Core Insights - CoreWeave (CRWV) and Amazon (AMZN) are significant players in AI-focused cloud infrastructure, with CRWV specializing in GPU-optimized compute for AI workloads and AWS providing large-scale AI and high-performance cloud services [1][2] Market Overview - The global cloud AI market is projected to grow from $102.09 billion in 2025 to $589.22 billion by 2032, reflecting a CAGR of 28.5% [3] CoreWeave (CRWV) Highlights - CoreWeave has transformed from a niche GPU provider to a leading AI cloud service, achieving record revenue growth of 134% and a revenue backlog exceeding $55 billion [5][8] - The company has expanded its active power footprint by 120 MW to approximately 590 MW and contracted power capacity to 2.9 GW, with over 1 GW of contracted capacity available for future sales [6] - Major partnerships include a multi-year deal with Meta worth up to $14.2 billion and an expanded partnership with OpenAI totaling about $22.4 billion [7] - CoreWeave's revenue outlook for 2025 has been revised down to $5.05–$5.15 billion due to supply constraints and project delays [10] Amazon (AMZN) Highlights - AWS revenues increased by 20.2% year-over-year to $33 billion, representing 18.3% of Amazon's third-quarter sales [12] - AWS is rapidly expanding its power capacity, adding over 3.8 GW in the past year and planning to double its capacity by 2027 [14] - Amazon's international expansion is enhancing long-term growth potential, particularly in emerging markets [15] - Despite strong growth, Amazon faces financial pressures due to heavy investments in AI and data center expansion, with expected cash CapEx reaching around $125 billion in 2025 [16] Performance and Valuation - Over the past six months, CRWV shares have declined by 28.3%, while AMZN shares have increased by 12.6% [17] - Valuation metrics indicate that CRWV is overvalued with a Price/Book ratio of 9.27X compared to AMZN's 6.54X [21] - Analysts have revised earnings estimates upward for AMZN, while CRWV has seen a downward revision [22][24] Investment Considerations - AMZN is positioned favorably due to fast-growing AWS demand and significant infrastructure expansion, while CRWV is recognized for its high growth potential in the AI sector but faces challenges related to capital needs and customer concentration [25][26]

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 20 November 2025 Global Research UBS Global I/O Semiconductors Cloud AI: how tight could N3 foundry and CoWoS be in 2026? [ERRATUM] New analysis of N3 foundry supply-demand In this note, we set out our proprietary analysis of N3 foundry supply. Cloud AI accelerators including Nvidia's Rubin and ASICs like Google's TPUs and Amazon's Trainium are due to migrate from N4 to the N3 process in 2026, all to be carried out at TSMC. Our research in October highlighted TSMC' ...

ab 20 November 2025 Global Research Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Raising capex and growth estimates on cloud AI megatrend Lifting 2026/27E capex to US$50/52bn Based on our further evaluation of cloud AI demand and new N3 supply/demand analysis (link), we raise our 2026/27 capex estimates for TSMC to US$50/52bn, from US $46/50bn previously. We believe TSMC, as the critical foundry supplier of leading edge and advanced packaging, needs to accelerate capacity expansion to support larger cloud AI demand. ...

Financial Performance & Growth Strategy - NXP aims for high single-digit organic revenue growth and gross margin expansion above 60%[10, 124] - The company plans to return 100% of excess free cash flow (FCF) to its owners[10, 124] - NXP targets doubling non-GAAP EPS by 2030+[11, 125] - NXP's revenue is projected to grow from $12.6 billion in 2024 to approximately $16.0 billion in 2027, with a CAGR of 6-10%[36] Market Positioning & Opportunities - Automotive and Industrial & IoT sectors are expected to drive growth at the intelligent edge, within a $1.3 trillion semiconductor market opportunity[16, 17] - Automotive revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8-12% from 2024 to 2027, reaching ~$9.5 billion[42, 51] - Industrial & IoT revenue is projected to increase at a CAGR of 8-12% from 2024 to 2027, reaching ~$3.1 billion[48, 51] Financial Results (Q3 2025) - Q3 2025 revenue was $3.173 billion, an increase of 8% quarter-over-quarter but a decrease of 2% year-over-year[75] - Non-GAAP gross profit for Q3 2025 was $1.810 billion, resulting in a gross margin of 57.0%[78, 117] - Non-GAAP operating profit for Q3 2025 was $1.071 billion, yielding an operating margin of 33.8%[78, 117] Capital Return & Debt - NXP's cumulative capital return from 2018 to 2024 was $19.2 billion, representing 109% of non-GAAP FCF[91] - The company's net debt stood at $8.281 billion as of Q3 2025, with a net leverage of 1.8x[94]

Summary of TSMC Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) - **Industry**: Semiconductor Foundry - **Market Cap**: NT$38,512 billion / US$1,257 billion [7] Key Points Financial Performance and Guidance - TSMC raised full-year sales growth guidance to mid-30% and capex to US$40-42 billion for 2026 [2][3] - Q4 sales guidance indicates a 1% QoQ decline, aligning with expectations of flat QoQ [2] - Q3 gross margin (GM) was reported at 59.5%, exceeding expectations of 57.5%, attributed to cost reductions and improved utilization [2] - Q4 GM is expected to remain resilient at 60.0% [2] - 2025E EPS was raised by 5% to NT$64.39, and 2026-27E EPS increased by 8-10% due to a stronger outlook for Cloud AI and non-AI segments [5][8] Capital Expenditure and Growth Drivers - Capex for 2025E is projected to reach US$42 billion, with 2026/27E capex raised to US$46 billion/50 billion [3] - Key growth drivers include: 1. Expansion of N3 capacity to support AI accelerator migration [3] 2. Accelerated N2 ramp for smartphones and PCs [3] 3. Faster expansion in the US, with plans for earlier mass production in Arizona [3] Gross Margin and Overseas Expansion - Management revised overseas expansion GM dilution expectations from 2-3% to 1-2% for 2025, indicating a more favorable product mix and price adjustments [4] - Forecast for 2026 GM is 58.1%, slightly below the 59.4% estimate for 2025 due to N2 dilution and overseas expansion impacts [4] Revenue and Profitability Projections - Revenue projections for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are NT$3,781.8 billion, NT$4,537.8 billion, and NT$5,604.6 billion respectively, reflecting YoY growth rates of 31%, 20%, and 24% [14] - Net profit for 2025E is projected at NT$1,669.5 billion, with a net margin of 44.1% [14] Revenue Mix and Technology Adoption - Revenue mix by platform for Q325 shows: - HPC: 57% - Smartphone: 30% - IoT: 5% - Auto: 5% [12][29] - Wafer revenue by technology indicates a strong focus on advanced nodes: - 3nm: 23% - 5nm: 37% [13][31] Valuation and Market Position - Price target raised to NT$1,700 from NT$1,570, maintaining a Buy rating [5][7] - TSMC's valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 23x for 2026E, with a long-term earnings CAGR of 20% [5] Industry Outlook - The semiconductor foundry industry is expected to continue outperforming the broader semiconductor market, driven by growth in HPC-related applications, including CPUs, networking, and AI accelerators [27] Additional Insights - TSMC's overseas expansion is expected to have a manageable impact on gross margins, with a focus on maintaining competitive pricing and product mix [4] - The company is optimistic about the demand for Cloud AI, anticipating further upside in sales, margins, and capex outlook from 2026E [2][3] This summary encapsulates the key insights from TSMC's conference call, highlighting the company's robust financial performance, strategic growth initiatives, and positive industry outlook.

Group 1 - Since Apple became the first company to reach a $1 trillion market cap in 2018, a total of 10 U.S. companies have market caps above $1 trillion, with Berkshire Hathaway being the only one without direct ties to the AI industry [1] - Oracle is positioned as the next tech stock likely to achieve the $1 trillion milestone, reemerging as a significant player in the AI industry [2] - Oracle has successfully pivoted from being a database company to establishing a strong presence in the cloud with its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) [4] Group 2 - Oracle's remaining performance obligations (RPOs) rose 359% to $455 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, leading to a 36% stock increase and briefly pushing its market cap above $900 billion [7] - The cloud segment constitutes 48% of Oracle's revenue, growing by 28% year-over-year in fiscal Q1, while overall revenue growth was 11% [9] - Grand View Research forecasts a 40% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the cloud AI market through 2030, indicating strong growth potential for Oracle [8]

Core Insights - TD Cowen analysts conducted a survey of 215 companies regarding their cloud spending plans, which has been a predictive indicator of critical industry trends since 2012 [1] Group 1 - The survey is an annual process that provides insights into cloud spending trends within the industry [1]

Core Insights - Nvidia is currently the world's most valuable company with a market cap of $4.32 trillion, driven by its dominance in the AI chip market [1] - Microsoft is experiencing significant growth in demand for its cloud-based AI and productivity offerings, positioning it as a potential competitor to Nvidia [1][5] Nvidia - Nvidia's growth is expected to continue due to substantial investments in AI data centers over the next five years [2] - The company's stock trades at 47 times trailing earnings and 25 times sales, reflecting high investor enthusiasm [3] - However, Nvidia faces challenges from increasing competition in the AI chip market and geopolitical factors [3][17] Microsoft - Microsoft reported a 15% increase in revenue to $282 billion for fiscal 2025, with adjusted earnings rising by 16% to $13.64 per share [6] - The Azure cloud business saw a remarkable 39% year-over-year revenue growth, indicating strong performance [6][10] - Microsoft's commercial bookings surged by 37% to over $100 billion, leading to a total remaining performance obligation (RPO) of $368 billion, also up by 37% [7][8] - The demand for cloud-based AI services is projected to grow at an annual rate of nearly 40% through the end of the decade, enhancing Microsoft's revenue potential [11] Future Projections - Analysts expect Microsoft's revenue to grow in the mid-teens, potentially reaching $425 billion by fiscal 2028 [14] - If Microsoft maintains a 15% annual growth rate, its revenue could hit $562 billion by the end of the decade, with a market cap potentially rising to $5.6 trillion [15][16] - The possibility of Microsoft surpassing Nvidia as the world's largest company by 2030 is plausible, given its lower price-to-sales ratio of 13 compared to Nvidia's 25 [15][19]

Summary of Cisco Systems Inc Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO.O) - **Industry**: Telecom & Networking Equipment - **Market Cap**: $280,765 million - **Current Stock Price**: $70.40 - **Price Target**: Increased from $70.00 to $73.00 Key Financial Highlights - **FQ4 Earnings**: Reported non-GAAP revenue of $14.7 billion and EPS of $0.99, exceeding expectations of $14.6 billion and $0.97 respectively [10] - **Product Orders Growth**: Achieved 7% year-over-year growth in product orders, surpassing the expected 5% [3][7] - **AI Orders**: Recorded $800 million in AI webscale orders for the quarter, up from $500 million in the previous quarter, totaling over $2 billion for FY25 [7][8] - **Networking Segment**: Strong performance with double-digit growth in networking product orders, despite limited contribution from the Cat9K refresh cycle [8][10] Segment Performance - **Security Segment**: Grew by 9% year-over-year, below the expected 17%, with revenue of $1,952 million compared to the estimate of $2,095 million [8][10] - **Public Sector**: Orders declined by 6% year-over-year, indicating ongoing weakness in this area [8][10] - **Networking Strength**: The networking segment's growth is expected to continue with the upcoming Cat9K refresh cycle, which is anticipated to drive multi-year growth [8][10] Future Outlook - **FY26 Guidance**: Management maintains a top-line growth estimate of 5%, aligning with street estimates, with Q1 guidance suggesting approximately 6.5% year-over-year growth [9][10] - **Potential Risks**: The company faces risks from macroeconomic uncertainties and potential changes in tariffs, which could impact growth [11][12] Investment Thesis - **Overweight Rating**: The stock is rated as Overweight, with a price target of $73, reflecting an 18x multiple on a projected FY26 EPS of $4.03 [11][13] - **Bull Case Drivers**: Future multiple expansion is contingent on acceleration in security and AI opportunities, particularly in sovereign and enterprise sectors [7][11] - **Splunk Integration**: The acquisition of Splunk is expected to provide long-term growth opportunities, although immediate expectations are minimal [18][30] Additional Insights - **Gross Margins**: Non-GAAP gross margins were reported at 68.4%, benefiting from reduced tariff impacts [10] - **Order Growth**: Management has not observed any significant pull-forward in demand, which bodes well for the second half of the calendar year [8][10] - **Market Dynamics**: The networking market is expected to grow positively, supported by the Cat9K refresh and modernization efforts ahead of AI integration [18][30] Conclusion Cisco Systems Inc is positioned for continued growth, particularly in its networking segment, with strong performance in AI orders. However, challenges in the security segment and public sector demand highlight areas of concern. The company's strategic focus on AI and networking modernization, along with the integration of Splunk, presents a favorable long-term outlook.

Market Valuation & Earnings Season - Market multiples are considered high but justified by the market's resilience and strong corporate performance [1][2] - Approximately 80% of companies have exceeded EPS expectations, and 70% have surpassed revenue forecasts, indicating corporate growth supports current valuations [2] AI Investment & Future Technology - AI is seen as a significant driver for market growth over the next 5 to 10 years, influencing areas like quantum computing [3][4] - Major tech companies like Microsoft and Amazon are heavily investing in AI co-pilots and cloud AI services, suggesting future revenue expansion in these areas [4] - Investment in hardware by companies like Microsoft and Alphabet signals a focus on future technologies beyond AI, such as supercomputing and quantum computing, with potential 30% to 35% CAGR [5] Quantum Computing - Pure quantum computing companies are experiencing substantial revenue growth, with IonQ reporting an 80% increase and D-Wave a 500% increase [6] - These quantum computing companies are becoming more commercial, demonstrating tangible results and value [6][7] Defiance ETF - Defiance ETF's name originates from the founder's family history, specifically their heroic rescue of Jews during the war [8]