消息面上，阿里巴巴拟8月28日举行董事会会议，以批准截至2025年6月30日止三个月的未经审核业绩及 业绩公告等议案。公司将于8月29日公布业绩。交银国际此前下调1季度集团利润23%，利润端承压主要 因闪购加大投入。预计集团调整后EBITA同比下降15%至384亿元，对应利润率15.3%，同比下降约3个 百分点。天风证券（601162）表示，预计FY26Q1季度公司收入稳健增长，利润端或受闪购补贴影响。 本季度海外科技大厂资本支出超预期，该行认为AI需求依旧强劲，预计公司本季度云业务维持高增 速。 阿里巴巴-W(09988)跌超4%，截至发稿，跌4.03%，报116.6港元，成交额75.81亿港元。 ...

消息面上，阿里巴巴拟8月28日举行董事会会议，以批准截至2025年6月30日止三个月的未经审核业绩及 业绩公告等议案。公司将于8月29日公布业绩。交银国际此前下调1季度集团利润23%，利润端承压主要 因闪购加大投入。预计集团调整后EBITA同比下降15%至384亿元，对应利润率15.3%，同比下降约3个 百分点。天风证券表示，预计FY26Q1季度公司收入稳健增长，利润端或受闪购补贴影响。本季度海外 科技大厂资本支出超预期，该行认为AI需求依旧强劲，预计公司本季度云业务维持高增速。 智通财经APP获悉，阿里巴巴-W(09988)跌超4%，截至发稿，跌4.03%，报116.6港元，成交额75.81亿港 元。 ...

财报中最令投资者担忧的，是美团核心本地商业部门盈利能力的急剧恶化。 根据野村证券的报告，美团该部门第二季度的经营利润同比大跌76%，较市场预期低70%。摩根大通的 分析师Alex Yao在报告中措辞更为直接，指出该板块的实际营业利润比其预测低了约100亿元，这表 明"非理性竞争可能比市场预期激烈得多"。 美团最新交出的季度成绩单，证实了市场对其盈利能力承压的普遍担忧，但利润下滑的惊人幅度，仍然 超出了华尔街的预料。 美团公布的二季报显示，其非国际财务报告准则（Non-IFRS）下的经营利润同比骤降87%至18.4亿元人 民币，较彭博市场一致预期低了超过80%。尽管营收同比增长12%至918.4亿元，但这一数字同样未能达 到预期。 财报发布后，美团管理层在电话会议上释放了更为谨慎的信号，预警其包含外卖和到店业务的核心本地 商业（CLC）部门，在截至9月的第三季度可能录得"重大亏损"。这一预测与去年同期该部门高达146亿 元的盈利形成鲜明对比。 据追风交易台消息，摩根大通在快评美团业绩时表示，低于预期在意料之中，幅度在意料之外。二季度 美团对外卖和闪购的实际投资比其之前的预测多100亿元，这表明非理性竞争可能比市 ...

Core Viewpoint - Meituan reported a revenue of 91.84 billion yuan for Q2 2025, marking an 11.7% year-on-year growth, but adjusted net profit fell approximately 89% to 1.493 billion yuan, raising concerns about the sustainability of its revenue growth without profit increase [1][5] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q2 2025 reached 91.84 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.7% [1] - Adjusted net profit was about 1.493 billion yuan, showing a significant decline of 89% compared to the previous year [1] - The core local commerce segment generated revenue of 65.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.7% year-on-year increase [3] Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, Meituan's ADR opened significantly lower, dropping over 10% [1] - The market expressed concerns regarding the prolonged period of "increased revenue without increased profit" [1] Management Insights - Meituan's management indicated that they would continue to increase subsidies in Q3 to combat the intensifying price competition in the food delivery sector, predicting substantial losses in the core local business [2][5] - CEO Wang Xing emphasized the company's commitment to maintaining market position amidst fierce competition, focusing on quality supply, stable fulfillment, and reasonable pricing [3] Business Developments - The instant delivery segment saw peak daily orders exceeding 150 million in July, with an average delivery time of 34 minutes, indicating improved user engagement [3] - The flash purchase business experienced high growth, expanding its product categories and achieving a doubling of transaction volume for high-ticket items during the 618 shopping festival [4] - The hotel and travel sector showed a recovery with order volume increasing over 40% year-on-year, and the number of active merchants reaching a new high [4] New Initiatives - Meituan is advancing its "Internet + Bright Kitchen" model, with over 117,000 merchants having adopted the "Bright Kitchen Live" feature since February, aiming for over 200,000 by year-end [5] - The company has invested 6.3 billion yuan in R&D for the quarter, a 17.2% increase year-on-year, and has launched 64 drone delivery routes across multiple cities [5] Future Outlook - The management expressed confidence in the long-term growth potential of all business segments despite the current challenges, indicating that maintaining market share while rationalizing competition will be crucial for valuation recovery in the next two years [5]

Core Insights - The new consumption model of "instant retail" is reshaping the competitive landscape of the retail industry, expanding from food delivery to various categories including clothing, footwear, and consumer electronics [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of this year, China's online retail sales reached 74,295 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%. The physical goods online retail sales amounted to 61,191 billion yuan, growing by 6.0%, accounting for 24.9% of total social retail sales [1]. - A flash purchase platform reported that since June, mobile transaction volume has increased by over 300%, with smartwatches, tablets, and laptops seeing over 200% growth [3]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Over 50% of consumers born after 1995 prefer to receive their purchases on the same day or within half a day, while 7% expect delivery within 2 hours after placing an order [3]. - The demand for speed and instant gratification among the younger consumer demographic is rising, making "speed" a critical service demand that transcends the product itself [5]. Group 3: Business Opportunities - The integration of online digital stores with offline supply has significantly boosted sales for businesses, as exemplified by a 24-hour convenience store in Ningxia, which processes around 170 orders daily, exceeding 5,000 monthly [3]. - The compound annual growth rate for categories like fresh produce, pharmaceuticals, and flowers has reached 45% over the past three years, surpassing that of the food service sector [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing competition in the food delivery market, likening it to a war where companies are heavily investing to increase market share and order volume, with a focus on the strategic implications of this "war" for the industry as a whole [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The food delivery market is experiencing intense competition, with companies planning to invest over 50 billion yuan to increase daily order volume from 100 million to 250 million [1]. - The competition is characterized by aggressive subsidies and marketing strategies, leading to concerns about the sustainability of such practices and the potential for market bubbles [2][5]. - The profit margins in the food delivery industry are low, with total industry profits last year amounting to 30 billion yuan, significantly lower than the 600 billion yuan in e-commerce profits [5][6]. Group 2: Strategic Positioning - Meituan, as the market leader, emphasizes its operational efficiency and ability to provide subsidies at a lower cost, positioning itself as a rational player in an irrational market [2][6]. - Competitors like Alibaba and JD.com are portrayed as challengers willing to disrupt the existing market structure through aggressive capital investment and subsidies [7][8]. - The article suggests that the competition has evolved from a focus on food delivery to a broader battle for control over local life infrastructure, likening it to controlling a city's road network [8][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article posits that the current state of competition may lead to a "trench warfare" scenario, where the outcome depends on the efficiency of resource consumption rather than quick tactical victories [11][12]. - The potential for a ceasefire is contingent on the realization of unsustainable costs associated with continued competition, as companies face pressure from both internal and external factors [17][20]. - The concept of "sunk costs" plays a significant role in the decision-making of companies, making it difficult for them to withdraw from the competition without acknowledging previous investments as losses [18][21].

Core Viewpoint - The current competition among major platforms in the instant retail sector should not be viewed solely through the lens of "low price = internal competition," but rather as a market-driven approach that promotes consumption and stimulates domestic demand [1][9]. Group 1: Instant Retail Market Dynamics - On July 14, Taobao Flash Sale and Ele.me announced their daily order volume surpassed 80 million, while Meituan reported 150 million orders, and JD.com announced over 25 million orders, bringing the total daily orders in this sector to approximately 250 million [2]. - The ongoing debate about whether this instant retail battle is leading to a price war is prevalent, with platforms like Meituan and Taobao Flash Sale attempting to distance themselves from the concept of "internal competition" by promoting substantial subsidies [3][4]. - The emergence of the flash sale model is a response to the saturation of traditional e-commerce and aims to create new demand rather than merely competing for existing market share [5]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Growth - The flash sale model has resulted in a significant increase in daily order volume, from around 100 million before JD.com entered the market to approximately 250 million now, indicating a market increment of over 100 million orders [5]. - The core value of flash sales is not just speed but the reconfiguration of the "people-goods-scene" logic, enhancing consumer experience from delayed delivery to immediate purchase [5]. - The competition is not limited to food delivery but encompasses a broader range of services and products, leading to the concept of "big consumption" that transcends traditional categories [6]. Group 3: Impact on Domestic Consumption - The current economic strategy emphasizes expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption, with platforms leveraging flash sales to stimulate consumer spending [7]. - Service-oriented consumption has a higher frequency of demand compared to durable goods, making it a critical area for driving consumption growth [8]. - The flash sale subsidy strategy has significantly increased demand for high-frequency consumption scenarios, effectively acting as a distributor of consumption vouchers [9].

Group 1 - The article draws a parallel between the current food delivery market competition and the historical context of World War I, emphasizing the escalating nature of the competition among major players like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD [3][11] - Meituan's core business leader, Wang Pu Zhong, highlights the significant financial investments exceeding 50 billion yuan planned by competitors to increase daily order volume from 100 million to a record 250 million [3][12] - Wang argues that the ongoing competition is harmful to the industry and suggests that it leads to unsustainable practices, ultimately resulting in market bubbles [4][9] Group 2 - Meituan claims a competitive advantage in operational efficiency, allowing it to provide subsidies at a lower cost compared to its rivals, which is a result of ten years of experience [5][7] - The article discusses the strategic conflict between incumbents like Meituan, who aim to maintain stability and profitability, and challengers like Alibaba and JD, who are willing to use aggressive capital strategies to disrupt the market [11][26] - The competition has evolved from merely capturing the food delivery market to controlling the infrastructure of local life services, indicating a shift in strategic objectives among the players [12][14] Group 3 - The current competition is characterized as a "trench warfare," where success depends on efficiency and resilience rather than quick tactical victories [15][18] - Meituan's strategy involves leveraging its system capabilities to target subsidies effectively, thereby minimizing costs while maximizing impact [19][20] - The ongoing battle is complicated by internal and external pressures, including the need for companies to justify their substantial investments and the potential for regulatory intervention in cases of market distortion [30][31] Group 4 - The article concludes that the power dynamics in the competition are fluid, with no single entity holding the "ceasefire power," as all players are caught in a cycle driven by their investments and market pressures [33][34] - The potential for a ceasefire will arise when the costs of continuing the competition outweigh the benefits, but currently, the balance has not been achieved [25][28]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, is attributed to the fierce competition in the food delivery sector among Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com, leading to significant stock price drops for these companies [1][2][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ongoing food delivery war among Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com is causing short-term profit losses, which negatively impacts investor sentiment and stock prices [3][5][6]. - The stock prices of Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan have fallen significantly, with Alibaba nearing its April 7 low and JD.com and Meituan dropping below that level [6][7]. - The competition is not just about food delivery but is fundamentally aimed at capturing market share in the instant retail sector, also known as flash purchase [12][13]. Group 2: Instant Retail Market - Instant retail, or flash purchase, involves consumers ordering daily necessities online for delivery within 30 minutes, a market that has been growing despite challenges in supply chain and delivery capabilities [14][17]. - The instant retail market is currently valued at approximately 500 billion, with Meituan holding a 60% market share, and is projected to grow to 2 trillion by 2030 [29][30]. - Both Alibaba and JD.com are facing growth bottlenecks in their core e-commerce businesses, prompting them to pivot towards instant retail to capture this emerging market [18][19][25]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The competition in food delivery is seen as a necessary step for Alibaba and JD.com to build a user base and reduce delivery costs, which are essential for successfully launching instant retail services [35][41]. - The significant subsidies being offered by Alibaba (500 billion) and JD.com (100 billion) for food delivery are part of their strategy to gain a foothold in the instant retail market [42]. - The outcome of this competition may not be as critical for consumers, who benefit from lower prices, but it poses risks for investors in the short term due to the intense competition and market volatility [45][46].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley expects Alibaba's investment in food delivery and flash sales to reach approximately 10 billion RMB in the first fiscal quarter ending in June, which will pressure short-term profitability; however, the firm remains optimistic about the company's AI empowerment potential and maintains its e-commerce preference ranking: Alibaba > Meituan > JD [1] Group 1 - The expected investment in food delivery and flash sales for Alibaba in Q1 is around 10 billion RMB [1] - Short-term profitability is anticipated to be under pressure due to these investments [1] - The forecast for Q2 indicates that the investment in food delivery and flash sales may double to 20 billion RMB, leading to a more than 40% year-on-year decline in EBITA for Taobao and local services [1]