消息面上，1月9日，国务院反垄断反不正当竞争委员会办公室宣布，对外卖平台服务行业市场竞争状况 开展调查、评估。美团方面表示，坚决拥护国家开展外卖市场竞争调查评估。近一段时间以来，外卖市 场"拼价格、拼补贴、控流量"等非理性竞争问题突出。美团多次呼吁行业回归理性，坚决反对"内卷 式"竞争。 财通证券（601108）此前指，美团作为国内领先的本地商业平台，核心业务涵盖餐饮外卖、闪购及到店 酒旅业务，并积极开发小象超市、快驴等新业务以及拓展海外市场。整体来看，宏观经济是最大的贝 塔，下游服务业相较商品零售更高的增速和相对更强的可选属性决定平台成长性及弹性亦更大；线上化 率提升的背景下，外卖相对刚性、构筑稳健基本盘，到店及闪购业务加速渗透带来高成长。 美团-W(03690)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.57%，报102.9港元，成交额24.33亿港元。 ...

财通证券此前指，美团作为国内领先的本地商业平台，核心业务涵盖餐饮外卖、闪购及到店酒旅业务， 并积极开发小象超市、快驴等新业务以及拓展海外市场。整体来看，宏观经济是最大的贝塔，下游服务 业相较商品零售更高的增速和相对更强的可选属性决定平台成长性及弹性亦更大；线上化率提升的背景 下，外卖相对刚性、构筑稳健基本盘，到店及闪购业务加速渗透带来高成长。 智通财经APP获悉，美团-W(03690)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.57%，报102.9港元，成交额24.33亿港元。 消息面上，1月9日，国务院反垄断反不正当竞争委员会办公室宣布，对外卖平台服务行业市场竞争状况 开展调查、评估。美团方面表示，坚决拥护国家开展外卖市场竞争调查评估。近一段时间以来，外卖市 场"拼价格、拼补贴、控流量"等非理性竞争问题突出。美团多次呼吁行业回归理性，坚决反对"内卷 式"竞争。 ...

这场"烧钱游戏"的代价在不久前披露的三季度财报中已被赤裸裸地揭示：仅单季度，美团、阿里、京东三家的销售和市场费用 就激增了614亿元，美团核心本地商业板块经营利润断崖式转负，亏损约141亿元。 然而，就在这场淘金者们不惜以巨额亏损换取市场份额的血战中，一位置身事外的"卖铲人"却悄然完成了利润翻倍的逆袭，坐 收渔翁之利：顺丰同城半年报成绩单显示，2025 年上半年经调整净利润实现 1.6 亿元，同比增长高达139%，已超过了该公司 2024年全年的利润额。而且这样的趋势在今年下半年依然持续。 在艾媒咨询CEO张毅看来，无论对于哪一家参与者，即时零售赛道若能实现更高的效率提升、创新业态的呈现，并切实发挥促 进经济发展与激发消费潜力的作用，那么从宏观发展大局来看，即时零售行业依旧符合正常的发展逻辑，但无序竞争也会逐步 规范与调整。 南方财经记者朱治宣 林曦 实习生钟宸 广州报道 刚刚过去的"双十二"，即时零售战场上的硝烟味依然浓烈。 打开京东、淘宝和美团的APP，映入眼帘的依然是铺天盖地的无门槛券、大额神券与百亿补贴弹窗。尽管美团CEO王兴曾在三 季度业绩报告电话会上表示，"半年来的市场结果已经充分证明，外卖价格战 ...

Core Viewpoint - Meituan-W (03690) is recognized as a leading local business platform in China, with solid long-term barriers and a focus on exploring new business increments, leading to an "overweight" rating by Caitong Securities [1] Group 1: Business Overview - Meituan operates in key sectors including food delivery, flash purchase, and in-store travel services, while actively developing new businesses such as Xiaoxiang Supermarket and Kuailu, as well as expanding into overseas markets [2] - The macroeconomic environment is identified as the largest beta factor, with the service industry expected to grow faster than retail goods, enhancing the platform's growth potential and resilience [2] Group 2: International Expansion - The overseas expansion of the food delivery business has shown positive progress in regions like Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, with Keeta's Hong Kong operations becoming profitable in October this year and significant quarter-on-quarter growth in user engagement metrics expected by Q3 2025 [3] - The internationalization strategy, although initiated later, is anticipated to significantly broaden the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for the company, creating structural flexibility for future profit growth [3] Group 3: Financial Projections - Caitong Securities forecasts Meituan's revenue to reach 366.2 billion, 417.4 billion, and 468.9 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - Meituan-W (03690) is recognized as a leading local business platform in China, with solid long-term barriers despite short-term competitive disturbances, focusing on exploring new business increments [1] Group 1: Business Overview - Meituan operates in key sectors including food delivery, instant retail, and in-store travel services, while actively developing new businesses such as Xiaoxiang Supermarket and Kuailu [1] - The macroeconomic environment serves as the largest beta factor, with the service industry showing higher growth rates compared to retail goods, indicating greater growth potential and resilience for the platform [1] - The increasing online penetration rate supports the stability of the food delivery segment, while the rapid penetration of in-store and instant retail services contributes to high growth [1] Group 2: International Expansion - The food delivery business is accelerating its expansion into overseas markets, achieving positive progress in regions such as Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, with Keeta's Hong Kong operations already profitable as of October this year [2] - The quarterly user engagement (UE) metrics for Q3 2025 show significant growth, and the company plans to continue expanding into the Middle East and Latin America [2] - Although Meituan's internationalization strategy started later, its long-term strategic perspective is expected to significantly broaden the company's Total Addressable Market (TAM) and create structural flexibility for future profit growth [2]

Core Insights - Meituan is a leading local commerce platform in China, focusing on food delivery, flash purchase, and in-store travel services, while actively exploring new business opportunities and expanding into overseas markets [1][2] - The macroeconomic environment is a significant beta factor, with the service industry showing higher growth rates compared to retail, indicating greater growth potential and resilience for the platform [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, core local commerce revenue was 67.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, primarily due to increased subsidies leading to a significant decline in delivery service revenue [2] - The operating loss for core local commerce in Q3 2025 was 14.1 billion yuan, with expectations of continued losses in Q4 2025, although the loss margin is anticipated to narrow sequentially [2] Competitive Landscape - Meituan's core advantage lies in its long-term business barriers rather than short-term subsidy investments, with significant operational efficiency in its food delivery business [2] - As industry competition becomes more rational, Meituan is expected to enter a profit recovery phase following a reduction in subsidies [2] International Expansion - The company is accelerating its overseas market expansion, achieving positive progress in regions like Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, with Keeta's Hong Kong operations becoming profitable in October 2025 [2] - The international strategy, although initiated later, is expected to significantly broaden the company's Total Addressable Market (TAM) and create structural flexibility for future profit growth [2] Investment Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 366.2 billion, 417.4 billion, and 468.9 billion yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of -17.4 billion, 17.1 billion, and 40.3 billion yuan [2] - Meituan is positioned as a leading player in local commerce with solid long-term barriers, and despite short-term competitive disturbances, the long-term value remains unchanged, leading to an "overweight" rating [2]

Group 1 - UBS maintains a positive long-term outlook on Meituan due to its strong competitive moat, solid consumer mindshare, and differentiated supply-side innovations such as "Raccoon Kitchen" and "Flash Purchase" [1] - The overseas business initiative KeeTa is seen as a potential upward factor that has not yet been reflected in the stock price [1] - Morgan Stanley has increased its stake in Meituan by 9.0614 million shares, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [1] Group 2 - Meituan's Q3 2025 commentary highlights that subsidies have entered a deep-water phase, with high-priced orders becoming the focal point of competition [1] - UBS has assigned a "Buy" rating to Meituan with a target price of HKD 128 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 135.66 HKD, based on a reasonable valuation of 829.1 billion HKD [3][12]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing significant competition, leading to a focus on high-value orders and a prolonged period of losses. The report suggests that the worst phase of losses may have passed, but the ongoing competition will likely extend the duration of losses [9][12]. - The company's Q3 performance showed a substantial increase in order volume driven by subsidies, but this has negatively impacted average order value (AOV), resulting in a revenue decline of approximately 12% year-on-year [9]. - The report highlights that the company's market share in high-value orders (AOV above 15 HKD) is over two-thirds, indicating a strategic focus on maintaining this segment despite competitive pressures [9]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 276,745 million HKD - 2024: 337,592 million HKD - 2025: 366,600 million HKD - 2026: 406,302 million HKD - 2027: 462,787 million HKD - The year-on-year growth rates are expected to decline significantly, with 2025 showing only an 8.59% increase [4][16]. - The company is projected to incur losses in the coming years, with net profit estimates for 2025 at -19,633 million HKD and -25,640 million HKD for 2026 [4][16]. Segment Valuation - The report employs a segmented valuation approach, estimating the following for 2026: - Delivery and Flash Purchase: 2,097 billion CNY in revenue, valued at 4,516 billion HKD - In-store and Hotel Travel: 170 billion CNY in after-tax operating profit, valued at 2,437 billion HKD - New Business: 1,216 billion CNY in revenue, valued at 1,338 billion HKD - The total estimated market value for the company is 8,291 billion HKD [11][12].

Core Insights - Meituan's Q3 2025 financial results show a revenue of 95.49 billion, a 2.0% increase, but operating profit (OP) at -19.76 billion, a decline of 244.4%, and adjusted net profit at -16.01 billion, down 224.8% [1] - The intense competition in the food delivery sector has led to lower-than-expected revenue growth and profitability, although the company maintains a strong long-term outlook for its core domestic business and new growth opportunities overseas [1][3] Group 1: Food Delivery Business - In Q3, the food delivery segment experienced a peak in competition, resulting in revenue decline and significant operating losses, although the company outperformed competitors in high-value order market share [2] - The company anticipates a more rational competitive environment in Q4, with expectations of reduced growth rates in order volume and improved average losses per order [2] Group 2: New Business Developments - New business revenue reached 28.04 billion, a 15.9% increase, with an operating loss of 1.28 billion, showing a notable improvement in operating profit margin (OPM) [3] - The entry of Keeta into the Brazilian market is expected to increase losses in Q4 due to initial investment costs, despite improvements in profitability in existing markets like Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company’s Q3 performance was significantly impacted by competition in the food delivery sector, but it retains a competitive edge in high-value user engagement and operational efficiency [3] - Long-term growth potential remains strong, with a projected core local business GMV of approximately 2.7 trillion for 2025, leading to a target price of 141.9 HKD, maintaining a "strong buy" rating despite short-term disruptions [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) with a target price of HKD 141.90, while the current stock price is HKD 102.5 [3]. Core Insights - Meituan's Q3 2025 financial performance showed revenue of HKD 95.49 billion, a 2.0% increase year-on-year, but operating profit was negative at HKD -19.76 billion, a decline of 244.4%. Adjusted net profit was also negative at HKD -16.01 billion, down 224.8% [1][6]. - Despite the intense competition in the food delivery sector, Meituan's long-term business barriers and growth potential remain strong, with overseas operations providing new growth opportunities [1][6]. - The report highlights that the core local business segment generated revenue of HKD 67.45 billion, down 2.8%, while new business revenue was HKD 28.04 billion, up 15.9% [6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected main revenue for Meituan is expected to grow from HKD 276.85 billion in 2023 to HKD 482.81 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% [2][8]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to be negative at HKD -15.46 billion in 2025, but is expected to recover to HKD 45.63 billion by 2027 [2][8]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in the operating profit margin (OPM) for new businesses, which is expected to be -4.6% in Q3 2025, showing a reduction in losses [6]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Meituan maintains a leading market share in high-value orders despite the competitive pressures in the food delivery market, with expectations for a more rational competitive environment in Q4 [6]. - The report notes that the company is focusing on high-value users and orders, which positions it favorably against competitors [6]. - The performance of the flash purchase segment is projected to grow by approximately 30% in Q3 2025, although it still faces negative operating profit margins [6]. Shareholder Information - The total market capitalization of Meituan is HKD 626.4 billion, with major shareholders holding a 9.05% stake [3].