The Bank of England used its regular business survey to warn that UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will unveil her budget against a grim backdrop of weak business investment, rising unemployment and slowing growth https://t.co/mNIqkq8N3t ...

Core Insights - The UK's asset finance market experienced a 3% decrease in new business for August 2025 compared to the same month in the previous year, although there was a marginal cumulative increase of 1% for the first eight months of 2025 compared to 2024 [1][2]. Sector Performance - Business new car finance and business equipment finance sectors showed growth in August 2025, with increases of 7% and 4% respectively compared to August 2024 [2]. - In contrast, the commercial vehicle finance sector saw a significant decline of 17%, while the IT equipment finance sector experienced an 11% drop in new business compared to the same month in 2024 [2]. Economic Outlook - FLA's Q3 2025 Industry Outlook Survey indicated that over half of asset finance respondents expect a decrease in business investment over the next year, with the percentage anticipating an increase in new business dropping from 79% to 71% between Q2 and Q3 2025 [4]. - The FLA emphasized the need for a government growth agenda to restore business confidence, noting that the asset finance market supports about one-third of all UK investment in vehicles, machinery, and equipment [5].

Bank of America is feeling good about the prospects for the market rally extending into 2026. Strategists predict the S&P 500 will rise another 8% in the next year, while earnings will grow 12%. The bank thinks the market is benefiting from a 1990s-style productivity boom and investment cycle. The stock market should have another solid year in 2026, Bank of America predicts. Despite lingering concerns about the strength of the US economy, strategists at the bank said they believe stocks will conti ...

Group 1 - Ackermans & van Haaren (AvH) has agreed to invest 22 million euros in VKC Nuts Private Limited, a prominent family business in the nuts and dried fruits sector in India [1] - Following the investment, AvH will acquire a 16.6% stake in VKC Nuts and will have representation on its board of directors [1] - The closing of this investment is anticipated in the fourth quarter of this year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion highlights concerns regarding the U.S. economy's long-term competitiveness, particularly in science, technology, and education, especially in comparison to China's investments in these areas [6][7][8]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is viewed as the most impressive globally, but there are significant areas to monitor, particularly the investment in education and technology [5][6]. - The current economic environment suggests that stocks are generally fully priced, with less margin for error if economic conditions do not meet expectations [19][20]. Investment Concerns - There is a notable slowdown in business investment, particularly in equipment and AI-related categories, which could impact GDP growth in the second half of the year [21][22]. - The potential for profit margin erosion due to tariffs and the impact of inventory adjustments may lead to cost increases and supply chain disruptions [14][15]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market is showing signs of concern, with a stagnant labor force size affecting unemployment rates and overall economic health [16][17]. - A significant portion of PhD holders in critical fields such as medicine and engineering are immigrants, which underscores the importance of immigration policies and domestic education quality [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Soft data has historically indicated economic slowdowns earlier than hard data, but current hard data may take longer to reflect the impact of tariffs due to frontloading of imports and spending [3][6] - Surveys and management commentary can still provide valuable insights if interpreted carefully, focusing on concrete company decisions rather than general economic impressions [4][8] - The overall commentary suggests a forecast of slower hiring, slightly higher unemployment, minimal growth in investment spending, below-potential GDP growth, and a one-time inflation rebound to the mid-3s [4][46] Hiring Insights - Companies affected by policy uncertainty and reliant on sales to China and Europe have significantly reduced job openings, while total openings have only moderately declined [12][13] - The share of companies signaling layoffs has increased slightly, but remains low compared to historical peaks, and hiring freezes have risen but are still within expansion period ranges [14][19] Investment Insights - Analysts have lowered capital spending expectations for more companies than they have raised in the last three quarters, although total capital expenditure expectations have risen due to increased AI investment [20][22] - Companies most affected by tariffs and policy uncertainty have seen larger reductions in capital spending expectations, with a notable 5-6% decrease for those with significant sales exposure to China and the EU [22][27] Production and Supply Chain Insights - Companies are increasingly concerned about tariffs impacting their supply chains but have not reported significant shortages that could disrupt production [28][31] - The report assumes that tariffs will not lead to widespread shortages, which could otherwise pose risks to inflation and GDP growth [32] Pricing Insights - Companies have announced only modest price increases this year, with expectations that consumers will absorb about 50% of the direct tariff costs, lower than the previously assumed 70% [4][43] - The limited increase in price announcements reflects a cautious approach among companies, particularly those exposed to policy uncertainty [33][38]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **US Economics** sector, specifically focusing on **durable goods orders** and **manufacturing activity**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Durable Goods Orders Decline**: Durable goods orders fell by **6.3% MoM** in April, which was a smaller decline than the consensus expectation of **-7.8%** but aligned with Citi's estimate of **-6.1%**. This decline was primarily due to weakness in transportation goods orders, while durable goods orders excluding transportation saw a modest increase of **0.2%** after a contraction in March [3][6][4]. 2. **Core Capital Goods Orders**: Core capital goods orders (nondefense excluding aircraft) experienced a significant decline of **1.3% MoM**, with shipments of core capital goods falling slightly by **0.1%**. However, shipments of nondefense capital goods including aircraft rose by **3.5%**, indicating some support for business equipment investment in GDP [4][6][7]. 3. **Impact of Tariffs**: The call highlighted that strong aircraft orders in March may have been a result of buyers locking in prices before anticipated tariff-related increases. The expectation is that tariffs will continue to weigh on manufacturing activity and business investment in GDP into the second half of the year [1][5][6]. 4. **Volatility in Manufacturing Activity**: There is an expectation of continued volatility in manufacturing activity data due to tariff delays, which may lead to more front-loading of activity in the coming months. However, the overall sentiment is that uncertainty surrounding tariffs will negatively impact manufacturing [5][6]. 5. **Weakness in Orders**: The decline in core capital goods orders is seen as a proxy for underlying investment demand. Continued weakness in these orders is expected to lead to a further pullback in shipments in the coming months, which would negatively affect business equipment investment in GDP [7][4]. Additional Important Information - The report emphasizes the potential conflict of interest due to Citi Research's business relationships with companies covered in its reports, advising investors to consider this when making investment decisions [2][13]. - The analysts responsible for the report certify that their views accurately reflect their personal opinions and were prepared independently [12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the current state of the US durable goods orders and the implications for the manufacturing sector.