Broadcom Inc. ( AVGO ) is a technology company that focuses on semiconductor solutions and infrastructure software. This is a roughly $1.6 trillion market capitalization stock. Although the stock rallied by nearly a triple-digit percentage, I argue the company has more upside to go. AVGO remainsDear Reader,I am a Senior Derivatives Expert with over 10 years of experience in the field of Asset Management, specializing in equity analysis and research, macroeconomics, and risk-managed portfolio construction. M ...

Mark, good morning. Let's think about then what we've learned over the last 24 hours. Have you taken away anything material with regard to either specifically NVIDIA or the big tech names that's reshaping your thinking at all.Or are we still waiting, waiting for more confirmation that. I done that has been a big game changer. That's in the context that we always kind of knew from the earnings previously this season that NVIDIA earnings were going to be very strong.They are the big beneficiaries of the massi ...

Group 1 - The current investment environment is characterized by a significant CapEx bubble, with expectations for further inflation of this bubble until 2026, indicating that the market is not close to a bursting point yet [2][4]. - Short-term pressures are affecting retail favorites and momentum stocks, particularly those linked to the crypto sector, suggesting that the market dynamics are still evolving and not fully exhausted [3][5]. - The recent Fed minutes have led to increased skepticism regarding a potential rate cut in December, which may contribute to further pullbacks in frothy stocks in the coming weeks [5][6]. Group 2 - The lack of a Fed cut in December is not seen as a significant problem, as the Fed is unlikely to cut rates unless there is a clear need, and the current economic conditions do not suggest an imminent crisis [7][8]. - The ongoing CapEx spending is benefiting major companies, particularly in the tech sector, as inflation and fiscal spending continue to drive valuations [10].

Rising asset prices can nudge people to spend more, amplifying economic cycles. Such a “wealth effect” has most clearly been observed in housing markets. Now it is also seen in the stockmarket https://t.co/RtPXZdqGmZ ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that asset prices, including stocks, are at elevated levels, but he does not see this as a time of heightened financial stability risks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Powell acknowledged that equity prices are considered fairly highly valued by many measures [2]. - In the lead-up to recent policy meetings, there was a strong rally in stocks and other assets, driven by expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee would lower its benchmark overnight borrowing rate [2]. - Following the decision to cut rates by a quarter percentage point, stocks have continued to reach record highs for major averages [2]. Group 2: Financial Stability - Despite the high equity values, Powell stated that the current environment does not present elevated financial stability risks [3]. - The Federal Reserve monitors overall financial conditions to assess whether their policies are achieving desired outcomes [2].

Core Insights - Average FICO credit scores have decreased by two points this year, marking the largest decline since 2009, with rising delinquencies in car loans, personal loans, and credit cards [1] - Default rates are increasing but are not currently at concerning levels; monitoring continues [2] - A single rate cut may not have an immediate visible effect, but a strong economy and labor market are the long-term goals [3] Economic Conditions - The recent rate cut occurs while the stock market is near all-time highs, raising concerns about potential overheating and asset bubbles [4] - The focus remains on achieving maximum employment and price stability, with careful monitoring of financial stability [5] - Households and banks are generally in good financial shape, although lower-income individuals are experiencing pressure [5][6]

Inflation & Monetary Policy - Inflation initially hovered around 3% at the start of the year, then fell to approximately 12%-2% in April, and is now near the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, representing a roughly 33% decrease since the beginning of the year [3] - The US has the largest gap between the City Inflation Surprise Index 3 months ago and today, indicating a positive surprise for the economy [4] - The US government has increased the national debt by approximately $500 billion since the debt ceiling was lifted in early July [6] - The consensus on Wall Street is that Jerome Powell will not change interest rates at the current Federal Reserve meeting, but a surprise rate cut could significantly boost stocks, Bitcoin, and gold [12] Technology & Innovation - Loom has introduced a robotic lamp that can perform chores, showcasing the potential for robots to integrate into everyday household items [14][15] - Shortcut demoed an AI Excel agent that reportedly outperforms first-year analysts from McKinsey and Goldman Sachs 89% of the time [16] - An AI Excel agent can build a multi-tab DCF model with assumptions, drivers, a Monte Carlo simulation, comps analysis, sensitivity tables, and a final dashboard in about 10 minutes [17] Billionaires & Problem Solving - Jensen Huang claims to have created more billionaires on his management team than any other CEO [20] - The success of billionaires like Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, and Jensen Huang is attributed to their ability to solve significant problems in society [24][25] - The industry needs more billionaires who are problem solvers to drive progress and improve lives [26] Societal Issues - A shooting in Midtown Manhattan resulted in four deaths, highlighting the issue of violence in society [27] - The NYPD's response to the shooting was commendable, as officers ran towards the gunfire to neutralize the threat and protect civilians [28][29] - A Blackstone employee's quick thinking and leadership in barricading the office during the shooting is considered heroic [30]

Dollar Devaluation & Asset Prices - The dollar has devalued 50% over the last 35-40 years, a trend expected to continue unless there's a complete collapse in the currency [1][2] - Asset prices in the US are increasing faster than the dollar devalues, making dollar-denominated assets desirable globally [2][3] - Until the US runs surpluses or eliminates its debt, there will be a reason to be short the dollar, but demand for dollar-denominated assets will likely continue [4] - Dollar devaluation is a long-term phenomenon that has existed for 50+ years, acting as a drag that can be overcome by the increase in asset values [12] US Economic Strength & Investment - American ingenuity and supremacy, particularly in AI, will continue to drive demand for American assets [14] - Betting against the United States in the long run is generally a losing proposition [15] - The key boundary condition for US economic strength is the quality of human capital and its ability to innovate [17] - Significant investment in data centers, AI, and nuclear power plants indicates ongoing American exceptionalism [22] Foreign Holdings of US Treasuries - Foreign holdings of US Treasuries have declined from 34% in the last 10 years [18] - Decreased foreign holdings of US Treasuries suggest that foreign governments and central banks have less influence on American fiscal and monetary policy [19]

Q1 2019 Highlights - VLCC average spot rate in TI Pool was $35,195 per day, compared to $18,725 in Q1 2018[8] - VLCC average time charter rate was $27,630 per day[8] - Suezmax average spot rate was $27,380 per day, compared to $14,000 in Q1 2018[8] - Suezmax average time charter rate was $32,680 per day[8] - In Q1 so far, VLCC 535% fixed at around $26500 per day[12] - In Q1 so far, Suezmax 493% fixed at around $18000 per day[12] Financial Performance - Revenue increased to $232589 thousand in Q1 2019 from $98136 thousand in Q1 2018[13] - Net profit for the period was $19526 thousand in Q1 2019, compared to a loss of $39091 thousand in Q1 2018[13] - Result after taxation per share was $009 in Q1 2019, compared to $(025) in Q1 2018[13] - Cash increased to $1785 million in Mar-19 from $1730 million in Dec-18[15] Market Signals - US crude export outlook shows potential for growth to 2022[18] - Correlation between Euronav share price and new build VLCC value is 84%[25] - Demand 3% Supply 3% - VLCC $35K Q4 & Q1[26] Liquidity and Leverage - Liquidity increased to $785 million[17] - Leverage is 462% marked to market[16]