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东吴证券:预测年内PPI当月同比稳步回升至-1.5%左右的水平 但转正仍需等待
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-12 00:11
Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities predicts that the Producer Price Index (PPI) will steadily recover to around -1.5% year-on-year by the end of the year, but a positive turnaround is still awaited [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The 10-year government bond is fluctuating at a low of 1.6%, with short-term adjustment pressure coming from a slight rebound in commodity prices, although this non-demand-driven factor is unlikely to trigger a trend-driven bear market [1] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock needs to see a rebound, which is contingent on the "anti-involution" policy from the supply side leading to an increase in corporate profits, followed by improved expectations for household income and an increase in leverage [1] Group 2: Policy Implications - In the long term, while "anti-involution" is a supply-side policy, its ultimate goal is to enhance corporate profits, which will subsequently drive up wages and the prices of land and other factors, potentially translating into increased demand [1] - This demand increase could signal a genuine turning point for bond yields [1]