Core Insights - The current upward trend in gold prices is facing pressure, raising questions about whether this rally is nearing a turning point [1] - There is a need for a strategic approach in the short term regarding gold investments [1] Summary by Categories - **Market Trends** - Gold prices are experiencing upward movement but are under pressure, indicating potential volatility ahead [1] - **Investment Strategy** - A discussion is ongoing regarding the appropriate strategies to adopt in the short term for gold investments [1]

Market Reaction - The news of potential dismissal of Fed Chairman Powell led to a spike in spot gold prices from $3,320 to around $3,340 per ounce, eventually reaching $3,378 per ounce in London [1] - The US dollar index fell below the 98 mark, and major US stocks experienced a decline, while non-US currencies surged [1] Federal Reserve Insights - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July was reported at 95.3%, with a 4.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut [1] - By September, the probability of maintaining rates dropped to 32%, while the likelihood of a cumulative 25 basis point cut rose to 64.9% [1] Technical Analysis - Spot gold found strong support at $3,320 per ounce, with a previous resistance level at $3,365 per ounce pushed up to $3,378 due to the Powell incident [3] - The market is currently in a large range-bound trading pattern, with $3,320 as a potential support or stop-loss level and $3,378 as a resistance or stop-loss level [3] Trading Strategy - Recommendations include buying near $3,320 with a stop-loss of $7 and targeting $3,350 to $3,370, while considering selling near $3,378 with the same stop-loss and targeting $3,320 to $3,330 [4]

Group 1: International Gold Prices and Trends - On July 10, 2025, the international gold price closed at $3,294.96 per ounce, down $6.57 from the previous day, with a trading range of $3,284.87 to $3,307.79 per ounce [2] - Other precious metals also experienced declines, with silver at $36.5 per ounce (down $0.23), platinum at $1,377.85 per ounce (down $13.45), and palladium at $1,117.6 per ounce (down $4.1) [2] Group 2: Domestic Gold Prices and Recovery Prices - Domestic retail gold prices ranged from 788 to 999 yuan per gram, with investment gold bars priced at 781 yuan per gram; major brands showed varied price movements [3] - Notable price changes included Chow Sang Sang at 999 yuan per gram (down 8 yuan), and other brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang at 998 yuan per gram (down 6 to 7 yuan) [3] - Recovery prices for different gold purities were reported, with 750 gold at 543 yuan per gram and platinum at 290 yuan per gram [3] Group 3: Paper Gold and Shanghai Gold Exchange Trends - The paper gold market saw a trading price of 762.76 yuan per gram, up 0.22%, while paper silver, platinum, and palladium also increased [4] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported declines in various gold products, with price drops ranging from 1.01% to 1.17%, and a slight decrease of 0.21% in silver T D prices [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies in Gold - The investment strategy for gold should adapt to the changing international financial environment, with a focus on long-term holding to mitigate risks [5] - Historical data suggests that holding gold for over five years yields stable returns, and investors are advised to allocate 5% to 15% of their total assets to gold [5] - Short-term trading strategies should consider key indicators such as central bank gold purchases, U.S. real interest rates, and geopolitical risks [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are primarily driven by real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation expectations) and safe-haven demand, while being influenced by variables such as the US dollar exchange rate, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical tensions [2] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The market is in a unique phase where high real interest rates suppress gold prices, but safe-haven demand and de-dollarization trends support them [2] - The Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle, but the timing of potential rate cuts remains contentious [4] - US CPI remains stubbornly above 3%, indicating a slowdown in the disinflation process [4] - Ongoing geopolitical risks include the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East [4] - In 2023, global central banks net purchased 1,037 tons of gold, marking the second-highest level in history [4] Group 2: Historical Analysis and Patterns - Analyzing the past 20 years of gold price movements reveals key patterns regarding pullback magnitudes and durations [5] - In non-extreme crises, a 20%-25% pullback often indicates a mid-term bottom [7] - Rapid declines (over 15% in 1-3 months) tend to have a high probability of subsequent rebounds [7] - Gold typically begins to form a bottom 6-12 months before a shift in Federal Reserve policy [7] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The long-term upward trend line since 2020 is positioned between $1,850 and $1,900 per ounce [10] - The 200-week moving average support has risen to $1,800, which has never been effectively breached in the past decade [10] - Key Fibonacci retracement levels are at $1,880 (38.2% retracement) and $1,750 (50% retracement in extreme risk scenarios) [10] - Institutional accumulation costs are concentrated in the $1,900 to $1,950 range [10] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Aggressive investors may consider starting to accumulate gold if prices drop to $1,900 (approximately 5% decline) [11] - Conservative investors should wait for a breach below $1,850 (10% decline) before entering [11] - Technical signals for entry include a daily RSI below 30 and a close above the 20-day moving average [11] - The global cash cost of gold mining is around $1,300, providing a significant margin of safety below $1,600 [11] Group 5: Tactical and Strategic Opportunities - Tactical opportunities may arise if gold prices fall below $1,900, while a panic sell-off to $1,750 could represent a once-in-a-decade buying opportunity [16] - The ultimate signal for a major upward trend in gold is typically seen within six months following the Federal Reserve's first rate cut [16] - High-profile institutions like Goldman Sachs and Bridgewater suggest that gold could maintain a range of $1,900 to $2,100 under soft landing scenarios, and potentially rise to $2,500 during a recession [16]

Core Insights - The recent volatility in the gold market has led to a decline in gold prices, prompting renewed investor interest due to multiple influencing factors such as global economic conditions, geopolitical risks, and investor sentiment [1] Price Decline Analysis - The strengthening of the US dollar has put pressure on gold prices, as there is an inverse relationship between gold prices and the dollar [4] - Signs of global economic recovery, driven by increased vaccination rates, have led investors to favor riskier assets like stocks over gold [4] - A reduction in geopolitical tensions has also contributed to lower demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4] Market Trends - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are expected to continue due to the influence of the dollar, global economic recovery, and geopolitical factors [4] - In the medium to long term, gold's status as a safe-haven asset will remain relevant, especially as central bank policies may lead to currency depreciation risks, potentially increasing demand for gold [4] Investment Recommendations - Investors should closely monitor global economic developments, particularly changes in monetary and fiscal policies of major economies [6] - Diversifying investment risks is crucial, suggesting a mix of gold assets, including physical gold, gold ETFs, and related stocks and funds [6] - Adapting investment strategies based on market trends, such as buying on dips and selling on highs, is recommended to mitigate risks [6] - Attention to geopolitical factors is essential, as they significantly impact gold prices [6] - Long-term value investment in gold should not be overlooked due to its hedging and preservation functions [6] Strategic Considerations - Continuous monitoring of market dynamics is necessary for timely adjustments in investment strategies [7] - Investors should align their investments with their risk tolerance to avoid impulsive decisions [7] - Emphasizing diversified investments, including stocks and funds related to gold, can help lower risks [7] - Long-term investors should maintain confidence in gold's enduring value [7]

Group 1: Market Trends and Drivers - The relationship between gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields exhibits a "see-saw effect," with rising yields due to long-term U.S. deficit concerns, yet gold prices are strengthening, indicating deep-seated market anxiety about the U.S. dollar's credit system [1] - Despite the upward pressure on gold prices from rising Treasury yields, concerns over inflation and debt default risks are driving gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Gold investment is complex due to its multiple attributes as a commodity, currency, and safe-haven asset; margin trading in the Shanghai gold futures market allows investors to leverage their positions, but this can amplify both gains and losses [3] - As of May 23, 2025, the price difference between London and Shanghai gold indicates a structural opportunity, with a spread of 12.9% requiring real-time monitoring of exchange rates and capital flow policies [3] Group 3: Risk Assessment - Current risks in the gold market can be summarized as three uncertainties: potential hawkish shifts in Federal Reserve policy, U.S. government debt issues leading to reduced safe-haven demand, and decreased physical demand from emerging market central banks [5] - Technical analysis shows that gold prices faced profit-taking pressure after reaching $3,300.80, indicating volatility in high price regions [5] Group 4: Historical Data Comparison - Comparing current gold prices with historical cycles reveals significant differences; the current support logic for gold is more diversified than in 2011, with low opportunity costs for holding gold as indicated by TIPS yields [6] Group 5: Structural Changes in the Market - The development of the Shanghai gold market highlights structural changes, with daily trading volumes increasing from under 50 tons in 2011 to over 300 tons in 2025, reflecting the rise of Asian market pricing power [8] Group 6: Conclusion and Navigation - Investors need a "multi-dimensional compass" to navigate the current gold market, focusing on macro indicators like Federal Reserve decisions and micro signals such as the Shanghai-London price spread [9] - Risk managers should assess the volatility contribution of gold assets in their portfolios to avoid excessive exposure to a single asset [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the recent volatility in gold prices, likening it to a "roller coaster" and questioning whether investors should buy the dip or sell at the peak [1] - Gold prices have fluctuated significantly since April 2025, with a peak of over $3500 per ounce on April 22, followed by a decline to $3325 per ounce by May 9, representing a drop of over 9% [2] - Historical data indicates that gold price fluctuations are not uncommon, with notable increases and decreases occurring over the decades, such as the rise from approximately $35 per ounce in 1970 to nearly $900 per ounce in 1980, followed by a prolonged bear market [4] Group 2 - The historical patterns of gold price movements are closely tied to macroeconomic conditions, with demand for gold typically rising during economic downturns and falling during periods of economic prosperity [5] - Factors such as monetary policy and geopolitical tensions significantly influence gold prices, with recent events like U.S. tariff policies and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine contributing to increased demand for gold as a safe haven [5][6] Group 3 - Technical analysis suggests that the rapid increase in gold prices in April led to overbought conditions, indicating a potential for short-term price corrections [7] - Profit-taking by investors following the price surge has created selling pressure, contributing to the recent declines in gold prices [8] Group 4 - Citibank has lowered its three-month gold price target from $3500 to $3150 per ounce, expecting prices to stabilize between $3000 and $3300 per ounce [9] - UBS forecasts a 12-month target price of $3500 per ounce, with potential scenarios ranging from $3200 to $3800 depending on geopolitical risks and economic conditions [9] - Goldman Sachs projects a year-end target price of $3700 per ounce, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and increased central bank gold purchases [10] Group 5 - Historical comparisons suggest that the current macroeconomic environment bears similarities to the 1970s, indicating that gold may experience a period of adjustment and consolidation following significant price increases [12] - The analysis of past price movements indicates that after a substantial rise, gold prices may stabilize or experience fluctuations for several months before resuming an upward trend [12] Group 6 - Investors are advised to adopt different strategies based on their investment horizons, with long-term investors encouraged to maintain a 15%-20% allocation to gold in their portfolios, while short-term traders should monitor technical levels for potential buying opportunities [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are experiencing upward momentum after testing the key support level of 3350, but signs of high-level stagnation are emerging as the price struggles to break through the 3400 mark [1][3] - Current market conditions suggest that it is not suitable to chase long positions directly, and investors are advised to remain cautious and wait for a price pullback to the key support range of 3370-3365 before considering new positions [3][4] - The market is showing increased volatility with a three-time attempt to reach higher prices, indicating a potential short-term top risk if the 3400 level is not effectively breached [3][4] Group 2 - The suggested trading strategy includes buying on a pullback to the 3372-3367 range, with a stop loss at 3360 and a target of 3388-3400, potentially extending to 3422 if the breakout occurs [4] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of self-discipline and a comprehensive understanding of the investment ecosystem, including investment philosophy, mindset, capital management, risk control, and operational strategies [4]

Core Insights - Gold remains a central asset in investor portfolios amid volatile global financial markets, serving as a traditional safe haven [1] - Velos Markets offers a flexible and professional trading platform for spot gold, forex, and CFDs, providing essential tools for investors to navigate market uncertainties [1] Group 1: Trading Mechanism and Platform Advantages - Velos Markets employs a T+0 trading mechanism, allowing investors to buy and sell gold within the same trading day without waiting for settlement [2] - The platform offers leveraged investment options, enabling traders to control larger positions, such as using 1:100 leverage to manage $100 worth of gold with just $1 of capital [2] - Integration with professional trading terminals like MT4/MT5 supports real-time data, technical indicators, and automated trading scripts, catering to institutional clients with API access for low-latency trading [2] Group 2: Market Analysis Framework - The research framework emphasizes the interplay of macroeconomics, geopolitical factors, and market sentiment, illustrated by the impact of the 2024 Federal Reserve interest rate cycle on gold prices [4] - Historical data indicates that gold prices typically face pressure when real interest rates exceed 1.5%, but geopolitical tensions can mitigate this effect, creating a "seesaw effect" [4] - Seasonal trends, such as increased physical gold purchases during the Chinese New Year, can lead to price increases of 3-5% [4] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - Velos Markets recommends a "pyramid risk management" approach, with a base layer of hard stop-losses set at 1-2% of account equity, and higher layers utilizing hedging tools like gold options [5] - A case study showed a client achieving a 12.7% hedging return during the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank crisis by holding both long gold and VIX call options [5] - The platform's risk alert system triggers margin adjustments when gold price volatility exceeds the historical 90th percentile, effectively managing risk exposure [5] Group 4: Practical Trading Strategies - Day traders are advised to focus on price gaps around London gold fixing times, with a 58% success rate during high liquidity periods [7] - Trend followers should use a combination of 20-day and 60-day moving averages, capturing an average of 75% in trending markets when specific conditions are met [7] - Arbitrage traders can exploit price differences between Shanghai Gold Exchange and London spot gold, particularly when premiums exceed $2 per ounce [7] Group 5: Account Management and Tools - The account opening process involves a three-tier verification system, allowing professional investors to bypass certain restrictions [9] - The "2% rule" is recommended for risk management, ensuring that no single trade risks more than 2% of total capital [9] - Velos Markets has introduced a "Gold-Bitcoin Correlation Index" to analyze the relationship between these assets, enhancing risk diversification strategies [9]