这家成立于2017年的公司，过去一段时间频繁成为被"收购"传闻的主角。传说中的买家一变再变，终究 没有改变叮咚买菜的结局。 2026年一开场，即时零售市场就火药味十足。 美团与叮咚买菜同步发布公告，确认美团将以初始代价7.17亿美元收购叮咚买菜中国的全部业务。 作为最后的非头部独立平台，这次交易被解读为生鲜电商多头竞争的终结。叮咚买菜被美团收购，也标 志着即时零售大战进入巨头直接对决的时期。 作为高频、高利润市场，生鲜自然是即时零售必争的核心战场。 从公司的角度看，叮咚买菜占据生鲜关键赛道、深耕前置仓模式、经营扭亏为盈，这些特征放在本地生 活布局之中，让其成为巨头眼中的优质标的。 这次交易肉眼可见地能扩充美团在华东市场的力量，让美团前置仓数量高速提升，在关键区域形成压倒 性优势，并降低获客成本。 电商零售不是新兴业态，不代表即时零售擦不出时代的火花。"闪购"介于电商和外卖之间，比传统外卖 品类丰富且利润更高，比传统电商配送更快、频次更密。 而从美团的角度看，过去一年外卖大战代价不小。无论是京东突然杀入外卖业务，还是来势汹汹的"淘 宝闪购"，美团一次次陷入被动防守局面。 财报数据亦难掩重压。美团在2025年三季 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Alibaba's Qianwen project is launching a significant Spring Festival red envelope campaign with an investment of 30 billion yuan, marking the largest investment in Alibaba's history for a Spring Festival event [1][4] - The Qianwen app will implement a "free meal" policy for the red envelope campaign, covering major Alibaba businesses such as Taobao, Flash Purchase, Fliggy, Damai, Gaode, and Hema [1] - The campaign is part of a broader strategy to engage users during the Spring Festival, coinciding with a competitive AI landscape among major tech companies [4] Group 2 - Qianwen app has announced exclusive sponsorship of the Spring Festival Gala on four major television stations, including Oriental TV, Zhejiang TV, Jiangsu TV, and Henan TV, enhancing its visibility [4] - The interactive feature of the Qianwen app allows viewers to participate in real-time during the Spring Festival Gala, providing an opportunity to win large red envelopes [4]

Group 1 - Everbright Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW, citing short-term pressure on advertising but stabilization trends, with AI cloud growth logic remaining intact [1] - China Hongqiao's target price raised to HKD 45 by CMB International, driven by a persistent global aluminum supply-demand gap until 2026-27, leading to a 27% and 12% upward revision in profit forecasts [1] - CMB International initiates a "Buy" rating for Innovation Industry with a target price of HKD 32, highlighting significant cost advantages from renewable energy and a clear growth path through overseas aluminum projects [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities lowers the target price for Ausnutria to HKD 2.11 while maintaining an "Add" rating, noting ongoing pressure from declining newborn population impacting domestic infant formula sales, but strong overseas performance [2] - Dongfang Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile with a target price of HKD 23.37, reporting a 121% year-on-year increase in January export sales and a 99.7% growth in the Zeekr brand [3] - Dongfang Securities also maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou-W with a target price of HKD 104.36, highlighting a 112% month-on-month increase in AI overseas revenue and ongoing technological advancements [3] Group 3 - CITIC Construction maintains a "Buy" rating for Laopu Gold, noting a pre-Spring Festival buying spree and strong brand expansion, with Q1 gross margin expected to approach 40% [4] - Kaiyuan Securities initiates a "Buy" rating for Leshu Comfort, emphasizing its leading market share in Africa for baby diapers and sanitary napkins, supported by localized production and distribution channels [5] - GF Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W, indicating a stabilization in food delivery competition and a solid market position, with profitability expected to improve by 2026 [6] - Guoyuan International Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Q Technology with a target price of HKD 12.89, noting a 27.2% year-on-year increase in camera module prices and a growing revenue share from non-mobile sectors [7]

经济观察报 记者 钱玉娟 2月2日，阿里巴巴旗下AI应用千问App宣布投入30亿元，启动"春节请客计划"，将联合淘宝、飞猪、大 麦、盒马、闪购、高德等阿里生态业务，服务并拓展用户。 从2月6日开始，用户在千问App发起需求，例如"AI购物""AI买电影票""AI订酒店"等，有机会抽取大额 现金红包，幸运者还能直接免单。 当日，经济观察报记者实测千问App，借助AI可以直接点咖啡、奶茶等外卖。不过如果用户想让AI在淘 宝买纸巾、高德上打车、飞猪上订酒店等，千问会以信息卡片的形式提供商品搜索、出行建议、比价等 服务，引导用户跳转至淘宝、高德、飞猪等完成结算。 一位接近千问App人士透露，千问内部正在对AI买电影票等功能进行灰度测试。届时用户在千问App主 对话页面，通过自然语言发出"想看电影"的指令后，AI助手就会自动调取大麦网数据，展示附近影院排 片、座位图及价格。用户在千问端内就能完成选片、选座、支付全流程，无需跳转至外部应用。 "上层应用团队一直在封闭开发。"上述千问App产品经理称，AI应用从信息交互向交易闭环延伸，需要 阿里巴巴旗下多个独立生态业务的配合。他在阿里巴巴杭州西溪园区C区的封闭区内，不常见到 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 1 Feb 2026 中国策略 China Strategy 海通国际 2026 年 2 月金股 HTI February 2026 Top Picks 周林泓 Amber Zhou amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com 2 Feb 2026 3 [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | 行业组 | 分析师 | 行业 | Top Pick | 看好理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | Google 被 AI 搜索压制的估值已经在逐步释放：1）通过 AI Overview | | | | | | 过渡 + AI mode 解锁交互式 AI 搜索功能，守护搜索市场，未来广告 | | | | | | 业务保持良好能见度；2）Google TPU 订单激增，Meta OpenAI 等大 | | | | | Alphabet (GOOGL US) | 量订购 TPU V7 系列。预计云业务全年 30%+增速，并且通过规模效 | | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to report an adjusted net loss of 13.2 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with a revenue growth of 4% year-on-year to 91.9 billion yuan, resulting in an adjusted net loss margin of 14% [1] Group 1: Q4 2025 Performance Expectations - The company anticipates a core local business operating loss of 11.5 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin (OPM) of -17.8%, aligning with previous expectations [1] - In the food delivery segment, competition intensity has decreased during the off-season, with expected order volume growth slowing to 13% year-on-year; despite a reduction in average user expenditure loss compared to Q3 2025, it is still projected to exceed 2 yuan [1] - The flash purchase segment is expected to see a strong year-on-year order volume growth of 30%, with average losses per order less than 1 yuan, resulting in an OPM of -19.5% [1] - The in-store travel and accommodation segment is projected to maintain stable growth in gross transaction value (GTV) and revenue, but OPM is expected to decline to 25.6% due to competition from Douyin [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - Entering 2026, competition uncertainty remains, particularly in the food delivery sector, where focus is shifting towards high-ticket markets and non-food retail; the company aims to strengthen consumer recognition of its user experience advantages [2] - Regulatory interventions against unfair competition are expected to curb irrational competitive behaviors in the industry, with a need to monitor the pace and specifics of these regulations [2] - Competitors are enhancing their agent capabilities and integrating into various life scenarios, with AI potentially becoming a variable affecting competition [2] - In the in-store travel and accommodation sector, competition is currently more rational compared to 2023, but attention is needed on Douyin's potential expansion into more verticals and Alibaba's increased investment in the in-store domain [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 at -16.8 billion yuan, while lowering the 2026 forecast from 19.6 billion yuan to -9.7 billion yuan, and reducing the 2027 forecast by 34% to 29.9 billion yuan [2] - The company is rated to outperform the industry, with a target price of 125 HKD, corresponding to a 23x adjusted P/E for 2027E and a 28% upside potential; the current price corresponds to an 18x adjusted P/E for 2027E [2]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's stock has shown volatility with a recent rebound, but trading volume has significantly decreased, indicating a lack of follow-up investment in the short term while maintaining confidence in its fundamentals due to substantial investments in artificial intelligence [3][6]. Trading Volume Analysis - On January 22, Alibaba's stock rose by 0.43% to HKD 163.9, with a trading volume of only HKD 5.4 billion, potentially dropping below HKD 10 billion for the day, compared to over HKD 40 billion on January 14 [3][4]. - The trading volume decline is attributed to insufficient follow-up funds and a general decrease in trading activity in the Hong Kong stock market [3][6]. AI Developments - As of January 21, Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen derivative models surpassed 200,000, making it the first open-source large model to achieve this milestone globally, with a cumulative download exceeding 1 billion times [5]. - The AI product launch on January 14 led to a significant stock price increase of 5.69% and a trading volume close to HKD 40.8 billion, but the subsequent week saw a 75% drop in trading volume [5][6]. Revenue Growth Projections - Dongwu Securities forecasts that Alibaba's revenue for Q3 of FY2026 (ending December 31, 2025) will reach CNY 292.9 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, primarily impacted by a slowdown in e-commerce growth [8]. - The adjusted EBITA for the same quarter is expected to be CNY 30.611 billion, with an EBITA margin of 10.5% [8]. E-commerce and Cloud Business Insights - The e-commerce segment is anticipated to face pressure due to weakened macro demand and high base effects, with customer management revenue growth expected to decline to 3% [9]. - Alibaba Cloud's revenue for the quarter is projected to be CNY 42.852 billion, a 35% year-on-year increase, with a stable EBITA margin around 9% [9]. Long-term Outlook - If Alibaba's AI assistant products achieve technological and user acceptance milestones, the company is positioned to capture a significant share of the new internet traffic entry points [9][10]. - The company’s ecosystem, which includes various applications without reliance on third parties, provides a natural advantage in maintaining stable traffic [10].

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's trading volume has significantly decreased from approximately 408 billion HKD to around 100 billion HKD, indicating a shift in market dynamics and investor sentiment [2][3]. Trading Volume Analysis - On January 22, Alibaba's stock rose by 0.43% to close at 163.9 HKD, but the trading volume was only 54 billion HKD, with expectations that it might fall below 100 billion HKD [2]. - The trading volume peaked at over 400 billion HKD on January 14, driven by positive news regarding artificial intelligence products [2][3]. - A week later, on January 21, the trading volume dropped to approximately 109 billion HKD, reflecting a 75% decrease in just one week [3]. Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Analysts suggest that the recent decline in trading volume is due to a lack of new stimulating news and a cautious approach from investors, who are holding onto their positions despite short-term price fluctuations [4]. - The overall market environment has also contributed to this cautious sentiment, with the Hang Seng Index falling below 27,000 points [4]. Revenue Growth Projections - East China Securities analysts predict that Alibaba's revenue for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 will reach 292.9 billion CNY, representing a 4.6% year-over-year growth, primarily impacted by a slowdown in e-commerce growth [5]. - For the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, Alibaba's revenue is expected to be 280.15 billion CNY, with an 8% year-over-year increase [5]. Cloud Services Performance - Alibaba Cloud is projected to generate 42.852 billion CNY in revenue for the current quarter, marking a 35% year-over-year increase, with a stable EBITA profit margin around 9% [6]. - The company is enhancing its AI cloud services, which are expected to maintain growth due to increasing demand for AI capabilities [6]. AI and Market Position - The launch of the AI assistant product is seen as a significant milestone, potentially positioning Alibaba to capture a larger share of the internet traffic in the future [7]. - Alibaba's open-source model, which has surpassed 200,000 derivatives and 1 billion downloads, places it at the forefront of the AI model landscape [3][7].

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's trading volume has significantly decreased from approximately 408 billion HKD to around 100 billion HKD, indicating a lack of follow-up capital and a broader market contraction despite recent rebounds in stock price [2][8]. Trading Volume Analysis - On January 22, Alibaba's stock rose by 0.43% to 163.9 HKD, but the trading volume was only 54 billion HKD, potentially falling below 100 billion HKD for the day. This contrasts sharply with January 14, when trading volume exceeded 400 billion HKD due to positive news regarding AI products [2][8]. - The trading volume dropped approximately 75% within a week, from nearly 408 billion HKD on January 14 to about 109 billion HKD on January 21, reflecting a significant decline in market activity [3][9]. - Analysts suggest that the recent decline in trading volume is linked to a lack of new stimulating news and a cautious approach from buyers, as the market enters a correction phase [4][10]. Revenue Growth Projections - Dongwu Securities forecasts that Alibaba's revenue for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 will reach 292.9 billion CNY, representing a 4.6% year-over-year growth, primarily impacted by a slowdown in e-commerce growth [5][11]. - For the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, Alibaba's revenue is expected to be 280.15 billion CNY, with an 8% year-over-year increase, while adjusted EBITDA is projected at 62.05 billion CNY [5][11]. AI and Cloud Business Insights - Alibaba Cloud's revenue is anticipated to reach 42.852 billion CNY this quarter, marking a 35% year-over-year increase, with a stable EBITA margin of around 9% [6][12]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its AI capabilities, which could lead to sustained revenue and profit growth as AI adoption increases [6][12]. - The launch of the AI assistant product is seen as a pivotal moment for Alibaba, potentially allowing it to capture a significant share of the new internet traffic [7][13]. Market Position and Future Outlook - Alibaba's AI models have achieved significant milestones, including over 200,000 derivative models and 1 billion downloads, positioning the company as a leader in the open-source AI model space [3][9]. - The market's focus is shifting from traditional e-commerce to AI and cloud services, which are expected to contribute increasingly to Alibaba's valuation in the medium to long term [7][13].

宏观逆风拖累电商业务发展，闪购保持投入：受宏观消费需求走弱及take rate 的高基数效应等因素影 响，我们预计本季度CMR 增速将降至3.0%。闪购方面，公司的目标是拿下即时零售市场的绝对第一。 受益于用户结构、订单结构和履约成本优化，本季度闪购GMV 和AOV 将稳步提升。利润上，我们预计 闪购业务亏损将收窄，相比竞争对手亏损收敛速度更快。 云业务收入增速提升，基础设施与应用端同步加码：得益于客户对AI算力及服务的强劲需求，我们预 计阿里云本季度收入达428.52 亿元，同比增长35.0%。利润方面，我们预计阿里云本季度EBITA Margin 将环比持平，维持在9.0%左右。公司在AI 云领域的布局持续深化，不仅在B 端覆盖更多客户，C 端也 增强对千问APP 等AI 应用的推广。展望未来，由于阿里云具备模型、算力、生态等优势，随着AI 渗透 率提升，其收入和利润有望维持增长。 盈利预测与投资评级：考虑到公司主业业务格局稳定，云业务将继续维持高速增长，我们维持 FY2026/FY2027/FY2028 的Non-GAAP 净利润预测为101,525/141,564/184,647 百万元， FY202 ...