中国电商集团：CMR 稳健增长，闪购高效减亏 中国电商集团2QFY26 收入同增15.5%至1,326 亿元，CMR 同增10.1%，主要得益于变现率的同比改善。 2QFY26 中国电商集团调整后EBITA 利润105 亿，同比-76.3%，基本符合华泰预期的108 亿元。管理层 表示若不考虑闪购投入的影响，电商集团EBITA 在2QFY26 季度实现同比中个位数正增长，据此我们估 算闪购投入影响约367 亿元，符合我们此前预期。在闪购业务上，管理层表示10 月以来闪购单均亏损较 7-8 月时已收窄一半，订单份额保持稳定且GMV 份额有所提升（得益于客单价提升），并表示闪购对 用户活跃度及相关品类成交均有明显拉动，因此对CMR 产生正向影响。 机构：华泰证券 研究员：夏路路/侯杰 阿里巴巴2QFY26 总收入2,478 亿元，同增4.8%，好于VA 一致预期（下同）/华泰预测的同增2.2/2.9%， 主因云业务增速超预期；经调整EBITA 为91 亿元，同比-77.6%，经调整EBITA 利润率3.7%，逊于一致 预期的5.3%但好于华泰预测的3.2%。管理层在2QFY26 业绩会上表示公司持续投入于全栈AI ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a strong demand for cloud services and improvements in flash sales user experience, while acknowledging short-term pressure on e-commerce [4][6] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 have been lowered to 104.3 billion, 131.3 billion, and 164.7 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -34.0%, +25.8%, and +25.5% [4][5] - The report maintains a positive outlook on long-term ecological synergy driven by AI investments and cloud service expansion [4][6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - FY2026 revenue is projected at 1,098.75 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 10.3% [8] - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2026 is expected to be 104.38 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 34.0% [8] - The diluted EPS for FY2026 is forecasted at 5.7 RMB, with corresponding P/E ratios of 25.1, 19.5, and 15.2 for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively [8]

证券研究报告 阿里巴巴-W (9988 HK/BABA US) 港股通 云收入延续加速增长且闪购减亏在轨 华泰研究 中报点评 2025 年 11 月 26 日│中国香港/美国 互联网 阿里巴巴 2QFY26 总收入 2,478 亿元，同增 4.8%，好于 VA 一致预期（下同） /华泰预测的同增 2.2/2.9%，主因云业务增速超预期；经调整 EBITA 为 91 亿 元，同比-77.6%，经调整 EBITA 利润率 3.7%，逊于一致预期的 5.3%但好于 华泰预测的 3.2%。管理层在 2QFY26 业绩会上表示公司持续投入于全栈 AI 能力建设，且 AI 与阿里生态的协同效应带来了更大的发展空间，并在消费领 域继续推动各业务深度协同，大消费平台的效应已初步显现。展望后续，管 理层表示将继续投入 AI+云业务以产生更强的协同效应。我们预计随着模型实 力逐步增强和国内 AI 需求的持续增长，阿里有望以千问 APP 为中心，与阿 里旗下其它业务线如淘宝、高德、闪购和支付宝等进一步联通，帮助阿里在 ToC 端的 AI 流量入口处强化竞争力。闪购业务的持续减亏或有望为公司的中 短期利润额修复斜率提供一定支持。建议 ...

Core Insights - Alibaba's flash purchase business is expected to significantly reduce its overall investment in the next quarter, indicating a strategic shift towards improving unit economics and profitability [1][2] - The CEO of Alibaba, Wu Yongming, stated that the AI demand remains strong and that the AI bubble is unlikely to exist for at least the next three years, as supply chain expansions are driven by high demand [4][5] Financial Performance - Alibaba's China e-commerce group's adjusted EBITA fell by 76% year-on-year to 10.497 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.83 billion yuan, primarily due to heavy investments in flash purchases and user experience [1] - The flash purchase business incurred losses exceeding 30 billion yuan in the third quarter, but excluding these losses, the e-commerce group's EBITA showed a modest year-on-year growth in the single digits [1] Strategic Focus - The CEO of Alibaba's China e-commerce division, Jiang Fan, highlighted that the unit economics of instant retail have significantly improved, achieving a 50% reduction in per-order losses compared to July and August [2] - Flash purchases are considered a core strategy for the Taotian platform upgrade, with rapid scale expansion and unit economics optimization laying a foundation for sustainable growth in the delivery business [2] AI Demand and Supply Chain - Wu Yongming emphasized that the demand for AI remains robust, with shortages in global storage manufacturers, CPUs, and AI servers, indicating a production expansion cycle driven by AI demand [4][5] - The company plans to accelerate its supply chain and data center pace in response to current and future AI demand, suggesting that previous infrastructure investment plans may need to be increased [5]

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the importance of community engagement and support for new employment groups in Lianyungang, showcasing the city's commitment to improving their quality of life through various initiatives [1][2][3] - The "Lianxin e Family" brand was established to connect the needs of new employment groups with city management, resulting in a significant increase in their sense of belonging and satisfaction [1] - A television program titled "Social Work Face to Face" was launched to address the concerns of delivery workers, leading to the identification of 62 issues and the implementation of 15 measures to enhance their working conditions [1] Group 2 - The establishment of the "Lianxin Canteen" addresses dining challenges for new employment groups, while mental health support is provided through a tailored assessment and intervention program [2] - Over 1,200 activities have been conducted under the "Lianxin Warm" initiative, benefiting more than 50,000 new employment group members through various forms of assistance [2] - The city has upgraded the "Lianxin Code" to 2.0, forming volunteer service teams and integrating new employment group members into community governance, transforming them from service recipients to active contributors [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The market has experienced a significant style switch since November, with brokerages suggesting a focus on technology, consumption, and core asset industries as the year-end approaches in a bullish market environment [1] Market Valuation - As of October 31, the Hang Seng Technology PE-TTM stands at 22.9 times, which is in the 29th percentile historically [1] - Hong Kong's broad market valuation is notably low compared to global indices, with Hang Seng Technology valuations lower than the S&P 500 by 95%, Nasdaq by 88%, DAX by 79%, Nikkei 225 by 73%, and Nifty by 72% since 2005 [1] Capital Inflows - Since 2025, southbound capital inflows have exceeded 1.1 trillion yuan, primarily driven by institutional forces such as public funds and insurance capital [1] - It is anticipated that net inflows from southbound capital will exceed 1.5 trillion yuan next year [1] - In Q3 2025, both long and short-term foreign capital consistently flowed into Hong Kong's technology sector, indicating a growing consensus among foreign investors [1] Institutional Behavior - Data from China Aviation Securities indicates that in Q3, actively managed equity funds increased their positions in technology while reducing exposure to blue-chip sectors like banking [1] Investment Opportunities - Most brokerages believe that the technology growth trend is not over and still presents investment value, particularly in Hong Kong's technology, consumption, and core asset sectors [1] - The acceleration of the AI industry both domestically and internationally is expected to open new growth avenues for technology stocks, with potential for increased capital investment in the AI sector [1] Magnificent 7 in Hong Kong - The "Magnificent 7" in the Hong Kong market includes Xiaomi, Lenovo, BYD, SMIC, Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan, which are seen as core technology assets attracting investor attention [2] Company-Specific Insights - **Xiaomi**: Expected to benefit from AI applications and successful entry into the smart electric vehicle market, with a focus on new product launches and growth in smart hardware [3] - **Lenovo**: Anticipated growth in PC and smartphone demand driven by AI investments and expansion in emerging markets, particularly in the Middle East [4] - **BYD**: Projected to achieve global sales of 4.27 million vehicles in 2024, with a focus on smart vehicle technology and international expansion [4] - **SMIC**: Positioned as a major beneficiary of global supply chain restructuring, with strong demand for localized production [5] - **Alibaba**: Expected to lead in cloud services driven by AI demand, with a focus on enhancing e-commerce market share through innovative applications [5] - **Tencent**: Anticipated to leverage AI in social advertising and gaming, with a focus on enhancing product offerings through AI integration [6] - **Meituan**: Expected to benefit from growth in the local consumption market and improvements in profitability across various business segments [6]

Group 1 - Meituan plans to launch its largest-ever regular bond issuance, seeking to raise approximately $3 billion to bolster its financial position amid intense price competition in China's food delivery and local retail markets [1][5] - The company aims to issue $2 billion in US dollar-denominated notes and an equivalent of $1 billion in offshore renminbi notes, with the issuance potentially hitting the market as early as this week [1][5] - The funds raised will primarily be used for refinancing existing offshore debt and meeting general corporate needs, with a $750 million bond maturing this week [1][5] Group 2 - Major industry players, including Alibaba and JD.com, have introduced significant discounts and incentives this year, intensifying market competition and putting pressure on Meituan's stock performance [4] - Fitch Ratings has assigned a "BBB+" rating to Meituan's proposed US dollar bonds, consistent with its existing senior unsecured bond rating, but has revised the outlook from "positive" to "stable" due to expected revenue growth slowdown [6] - Despite short-term pressures, Fitch remains optimistic about Meituan's long-term prospects, anticipating a moderation in the intensity of the price war over the next 6 to 12 months, and expects the company to return to positive free cash flow by 2026 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 136.00 [7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face significant pressure on revenue growth and profits in Q3 2025 due to intense competition in the food delivery sector, particularly from irrational subsidies [1][2]. - Despite short-term challenges, the report remains optimistic about the company's long-term efficiency advantages and brand strength, anticipating a return to rational operations in Q4 2025 [1][5]. - The company is also making progress in its overseas food delivery business, with plans to expand into the Brazilian market [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - For Q3 2025, the company is projected to generate revenue of RMB 978 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 4.5%, but with an expected operating loss of RMB 18.5 billion and an adjusted net loss of RMB 15.9 billion [1][5]. - The report forecasts revenues of RMB 3,768 billion, RMB 4,448 billion, and RMB 5,102 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB -79 billion, RMB 354 billion, and RMB 544 billion [5][10]. Business Segments Performance - The instant delivery segment is expected to see a year-over-year order volume increase of 17.0% in Q3 2025, driven by increased platform subsidies, although user experience (UE) is projected to decline significantly [2]. - The dine-in segment is anticipated to grow by 5% year-over-year in Q3 2025, but faces pressure from offline dining consumption and increased competition from delivery services [3]. - New business revenue is expected to reach RMB 284 billion in Q3 2025, with a year-over-year growth of 17.5%, although it will incur an operating loss of RMB 2.4 billion [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, assigning PE multiples of 7x for the food delivery business and 18x for the dine-in business for 2026, with a target price of HKD 136.00 per share [5][14]. - The company’s estimated PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 13.00, 15.85, and 10.31 respectively [10][24].

Core Insights - The recent personnel adjustments in Meituan's S-team reflect the company's leadership development and future business focus [2][3] Group 1: Leadership Changes - Meituan promoted two executives with backgrounds in delivery and overseas business, namely Xiao Fei and Qiu Guangyu, to its S-team, which is responsible for strategic direction and core business layout [2][3] - The S-team now consists of eight members, including CEO Wang Xing and other key executives [2] - The leadership development program initiated in January 2020 aims to cultivate a talent pipeline through various measures such as talent assessment and succession planning [2] Group 2: Business Focus - Xiao Fei and Qiu Guangyu's promotions indicate Meituan's emphasis on local and international business growth, particularly in the face of intense competition in the local delivery market [3] - Meituan's core business includes local services such as delivery, dining, and travel, while new business segments encompass retail, software services, and international operations [2][3] - The company aims to establish a second growth curve through international expansion, particularly with its overseas business Keeta, which has shown strong growth in order volume and transaction value [4] Group 3: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Meituan's adjusted net profit was 12.442 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 41%, with the core local business segment's operating profit dropping by 75.6% due to competitive pressures [4] - Meituan's internationalization strategy includes expanding its delivery services abroad, with a target market size of 100 billion USD for Keeta [4]

Core Insights - The article highlights the troubling practices of a popular app in the second-hand toy trading market, where users face significant challenges in obtaining refunds and are subjected to questionable refund conditions [1][5][10]. Group 1: Company Overview - The app is described as a major platform for young people's interests and transactions, particularly in the second-hand toy market, with a projected transaction volume exceeding 100 billion yuan by 2025, primarily driven by toy sales [3][4][28]. - The platform claims to offer "official verification, genuine product assurance, and unified warehousing and shipping," addressing the pain points of authenticity and after-sales disputes in second-hand transactions [8][13]. Group 2: User Complaints and Issues - There has been a significant increase in user complaints, with nearly 10,000 complaints recorded on a consumer complaint platform, indicating a growing dissatisfaction with customer service and product quality [5][12]. - Users have reported that the platform's "福袋" (lucky bag) feature resembles gambling, as it involves random product selection with varying values, leading to concerns about consumer protection and potential addiction [6][20][24]. Group 3: Legal and Regulatory Concerns - Legal experts have noted that the platform's practices may exploit regulatory loopholes, making it difficult for users to seek legal recourse for their grievances [7][26]. - The article discusses the challenges faced by users in proving their cases in court, highlighting the need for better consumer protection measures in the context of online transactions [17][26]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Growth - The rapid growth of the second-hand toy market, fueled by high demand and the popularity of collectible toys, has led to a surge in user engagement, but also raised concerns about the platform's management capabilities and the integrity of its verification processes [28][30]. - The article emphasizes that while the platform has seen significant financial success, the underlying issues related to user experience and regulatory compliance could pose risks to its long-term sustainability [31][35].