NXP Investor Presentation Fourth Quarter 2025 February 2026 | Public | NXP and the NXP logo are trademarks of NXP B.V. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © 2024 NXP B.V. Forward Looking Statements + + This document includes forward-looking statements which include statements regarding NXP's business strategy, financial condition, results of operations, market data, as well as any other statements which are not historical facts. By their nature, forward-looking st ...

Summary of Key Points from the Investor Presentation on AI Semi Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Semiconductor industry, particularly AI semiconductors, including TPU, GPU, and memory sectors [6][9] - **Market Outlook**: Attractive industry view for Greater China Technology Semiconductors [2] Core Insights - **Top Investment Ideas**: - **Overweight (OW)**: TSMC (Top Pick), SMIC, Aspeed, MediaTek, Alchip, GUC, KYEC, ASE, FOCI, ASMPT, AllRing [6] - **Memory Sector**: Winbond (Top Pick), Phison, Nanya Tech, APMemory, GigaDevice, Macronix [6] - **Non-AI Focus**: Realtek, USI in smartphone/glasses sector [6] - **Long-term Demand Drivers**: - **Tech Inflation**: Rising costs in wafer, OSAT, and memory are expected to create margin headwinds for chip designers into 2026 [6] - **AI Cannibalization**: AI is expected to replace some human jobs, leading to demand weakness and prioritization of AI semiconductors over non-AI semiconductors [6] - **Tech Diffusion**: AI semiconductor demand is reaccelerating due to generative AI, expanding into various verticals like robotics and AI glasses [6] - **China AI Demand**: DeepSeek is driving inferencing AI demand, raising questions about the sufficiency of domestic GPUs [6] Financial Metrics and Valuation - **Valuation Comparison**: - TSMC's current price is 1,805.0 TWD with a target of 2,088.0 TWD, indicating a 16% upside [7] - UMC's current price is 68.4 TWD with a target of 52.5 TWD, indicating a 23% downside [7] - SMIC's current price is 76.7 HKD with a target of 80.0 HKD, indicating a 4% upside [7] - **P/E Ratios**: - TSMC's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 27.2 in 2025 to 16.1 in 2027 [7] - UMC's P/E ratio is projected to remain stable around 20.8 to 18.0 from 2025 to 2027 [7] Market Dynamics - **Semi Cycle**: AI semiconductors are expected to outperform broader semiconductor growth, with non-AI semiconductor growth projected at only 10% year-over-year in 2024 [12] - **Inventory Trends**: A decrease in inventory days historically correlates with an increase in the semiconductor stock index [15] - **Memory Prices**: Memory stock prices are seen as leading indicators for logic semiconductors, with an attractive view on the industry [16] Additional Insights - **Capex Trends**: Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are expected to increase capital expenditures significantly, with a 65% year-over-year increase noted in 3Q25 [52] - **AI Semiconductor Market Size**: The global semiconductor market size is projected to reach US$1 trillion by 2030, with cloud AI semiconductor total addressable market (TAM) expected to grow to US$235 billion by 2025 [85][91] - **NVIDIA's Influence**: NVIDIA's AI GPU revenue is a significant driver of growth in the semiconductor sector, with implications for other players in the market [12][19] This summary encapsulates the key points from the investor presentation, highlighting the semiconductor industry's current landscape, investment opportunities, and financial metrics.

Summary of Key Points from Morgan Stanley Research on Global Semiconductors Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **semiconductor industry**, particularly in Europe, highlighting key debates and top picks for investment in 2026 [6][9][19]. Core Insights and Arguments - **DRAM Pricing Trends**: Year-over-year (YoY) DRAM pricing is expected to increase into the first half of 2026, indicating a recovery in the memory market [6][43]. - **Memory Inventory Normalization**: The memory inventory levels are normalizing, which is a positive sign for the semiconductor supply chain [9][43]. - **Performance Comparison**: ASML has outperformed DRAM companies like Samsung Electronics, Micron, and SK Hynix from 2010 to 2012, suggesting a potential investment opportunity in ASML [13][16]. - **Investment Recommendations**: - **Top Picks**: - **Samsung Electronics**: Expected to benefit from a better commodity cycle driven by AI and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market share gains, with a price target of 170,000 KRW, representing a 14% upside [18]. - **SK Hynix**: Similar benefits from the AI-driven commodity cycle, with a price target of 840,000 KRW, indicating a 13% upside [18]. - **ASML Holding NV**: Anticipated to benefit from increased EUV layer count, with a price target of 1,400 EUR, suggesting a 25% upside [18]. - **Market Dynamics**: The semiconductor industry is experiencing tech inflation, which is expected to impact demand for tech products due to rising costs in wafers, OSAT, and memory [19][57]. Additional Important Insights - **AI Impact**: The ripple effect of AI is expected to significantly influence memory demand, with companies like Winbond and Phison identified as top picks in the memory sector [19]. - **Long-term Demand Drivers**: The report highlights that AI cannibalization and tech diffusion are key long-term demand drivers, with generative AI proliferating across various verticals [19]. - **Cloud Capex**: Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are projected to spend nearly **$632 billion** on cloud capital expenditures in 2026, indicating robust demand for semiconductors [61]. - **NAND and NOR Flash Shortages**: The report anticipates shortages in NAND and NOR flash memory due to increased demand from AI storage solutions [51][57]. Conclusion - The semiconductor industry, particularly in Europe, is poised for growth driven by AI advancements and normalization of memory inventory. Investment opportunities are highlighted in companies like Samsung, SK Hynix, and ASML, with a focus on the long-term impacts of AI and cloud computing on semiconductor demand.

Core Insights - Google stock (Alphabet) has shown significant rallies, achieving over 30% gains in less than two months multiple times, particularly in 2010 and 2024, with two instances of over 50% rallies in 2025, indicating potential for considerable upside for investors [2] Catalyst Summaries - **Catalyst 1: Cloud AI Backlog Converting to Revenue and Margin Expansion** - Google Cloud is expected to accelerate revenue growth beyond consensus estimates of 30%+, with operating margins projected to rise toward 30% from 23.7%. The cloud backlog increased by 46% sequentially to $155 billion in Q3 2025, and operating income soared 85% year-over-year [9][10] - **Catalyst 2: Gemini-Driven Monetization in Core Services** - The Gemini app has exceeded 650 million monthly active users, with search queries tripling in a quarter. New revenue sources are anticipated from premium AI features in Search and Workspace, enhancing user engagement and ad pricing power [9][10] - **Catalyst 3: Expansion of Aggressive Capital Return Program** - There is a significant increase in buyback authorization or dividends expected, which will boost EPS growth and attract new investors. The trailing twelve months free cash flow reached $73.6 billion, and a recent dividend program initiation indicates a shift in capital allocation strategy [9][10] Financial Performance - Revenue growth for Alphabet is reported at 13.4% for the last twelve months, with a three-year average of 11.0%. The company has a free cash flow margin of nearly 19.1% and an operating margin of 32.2% for the last twelve months. The stock trades at a P/E multiple of 32.4 [10]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on Asia's logic semiconductor firms, with a robust growth forecast driven by cloud AI applications. Non-memory semiconductor revenue is expected to grow by **25% YoY in 2026**, following a **16% growth in 2025** [2][9]. Core Company Insights TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) 1. **Revenue Growth**: TSMC is projected to achieve **25% revenue growth** in USD terms for 2026, supported by strong demand for cloud AI products, particularly GPUs and ASICs [3][10]. 2. **Capex Increase**: Capital expenditures are expected to rise to **US$50 billion** in 2026, up from **US$42 billion** in 2025, to support leading-edge technology migrations [12][18]. 3. **Capacity Expansion**: TSMC's N3 capacity is forecasted to reach **170kwpm** by the end of 2026, up from **120kwpm** at the end of 2025, with tight utilization expected throughout the year [15][16]. 4. **Cloud AI Demand**: Cloud AI is anticipated to account for **35-40%** of N3 demand in 2026, with significant contributions from major clients like Nvidia and Google [16][18]. MediaTek 1. **TPU Production**: MediaTek's TPU efforts are expected to ramp up significantly, with sales projected to reach **US$0.8 billion** in 2026 and **US$4 billion** in 2027, driven by strong demand and potential upside in volume expectations [3][23]. 2. **Market Position**: The company is positioned to benefit from the growing market for cloud AI, with expectations of shipping around **1 million units** of TPU in 2027, with potential for much higher volumes [23][25]. Advanced Packaging and Testing 1. **CoWoS Capacity**: The industry is expected to see an **85% YoY increase** in CoWoS capacity in 2026, with TSMC's CoWoS capacity projected to reach **110kwpm** by Q3 2026 [4][28]. 2. **Technological Advancements**: Advanced packaging technologies are gaining traction, with Intel's EMIB also expected to ramp up production in H226 [4][28]. Stock Recommendations - Top picks include **TSMC**, **MediaTek**, and **ASE**, with buy ratings on several other companies such as **Aspeed**, **Hon Precision**, and **GlobalWafers**. Neutral ratings are given to **Vanguard**, **Realtek**, and **SMIC** [6]. Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The semiconductor market is experiencing a shift, with mature foundries and OSAT expected to outgrow fabless companies in 2026 due to improved competition and pricing [5]. - **Silicon Wafer Supply**: Supply and demand for silicon wafers are expected to stabilize, with a more favorable pricing outlook despite some persistent oversupply [5]. - **Potential Risks**: Rising memory BOM costs could impact end demand for smartphones and PCs in 2026, posing a risk to overall market growth [5]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call, highlighting the growth potential and strategic directions of major players in the semiconductor industry.

Summary of Key Points from the Investor Presentation on Semiconductor Industry Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is currently viewed as attractive, particularly in the context of AI technology and its applications in various sectors [3][18] - The focus is on AI semiconductors, with both logic and memory segments being highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [7][21] Core Insights - **Top Investment Picks**: - AI: TSMC (Top Pick), SMIC, Aspeed, MediaTek, Alchip, GUC, KYEC, ASE, FOCI, ASMPT, AllRing - Memory: Winbond (Top Pick), Phison, Nanya Tech, APMemory, GigaDevice, Macronix - Non-AI: Realtek, USI for smartphone/glasses, NAURA Tech, AMEC for China WFE [7] - **Long-term Demand Drivers**: - **Tech Inflation**: Rising costs in wafer, OSAT, and memory are expected to create margin pressures for chip designers into 2026 [7] - **AI Cannibalization**: AI is anticipated to replace some human jobs, leading to demand weakness in certain sectors. The semiconductor supply chain is prioritizing AI semiconductors over non-AI [7] - **Tech Diffusion**: The demand for AI semiconductors is expected to accelerate due to generative AI, impacting various verticals like robotics and AI glasses [7] - **China AI Demand**: The introduction of DeepSeek is expected to trigger demand for inferencing AI, although there are concerns about the sufficiency of domestic GPU supply [7] Financial Metrics and Valuation - **Valuation Comparison**: - TSMC's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 25.7 in 2025 to 19.4 in 2026, with EPS growth expected at 44% in 2025 and 32% in 2026 [8] - UMC's P/E ratio is expected to remain stable, with a slight decrease in EPS growth from -12% in 2025 to 2% in 2026 [8] - SMIC shows a significant increase in ROAE from 4% in 2025 to 9% in 2026, indicating potential recovery [8] Market Dynamics - **Semi Cycle**: The logic semi foundry utilization is currently at 70-80% in the first half of 2026, indicating that the market is still recovering [13] - **Non-AI Semi Growth**: Excluding NVIDIA's AI GPU revenue, non-AI semiconductor growth was slow at only 10% year-over-year in 2024 [14] - **Inventory Trends**: A decrease in inventory days historically correlates with an increase in the semiconductor stock index, suggesting a potential positive outlook for the sector [17] Additional Insights - **Memory Prices**: Memory stock prices are seen as leading indicators for logic semiconductors, reinforcing the attractive view on Greater China technology semiconductors [18] - **Investment Thesis**: Regardless of whether AI GPU or AI ASIC technologies prevail, TSMC is positioned to benefit as a major foundry supplier [21] - **Capex Trends**: TSMC's capital expenditure is projected to be between $43 billion and $55 billion for 2026, reflecting ongoing investments in AI semiconductor capabilities [27] Conclusion - The semiconductor industry, particularly in the AI segment, presents significant investment opportunities. Key players like TSMC and memory manufacturers are expected to benefit from ongoing technological advancements and market dynamics. Investors should closely monitor the evolving landscape, including supply chain developments and pricing trends, to capitalize on potential growth.

Core Insights - CoreWeave (CRWV) and Amazon (AMZN) are significant players in AI-focused cloud infrastructure, with CRWV specializing in GPU-optimized compute for AI workloads and AWS providing large-scale AI and high-performance cloud services [1][2] Market Overview - The global cloud AI market is projected to grow from $102.09 billion in 2025 to $589.22 billion by 2032, reflecting a CAGR of 28.5% [3] CoreWeave (CRWV) Highlights - CoreWeave has transformed from a niche GPU provider to a leading AI cloud service, achieving record revenue growth of 134% and a revenue backlog exceeding $55 billion [5][8] - The company has expanded its active power footprint by 120 MW to approximately 590 MW and contracted power capacity to 2.9 GW, with over 1 GW of contracted capacity available for future sales [6] - Major partnerships include a multi-year deal with Meta worth up to $14.2 billion and an expanded partnership with OpenAI totaling about $22.4 billion [7] - CoreWeave's revenue outlook for 2025 has been revised down to $5.05–$5.15 billion due to supply constraints and project delays [10] Amazon (AMZN) Highlights - AWS revenues increased by 20.2% year-over-year to $33 billion, representing 18.3% of Amazon's third-quarter sales [12] - AWS is rapidly expanding its power capacity, adding over 3.8 GW in the past year and planning to double its capacity by 2027 [14] - Amazon's international expansion is enhancing long-term growth potential, particularly in emerging markets [15] - Despite strong growth, Amazon faces financial pressures due to heavy investments in AI and data center expansion, with expected cash CapEx reaching around $125 billion in 2025 [16] Performance and Valuation - Over the past six months, CRWV shares have declined by 28.3%, while AMZN shares have increased by 12.6% [17] - Valuation metrics indicate that CRWV is overvalued with a Price/Book ratio of 9.27X compared to AMZN's 6.54X [21] - Analysts have revised earnings estimates upward for AMZN, while CRWV has seen a downward revision [22][24] Investment Considerations - AMZN is positioned favorably due to fast-growing AWS demand and significant infrastructure expansion, while CRWV is recognized for its high growth potential in the AI sector but faces challenges related to capital needs and customer concentration [25][26]

Investment Rating - The report reiterates a Buy rating on TSMC as the leading Cloud/Edge AI foundry [4] - ASE is also rated as a Buy due to its position as a key beneficiary of advanced packaging and testing [4] - GPTC is upgraded to a Buy with a new price target of NT$1,800, implying a 35% upside [4][22] Core Insights - TSMC's N3 capacity is forecasted to reach 170kwpm by the end of 2026, up from 120kwpm at the end of 2025 [1] - Cloud AI is expected to account for 35-40% of N3 demand in 2026, with smartphones and PCs making up 60-65% [1] - CoWoS capacity is anticipated to be tight in 2026, with TSMC likely to accelerate capacity expansion [2] - Demand forecasts for CoWoS have been raised significantly for Nvidia (13% increase), AMD (56% increase), and Broadcom [3] Summary by Sections N3 Foundry Supply-Demand Analysis - TSMC's N3 capacity is projected to increase to 170kwpm by end-2026 from 120kwpm at end-2025 [1] - Cloud AI products are expected to represent 35-40% of N3 demand in 2026, with other devices accounting for 60-65% [1] - N3 utilization is expected to be tight, particularly in Q4 2026 [1] CoWoS Capacity and Demand - CoWoS capacity is forecasted to reach 110kwpm by Q3 2026, with potential upside in late 2026 [2] - Demand for CoWoS from Nvidia is expected to reach 3 million units in 2026, with AMD's demand forecast raised by 56% [3] - Broadcom's CoWoS demand is projected to increase to 260-280k units in 2026, up from 90-100k in 2025 [3] Stock Recommendations - TSMC's capex for 2026/27 is raised to US$50bn/52bn from US$46bn/50bn, with a price target increase to NT$1,800 [4] - ASE is highlighted as a key beneficiary of advanced packaging and testing [4] - GPTC's long-term earnings CAGR is forecasted at 20% over 2027-29, with a significant market share in advanced packaging [22]

Summary of TSMC Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) - **Industry**: Semiconductors Key Points Capital Expenditure and Growth Estimates - TSMC raised its capital expenditure (capex) estimates for 2026 and 2027 to **US$50 billion** and **US$52 billion**, respectively, from **US$46 billion** and **US$50 billion** previously [2][5] - The increase is driven by the demand for cloud AI and the need for capacity expansion to support this demand [2][3] - TSMC plans to expand its N3 capacity to **170kwpm** by the end of 2026, up from **120kwpm** at the end of 2025 [2] Sales Growth Projections - TSMC's sales growth for 2026 is projected to increase from **22%** to **25%**, with an expected growth of **28%** in 2027 driven by cloud AI [3] - Factors contributing to this growth include: - Migration of cloud AI to N3 with higher wafer prices - Strong ramp-up of new AI product generations from companies like Nvidia, Google, and Amazon [3] Geopolitical Expansion - TSMC is accelerating its expansion in Arizona to align with U.S. government priorities for reshoring, particularly for cloud AI production [4] - The company may upgrade part of its first phase capacity from N4 to N3 in 2026 to support local production [4] Financial Performance and Valuation - TSMC's EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been raised by **4%** and **7%**, respectively [5] - The price target has been increased from **NT$1,700** to **NT$1,800**, maintaining a Buy rating [5][7] - Revenue projections for 2026 and 2027 are **NT$4,658 billion** and **NT$5,961 billion**, respectively, reflecting a year-over-year growth of **23%** and **28%** [18] Operating Metrics - TSMC's revenue for 2025 is estimated at **NT$3,781 billion**, with a gross margin of **59.4%** and an operating margin of **49.9%** [20] - The company is expected to maintain a strong profitability profile with a net profit margin of **44.1%** in 2025 [18] Client Demand and Capacity Analysis - TSMC's N3 capacity is expected to meet increasing demand from cloud AI, with significant contributions from major clients like Nvidia and Google [11][12] - The demand for N3 capacity from cloud AI is projected to grow significantly, indicating a robust market for TSMC's advanced technology [11] Market Position - TSMC holds a significant market cap of **NT$36,178 billion** (approximately **US$1,160 billion**) and has a free float of **87%** [7] - The company is positioned as a major foundry provider for U.S. production, leveraging its scale and technology [4] Additional Insights - TSMC's utilization rate is projected to improve, with a target of **89%** by 2027 [10] - The company is expected to maintain a strong return on invested capital (ROIC) of **62.2%** in 2027 [6] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from TSMC's conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, financial outlook, and market positioning in the semiconductor industry.

Financial Performance & Growth Strategy - NXP aims for high single-digit organic revenue growth and gross margin expansion above 60%[10, 124] - The company plans to return 100% of excess free cash flow (FCF) to its owners[10, 124] - NXP targets doubling non-GAAP EPS by 2030+[11, 125] - NXP's revenue is projected to grow from $12.6 billion in 2024 to approximately $16.0 billion in 2027, with a CAGR of 6-10%[36] Market Positioning & Opportunities - Automotive and Industrial & IoT sectors are expected to drive growth at the intelligent edge, within a $1.3 trillion semiconductor market opportunity[16, 17] - Automotive revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8-12% from 2024 to 2027, reaching ~$9.5 billion[42, 51] - Industrial & IoT revenue is projected to increase at a CAGR of 8-12% from 2024 to 2027, reaching ~$3.1 billion[48, 51] Financial Results (Q3 2025) - Q3 2025 revenue was $3.173 billion, an increase of 8% quarter-over-quarter but a decrease of 2% year-over-year[75] - Non-GAAP gross profit for Q3 2025 was $1.810 billion, resulting in a gross margin of 57.0%[78, 117] - Non-GAAP operating profit for Q3 2025 was $1.071 billion, yielding an operating margin of 33.8%[78, 117] Capital Return & Debt - NXP's cumulative capital return from 2018 to 2024 was $19.2 billion, representing 109% of non-GAAP FCF[91] - The company's net debt stood at $8.281 billion as of Q3 2025, with a net leverage of 1.8x[94]