Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see a revenue growth of approximately 11.55% in the current quarter, driven by cross-selling from flash sales and improvements in advertising efficiency due to AI [1][2] - Adjusted EBITA is projected to decline by 72.58% to 12.211 billion yuan, primarily due to losses from flash sales, which are estimated at around 35 billion yuan [1][2] E-commerce Group - Revenue growth for the e-commerce group is anticipated to be around 11.55%, with CMR growth at approximately 10.04%, continuing to outpace GMV growth [2] - The adjusted EBITA is expected to decrease by 72.58% to 12.211 billion yuan, largely impacted by flash sales investments [2] - Flash sales are projected to focus on increasing order volume in Q3 and reducing losses while expanding in-store business in Q4 [2] - The synergy from flash sales is expected to positively impact traditional e-commerce operations, potentially serving as an alternative for brand advertising [2] Cloud Intelligence Group - Revenue growth for the cloud intelligence group is expected to be around 30%, with an adjusted EBITA margin of approximately 9%, remaining stable year-on-year [3] - The company is actively advancing a 380 billion yuan AI infrastructure project and plans to increase investments to prepare for the ASI era [3] - By 2032, the energy consumption of Alibaba Cloud's global data centers is projected to increase tenfold compared to 2022, indicating a significant rise in computing power investments [3] - Collaborations with mobile manufacturers like Honor and Apple are anticipated to create new traffic entry points for the company's ecosystem [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue growth for FY2026 and FY2027 is projected at 3.30% and 11.11%, respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits expected to be 121.73 billion yuan and 162.61 billion yuan [4] - The estimated valuation for the e-commerce group and cloud intelligence group per ADS is 145.67 USD and 71.04 USD, respectively, with a target price of 216.72 USD per ADS [4]

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: CITIC Securities has given Alibaba Group (09988) a "Buy" rating, forecasting revenue growth rates of 3.30% and 11.11% for FY2026 and FY2027 respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits of 121.73 billion yuan and 162.61 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -23.02% and 33.58% [1] - Valuation method: The company employs a segmented valuation approach, estimating the value per ADS for the China e-commerce group and the Cloud Intelligence group at $145.67 and $71.04 respectively, leading to a target price of $216.72 per ADS, equivalent to HKD 210.76 per share [1] Group 2 - FY2Q2026 outlook for China e-commerce group: Revenue growth is expected to be around 11.55%, with CMR growth at approximately 10.04%, driven by cross-selling from flash sales and improved advertising efficiency due to AI [2] - Profit expectations: Adjusted EBITA is projected to decline by 72.58% to 12.21 billion yuan, primarily due to investments in flash sales, which are expected to incur losses of about 35 billion yuan; however, excluding flash sales, the e-commerce business's EBITA is expected to show positive year-on-year growth [2] - Cloud Intelligence group outlook: Revenue growth is anticipated to be around 30%, with an adjusted EBITA margin of approximately 9%, remaining stable year-on-year; capital expenditures are expected to remain high as Alibaba actively advances its 380 billion yuan AI infrastructure development [2] - Future capacity growth: By 2032, the energy consumption of Alibaba Cloud's global data centers is projected to increase tenfold compared to 2022, indicating an exponential rise in computing power investments [2]

Core Insights - Alibaba Group's CEO, Wu Yongming, announced at the Yunqi Conference that the energy consumption of Alibaba Cloud's global data centers is expected to increase tenfold by 2032 compared to 2022, marking a significant shift in the company's cloud computing strategy as it prepares for the ASI era [1] Group 1 - The announcement highlights the anticipated exponential growth in computing power investment by Alibaba Cloud [1] - The year 2022 is referred to as the "GenAI" year, indicating a pivotal moment for generative AI technologies [1]

Core Insights - Alibaba Group's CEO, Wu Yongming, announced at the Yunqi Conference that the energy consumption of Alibaba Cloud's global data centers is expected to increase tenfold by 2032, compared to 2022, marking a significant investment in computing power as the company prepares for the ASI era [1] Group 1 - The announcement highlights the anticipated exponential growth in computing power investment by Alibaba Cloud [1] - The reference to 2022 as the "year of GenAI" indicates a pivotal moment for the industry, setting the stage for future developments [1] - The projection of a tenfold increase in energy consumption underscores the scale of Alibaba Cloud's expansion plans [1]

Core Insights - Alibaba Group's CEO, Wu Yongming, announced at the Cloud Summit that the energy consumption of Alibaba Cloud's global data centers is expected to increase tenfold by 2032, compared to 2022, marking a significant shift in the era of Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) [1] Group 1 - The year 2022 is identified as the "GenAI" milestone year, indicating a pivotal moment in the development of generative AI technologies [1] - The anticipated increase in energy consumption suggests that Alibaba Cloud's computational power investment will grow exponentially [1]