄 金的涨幅通常更大，这符合历史规律。然而即便如此，当前黄金的相对涨幅仍显得过于超前。而且，我 认为其他贵金属的上涨态势更是有过之而无不及。"他表 ...

Core Viewpoint - The traditional inverse relationship between gold and the US dollar is breaking down, with significant discrepancies in their price movements observed recently [3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - Over the past complete trading cycle (260 trading days), the ratio of gold price increase to dollar price decrease reached 7.2 times, and in a six-month view, this ratio escalated to 31 times [4]. - The dollar index fell from 107.96 to 97.42, a decrease of 9.76%, while gold prices surged from $2875 per ounce to $4905, an increase of over 70% during the same period [7]. - In a six-month observation, the dollar index dropped by 1.38%, but gold prices skyrocketed by 42.84%, further emphasizing the divergence [7]. Group 2: Pricing Models - The sensitivity of gold prices to the dollar index and real interest rates has significantly decreased, indicating a failure of traditional pricing models [7]. - Current pricing models are criticized for omitting key variables, particularly geopolitical risk premiums, which are essential for accurately assessing gold prices [8]. - Complex non-linear models may capture the growth of these premiums but fail to quantify the extent of gold price overvaluation or predict future price directions [8]. Group 3: Market Predictions - Major banks have raised their gold price forecasts, with Société Générale and Deutsche Bank predicting prices could reach $6000 per ounce this year, while Morgan Stanley anticipates a rise to $5700 [9]. - UBS highlights gold's strong performance as a hedge and diversification tool, suggesting that ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties will support gold's attractiveness [9]. - Citibank warns that while geopolitical and economic risks currently support gold investments, about half of these risks may dissipate later in the year [10].