When billionaire Ken Griffin pours billions into a stock, investors pay attention. Griffin’s Citadel added approximately $2.52 billion worth of Amazon (AMZN) stock, taking its position to more than $3.2 billion, per its latest 13F filing. The hedge fund also doubled its stake in AI bellwether Nvidia (NVDA), cementing a position that’s worth nearly $4 billion. The massive bets clearly point to Griffin wanting more exposure to the relentless AI arms race. Amazon stock has wobbled of late, on the back of ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming week is significant for the financial markets, with the first Federal Reserve meeting of 2026 and the Q4 earnings results from major tech companies, known as the "Magnificent Seven" [2][3][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady during its first meeting of 2026, with a focus on maintaining its independence amid political pressures [3][4]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference, marking the first since the Trump administration's investigation into the Fed's refurbishment costs [4][5]. Group 2: Q4 Earnings from Magnificent Seven - Four out of the seven major U.S. tech companies, including Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Tesla, will report their Q4 earnings this week, alongside South Korea's Samsung [6]. - Companies are under pressure to not only meet but exceed earnings forecasts and provide strong guidance to justify their high valuations [7]. Group 3: Yen and Japanese Elections - Japan is preparing for a snap election on February 8, with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's policies affecting the yen and government bonds [8]. - Analysts express concerns over the yen's stability, particularly in light of Japan's high debt-to-GDP ratio of 221% [9]. Group 4: Emerging Market Central Bank Meetings - Several emerging market central banks are meeting, with Brazil and Chile expected to maintain their current interest rates, while Colombia is anticipated to cut rates [10][11][12]. - Ghana is expected to make a significant rate cut of 300 basis points due to currency instability [12]. Group 5: Greenland Stabilization - The geopolitical situation regarding Greenland is stabilizing, which could positively impact global stock markets and reduce gold prices, currently above $5,000 an ounce [13][14]. Group 6: Key Global Macro Events - Key economic indicators such as Durable Goods Orders and the Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released, with expectations of a slight decrease in initial jobless claims [15][16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The Q4 2025 earnings season for US corporations is set to begin, with expectations of continued corporate earnings growth, particularly in the technology and financial sectors, as investors assess market momentum for the new year [1][10]. Earnings Growth and Economic Resilience - Earnings growth in 2025 reflects the resilience of the US economy, with corporations and consumers adapting to challenges such as the Fed's rate hikes and trade shocks [2]. - US companies managed to maintain profit growth by pivoting production, renegotiating with suppliers, and passing costs onto consumers, contrary to expectations of significant cost-cutting [3]. Q4 Earnings Expectations - The consensus for Q4 S&P 500 EPS growth is projected at 8.3%, marking the 10th consecutive quarter of growth, while revenues are expected to grow by 7.7% year-over-year [5]. - Eight out of eleven S&P sectors are anticipated to show year-over-year gains, with Information Technology (25.9%), Materials (9.0%), and Financials (6.4%) leading [6]. Financial Sector Insights - The financial sector is expected to perform strongly, with a focus on deal-making, net interest income (NII), and regulatory changes [6][7][8]. - Global M&A volume reached approximately $5 trillion in 2025, a 40% increase from the previous year, indicating a revival in Wall Street fees [7]. - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts to the 3.50%-3.75% range may impact banks' profit margins, making guidance on NII from major banks crucial [8]. Consumer Health Indicators - Despite economic pressures, US consumers have shown resilience, with credit card delinquency data being a key indicator of consumer health [12]. - If delinquency rates remain below 3%, it could signal a soft landing for the economy [12]. Upcoming Earnings Season - The peak weeks of the Q4 earnings season are expected between January 26 and February 27, with over 1,000 reports anticipated each week [13]. - February 26 is predicted to be the most active day, with 855 companies expected to report their earnings [13].

Market Performance - The S&P 500 gained approximately 2.3% for the holiday-shortened week, while the Dow and Nasdaq Composite increased by about 1.6% and 2.5%, respectively [1] - The S&P 500 closed at 6,929.94 on Friday, with predictions from JPMorgan Chase and HSBC suggesting it could reach 7,500 by year-end 2026, while Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank set even higher targets of 7,800 and 8,000 [7] Santa Claus Rally - The current market momentum suggests a favorable setup for a positive "Santa Claus Rally," which is historically a bullish signal for January and the upcoming year [6] - The "Santa Claus Rally" typically encompasses the last five trading sessions of December and the first two of January, with expectations for continued positive performance into 2026 [5][6] Technology Sector - Nvidia became the first company to surpass a market capitalization of $5 trillion, reflecting the significant spending by major technology players in the ongoing AI arms race [5] - Despite concerns regarding the AI bubble and valuations, elevated multiples are seen as correctly anticipating above-trend earnings growth and an AI capital expenditure boom [8] Precious Metals and Commodities - Gold and silver have reached historical highs, driven by a shift towards safety investments, while copper has also hit record levels due to supply chain disruptions and tariff policy uncertainties [4]

US-China AI Race - The US is structurally positioned to lose the AI arms race due to China's advantage in power generation development [2] - China's power generation development is accelerating, while US transmission grid development is decelerating due to permitting issues [2] - The US is investing capital into a race it is structurally positioned to lose [2] Technology and Innovation - Nvidia's development roadmap is essentially a power consumption roadmap, focusing on powering and cooling bigger silicon [1] - Efficiency gains cannot keep up with compute install, leading to climbing power needs [1] - The US needs to innovate with AI-tuned ASICs instead of relying on power-hungry chips [3] Market and Competition - Nvidia has a strong hold on development through investments and agreements with US AI companies and startups [3] - The DOJ Antitrust is investigating Nvidia, but intervention is uncertain [3] - The market needs to realize that LLMs may not be the path to AGI or ASI [3]

AI Regulation & Policy - The White House AI and Cryptosar highlights the necessity of a single national or federal framework for AI regulation to avoid a confusing patchwork of state regulations that could hinder innovation and compliance, especially for small startups [2][3] - The EO aims to work with Congress to enact a federal framework for AI regulation, providing principles and tools to push back on excessive state regulations, while acknowledging the need for congressional legislation [5][6] - The administration's policy on chip exports is to allow the export of lagging chips but not leading-edge chips, with the H200 chip considered a previous generation chip acceptable for sale to China [9][10] AI Competition & Economic Impact - The US is in an AI race with China, not just in weapons but also in economics, as AI is expected to power the economies of the 21st century [7] - While the US is ahead in most AI categories, it lags in optimism, with only 39% of people in the US optimistic about AI compared to 83% in China [8] - Current data indicates job creation rather than job disruption due to AI, with a construction and energy boom, wage increases of 30% for construction jobs, and AI contributing to half of the 4% GDP growth [13] Semiconductor Independence - China aims to achieve semiconductor independence, which may explain why they are currently not taking US chips [10][11]

AI Investment & Market Perspective - ASML CEO describes artificial intelligence investing as resembling an "arms race" [1] - The CEO sees no bubble in the AI industry [1] - The AI boom is raising questions about whether current spending levels are justified [1] ASML's Role in the AI Supply Chain - ASML is a crucial component in the global AI supply chain [1] - ASML holds a near-monopoly on extreme ultraviolet lithography machines [1] - These machines are essential for manufacturing advanced chips [1]

Core Insights - Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, announced a significant advancement to the CUDA platform with the introduction of CUDA Tile, marking the most substantial update in two decades [1] - The new tile-based programming model allows programmers to work with "tiles" of data, automating workload distribution, which simplifies GPU development [2] Impact on Nvidia's Competitive Position - The update strengthens Nvidia's competitive advantage, as CUDA serves as the software layer that enhances the performance of Nvidia's hardware [3] - Despite competitors like AMD and Intel offering similar hardware at lower prices, Nvidia's CUDA platform remains a key differentiator, making it difficult for customers to switch to alternative solutions [4] - Nvidia controls approximately 95% of the AI-accelerator market, and the new update further solidifies this dominance by complicating the migration process for customers [5] Financial Implications - While Wall Street typically focuses on financial statements, the update could positively influence NVDA stock if it leads to improved quarterly results [6] - The introduction of CUDA Tile is expected to reduce customer churn and create additional barriers for competitors, reinforcing Nvidia's market position [6] Broader Industry Context - Although the update may not be as attention-grabbing as a new GPU announcement, it enhances Nvidia's standing in the AI sector and increases the efficiency of older GPUs through software improvements [7]

Market Trends - The report indicates an AI arms race among the world's 10 richest people as of December 2025 [1] Key Individuals - The report provides a link to a list of the top richest people in the world [1]

Market Trends - The world's 10 richest people are engaged in an AI arms race as of the end of 2025 [1] Key Observation - The report identifies the top richest people in the world heading into December 2025 [1]