Market Overview - A-shares continued to decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.18% to 3,340 points, marking a four-day losing streak[18] - U.S. markets rebounded significantly after a holiday, with the Dow Jones up 740 points (1.78%) and the S&P 500 rising 2.05%[11] - European markets also saw gains, with the Stoxx 600 index increasing by 0.37% amid positive economic data and trade negotiations[11] Economic Outlook - China's GDP is projected to grow by 5% in 2025, driven by fiscal expansion focused on consumption recovery and infrastructure investment[7] - The U.S. consumer confidence index saw its largest increase in four years, indicating a potential boost in economic activity[7] - The European Central Bank anticipates inflation to hover around 2% for the year, influenced by U.S. tariff impacts[7] Commodity and Currency Trends - International crude oil prices fell by 1% due to OPEC+ production expectations, with WTI at $60.89 per barrel[30] - Gold prices dropped by 1.9% to $3,300.4 per ounce, influenced by a stronger dollar and reduced safe-haven demand[30] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.6%, while the euro and pound both saw slight declines against the dollar[28] Investment Strategies - For the second half of 2025, focus on sectors with strong growth potential, such as technology and healthcare, particularly those benefiting from AI advancements[10] - Emphasis on high-dividend yielding assets in utilities and financial sectors as stable investment options[16] - The strategy includes a shift towards core assets and emerging industries, anticipating a bull market in Chinese equities starting in Q4 2025[21]

▍ Trump put：特朗普政府对即将实施的对等关税政策立场有所松动。 2月中旬，美国政府发布《对等贸易与关税备忘录》，宣布将对贸易伙伴实施对等关税。美国总 统特朗普随后宣布，自4月2日起将全面实施对等关税政策。然而，在美国对等关税全面加征日渐 迫近之时，特朗普于3月2 1日表示，虽不会为即将实施的关税政策设立豁免，但对等关税政策将 保留一定的"灵活性"。3月2 4日，特朗普进一步宣布，未来几天将对汽车、木材及芯片征收额外 关税，但其在全面对等关税征收的表述上有所缓和。特朗普表示，并非所有国家的关税都将在4 月2日施行，部分国家或将获得豁免，但仍将遵循对等原则。此前，欧盟对汽车进口征收1 0%的 关税，是美国乘用车进口税率2 . 5%的四倍。特朗普在宣布部分国家关税豁免时提及，欧盟已同意 将汽车关税降至2 . 5%。在临近对等关税政策实施之际，特朗普政府的关税政策立场较此前已出现 一定程度的松动，但仍需关注四月初美国政府贸易备忘录调查结果以及后续对等关税的实际执行 情况。此外，近期投资者也担忧联邦裁员/削减支出会对美国就业和消费造成较大的负面冲击。但 我们不排除经济走弱的迹象下，未来美国财政政策会出现一定的 ...