Digital Turbine (NasdaqCM:APPS) FY Conference March 23, 2026 06:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsBill Stone - CEOLauren Dillard - CFORemco Westermann - CEOConference Call ParticipantsRohit Kulkarni - Managing Director and Senior Research AnalystRohit KulkarniAll right. We are going to go ahead and get started. Thank you for joining us. My name is Rohit Kulkarni. I'm the Internet research analyst here at Roth Capital Partners. Very excited to host three C-level execs here today. I'll let them do the intros. They ...

Key Takeaways The Trade Desk pushes into CTV plumbing via Ventura, OpenAds, and OpenPath to improve transparency and buying.TTD uses Kokai and Agentic AI for forecasting, pricing, and measurement, with nearly all clients on Kokai.TTD faces risks from walled gardens, CPG and auto weakness, and margin pressure from AI and data investments.The Trade Desk (TTD) is pushing beyond demand-side execution and into the plumbing of connected TV (“CTV”). The goal is clear: make streaming inventory more measurable, more ...

Core Insights - The Trade Desk (TTD) is positioned at the forefront of the shift towards connected TV (CTV) in digital advertising, with a focus on measurable and planned budgets [1][10] - The key challenge for TTD is whether advancements in product measurement and supply-chain initiatives can counterbalance softness in certain advertising categories and the timing of margins [1][10] CTV Trends and Product Development - CTV trends favor objective, biddable buying, which aligns with TTD's strategy to attract advertisers [2] - In the latest quarter, video, including CTV, accounted for approximately 50% of TTD's business, indicating CTV's role as a stable growth engine as advertisers shift budgets from less measurable channels [3][11] - TTD is enhancing its product offerings with AI tools like Kokai and Agentic AI to improve forecasting, pricing, and outcome-based measurement, which are crucial for maintaining client commitment [4][5] Supply Chain Transparency Initiatives - TTD is implementing initiatives for supply-chain clarity, such as OpenPath, which aims to simplify setup and expand data access with a low publisher fee [7] - OpenAds is introduced as a transparent auction environment for publishers, with early partners indicating a strong interest in enhancing transparency in the digital media supply chain [8] - The Ventura Ecosystem aims to optimize programmatic advertising in CTV by connecting global television operating systems and streaming platforms [9] Financial Performance and Market Dynamics - TTD's growth is influenced by a mix of strong and weak performance across different verticals, with CTV and video being strong drivers, while consumer packaged goods and automotive sectors show softness [11][12] - The company anticipates that adjusted EBITDA margins for 2026 will align with 2025 levels, reflecting ongoing investments in AI and infrastructure [14] - TTD's balance sheet is robust, ending 2025 with approximately $1.3 billion in cash and no debt, allowing for financial flexibility amid mixed demand [16] Capital Management - TTD has been active in share repurchases, buying back $423 million in shares in the fourth quarter, with an additional $350 million authorized for repurchase [17] - While share repurchases can signal confidence, they do not eliminate risks associated with demand cycles, particularly in light of ongoing category softness [18]

Industry Overview - The global digital advertising market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.4% from 2026 to 2035, indicating its attractiveness as a long-term growth market in the technology sector [1]. Company Profiles The Trade Desk (TTD) - TTD operates a leading demand-side platform (DSP) focused on data-driven advertising, facing significant competition from major players like Meta, Apple, Google, and Amazon [2][5]. - TTD's total operating costs surged 17% year over year to $457 million, driven by investments in enhancing platform capabilities [6]. - The company expects revenues of at least $840 million for Q4 2025, with a projected year-over-year revenue growth rate of 18.5% [9]. - TTD's AI-powered Kokai platform is used by 85% of its clients, strengthening its competitive position [8][11]. PubMatic (PUBM) - PUBM is a sell-side platform that helps publishers monetize their inventory, with a focus on connected TV (CTV) and retail media growth [2][10]. - PUBM reported over 50% year-over-year growth in CTV revenues in Q3, capitalizing on the shift of approximately $155 billion in linear television ad spend to digital formats [12]. - The company anticipates fourth-quarter revenues between $73 million and $77 million, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $19 million and $21 million [16]. - PUBM's revenues from emerging revenue streams grew over 80% year over year, contributing 10% of total revenues in Q3 [14]. Competitive Landscape - Both TTD and PUBM are experiencing growth in CTV and retail media but face rising competition and macroeconomic risks [11]. - TTD's focus on geographic expansion and AI integration presents both opportunities and challenges, particularly with regulatory changes [7][8]. - PUBM's reliance on major DSP clients poses risks, as evidenced by a recent revision in bidding approach affecting its top line [17]. Share Performance & Valuation - Over the past month, TTD and PUBM's shares have declined by 25.8% and 14.7%, respectively [20]. - TTD's shares are trading at a forward price/sales ratio of 3.55X, while PUBM's is at 1.09X, indicating a higher valuation for TTD [21]. Analyst Estimates - Analysts have kept estimates unchanged for both TTD and PUBM for the current fiscal year, indicating stability in expectations [22][24]. - TTD currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), while PUBM has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting PUBM may be a better pick at the moment [25].

Core Insights - The Trade Desk (TTD) has experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping 26.7% over the past month, reflecting investor concerns about its performance in the digital ad tech space [1][7] - The broader Zacks Internet Services industry has also faced challenges, with a 4% decline, while the Computer & Technology sector and S&P 500 have lost 2.9% and 0.9%, respectively, indicating a widespread downturn in the digital advertising ecosystem [4] Company-Specific Challenges - TTD's recent sell-off is attributed to rising costs, slowing revenue growth, macroeconomic volatility, and increasing competition [6][8] - Total operating costs (excluding stock-based compensation) surged 17% year over year to $457 million, driven by investments in enhancing platform capabilities [8] - The company faces macro-driven ad spend caution, which could pressure revenue growth due to reduced programmatic demand amid higher interest rates and geopolitical instability [9] Competitive Landscape - TTD's strongest long-term growth driver, Connected TV (CTV), is becoming increasingly competitive, with rivals like Amazon expanding their demand-side platform (DSP) business [10] - Competition from major players such as Meta Platforms, Apple, Google, and Amazon, as well as smaller companies like Magnite and PubMatic, is intensifying in the CTV and retail media spaces [10] - Regulatory changes, including the deprecation of cookies and tightening data-privacy laws, present ongoing challenges for TTD [11] Long-Term Catalysts - Despite current challenges, TTD has several long-term growth catalysts, including the rise of CTV, expanding retail media networks, and the adoption of its AI-powered platform, Kokai, which is used by 85% of clients [14] - Kokai has demonstrated significant performance improvements, delivering 26% better cost per acquisition, 58% better cost per unique reach, and a 94% better click-through rate compared to its previous platform [14] - The acceleration of retail media is driven by demand for measurable outcomes, with TTD's platform integrating retail data with identity solutions for precise targeting [16] Valuation Metrics - TTD's stock is currently trading at a price/book multiple of 5.03X, compared to the industry's 7.84X, indicating a relative undervaluation [18] - Competitors such as Amazon, Magnite, and PubMatic are trading at multiples of 5.47X, 2.01X, and 1.23X, respectively [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article identifies three stocks that have the potential to double in value in 2026, highlighting their growth prospects and market positioning. Group 1: Nebius - Nebius was spun out of Yandex and focuses on cloud computing, similar to Google Cloud [3][4] - The company is expanding its data center footprint and renting out computing capacity, primarily using Nvidia GPUs for AI workloads [4] - Nebius expects an annual run rate of $7 billion to $9 billion in revenue for 2026, up from a current ARR of $551 million, indicating significant growth potential [6][7] Group 2: The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk operates a buy-side ad platform and experienced its slowest growth quarter in Q3, but the industry is still growing, particularly with connected TV [8][10] - The stock trades at an attractive valuation of 18 times forward earnings, which could lead to a doubling of the stock price if growth resumes [11] - The absence of political spending headwinds in 2026 may facilitate a return to growth for The Trade Desk [10] Group 3: MercadoLibre - MercadoLibre is the leading e-commerce platform in Latin America and has developed a fintech division to enhance payment access [12][13] - The company is projected to achieve 29% revenue growth in 2026, with potential for even higher growth based on historical performance [15] - Despite a 20% decline from its all-time high, MercadoLibre's strong growth trajectory suggests a high chance of doubling in 2026 [15][16]

Industry Overview - The global digital advertising market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 15.4% from 2025 to 2030, indicating its attractiveness as a long-term growth market in technology [1]. Company Analysis: The Trade Desk (TTD) - TTD is a leading independent demand-side platform (DSP) in digital advertising, focusing solely on advertising, which allows for concentrated efforts on product innovation and customer relationships [4]. - TTD has a strong customer retention rate, consistently above 95% as of Q3 2025 [4]. - Connected TV (CTV) is a significant growth driver for TTD, with management expecting decision-based CTV buying to become the standard model [5]. - Strategic partnerships with major companies like Disney, NBCU, and Roku enhance TTD's market position, with video advertising comprising over 50% of its total business [6]. - TTD's financial health is robust, with $1.4 billion in cash and no debt, allowing for continued innovation and market expansion [7]. - The company is investing in AI-driven platforms like Kokai, which has shown significant performance improvements compared to previous models [8]. - Despite its strengths, TTD faces intense competition from major players like Meta, Apple, Google, and Amazon, which control significant inventory and user data [9]. Company Analysis: Amazon (AMZN) - Amazon's advertising business generated $17.6 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting a 22% year-over-year increase, supported by its full-funnel advertising offerings [12]. - Amazon DSP leverages extensive first-party data, enabling advertisers to optimize their campaigns effectively [13]. - Partnerships with platforms like Roku and Netflix, along with integrations with Spotify and SiriusXM, enhance Amazon's advertising reach [14]. - Live sports on Prime Video are a key growth area for Amazon's ad business, with strong advertiser interest noted for upcoming years [15]. - AI is increasingly integral to Amazon's advertising strategy, with new tools designed to streamline the creative process [16]. - Amazon's advertising segment is still a small portion of its overall revenue, indicating significant growth potential, while its diversified business model provides stability [17]. Valuation and Performance Comparison - TTD shares have declined by 4.6% over the past month, while AMZN shares have increased by 0.5% [20]. - Both companies are considered overvalued, with TTD trading at a forward P/E ratio of 17.84X and AMZN at 29.02X [21][23]. - Analysts have made slight upward revisions to TTD's earnings estimates, while AMZN's estimates have been revised upward by 4.5% for the current fiscal year [24][25]. - TTD holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), whereas AMZN has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting a stronger investment case for Amazon [27][28].

Core Insights - MNTN has been recognized as a 2025 Inc. Power Partner Award winner, highlighting its role in supporting entrepreneurs and aiding company growth in the B2B sector [1][2]. Company Overview - MNTN is a technology platform focused on performance marketing for Connected TV, making television advertising accessible and measurable for businesses [2][7]. - The company aims to simplify TV advertising, allowing brands to generate traffic, leads, and revenue effectively [4][7]. Recognition and Impact - The Inc. Power Partner Awards honor B2B organizations that excel in assisting startups and entrepreneurs across various business aspects, including hiring, compliance, and fundraising [3][4]. - MNTN's recognition reflects its commitment to helping small businesses navigate the complexities of advertising and marketing [4][5]. Innovations and Developments - MNTN has introduced QuickFrame AI, a creative orchestration engine that enables marketers to create complete TV commercials in minutes, enhancing the efficiency of ad production [5][14]. - The company has expanded its Partner Program to include over 40 leading performance marketing agencies, further solidifying its position in the market [5]. Market Position - MNTN's technology has allowed 97% of its brands to engage in television advertising for the first time, indicating a significant shift in the advertising landscape [5]. - The company continues to innovate with advancements in targeting technology and attribution systems, aiming to redefine advertising possibilities on television [5].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a third consecutive quarter of results that met or exceeded expectations, driven by the Scripps Sports strategy and strong sales execution [4] - Local media division revenue decreased by 27% due to the absence of political advertising revenue compared to the prior year, while core advertising revenue increased by nearly 2% [6] - The company reported a loss of $0.55 per share, which included various costs that increased the loss by a total of $0.15 per share [10] - Net leverage improved to 4.6 times at the end of Q3, down from 6 times in Q2 of the previous year [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Local media segment profit was nearly $53 million compared to $161 million in Q3 of the previous year [6] - Scripps Networks revenue was approximately flat at $201 million year-over-year, with connected TV revenue up 41% [7][8] - Scripps Networks' segment profit was $53 million, with a segment margin of 27% [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects local media division revenue to decline by about 30% in Q4, while core revenue is anticipated to increase by about 10% [6] - Scripps Networks' revenue is expected to decrease in the low double-digit range for Q4 due to various factors, including a lack of political revenue and lower upfront advertising [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on optimizing its portfolio through station swaps and sales, with recent transactions yielding strong valuations [4][22] - The Scripps Sports strategy has been a significant driver of revenue growth, particularly in women's sports and partnerships with various leagues [14][16] - The company is pursuing aggressive distribution on streaming services, projecting connected TV revenue to exceed $120 million in 2025 [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's strategies, highlighting strong performance in sports and connected TV revenue streams [13] - The upcoming midterm elections are expected to yield record spending across the advertising ecosystem, positioning the company well for future growth [22] - Management acknowledged challenges in the advertising environment but remains optimistic about the potential for recovery as economic uncertainties are resolved [72] Other Important Information - The company has been actively managing expenses, resulting in improved margins and a focus on fiscal discipline [20] - The Scripps Transformation Office is leveraging technology and AI to enhance operational efficiency and drive growth [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for further asset sales? - Management indicated there are still significant opportunities for optimizing the portfolio through buying, selling, and swapping stations [26] Question: Can you elaborate on the impact of the government shutdown on revenue? - Management noted that the government shutdown has affected demand and buying from networks, particularly in the Medicare Advantage space [68] Question: How is the advertising environment compared to six months ago? - Management observed some strength in local advertising but noted challenges in the national ad marketplace, particularly in direct response pricing and pharmaceuticals [55][72] Question: What is the company's strategy regarding AI and cost efficiency? - Management expects to provide more information on the impact of technology and AI on operational efficiency in the upcoming year [78]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a positive operating income in Q3 for the first time since fiscal 2021 [12] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 is projected to be $145 million, the highest ever for the company [12] - EBITDA margins are expected to improve by 200 basis points year-over-year to approximately 8.4% for the full year [12] - The trailing 12-month free cash flow exceeded $440 million, indicating strong cash generation [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Platform revenue growth was reported at 17% year-over-year for Q3, with a guidance of 15% for Q4 [21][67] - Premium subscriptions are performing well, with new Tier 1 subscription services expected to launch in 2026 [11][30] - The company is focused on three key areas for platform revenue growth: enhancing the home screen, increasing ad demand, and growing subscription revenue [6][7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has a significant presence, with Roku being used in half of broadband households in the U.S. [8][41] - The advertising business is growing, with approximately 90% of advertisers on Ads Manager being new to Roku in Q3 [20] - The company is seeing strong performance in video advertising, growing faster than the U.S. OTT and digital ad marketplaces [63] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain double-digit platform revenue growth while increasing profitability in 2026 and beyond [6] - There is a focus on improving the home screen and user interface to enhance viewer engagement and monetization [9][27] - The company is investing in partnerships with major DSPs, including Amazon, to drive ad revenue growth [10][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the outlook for Q4 and 2026, citing strong growth drivers and successful monetization initiatives [6][22] - The company is optimistic about the potential of its new home screen and ad products to drive future revenue [27][28] - Management noted that the streaming sector remains robust and continues to grow, providing opportunities for the company [59] Other Important Information - The company has $2.3 billion in cash and short-term investments, indicating a strong financial position [12] - The company initiated a net share settlement program to offset about 40% of gross dilution [13] - The company is exploring opportunities to monetize its first-party data, including potential partnerships with LLMs [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Trends in the platform business and growth drivers for Q4 and 2026 - Management highlighted a very good outlook and confidence in maintaining double-digit platform revenue growth [6] Question: Capital allocation priorities and share buybacks - The company repurchased $500 million of stock and aims to offset 100% of share dilution over time [13] Question: Size and growth rates of third-party DSPs and Ads Manager - Management noted strong growth in Ads Manager and emphasized the importance of deepening integrations with DSPs [19] Question: New home screen's impact on engagement and monetization - The new home screen aims to enhance user experience and drive higher monetization through improved engagement [26] Question: Opportunities in sports content and centralized viewing experiences - Management sees significant opportunities in sports streaming and aims to simplify access for viewers [41][47] Question: ARPU growth expectations - Management expects ARPU to grow faster than platform revenue growth due to monetization initiatives [51] Question: Macro environment trends and advertising performance - Management reported positive trends in advertising and noted strong performance in video advertising [63][66] Question: Amazon DSP partnership and its potential impact - Management indicated strong customer interest in the Amazon DSP partnership, which is expected to ramp up into 2026 [72][74] Question: Self-serve business capabilities and long-term potential - Management confirmed that all necessary partnerships and technology are in place to scale the self-serve business [75] Question: Streaming hours performance and any concerns - Management clarified that slight de-sell in streaming hours is not concerning, as monetizable hours continue to grow [84]