Smuggling AI servers into China didn’t change the downward trend in Super Micro’s gross marginExcerpt:"...servers sold for $510 million between late April 2025 and mid-May 2025..."Full article:https://t.co/jFjc4ZzU7zAt least ~10% of Super Micro’s 2Q CY2025 revenue was tied to servers reportedly smuggled into China. In theory, these should carry much higher margins, but gross margin still declined sharply to 9.6% (vs. 11.3% in 2Q CY2024).Two possibilities:1. Margins in the legitimate business are simply too ...

Super Micro having one of its worst days on record as employees are charged with smuggling chips into China. Christina Partnas is here with the story. It's a wild one, Christina.>> Yes. Involving dummy servers, a hair dryer, and billions of dollars in Nvidia chips headed to China. That is the alleged scheme federal prosecutors just laid out last night charging three people tied to server maker Super Micro, including co-founder and board member Wally Lea with conspiring to illegally divert AI servers to Chin ...

Supply chain check update: Nvidia and WUS Printed Circuit have begun testing next-gen CCL material M10, which could trigger the next upgrade cycle in PCB materials for future AI servers. Key points:1. The program suggests WUS has an early lead in PCB development for Nvidia’s next-gen rack Kyber and the new Rubin Ultra / Feynman platforms. This could support the company’s future growth momentum.2. Sampling began in 1Q26, with preliminary test results expected in 2Q26.3. M10's target applications include orth ...

Welcome back. Take a look at shares of HPE off session lows after reporting fiscal Q1 earnings, revenue coming in lower than expected, but reporting a beat on the bottom line and raising guidance for the year ahead. Also pointing to doubledigit memory cost inflation in 2026.Joining us now first on CNBC, HPE CEO Antonio Ner. Welcome back. Good to have you.>> Good morning, S. >> Good morning. So there's a lot to get to in including some of your strategy here, but just overall in the environment.What what with ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes on Japan Electronic Components/Semiconductors Industry Overview - The discussions focused on the semiconductor industry in Japan, particularly companies such as Murata, Renesas, and Nidec - Investor sentiment is increasingly cautious regarding production constraints for smartphones and PCs due to memory shortages - There is a growing interest in stocks with low exposure to smartphone sales, with potential for re-rating in 2026, such as Renesas and Nidec [1][2] Company-Specific Insights Murata Manufacturing (Buy, on CL) - Even with a potential year-over-year decline in smartphone/PC volumes (e.g., -5% to -10%), the MLCC supply/demand balance and earnings outlook are expected to remain stable due to increased sales of AI server products and the weak yen [2] - Murata has significant exposure to North American smartphones and is expected to benefit from higher content per device and market share recovery [2] - Price stabilization in MLCC is anticipated to drive earnings upside, more so than volume changes [2] - No signs of excess customer inventories suggest that a decline in demand will not lead to inventory corrections [2] - Any temporary negative earnings impact from smartphones/PCs is expected to be quickly priced into the stock, with share price weakness viewed as a buying opportunity [2] Renesas Electronics (Buy) - Interest in Renesas is growing amid uncertainty in smartphone-related stocks, with a small downside risk for its automotive business due to already low inventory levels [3][7] - The infrastructure business, particularly for data centers and AI servers, is expected to be a stronger growth driver than market expectations [7] - Investors are cautiously optimistic about the stock's valuation improving, despite concerns about management comments potentially dampening expectations [7] Nidec (Buy) - There are rising expectations for improvements in governance and interest in whether the share price has bottomed out [8] - Investor interest is increasing regarding the company's underlying earning power after normalization [8] - Discussions are ongoing about potential future risks and a normalization scenario for Nidec [8] Feedback on Other Companies - **Ibiden (Buy)**: Recent share price rally is seen as premature, but positive earnings improvement is expected from major CPU customers [10] - **TDK (Buy)**: Investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach due to production cuts for Chinese smartphones, but valuation is becoming more attractive [11] - **Nitto Denko (Buy)**: Concerns about falling demand for smartphones and PCs are prevalent, despite expectations for share buybacks and a new medium-term plan [12] - **Kyocera (Buy)**: Investor interest in the upcoming medium-term plan is noted, but no drastic changes in earnings or share price expectations are anticipated [14] - **MinebeaMitsumi (Buy)**: Earnings outlook is expected to align with forecasts, with a favorable risk-return profile noted [15] - **Rohm (Neutral)**: Positive sentiment exists due to management comments and expectations for market recovery, but restructuring discussions are not a major focus [16] - **Alps Alpine (Neutral)**: Discussions about potential buying opportunities are emerging, contingent on strong FY3/27 earnings guidance [17] General Investor Concerns - Investors are generally concerned about rising input costs, including higher prices for precious metals and materials, and companies' abilities to pass on these costs [18] Conclusion - The semiconductor industry in Japan is facing cautious investor sentiment due to production constraints and memory shortages, with a shift in focus towards companies with lower exposure to smartphone sales - Key companies like Murata, Renesas, and Nidec are viewed positively, with expectations for stable earnings and potential growth drivers in AI and infrastructure sectors - Broader concerns about input costs and market conditions are influencing investor strategies across the sector

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Specialty Chemicals and Semiconductor Materials - **Key Focus**: Copper Clad Laminate (CCL) for AI servers, semiconductor package substrates, and advanced copper foil products Company Insights Mitsui Kinzoku - **Market Position**: Dominant in advanced copper foil products with a 98% global market share in MicroThin™ and 60% in VSP™ for AI servers [12][105] - **Growth Forecast**: Expected top-line growth for VSP™ at a CAGR of +80% from FY3/25 to FY3/28, driven by volume growth, improved product mix, and price hikes [13][103] - **Operating Profit Growth**: Forecasted CAGR of +43% for the copper foil business, contributing to overall company operating profit growth of +25% [14][16] - **Valuation**: Stock rated as Buy with a P/E of 14x on FY3/27 estimates, indicating strong undervaluation [16] Nittobo - **Market Share**: Holds approximately 90% global market share in low thermal expansion glass cloth for semiconductor package substrates [3] - **Profit Growth**: Forecasted overall company operating profit growth at a CAGR of +22% from FY3/25 to FY3/28 [3] - **Valuation**: Rated Neutral due to P/E of 18x on FY3/27 estimates, which reflects expected profit growth [3] Resonac - **Market Position**: Largest manufacturer of back-end semiconductor materials, covering 60%-70% of back-end materials [4] - **Profit Growth**: Expected core operating profit growth at a CAGR of +27% from FY12/24 to FY12/27, with overall company core operating profit growth of +21% [9] - **Valuation**: Stock rated as Buy, with potential for eliminating conglomerate discount through restructuring [9] Key Market Trends - **CCL Market Growth**: Anticipated to grow at a CAGR of +179% from 2025 to 2027, driven by advancements in AI server technology [1] - **Demand Drivers**: Significant demand for high-end AI servers, with expectations for GPU and ASIC servers to grow by +118% and +168% respectively in 2026 [80] - **Technological Advancements**: Introduction of multilayer PCBs with 30+ layers and M9+ CCL expected to expand significantly by 2027 [13][81] Financial Projections - **Mitsui Kinzoku**: - FY3/26 operating profits estimated at ¥87.3 billion (+17% YoY) [29] - FY3/27 operating profits projected at ¥114.6 billion (+31% YoY) [30] - **Nittobo**: Operating profit growth forecasted at +22% CAGR from FY3/25 to FY3/28 [3] - **Resonac**: Core operating profit growth expected at +27% CAGR from FY12/24 to FY12/27 [9] Additional Insights - **Technological Edge**: Mitsui Kinzoku's VSP™ series achieves a high level of surface smoothness, crucial for high-frequency applications, making it a key material for next-generation communication infrastructure [51][53] - **Production Capacity Expansion**: Mitsui Kinzoku plans to increase VSP™ production capacity to 1,200 tons/month by September 2028 to meet rising demand [92] - **Market Dynamics**: Competitors are exploring alternative sources to mitigate dependence on Mitsui Kinzoku, but the company maintains a strong competitive edge due to its technological capabilities and established market presence [73][74] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the competitive landscape, growth forecasts, and financial projections for the companies involved in the specialty chemicals and semiconductor materials industry.

Regarding recent discussions among CCL-focused investors on whether the key CCL spec for VR200 NVL72 could be downgraded from M9, below are my latest surveys and views:1. Nvidia previously began testing 896K2 and 892K2 and prototyping PCBs, which likely gave rise to the market rumors. Test results are expected by the end of 1Q26.2.Nvidia’s current mass-production target remains 896K3. While this has not been finalized, the uncertainty alone is sufficient to impact stock prices that have already priced in th ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Yidun Electronics (603328.SH) has limited PCB products applied in the industrial robot sector and has not yet ventured into low-orbit satellites or AI server fields [1] Group 2 - The company is currently focused on specific applications of its PCB products, primarily in areas other than low-orbit satellites and AI servers [1] - There is a clear indication that the company is not involved in emerging technology sectors such as AI and satellite communications at this time [1]

Summary of Innolight (300308.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Innolight (300308.SZ) - **Industry**: Optical modules and silicon photonics Key Points Growth Drivers - **Specification Upgrade**: Transition towards 800G and 1.6T is expected to enhance the company's average selling price (ASP) and gross margin (GM) [1][2] - **AI Server Demand**: Anticipated ramp-up in AI server shipments, particularly ASIC AI servers, will increase the need for optical modules, outpacing traditional GPU requirements [1][2] - **Technology Transition**: Shift from EML to SiPh optical modules is projected to improve gross margins due to lower costs associated with SiPh technology [1][2] Market Demand - **End Market Demand**: Positive outlook on end market demand driven by the increase in AI server shipments, with expectations of growth from 19,000 racks in 2025 to between 50,000 and 67,000 racks in 2026 [2] - **Chipset Diversification**: The diversification of chipset platforms in AI servers, especially in the second half of 2026, is expected to further support demand for optical modules [2] Supply Chain Dynamics - **Improved Supply**: Anticipation of better supply conditions in the coming years due to foundries expanding silicon photonics chip capacity and normalization of InP substrate supply from mainland China [3] - **Revenue Recovery**: Monthly revenues for InP epiwafer and CW laser suppliers, LandMark and VPEC, are showing gradual recovery, indicating easing impacts from export controls [3] New Opportunities - **NPO (On-board Optics)**: Concerns regarding Innolight's value addition in NPO are addressed, emphasizing that pricing is still driven by speed and that competition is healthy due to the need for PIC design capabilities [4] Financial Projections - **Price Target**: The 12-month price target is set at Rmb762, based on a P/E ratio of 31x for the period of 2H26-1H27E [8] - **Market Capitalization**: Estimated market cap is Rmb690.8 billion ($97.7 billion) with projected revenues increasing from Rmb23.86 billion in 2024 to Rmb94.13 billion by 2027 [9] Risks - **Key Risks**: Potential risks include slower-than-expected demand for 800G and 1.6T products, margin instability, geopolitical risks, and supply chain constraints [8] Financial Metrics - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenue growth from Rmb23.86 billion in 2024 to Rmb94.13 billion in 2027, with EBITDA expected to rise from Rmb6.54 billion to Rmb36.93 billion in the same period [9] Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: Maintain a "Buy" rating with a target price reflecting a potential upside of 23.7% from the current price of Rmb616 [9]

Summary of SICC (688234.SS) 3Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: SICC (688234.SS) - **Industry**: Silicon Carbide (SiC) Substrate Manufacturing Key Financial Metrics - **3Q25 Revenues**: Rmb 318 million, down 18% QoQ and 14% YoY, significantly below expectations by 37% compared to Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg consensus [2][3] - **Gross Margin (GM)**: Improved to 20.6% in 3Q25 from 12.6% in 2Q25, reflecting a product mix upgrade towards 8-inch SiC substrates [1][2] - **Operating Income (OP)**: Reported a loss of Rmb 42 million in 3Q25, compared to a loss of Rmb 28 million in 2Q25 [3] - **Net Income**: Loss of Rmb 10 million in 3Q25, down from a profit of Rmb 2 million in 2Q25 [3] Core Insights - **Product Mix Upgrade**: The shift towards 8-inch and 12-inch SiC substrates is expected to drive future growth [1][5] - **Market Competition**: Intense pricing competition, particularly in the 6-inch SiC substrate market in mainland China, is impacting revenue and margins [2][5] - **R&D Investments**: Increased R&D and selling expenses due to new product developments have contributed to the operating loss [2][5] - **Future Growth Drivers**: Anticipated growth in SiC adoption in electric vehicles (EVs) for fast charging capabilities and expansion into AI applications such as AI glasses and servers [1][5] Earnings Revision - **EPS Forecast**: 2025-2027 EPS estimates reduced by 86%, 9%, and 7% respectively due to lower revenues and higher expenses [5][10] - **Revenue Growth Projection**: Despite the cuts, a strong revenue growth of 65% CAGR is expected from 2025 to 2027, driven by product mix upgrades and market expansion [5][10] - **Long-term Margin Recovery**: Blended GM is projected to recover to 37.6% by 2027, with an operating margin (OPM) of 24.9% expected as revenue scales normalize [5][10] Valuation and Price Target - **Target Price**: Rmb 101, reflecting a 36.7% upside from the current price of Rmb 73.86 [17] - **Valuation Methodology**: Based on a discounted P/E approach, with a target P/E multiple of 35.8x applied to 2029E EPS [10][15] Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks**: Include slower-than-expected capacity expansion, intense competition, and potential supply chain issues [16] - **Market Volatility**: The company's relatively short trading history and the volatile nature of the SiC substrate market may affect valuation [16] Conclusion - Despite a challenging 3Q25 performance, SICC is positioned for long-term growth driven by product upgrades and market expansion in the EV and AI sectors. The current valuation presents a potential investment opportunity, albeit with associated risks from market competition and operational challenges.