Q&A 利率 - 再论中期经济增速与合意利率水平 20251110 摘要 当前经济数据初步显示经济增长动能依然偏弱，年底前货币政策存在进 一步宽松的可能性，预计利率有望创新低，例如 10 年期国债收益率可 能跌破 1.6%。 根据十五规划建议稿，到 2035 年中国人均收入需达到 2 万美元左右， 对应的年均 GDP 增速约为 3.5%至 4.36%，考虑到人口老龄化等因素， 这一目标更贴近实际情况。 经济增速与利率之间存在显著正相关关系，但两者之间的点差是时变的， 不同阶段这种关系会有所不同，未来十年的实际 GDP 增长和通胀水平将 决定名义 GDP 与长端利率之间的点差。 市场对三月份以来的不确定性已经消除，大量有利因素正在累积，包括 货币政策进一步宽松、供需关系改善等，坚定看多债市，并建议投资者 把握左侧机会。 央行在支持经济增长和控制通胀方面需要平衡，一般来说，利率需要低 于货币供应量（M2）的增速 1.5%到 2.5%之间，我国自有债券市场以 来，利率一直低于 M2 增速。 并建议投资者把握左侧机会。目前各个维度都显示出对债市有力支持，包括央 行买卖国债、政府债发行缩量以及跨年度配置需求增加等。因此 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - To reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035, the official interpretation corresponds to a nominal GDP growth rate of 3.7% or a real GDP growth rate of 4.16% in the next 10 years. The lower - bound requirements for the real GDP growth rate during the 15th and 16th Five - Year Plans are around 4.5% and 4% respectively. The relationship between economic growth and interest rates is positive, but their relative positions are not fixed. Considering inflation, the nominal GDP growth rate in the next 10 years may range from 3% to 6%, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate during the 15th Five - Year Plan may range from 1.2% to 2.4%. Based on the neutral interest rate theory, the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate center is 1.5%, and the low point can be lower. The economy may still be in a weak recovery this quarter, and the bond market is in a favorable position. With the upcoming implementation of the new regulations on fund sales, it is recommended to seize the opportunity to go long, and interest rates are expected to hit a new low by the end of the year [2]. - There are two ways to view China's economic growth rate in the next decade: reaching a per - capita GDP of $20,000 and doubling the per - capita GDP compared to 2020 (at 2020 constant prices), corresponding to a nominal growth rate of 3.70% and a real growth rate of 4.16% respectively. By back - calculation, the average annual GDP growth rates during the 15th and 16th Five - Year Plans are about 4.5% and 4.0% [2]. - Comparing with overseas countries, interest rates are positively correlated with nominal GDP growth rates, but there is no consistent conclusion on their relative positions and the spread level, which reflects the strength of endogenous demand and the inflation center. Currently, the quarterly average of China's nominal GDP interest rate minus the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is about 2%, which is slightly higher than the overseas level this year but neutral compared to overseas history. Combining the golden rule and the neutral interest rate theory, China's actual situation is "real GDP growth rate - 4+1" [2]. - Assuming different inflation scenarios (negative, slightly positive, and normal), the nominal GDP growth rate may range from 3% to 6%. From the lower - bound perspective, if the nominal GDP decreases by 1 percentage point, the interest rate decline should be less than 1 percentage point, with the interest rate lows during the 15th and 16th Five - Year Plans at 1.2% and 0.7% respectively. From the upper - bound perspective, considering the relative position between the nominal GDP high point in 2021 and the interest rate, the interest rate high point is about 2.4% [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Potential Growth Rate and Appropriate Interest Rate Level 1.1 Future Growth Rates in the Next Two Five - Year Plans - Referring to the 2035 long - term goal, two assumptions are considered: reaching a per - capita GDP of $20,000 by 2035, with a 3.90% annual compound growth rate of per - capita nominal GDP in the next 10 years; doubling the per - capita GDP compared to 2020 (at 2020 constant prices), with a 4.36% annual compound growth rate of per - capita real GDP. Considering the population decline, the average annual GDP growth rate requirements by 2035 are a nominal growth rate of 3.70% and a real growth rate of 4.16%. The lower - bound requirements for the average annual real GDP growth rate during the 15th and 16th Five - Year Plans are about 4.5% and 4.0% respectively [6][7][8] 1.2 Relationship between Economy and Interest Rates - **Overseas Comparison**: Static analysis shows a significant positive correlation between GDP growth rates and broad - spectrum interest rates. Dynamically, the centers of nominal GDP growth rates and interest rates are not completely consistent. The relative position between interest rates and nominal GDP depends on monetary policy goals and central bank attitudes, reflecting the strength of endogenous demand and the inflation center. There is no unified conclusion on the appropriate spread between nominal GDP growth rates and long - term interest rates. Different periods in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan have different spreads. In China, long - term interest rates are always lower than the nominal GDP level, showing financial repression, and the spread has been compressing in the long - term but fluctuates annually. In the short - term, the spread is positively correlated with the nominal GDP growth rate [12][13][17] - **Theoretical Level**: Based on the "golden rule" of economic growth theory, the long - term interest rate should be slightly lower than or equal to a country's GDP growth rate. Currently, LPR and general loan interest rates are comparable to the GDP growth rate, while the 10Y Treasury bond interest rate is significantly lower. According to the neutral interest rate theory, emerging market countries' neutral interest rates are about 4 percentage points lower than the GDP growth rate, and nominal interest rates need to add 2% inflation expectations. In China, the long - term interest rate is measured by "real GDP growth rate - 3", indicating that the real GDP growth rate may not reflect the potential growth rate or the inflation expectation is about 1%. Assuming a 4.5% real GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter, the long - term interest rate center can be estimated at 1.5% [22] 1.3 Impact of Declining Economic Growth on Interest Rates - Considering different inflation scenarios (inflation returning to 1 - 2% or higher, 0 - 1%, and remaining negative), the nominal GDP growth rate will change accordingly, and interest rates will fluctuate with the nominal GDP growth rate. In the most optimistic scenario for the bond market during the 15th Five - Year Plan, if the nominal and real GDP growth rate centers decline by 0.5 percentage points, the long - term bond interest rate decline will be less than 0.5 percentage points, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is unlikely to be lower than 1.2%. In the pessimistic scenario, if the nominal GDP rebounds, and assuming a 6% rebound high point, the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate high point will be below 2.4%. According to the neutral interest rate theory, if the real GDP growth rate center reaches 4%, the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate center can gradually decline to 1% [24][25] 2. Central Bank Bond Purchases and Bond Market Interest Rates - From November 3rd to 7th, the yield of the 10Y active Treasury bond fluctuated upward. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 1.88BP to 1.81%, and the 10 - year national development bond yield increased by 2.35BP to 1.95%. The 1 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond term spread narrowed by 0.31BP to 40.97BP, while the 1 - year and 10 - year national development bond term spread remained at 33.68BP. Various factors such as central bank reverse - repurchase net withdrawal, bond purchase announcements, stock market fluctuations, and policy rumors affected the bond market during the week [27][28][29] 3. Decline in Wealth Management Product Scale - As of November 2nd, the wealth management product scale was 32.52 billion yuan, with a weekly decline of 74.79 million yuan. From October 27th to November 2nd, the new - issue wealth management product scale was 254.44 million yuan. In November, the scale of fixed - income products decreased. By product type, cash - management products decreased by 76 million yuan, fixed - income products decreased by 290 million yuan, and others had different changes. By product risk, low - risk and medium - low - risk products decreased, while medium - risk and medium - high - risk products had small increases. The net - break rate decreased last week. As of November 5th, the 7 - day average annualized yields of money funds and cash - management products were 1.08% and 1.3% respectively [33][34] 4. Decline in Duration and Stable Disagreement Degree - From November 3rd to 7th, the duration of public funds decreased by 0.04 to 2.38 compared to October 31st, with a weekly average of 2.41. The public fund duration disagreement degree on November 7th remained the same as on October 31st at 0.36 [42]

来源：财经连环话 今早特朗普一条"鼓吹黄金"的帖子刷屏了。 帖文中文直译为："谈判与成功的黄金法则：谁拥有黄金，谁就制定规则。谢谢。"耐人寻味的帖子发布后，现货黄金开盘跳涨，盘中突破 3380美元每盎司，再创历史新高。 此外，白宫与美联储矛盾公开化也在助推金价上行。在特朗普公开发表对鲍威尔不满的次日，白宫国家经济委员会主任哈西特对媒体表示， 特朗普正在研究是否可以开除鲍威尔。特朗普此举实质上已改变了美元作为"免于政治干预的稳定资产"的可兑换性，作为信用货币反面的黄 金自然扶摇直上。 值得注意的是，这已是特朗普年内第二次通过社交媒体影响资本市场。此前其关于特朗普媒体科技集团（DJT）和"做多美股"的喊话，均引 发相关标的大幅波动。 但据国际财闻汇核查，"He who has the gold makes the rules"这一表述源于西方谚语，原指掌握财富者主导规则制定权。大概的意思 是"有钱能使鬼推磨"，这里的"gold"泛指财富、资源和权力。 如此一来，市场可能会错意了。此番表态也可以解读为，特朗普强辩美国凭借经济实力应该主导贸易谈判规则。此时正值美国暂缓"对等关 税"及与多国启动贸易谈判之际。日美已进行 ...