智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，中国调整黄金增值税抵扣政策，目的是集中监管投资产品需求， 流动性降低可能促使部分需求转向黄金ETF。至于首饰消费领域，该行认为不论是透过直营或加盟渠 道，新增的7%税项将会转嫁予消费者。 该行指，老铺黄金(06181)及周大福(01929)的短期需求或面临压力，但长期而言两者有望进一步整合市 场。假设增值税退税率由13%减至6%，估算老铺黄金的毛利率将面临3至4个百分点的压力，不过公司 上月底已加价约两成多，或可抵消部分影响;而周大福日前已将计重黄金产品价格上调5%，将毛利率压 力转嫁予消费者。 该行认为，提高增值税将对近期黄金产品需求构成压力，并减少投资与非投资需求间的套利空间，例如 将金条加工成首饰。随着监管审查强化，市场将进一步整合，消费者可能从水贝店铺转向大型品牌。 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS indicates that China's adjustment of the gold value-added tax (VAT) deduction policy aims to centralize regulation of investment product demand, with reduced liquidity potentially driving some demand towards gold ETFs [1] Group 1: Impact on Investment Demand - The increase in VAT will exert pressure on recent gold product demand and reduce the arbitrage opportunities between investment and non-investment demand, such as converting gold bars into jewelry [1] - The tightening of regulatory scrutiny is expected to lead to further market consolidation, with consumers likely shifting from smaller shops to larger brands [1] Group 2: Effects on Jewelry Consumption - UBS believes that the new 7% tax will be passed on to consumers, impacting the jewelry consumption sector regardless of whether sales occur through direct or franchise channels [1] - Short-term demand for Lao Pu Gold and Chow Tai Fook may face pressure, but both companies are expected to further consolidate the market in the long term [1] Group 3: Financial Implications for Companies - Assuming the VAT refund rate decreases from 13% to 6%, Lao Pu Gold's gross margin is estimated to face a pressure of 3 to 4 percentage points; however, the company raised prices by over 20% recently, which may offset some of the impact [1] - Chow Tai Fook has recently increased the prices of weighted gold products by 5%, transferring the gross margin pressure onto consumers [1]