证券研究报告 | 2026年1月5日 超长债周报 TL 崩盘式下跌再创新低 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周财政工作会议提到扩大财政支出盘子，12 月制造业 PMI 回升 0.9 至 50.1，4 月以来首次重返荣枯线，长期限品种收益率上行， 超长债再度暴跌。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度变化不大，交投非 常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差走阔，品种利差缩窄。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 12 月 31 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 40BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，11 月经济下行压力继续增加。我 们测算的 11 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.1%，增速较 10 月回落 0.1%。通 胀方面，11 月 CPI 为 0.7%，PPI 为-2.2%，通缩风险有所缓解。我们认 为，当前债市震荡概率更大。一方面，去年四季度以来的经济企稳，主 要来自于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到今年四季度并无增发国债，预计四 季度政府债券融资增速快速回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。同时从中 央经济工作会议和政治局会议来看，2026 年党中央更加重视高质量发 展，经济总量"稳中求进"的重要性次 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月28日 超长债周报 年末资金面宽松，超长债继续反弹 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周公布的 LPR 利率保持不变，央行四季度例会提到"充 实完善货币政策工具箱，开展国债买卖，关注长期收益率的变化"，A 股大涨，债市继续反弹，超长债小涨。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃 度小幅下降，交投非常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差缩窄，品 种利差缩窄。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 12 月 26 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 39BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，11 月经济下行压力继续增加。我 们测算的 11 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.1%，增速较 10 月回落 0.1%。通 胀方面，11 月 CPI 为 0.7%，PPI 为-2.2%，通缩风险有所缓解。我们认 为，当前债市震荡概率更大。一方面，去年四季度以来的经济企稳，主 要来自于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到今年四季度并无增发国债，预计四 季度政府债券融资增速快速回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。同时从中 央经济工作会议和政治局会议来看，2026 年党中央更加重视高质量发 展，经济总量"稳中求进 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, after the release of November economic data, the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand in China was prominent, with both production and consumption continuing to decline, but prices showed signs of improvement. The bond market first declined and then rose, showing a small V-shaped trend, slightly warming up throughout the week, and the 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowed slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week, but overall trading was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds flattened, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][11][4]. - The current bond market is more likely to fluctuate. On one hand, the economic stabilization since the fourth quarter of last year mainly comes from the support of central government leveraging. Considering that there is no additional issuance of Treasury bonds in the fourth quarter of this year, it is expected that the financing growth rate of government bonds will decline rapidly in the fourth quarter, and the domestic economy will still be under pressure. On the other hand, the absolute level of interest rates is low, the market is desensitized to positive factors, and investors' sentiment is generally weak [2][3][12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review - Ultra - long Bond Review - After the release of November economic data, the domestic bond market showed a small V - shaped trend and slightly warmed up, with the 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowing slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly but was still very active. The term spread flattened, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][11][4] Weekly Review - Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury bonds**: As of December 19, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 41BP, at a relatively low historical level. The economic downward pressure in November continued to increase, with the estimated GDP growth rate in October at about 4.1%, a decline of 0.1% from October. The deflation risk has been alleviated. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level recently [2][12] - **20 - year CDB bonds**: As of December 19, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year Treasury bonds was 17BP, at an extremely low historical position. Similar to the situation of 30 - year Treasury bonds, the bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [3][13] Weekly Review - Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 24.3 trillion. As of November 30, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of more than 14 years was 243,416 billion, accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety accounts for the highest proportion [14] Primary Market - Weekly Issuance - The issuance volume of ultra - long bonds dropped sharply last week (December 15 - 19, 2025), with a total issuance of 207 billion yuan. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance volume decreased significantly. By variety, local government bonds accounted for the largest share. By term, 30 - year bonds had the largest issuance volume [19] Primary Market - This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week is 12 billion yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [25] Secondary Market - Trading Volume - The trading of ultra - long bonds was very active last week, with a trading volume of 12,302 billion yuan, accounting for 14.1% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity decreased slightly. The trading volume of ultra - long Treasury bonds increased, while that of ultra - long local bonds decreased [27] Secondary Market - Yield - After the release of November economic data, the bond market showed a small V - shaped trend and slightly warmed up, with the 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowing slightly. The yields of different - term Treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds changed to varying degrees [38] Secondary Market - Spread Analysis - **Term spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds flattened last week, and the absolute level was low. The 30 - year - 10 - year Treasury spread was 41BP, unchanged from the previous week, at the 22% quantile since 2010 [48] - **Variety spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed changes last week, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between 20 - year CDB bonds and Treasury bonds, and between 20 - year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were 17BP and 20BP respectively, with changes of 2BP and - 2BP compared with the previous week, at the 14% and 15% quantiles since 2010 [50] 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract TL2603 of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 112.66 yuan, with a 0.00% increase. The total trading volume was 658,100 lots (- 26,189 lots), and the open interest was 141,900 lots (- 718 lots). The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased slightly [55]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, after the release of November economic data, the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand in China was prominent, with both production and consumption continuing to decline, but prices showed signs of improvement. The bond market first declined and then rose, showing a small V-shaped trend, slightly recovering throughout the week, and the 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowed slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week, but overall trading was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][4][11][38]. - As of December 19, the spread between 30 - year Treasury bonds and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 41BP, at a historically low level. The spread between 20 - year China Development Bank bonds and 20 - year Treasury bonds was 17BP, at a historically extremely low position. The current bond market is more likely to fluctuate. The 30 - 10 spread冲高 slightly declined this week, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near future. The variety spread of 20 - year China Development Bank bonds is also expected to fluctuate narrowly [2][3][12][13]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - After the release of November economic data last week, the bond market first declined and then rose, slightly recovering throughout the week, with the 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowing slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly, but overall trading was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][4][11]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of December 19, the spread was 41BP, at a historically low level. In November, the economic downward pressure continued to increase. The estimated GDP growth rate in October was about 4.1% year - on - year, a 0.1% decline from October. The deflation risk was alleviated. The bond market is more likely to fluctuate. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near future [2][12]. - **20 - year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of December 19, the spread was 17BP, at a historically extremely low position. The economic situation and bond market analysis are similar to those of 30 - year Treasury bonds. The variety spread of 20 - year China Development Bank bonds is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3][13]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 24.3 trillion. As of November 30, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of more than 14 years was 24,341.6 billion, accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds were the main varieties. The 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (December 15 - 19, 2025), the issuance of ultra - long bonds dropped sharply, with a total of 207 million yuan issued. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance decreased significantly. In terms of varieties, local government bonds accounted for the majority. In terms of terms, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds were issued [19]. This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week is 120 million yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 123.02 billion yuan, accounting for 14.1% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity decreased slightly. The trading volume and proportion of different varieties changed differently [27]. Yield - After the release of November economic data last week, the bond market showed a small V - shaped trend. The 30 - 10 Treasury spread narrowed slightly. The yields of Treasury bonds, China Development Bank bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different terms changed to different extents [38]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, with an absolute low level. The 30 - year - 10 - year Treasury spread was 41BP, unchanged from the previous week, at the 22% quantile since 2010 [48]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed changes, with an absolute low level. The spreads between 20 - year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, and between 20 - year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were 17BP and 20BP respectively, with changes of 2BP and - 2BP from the previous week, at the 14% and 15% quantiles since 2010 [50]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30 - year Treasury bond futures, TL2603, closed at 112.66 yuan, with a 0.00% increase. The total trading volume was 658,100 lots (- 26,189 lots), and the open interest was 141,900 lots (- 718 lots). The trading volume decreased slightly compared with the previous week, and the open interest decreased slightly [55].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月22日 超长债周报 30-10 利差冲高回落 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周 11 月经济数据出炉，国内供强需弱矛盾突出，生产消 费均继续下行，但物价延续改善迹象，债市先抑后扬，小 V 型走势，全 周略微回暖，30-10 国债利差小幅收窄。成交方面，上周超长债交投活 跃度小幅下降，但总体交投非常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差 走平，品种利差涨跌互现。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 12 月 19 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 41BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，11 月经济下行压力继续增加。我 们测算的 10 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.1%，增速较 10 月回落 0.1%。通 胀方面，11 月 CPI 为 0.7%，PPI 为-2.2%，通缩风险有所缓解。我们认 为，当前债市震荡概率更大。一方面，去年四季度以来的经济企稳，主 要来自于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到今年四季度并无增发国债，预计四 季度政府债券融资增速快速回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。同时从中 央经济工作会议和政治局会议来看，2026 年党中央更加重视高质量发 展，经 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since November, the "stock - bond double - fall" and "stock - bond double - rise" phenomena have frequently occurred, and the yield curve has steepened. The traditional stock - bond seesaw has failed periodically due to changes in loose expectations and institutional behavior [1][9]. - The market's loose expectations have eased, and the growth rate of broad liquidity has declined. The market's expectation of further monetary policy easing next year is not strong. Institutions are taking profits on equity floating gains at the end of the year, and the bond market's ability to hedge equity fluctuations is poor [1][2][9]. - Fundamentally, the economic growth momentum in November was still weak, with some improvement in external demand and inflation but continued drag from domestic demand. However, the bond market was insensitive to fundamental positives. The bond market is expected to remain in an oscillating range, and it is recommended to focus on the coupon strategy at the end of the year [2][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Review Summary and Bond Market Outlook - This week, bond market sentiment was volatile, with institutional behavior dominating the market. The yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury bonds decreased by 1bp and 2bp respectively. The bond market is expected to be affected by the unimplemented public fund fee reform and the performance of the equity market, maintaining an oscillating range [8][10]. II. Bond Market Review 2.1 Funding Situation - The central bank had a net injection, and funding rates remained stable at a low level. This week, the central bank's net open - market injection was 190 billion yuan. Next week, the maturity volume is less than the previous week [12][14]. 2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Yields first rose and then fell. The yields of key - term Treasury bonds decreased, and most key - term Treasury bond spreads widened. The spread between 10Y and 30Y Treasury bonds decreased by 1bp to 39bp, at a high historical percentile [22]. 2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - The inter - bank leverage ratio continued to rise to 108.0%, and the exchange leverage ratio rose to 123.3%. The median duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds decreased slightly, and the implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds narrowed [33]. 2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds decreased by 383.4 billion yuan compared with last week. Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds all saw a decline in net financing. Next week, a 7Y Treasury bond will be newly issued, and the planned issuance scale of local government bonds will decrease [45][49]. III. Economic Data - In November, industrial growth slowed slightly, and investment and consumption demand weakened. Since December, second - hand housing transactions and automobile consumption have recovered. Industrial production performance remains divided [56]. IV. Overseas Bond Markets - US inflation data was unexpectedly lower than expected, increasing the probability of a Fed rate cut in March next year. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points. US bonds rose, and the Japanese bond market fell [64][65]. V. Major Asset Classes - The CSI 300 index adjusted slightly this week. The Nanhua Rebar Index and Shanghai gold rose, while the Nanhua Crude Oil Index weakened. The performance of major asset classes was: rebar > Shanghai gold > convertible bonds > US dollar > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > Chinese bonds > live pigs > CSI 300 > CSI 1000 > Shanghai copper > crude oil [69]. VI. Policy Review - Multiple policies were introduced this week, including the State Council's deployment of implementing the decisions of the Central Economic Work Conference, the opening of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's bond repurchase business to overseas institutional investors, the public consultation on the "Insurance Company Asset - Liability Management Measures", the proposal of ideas for expanding effective investment in the "14th Five - Year Plan", and the deployment of the CSRC and Shenzhen Financial Office [72][74][75].

上周国内权益市场延续高位震荡走势，万得全A周涨幅在0.2%附近，其中周一和周五的成交额有所放 大，再度回到两万亿元以上，市场热点集中在部分题材板块。从行业来看，通信、军工、电子涨幅较 大，而传统板块煤炭、石油石化和纺织服装跌幅较大。 备受投资者瞩目的中央经济工作会议在上周召开，会议总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署 2026年经济工作。泓德基金表示，2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年，做好经济工作至关重要，"五个必 须"既对以往经济实践作出了深刻精辟的总结，也为做好当前和今后一个时期的经济工作提供了思想指 引和行动指南。 12月8日，海关总署公布数据显示，中国11月出口（以美元计价）同比增5.9%，前值下降1.1%；进口增 长1.9%，前值增1%；贸易顺差1116.8亿美元，前值900.7亿美元。泓德基金分析指出，随着节日效应和 高基数影响回落，11月出口数据保持韧性。从1-11月累计来看，今年以来出口同比增长5.4%（2024年同 比增长5.8%），虽然2025年以来我国面临美国新一轮关税冲击的挑战，但是出口表现颇具韧性，一是 转出口贸易提振，二是我国产品竞争力较强，出口强劲是今年我国经济的一大 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月30日 超长债周报 TL 放量大跌 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周 A 股连续反弹，万科展期一度拖累债市情绪，周五传 六大行停售五年期大额存单，并调降三年期存款产品利率，国内降息预 期升温债市小幅反弹，全周来看债市先抑后扬，超长债继续下跌。成交 方面，上周超长债交投活跃度保持平稳，交投非常活跃。利差方面，上 周超长债期限利差走平，品种利差缩窄。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 11 月 30 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 34BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，10 月经济下行压力继续增加。我 们测算的 10 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.2%，增速较 9 月回落 1.1%。通胀 方面，10 月 CPI 为 0.2%，PPI 为-2.1%，通缩风险依存。我们认为，当 前债市低位震荡概率更大。一方面，去年四季度以来的经济企稳，主要 来自于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到今年四季度增发国债的概率较低，预 计四季度政府债券融资增速继续回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。另一 方面，利率绝对水平偏低，市场对利好因素有所脱敏，近期投资者情绪 转弱。另外 30-1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the A-share market rebounded continuously. Vanke's debt extension once dragged down bond market sentiment. On Friday, it was reported that the six major banks stopped selling five-year large - denomination certificates of deposit and lowered the interest rates of three - year deposit products, which increased the expectation of domestic interest rate cuts and led to a slight rebound in the bond market. Overall, the bond market first declined and then rebounded, while ultra - long bonds continued to fall. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds remained stable and was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][11][37]. - The current bond market is more likely to fluctuate at a low level. The economic stabilization since last Q4 mainly comes from the central government's leverage increase. Considering the low probability of additional treasury bond issuance in Q4 this year, the growth rate of government bond financing is expected to continue to decline, and the domestic economy in Q4 remains under pressure. Also, the absolute level of interest rates is low, the market is desensitized to positive factors, and investor sentiment has recently weakened [2][3][12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - The A - share market rebounded continuously last week. Vanke's debt extension affected bond market sentiment. On Friday, news of interest rate adjustments increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, causing a slight rebound in the bond market. Overall, ultra - long bonds fell, trading activity was stable and active, the term spread remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][11][37]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of November 30, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 34BP, at a historically low level. In October, the economic downward pressure increased, with GDP growth estimated at about 4.2% year - on - year, a 1.1% decline from September. CPI was 0.2%, and PPI was - 2.1%, indicating deflation risk. The bond market is likely to fluctuate at a low level, and the spread repair is expected to end [2][12]. - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of November 30, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 12BP, at a historically extremely low level. The economic situation in October was similar to that for 30 - year bonds. The bond market is likely to fluctuate at a low level, and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [3][13]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 24.3 trillion. As of November 30, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 243,416 billion (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 15.1% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties [14]. - By variety, treasury bonds account for 26.8% (65,243 billion), local government bonds account for 67.8% (165,015 billion), and other varieties account for a small proportion [14]. - By remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety accounts for the highest proportion. The amount in the 14 - 18 - year range is 60,963 billion (25.0%), 18 - 25 - year is 70,852 billion (29.1%), 25 - 35 - year is 97,548 billion (40.1%), and over 35 - year is 14,055 billion (5.8%) [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (November 24 - 28, 2025), the issuance of ultra - long bonds increased sharply, with a total issuance of 1,735 billion yuan. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance increased significantly [19]. - By variety, local government bonds issued 1,732 billion yuan, and corporate bonds issued 3 billion yuan, while other varieties issued 0 billion yuan [19]. - By term, 15 - year bonds issued 482 billion yuan, 20 - year bonds issued 367 billion yuan, 30 - year bonds issued 887 billion yuan, and 50 - year bonds issued 0 billion yuan [19]. This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week is 558 billion yuan. Among them, ultra - long treasury bonds are 270 billion yuan, and ultra - long local government bonds are 288 billion yuan [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 9,136 billion yuan, accounting for 11.3% of all bond trading volume. By variety, ultra - long treasury bonds accounted for 33.9% of all treasury bond trading volume, ultra - long local bonds accounted for 50.3% of all local bond trading volume, ultra - long policy - financial bonds accounted for 0.2% of all policy - financial bond trading volume, and ultra - long government agency bonds accounted for 24.4% of all government agency bond trading volume [27]. - Compared with the previous week, the trading volume of ultra - long bonds decreased by 125 billion yuan, with the proportion remaining unchanged. The trading volume of ultra - long treasury bonds increased by 385 billion yuan, the proportion decreased by 1.8%; the trading volume of ultra - long local bonds decreased by 470 billion yuan, the proportion decreased by 3.4%; the trading volume of ultra - long policy - financial bonds increased by 14 billion yuan, the proportion increased by 0.1%; the trading volume of ultra - long government agency bonds increased by 2 billion yuan, the proportion increased by 11.7% [27]. Yield - Last week, the bond market first declined and then rebounded, and ultra - long bonds continued to fall. For treasury bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by 3BP, 4BP, 3BP, and 5BP to 2.09%, 2.20%, 2.19%, and 2.36% respectively. For CDB bonds, the corresponding yields changed by 3BP, 3BP, 2BP, and 5BP to 2.21%, 2.32%, 2.32%, and 2.49% respectively. For local bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by 5BP, 7BP, and 7BP to 2.33%, 2.41%, and 2.41% respectively. For railway bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by 3BP, 4BP, and 4BP to 2.29%, 2.37%, and 2.42% respectively [37]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, with an absolute low level. The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 34BP, unchanged from the previous week, at the 15th percentile since 2010 [48]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, with an absolute low level. The spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds was 12BP, and the spread between 20 - year railway bonds and treasury bonds was 18BP, changing by - 1BP and 0BP respectively from the previous week, at the 10th and 13th percentiles since 2010 [49]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2603, closed at 114.46 yuan, a decrease of 0.81%. The total trading volume was 92,500 lots (17,365 lots), and the open interest was 147,400 lots (38,082 lots). The trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with the previous week [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market rose significantly due to factors such as the central bank governor's announcement to resume open - market treasury bond trading, the Sino - US summit consensus, and the Fed's interest rate cut. The decline of ultra - long bonds was slightly less, and the curve steepened. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly but remained very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the variety spread widened [1][10]. - Considering the domestic economic situation and the central bank's policy, the probability of a bond market rebound is high. The 30 - 10 spread of treasury bonds and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds are expected to compress [2][3]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - Last week, the bond market soared. The decline of ultra - long bonds was slightly less, the curve steepened. Trading activity decreased slightly but was still very active. The term spread narrowed, and the variety spread widened [1][10]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of October 31, the 30 - 10 spread was 35BP, at a historically low level. With economic downward pressure and deflation risks, the bond market is likely to rebound, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress [2][11]. - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of October 31, the 20 - year CDB - treasury spread was 15BP, at a historically extremely low position. Given economic conditions, the bond market is likely to rebound, and the variety spread is expected to compress again [3][12]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 23.9 trillion. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. The 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds decreased. A total of 105.1 billion yuan of ultra - long bonds were issued, mainly local government bonds. By term, 15 - year bonds were 25.3 billion, 20 - year were 30.8 billion, and 30 - year were 49 billion [19]. This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan this week is 62.9 billion yuan, including 20 billion of ultra - long treasury bonds, 41.4 billion of ultra - long local government bonds, and 1.5 billion of ultra - long medium - term notes [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were very actively traded, with a turnover of 1.0428 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.2% of all bond turnover. Trading activity decreased slightly. Compared with the previous week, the turnover increased by 11.2 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 0.3% [28]. Yield - Due to multiple factors, the bond market rose, and the decline of ultra - long bonds was slightly less. The yields of different - term and different - type bonds changed accordingly. For example, the 30 - year treasury bond active bond 25 ultra - long special treasury bond 02's yield changed by - 3.9BP to 2.07% [41][42]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 35BP, 1BP lower than the previous week, at the 15% quantile since 2010 [48]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The 20 - year CDB - treasury spread and 20 - year railway bond - treasury spread changed by 3BP and 6BP respectively, at the 12% and 13% quantiles since 2010 [50]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the 3 - year treasury bond futures' main variety TL2512 closed at 116.68 yuan, an increase of 1.45%. The total trading volume was 678,600 lots (- 14,457 lots), and the open interest was 182,800 lots (+ 6,763 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest increased slightly [55].