All right, my next guest says this market's been bedubbled by rotation of fear. I mean, you kind of know these, right. Geopolitical, private, client, equity, credit equity, and of course, AI spending.I want to bring in Slaystone, their chief equity strategist, Aaron Gibbs. And you know, Aaron, I want to go over all of them with you, um, one at a time, but I do want to ask, can you can you rank them. Like, of the three, which one is the most, >> you know, which one has the most depth that you know, that that ...

Group 1: Energy Market Dynamics - Crude and natural gas prices have eased from the $120 per barrel mark following President Trump's comments suggesting a potential resolution to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran [1][11] - Iran has stated it will continue its oil blockade, prompting Trump to promise stronger military retaliation, which may keep shipping costs elevated [2][11] - Energy producers in the Middle East have not yet resumed full-scale production, contributing to ongoing market volatility [2][11] Group 2: Stock Market Reactions - Lower energy prices have provided relief to travel stocks, with airlines American and Delta gaining over 1% in premarket trading, while cruise companies Carnival and Royal Caribbean saw marginal increases [3][11] - Energy companies like Occidental experienced a 2.5% loss, while ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil were slightly lower [3][11] - Global markets, including equities in Asia and Europe, rallied, with Wall Street's fear gauge, the CBOE's volatility index, dropping to 23.31 [7][12] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Forecasts - Concerns about stagflation have arisen due to surging crude prices, complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts, especially as labor market data suggests weakening [6][11] - Traders are anticipating a potential 25 basis point rate cut around September, reflecting market sentiment [7][11] - Two inflation reports are expected later this week, which will be closely analyzed for their implications on inflation trends prior to the Middle East conflict [8][12] Group 4: Technology Sector Performance - Technology stocks have rebounded, making them the best-performing sector on the S&P 500 this month with a 1.4% gain [8][12] - Chip companies like Nvidia and SanDisk saw gains of 0.4% and over 2.3%, respectively, while Hewlett Packard Enterprise rose by 2.9% after forecasting revenue above estimates [9][12] - Focus is shifting to Oracle's upcoming results, with traders looking for signs of debt-fueled AI spending [9][12] Group 5: Cryptocurrency Market Trends - A risk-on mood is reflected in the cryptocurrency market, with stocks like Strategy and Coinbase rising by 3%, tracking a 2.7% increase in Bitcoin [10][12]

February 20, 2026 07:55 PM GMT U.S. Economics | North America Conventional wisdom suggests the US economy did not slow in 2025. Headline GDP data seem to confirm this view, with growth in 2025 about unchanged from 2024. However, we believe exceptionally high volatility in trade and inventory data clouded readings on headline GDP growth in 2025. Final sales to domestic purchasers – GDP less trade and inventories – slowed from 3.0% in 2024 to 1.9% in 2025, led by softer household and government spending. That ...

Core Viewpoint - The Supreme Court's decision to invalidate the Trump administration's tariffs represents a significant legal change rather than a shift in policy according to Wells Fargo [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Commentary on GDP trends indicates ongoing economic fluctuations that may impact investment strategies [1] - Insights into AI spending suggest a growing trend in technology investments, which could present new opportunities for investors [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - Analysis of Federal Reserve policy highlights potential implications for interest rates and market liquidity, affecting overall investment climate [1] Group 3: Investment Holdings - Berkshire Hathaway's holdings are under review, with potential implications for market movements and investment strategies [1]

Group 1: Investment Activity - Citadel, led by Ken Griffin, has significantly increased its investment in Amazon, adding approximately $2.52 billion, bringing its total position to over $3.2 billion [1] - Citadel has also doubled its stake in Nvidia, now valued at nearly $4 billion, indicating a strong interest in AI-related investments [1] - Other notable investors, such as Ray Dalio's Bridgewater, have also increased their positions in Nvidia, with a $253 million investment, raising their total stake to nearly $721 million [3] Group 2: Market Performance - Amazon's stock has experienced volatility, down 11.3% year-to-date and over 14% in the past month, largely due to its aggressive $200 billion capital spending plan related to AI [2] - Despite investor concerns regarding AI, Amazon's fundamentals remain strong, supported by a healthy AI-powered backlog and robust cloud sales [2] Group 3: Citadel's Portfolio Overview - Citadel's latest 13F filing shows a market value increase to $0.67 trillion, with inflows of +0.52% as a percentage of total market value [6] - The fund made new purchases in 2,088 stocks, added to 5,010 stocks, and sold out of 2,204 stocks, while reducing holdings in 5,384 stocks [6] - The concentration of the top 10 holdings is at 22.8%, with a turnover rate of 29.2% [6]

Economic Overview - The UK unemployment rate has risen to 5.2%, the highest level in nearly five years, indicating a potential upward trend in joblessness [14] - Average weekly earnings growth has decreased to 4.2%, down from 4.6% in November, which is below market expectations [14] - The jobs market is showing signs of distress, with private sector wages not keeping pace with inflation for the first time in two and a half years [1][2] Labor Market Insights - The single month jobless rate is currently at 5.4%, with expectations that it could climb higher as redundancies are anticipated [2] - The number of payrolled employees fell by 11,000 month-to-month in January, following a drop of 6,000 in December, which was better than the consensus forecast of a 20,000 decline [15] - Youth unemployment has reached a new high of 16.1%, highlighting ongoing challenges in the labor market [3] Company Performance - Antofagasta reported a 53% increase in pre-tax profits, with earnings per share more than doubling, driven by higher copper prices and disciplined cost control [3] - The final dividend declared by Antofagasta was 48 cents, lower than the consensus estimate of 56.5 cents, while revenue of $8.6 billion was in line with forecasts [4] - InterContinental Hotels announced a 10% increase in its dividend and a $950 million share buyback following a year of record hotel openings [9] Market Reactions - The FTSE 100 opened higher, gaining 39 points, with companies previously affected by the 'AI scare trade' leading the way [7] - Miners, including Antofagasta and Fresnillo, were among the main fallers as copper and precious metals prices declined [8] - The pound has weakened by 0.5% against the dollar, influenced by rising unemployment and softer wage growth, which have increased the likelihood of a Bank of England rate cut [12]

Economic Data Insights - The January employment report on Wednesday at 8:30am will analyze nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings to assess labor market conditions and their impact on Fed policy [1][3] - The mid-week timing of the employment report creates unique dynamics, compressing the time for market adjustments before Friday's CPI release [3] Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - December retail sales data on Tuesday at 8:30am will provide insights into holiday shopping performance and consumer spending trends as 2026 begins [2][4] - The report will help determine if strong labor markets are translating into sustained consumer spending or if households are retrenching due to inflation pressures [4] Technology Sector Analysis - Earnings from Cisco (CSCO) on Wednesday and Arista Networks (ANET) on Thursday will provide insights into enterprise networking demand and data center investment amid questions about AI spending sustainability [5] - Cisco's results will focus on corporate IT budgets and cybersecurity product adoption, while Arista's earnings will assess trends in hyperscaler capital expenditures [5] Digital Platforms and Financial Technology - Earnings from Robinhood (HOOD) on Tuesday will provide insights into retail trading activity and cryptocurrency transaction volumes [6] - Results from Shopify (SHOP) and AppLovin (APP) will test the health of e-commerce platforms and mobile gaming advertising, respectively [7] Inflation and Market Reactions - The January CPI report on Friday at 8:30am will be critical for assessing inflation trends, particularly in energy prices, housing costs, and services inflation [8] - The timing of the CPI report following the employment data could lead to significant market volatility, especially in rate-sensitive sectors [8]

Core Viewpoint - Big Tech companies have experienced a significant decline in market capitalization, losing over $1 trillion due to concerns over AI spending and capital expenditures [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet all saw their shares decline in the week leading up to Thursday's market close, driven by fears surrounding AI spending [1]. - Amazon's shares fell by 7% in premarket trading on Friday, while Alphabet decreased by 0.7%, and Meta remained largely unchanged; Oracle, Nvidia, and Microsoft saw slight increases in the low single-digit percentages [2]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Plans - Big Tech companies announced plans to invest $660 billion into AI this year, a figure that exceeds the GDP of several countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, and Israel [2]. Group 3: Industry Sentiment and Volatility - Companies developing hardware for AI are expected to face ongoing volatility as market sentiment shifts, with concerns about capital expenditures related to large language model (LLM) build-outs and the potential for over-expansion of capacity [3]. - Investment director Paul Markham highlighted that questions regarding the extent of capital expenditures and the eventual return on investment will persist in the industry [3].

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's Q4 earnings report is set to conclude a tech earnings season focused on the effectiveness of the industry's significant investments in AI [1] Group 1 - The tech industry is currently experiencing a spending surge on artificial intelligence, raising questions about the long-term value of these investments [1]

Economic Indicators - US weekly initial unemployment claims fell by 1,000 to 209,000, indicating a slightly weaker labor market than the expected 205,000, while continuing claims decreased by 38,000 to a 6-month low of 1.827 million, showing a stronger labor market than the expected 1.850 million [1] - US November factory orders rose by 2.7% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of 1.6% and marking the largest increase in 6 months [6] - The US November trade deficit widened to $56.8 billion, larger than the expected $44.0 billion and the largest deficit in 4 months [5] Stock Market Performance - Stock indexes mostly settled lower on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average falling to 1-week lows, influenced by concerns over AI spending and disappointing earnings from Microsoft [4] - The S&P 500 Index closed down by 0.13%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up by 0.11%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index closed down by 0.53% [5] - Meta Platforms saw a rally of more than 10% after providing a stronger-than-expected revenue outlook, contributing positively to the market [3][19] Company Earnings - 77% of the 143 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings thus far have beaten expectations, with S&P earnings growth expected to climb by 8.4% in Q4 [8] - Meta Platforms reported Q4 revenue of $59.89 billion, surpassing the consensus of $58.42 billion, and forecasted Q1 revenue between $53.5 billion and $56.5 billion, well above the consensus of $51.27 billion [19] - International Business Machines reported Q4 revenue of $19.69 billion, stronger than the consensus of $19.21 billion, contributing to its stock's rise of more than 5% [20] Sector Movements - Energy producers benefited from a more than 3% jump in WTI crude oil prices, reaching a 4.25-month high, following President Trump's comments on Iran [2] - Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks retreated as Bitcoin fell more than 5% to a 2.25-month low, impacting companies like MicroStrategy and Coinbase [15] - Companies like Honeywell International and C.H. Robinson Worldwide reported better-than-expected earnings, with Honeywell forecasting full-year adjusted EPS between $10.35 and $10.65, above the consensus of $10.41 [22]