Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see a revenue growth of approximately 11.55% in the current quarter, driven by cross-selling from flash sales and improvements in advertising efficiency due to AI [1][2] - Adjusted EBITA is projected to decline by 72.58% to 12.211 billion yuan, primarily due to losses from flash sales, which are estimated at around 35 billion yuan [1][2] E-commerce Group - Revenue growth for the e-commerce group is anticipated to be around 11.55%, with CMR growth at approximately 10.04%, continuing to outpace GMV growth [2] - The adjusted EBITA is expected to decrease by 72.58% to 12.211 billion yuan, largely impacted by flash sales investments [2] - Flash sales are projected to focus on increasing order volume in Q3 and reducing losses while expanding in-store business in Q4 [2] - The synergy from flash sales is expected to positively impact traditional e-commerce operations, potentially serving as an alternative for brand advertising [2] Cloud Intelligence Group - Revenue growth for the cloud intelligence group is expected to be around 30%, with an adjusted EBITA margin of approximately 9%, remaining stable year-on-year [3] - The company is actively advancing a 380 billion yuan AI infrastructure project and plans to increase investments to prepare for the ASI era [3] - By 2032, the energy consumption of Alibaba Cloud's global data centers is projected to increase tenfold compared to 2022, indicating a significant rise in computing power investments [3] - Collaborations with mobile manufacturers like Honor and Apple are anticipated to create new traffic entry points for the company's ecosystem [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue growth for FY2026 and FY2027 is projected at 3.30% and 11.11%, respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits expected to be 121.73 billion yuan and 162.61 billion yuan [4] - The estimated valuation for the e-commerce group and cloud intelligence group per ADS is 145.67 USD and 71.04 USD, respectively, with a target price of 216.72 USD per ADS [4]

中金发布研报称，目前阿里巴巴(9988.HK)港股和美股均交易于30和21倍的FY26和FY27非通用准则市盈 率。该行下调FY26收入预测1%至10,615亿元，维持FY27收入预测基本不变，主要系AIDC和闪购收入 低于该行预期;该行下调FY26和FY27非通用准则归母净利润17%和4%至1012亿元和1438亿元，主要系闪 购和其他业务亏损扩大。该行采用SOTP估值，基于FY27给予电商业务15x P/E和云计算业务7x P/S，维 持美股和港股目标价204美元和197港币，维持跑赢行业评级，较目前港股和美股股价有11%和13%的上 行空间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities has given Alibaba-W (09988) a "Buy" rating, projecting revenue growth rates of 3.30% and 11.11% for FY2026 and FY2027 respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits expected to be 121.73 billion yuan and 162.61 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -23.02% and 33.58% [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - For FY2Q2026, the Chinese e-commerce group's revenue growth is expected to be approximately 11.55%, with CMR growth around 10.04%, driven by cross-selling from flash sales and improved advertising efficiency due to AI [2] - The adjusted EBITA for the e-commerce segment is projected to decline by 72.58% to 12.21 billion yuan, primarily due to investments in flash sales, which are expected to incur losses of about 35 billion yuan [2] - Excluding flash sales, the e-commerce business's EBITA is expected to show positive year-on-year growth [2] Group 2: Cloud Intelligence Group - The Cloud Intelligence Group is anticipated to see a revenue growth rate of about 30% for the quarter, with an adjusted EBITA margin of approximately 9%, remaining stable year-on-year [2] - Capital expenditures (CapEx) are expected to remain at a high level as Alibaba actively advances its 380 billion yuan AI infrastructure development [2] - By 2032, the energy consumption of Alibaba Cloud's global data centers is projected to increase tenfold compared to 2022, indicating a significant escalation in computing power investments [2]

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: CITIC Securities has given Alibaba Group (09988) a "Buy" rating, forecasting revenue growth rates of 3.30% and 11.11% for FY2026 and FY2027 respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits of 121.73 billion yuan and 162.61 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -23.02% and 33.58% [1] - Valuation method: The company employs a segmented valuation approach, estimating the value per ADS for the China e-commerce group and the Cloud Intelligence group at $145.67 and $71.04 respectively, leading to a target price of $216.72 per ADS, equivalent to HKD 210.76 per share [1] Group 2 - FY2Q2026 outlook for China e-commerce group: Revenue growth is expected to be around 11.55%, with CMR growth at approximately 10.04%, driven by cross-selling from flash sales and improved advertising efficiency due to AI [2] - Profit expectations: Adjusted EBITA is projected to decline by 72.58% to 12.21 billion yuan, primarily due to investments in flash sales, which are expected to incur losses of about 35 billion yuan; however, excluding flash sales, the e-commerce business's EBITA is expected to show positive year-on-year growth [2] - Cloud Intelligence group outlook: Revenue growth is anticipated to be around 30%, with an adjusted EBITA margin of approximately 9%, remaining stable year-on-year; capital expenditures are expected to remain high as Alibaba actively advances its 380 billion yuan AI infrastructure development [2] - Future capacity growth: By 2032, the energy consumption of Alibaba Cloud's global data centers is projected to increase tenfold compared to 2022, indicating an exponential rise in computing power investments [2]

写了很多腾讯，后台很多用户私聊我，问怎样看阿里？特别是阿里最近涨幅很猛，蒋凡执掌权柄后有了 中兴之势！ 现在已经不是零售商阿里，是AI的阿里，在云服务、芯片、大模型上三箭齐发，同时闪购+到店+高德 为主站导入海量电商流量，寻找了10年之久的流量入口，终于搭建成功了。 1. 零售电商份额持续流失。零售本质就是多、快、好、省，之前基本是淘宝+天猫独霸了，现在心智完 全分散了。 好——京东自营+天猫品牌店； 多——淘宝、拼多多，抖音、快手货架也丰富起来； 快——京东； 还有菜鸟物流，蚂蚁（支付宝），海外电商板块都是实力在线，这样看上去，阿里眉清目秀， 高大威 猛！ 综合来看，阿里就是亚马逊（电商+云服务）+OpenAI（通义）+英伟达（自研芯片），简直是六边形战 士。 涨就是必然的。 我们反过来探究一下，那为啥之前不涨，跌跌不休？除了进入GP周期而不是效率周期之外，阿里本身 面对什么问题： 省——拼多多。 2. 新的战略级别流量入口始终没有办法找到。 陆兆禧集全集团之力做"来往"失败后，阿里除了同步搞了移动端，千人千面这是电商转化端，一直也同 步寻找新的线上战略级别入口，这个入口必须自己把控的，没有新的流量入口，再 ...

Summary of Meituan Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Meituan - **Industry**: Local services and e-commerce Key Points Stock Performance and Market Dynamics - Meituan's stock price has been influenced by both alpha and beta factors, underperforming the market from early 2023 to early 2024, but expected to outperform from May to September 2024 due to fundamental improvements [2][3] - During the rebound phase of Chinese concept stocks, Meituan typically shows greater elasticity compared to the Hang Seng Tech Index [2][4] - Since Q4 2024, Meituan has underperformed the Hang Seng Tech Index, primarily due to AI becoming the main theme for tech valuation reassessment, which Meituan has not directly benefited from [2][5] Valuation Changes - Meituan's valuation methodology has shifted from various methods to a focus on PE (Price to Earnings) valuation, with PE multiples fluctuating significantly, ranging from 10x to 25x in 2024 [2][6] - The long-term valuation floor is considered to be around 10x PE, with expectations of losses in 2025 necessitating a focus on future profit scenarios to assess current valuation [2][6][7] Financial Projections - Under pessimistic scenarios, Meituan's adjusted post-tax profit is projected to be around 50 billion yuan, with contributions from various segments: 10 billion from food delivery, 10 billion from flash sales, and 30 billion from in-store and travel services [2][7] - The current stock price corresponds to less than 12x PE, indicating it is nearing historical valuation lows from a long-term perspective [2][7] Historical Development Stages - Meituan has undergone five significant development phases since late 2019, including profitability in food delivery, pandemic-driven user habit changes, and regulatory pressures impacting the internet sector [2][8] - Each phase has shown that positive fundamental changes can lead to independent stock performance, while policy uncertainties can significantly impact the company [2][8] Competitive Landscape - In 2022 and 2023, Meituan faced challenges from macroeconomic conditions and intensified competition, particularly from Douyin, which has rapidly gained market share in local services [2][9][10] - Despite a doubling of GMV in the in-store travel business to 700 billion yuan, profitability has been pressured by commission reductions and consumer subsidies [2][10] Future Outlook - Meituan's stock price surged from around 60 HKD to approximately 210 HKD in early 2024, driven by prior overselling, improvements in core business margins, and organizational restructuring [2][11][12] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth potential, particularly in the food delivery sector and flash sales, leveraging its leading position in local services [2][17] Risks for Investors - Investors should be aware of potential EPS volatility from in-store business performance and the evolving competitive landscape [2][18] - Continuous monitoring of product innovation and member system development is crucial for assessing the effectiveness of business synergy and future industry trends [2][18]

Core Viewpoint - The current era is characterized by low costs for ordinary people to "lie flat," which can be seen as both a benefit and a sign of the disappearance of other benefits [4][8]. Group 1: Delivery Industry Insights - The low cost of food delivery in China is attributed to a significantly lower labor cost, averaging around $1 per delivery compared to $5 in the U.S. [9]. - Delivery riders face harsh penalties for delays, with a 20% deduction for being late by 3 minutes and a 50% deduction for being over 3 minutes late [9]. - A significant portion of delivery riders, nearly 45%, are aged between 31 and 45, with 37% working over 10 hours a day, yet only 2% earn over 10,000 yuan per month [9]. - Restaurants bear more than half of the costs for user subsidies, leading to a dilemma where they must choose between participating in subsidies for order growth or maintaining profitability [9][10]. - Major tech companies like Didi, Alipay, and Douyin have previously attempted to enter the food delivery market but exited due to low profitability [13][14]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The ongoing food delivery competition is driven by companies seeking to use delivery services as a means to attract customers to their core businesses, rather than a genuine interest in the delivery market itself [15][18]. - The absurdity of the current delivery war lies in the fact that no major player is truly committed to making food delivery profitable, as evidenced by the historical losses incurred by companies in this space [15][18]. - The competitive landscape reflects a broader trend across various industries where all parties involved are pressured to perform, leading to a cycle of "survival of the fittest" [15][16]. Group 3: Societal Reflections - The notion of "lying flat" is not a new concept but rather a response to the overwhelming pressures of modern life, where individuals feel trapped in a cycle of relentless competition [32]. - The current era offers a unique opportunity for individuals to pursue personal interests without the immediate pressure of societal expectations, contrasting sharply with previous generations [34][35]. - The narrative of success has shifted, with the current generation facing different challenges compared to those who thrived during the previous economic boom [24][34].

Group 1 - The current era is characterized by low costs for consumers, allowing them to enjoy services like food delivery at minimal expense, which is unprecedented in history [1][4] - However, this low cost comes at the expense of the income of service providers, highlighting a disparity in the benefits of the current economic model [3][5] - The low labor costs in China's food delivery sector are starkly contrasted with those in the US, with an average cost of approximately $1 per delivery compared to $5 in the US [6][7] Group 2 - Delivery riders face harsh penalties for delays, with significant income deductions for being late, and many work long hours with low pay, indicating a challenging work environment [7][10] - Restaurant owners are also dissatisfied, as they bear a significant portion of the costs associated with consumer subsidies, leading to a dilemma between participating in promotions or risking a loss of orders [8] - The overall sentiment among workers in the food delivery ecosystem is one of discontent, as their wages do not reflect the increasing demand for services [9][10] Group 3 - Major tech companies have previously attempted to enter the food delivery market but have exited due to low profitability, indicating that the food delivery business is not as lucrative as it appears [14][15] - The current competition among major players in the food delivery market is driven more by the need to attract users rather than a genuine interest in the food delivery business itself [16][19] - The ongoing food delivery wars reflect a broader trend of companies burning cash to gain market share, reminiscent of past market battles where losses were absorbed by platforms and investors [24][25] Group 4 - The current economic environment allows individuals more freedom to pursue personal interests without the pressure of traditional success metrics, contrasting with previous generations [58][61] - The notion of "lying flat" is not a new concept but reflects a response to the overwhelming pressures of modern work life, suggesting a shift in societal values [54][56] - The era presents a paradox where the pursuit of personal happiness and interests is now more accessible, yet the underlying economic pressures remain [60][62]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (3690.HK) is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - In FY2025Q2, the company achieved revenue of 91.84 billion yuan, which was below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 93.69 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. The adjusted net profit totaled 1.49 billion yuan, significantly lower than the expected 9.85 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year decline of 89.0%. The report suggests that the company is sacrificing short-term revenue performance for long-term strategic choices, reflecting its determination to gain market share. Although short-term profitability may fluctuate due to increased investments, the reliance on subsidies for competition is not sustainable, and such performance disturbances do not alter the long-term growth trend. The current intensified competition is accelerating the overall penetration of instant retail, opening up upward space for the company. Attention should be paid to the marginal turning point of subsidy investments, which could lead to a return of company value [2][6][9]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The core local business revenue was 65.3 billion yuan, below the consensus estimate of 67.5 billion yuan, with an operating profit of 3.7 billion yuan, also below the expected 12 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 75.6%. New business revenue was 26.5 billion yuan, slightly above the expected 26 billion yuan, but the operating loss expanded by 43.1% to 1.9 billion yuan, compared to the expected 2.4 billion yuan. The significant decline in performance was mainly due to the impact of subsidies starting in Q2, which affected the profitability of the food delivery business [9]. Core Local Business - Short-term subsidies are disrupting profitability, and losses are expected to widen in Q3. With the current subsidy pace, following Alibaba's entry into the food delivery market in May, subsidies have increased. It is anticipated that Meituan's food delivery losses will primarily occur in June, with further expansion of subsidies in July and August. The average loss per order is expected to exceed that of June, and the future subsidy trend will depend on Alibaba's investments. The company has indicated that significant losses will occur in Q3 for food delivery and core local business, but the gap in advantages over competitors will further widen. The flash purchase business has expanded to over 50,000 locations nationwide, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 50% in lower-tier markets, which is expected to create new growth for the company [9]. New Business - The company is accelerating the expansion of its Xiaoxiang supermarket and steadily advancing its overseas business. By the end of the reporting period, approximately 1,000 front warehouses for Xiaoxiang supermarkets had been established in nearly 20 cities. With adjustments to Meituan's preferred offerings, more resources will be allocated to Xiaoxiang's expansion, which is expected to cover all first- and second-tier cities in the country, aiming for a long-term profit margin target of 3%. In terms of overseas business, Keeta has expanded to 20 cities in Saudi Arabia, achieving a market share of first in Hong Kong and second in Saudi Arabia, with an expected GMV of 100 billion yuan by 2033 [9]. Investment Recommendations and Profit Forecasts - Looking ahead, the report emphasizes that the company is making a long-term strategic choice by sacrificing short-term revenue performance to gain market share. Due to increased subsidies and operational expenses, profitability may experience unexpected fluctuations in the short term. However, the reliance on subsidies for competition is not sustainable, and such performance disturbances do not alter the long-term growth trend. Under a neutral assumption, it is expected that Meituan's average loss per order in Q3 will be 1.44 yuan, corresponding to an adjusted net loss of 5.351 billion yuan. If subsequent subsidy reductions are better than expected, the average profit per order for food delivery could recover to 0.37 yuan in 2026, leading to an adjusted net profit of 38.6 billion yuan for the year. The projected overall revenue for Meituan from 2025 to 2027 is 373.966 billion, 418.687 billion, and 465.337 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 12.11 billion, 38.646 billion, and 57.476 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE ratios for 2026 and 2027 at the current stock price are 15x and 10x, maintaining a "Buy" rating [9].

Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of 91.8 billion RMB in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12%, slightly below market expectations by 1% and 2% [1] - Adjusted net profit decreased by 89% to 1.5 billion RMB, resulting in a net profit margin of 1.6% [1] - Core business adjusted operating profit fell by 76% to 3.7 billion RMB, with a profit margin of 5.7%, down 19 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to irrational competition in the industry [1] Business Performance - Core business revenue growth lagged behind order volume growth, attributed to intensified industry competition and increased user subsidies to enhance price competitiveness and ensure delivery efficiency [1] - Estimated year-on-year growth in takeaway order volume is approximately 10%, with a significant decline in Average Order Value (AOV) [1] - The in-store travel and accommodation Gross Transaction Value (GTV) increased by nearly 30% year-on-year, but revenue growth was slower than GTV due to changes in category structure and market penetration [1] New Business Developments - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation in its new business segment, exiting loss-making areas [1] - The "Xiaoxiang Supermarket" is experiencing strong growth and plans to accelerate expansion into first- and second-tier cities [1] - Keeta's order volume and GTV are rapidly increasing, with coverage in 20 cities in Saudi Arabia as of the end of July [1] Future Outlook - Increased takeaway subsidies are expected to impact performance in the coming quarters, with a forecast of core business turning to losses in Q3 [2] - Q3 takeaway competition is expected to intensify, with projected daily order volume growth of 16% year-on-year, but a potential revenue decline of 6% due to subsidies and strategic adjustments [2] - New business revenue is expected to grow by 18% year-on-year, with anticipated losses of approximately 2.3 billion RMB [2] Valuation and Market Position - The company maintains a leading market position, with a high probability of sustaining market share despite short-term profit adjustments [2] - The target price has been adjusted to 147 HKD, with a maintained buy rating based on long-term projections for takeaway and in-store business profits [2]