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中金:维持周大福(01929)“跑赢行业”评级 上调目标价至14.92港元
智通财经网· 2025-06-13 01:25
Core Viewpoint - The company has shown continuous operational improvement, leading to an upward revision of FY26/27 EPS forecasts by 9% to HKD 0.83 and HKD 0.91, respectively, with a target price increase of 31% to HKD 14.92, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - FY25 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue down 17.5% year-on-year and net profit attributable to shareholders down 9% to HKD 5.9 billion, primarily due to better-than-expected gross margin performance [2] - The company proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.32 per share, resulting in an annual payout ratio of 87.8%, maintaining a high dividend distribution [2] Group 2: Revenue and Store Management - Revenue decline of 17.5% in FY25 occurred despite a 40% increase in gold prices, with a better performance in the second half of the fiscal year, where the decline was 15% compared to 20% in the first half [3] - The company opened 5 new image stores in mainland China and Hong Kong while closing underperforming stores, resulting in a 12% reduction in store count to 6,501, with same-store sales in mainland China down 19% [3] - New product lines, such as the Chuanfu series and the Palace Museum series, generated over HKD 4 billion in retail sales, showcasing the company's strong product innovation capabilities [3] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Control - Gross margin improved by 5.6 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from rising gold prices and an increased proportion of high-margin fixed-price products, while operating profit margin rose by 4.1 percentage points [4] - The company managed to control selling and administrative expenses, with a slight increase of 1.6 percentage points in expense ratio despite declining revenue [4] Group 4: Inventory Management - Total inventory decreased by 14% year-on-year to HKD 55.4 billion, but inventory turnover days increased by 73 days due to weak sales of weighted gold products and gemstone jewelry [5] - Operating cash flow from activities fell by 25% year-on-year to HKD 10.3 billion [5] Group 5: Future Outlook - For FY26, the company expects revenue growth in the low single digits year-on-year, with a potential decline in gross margin by 0.8-1.2 percentage points due to reduced contributions from rising gold prices, while operating profit margin is anticipated to decrease by 0.6-1 percentage points [6]