Company Overview - Alcoa is set to announce its earnings on July 16, 2025, with consensus earnings estimated at approximately $0.51 per share and revenues projected to increase by nearly 2% year-over-year [2] - The company has a current market capitalization of $7.9 billion and reported revenue of $13 billion over the past twelve months, with operating profits of $1.6 billion and net income of $860 million [3] Earnings Expectations - The earnings expectations are influenced by tariff disruptions, mixed performance among business units, and uncertain aluminum demand, slightly offset by strong alumina margins and effective internal cost management [2] - The Alumina segment is expected to remain robust due to steady demand and advantageous cost structures, while the Aluminum segment faces challenges from elevated costs and weak global pricing [2] Historical Performance - Over the last five years, Alcoa has documented 19 earnings data points, with positive one-day (1D) returns observed approximately 32% of the time, which declines to 25% over the last three years [5] - The median of the six positive returns is 3.1%, while the median of the thirteen negative returns is -5.4% [5]

Group 1 - Tesla's stock declined nearly 7% following CEO Elon Musk's announcement of forming a new political party, reflecting investor concerns [2] - The company is expected to report earnings of approximately $0.44 per share, a 15% decrease year-over-year, with revenues projected to fall by 11% to $22.7 billion [2] - Tesla delivered 384,122 vehicles in Q2, marking a 13.5% decrease from 443,956 units in the same quarter last year, indicating weakening demand in key markets [2] Group 2 - Tesla's market capitalization stands at $946 billion, with annual revenue reaching $96 billion and operational profits of $7.1 billion, resulting in a net income of $6.4 billion [3] - The company's gross margins were reported at 16.3% in Q1, down from 17.4% the previous year and significantly lower than the 25% margins achieved in prior years [2] Group 3 - Historical data shows that Tesla has had 20 earnings data points over the last five years, with 60% of one-day post-earnings returns being positive, though this percentage drops to 50% in the last three years [4] - The median of positive one-day returns is 4.2%, while the median of negative returns is -6.1% [4]

Group 1 - JB Hunt Transport Services (NASDAQ:JBHT) is scheduled to release its earnings report on July 15, 2025, with analysts projecting earnings of $1.32 per share and sales of $2.93 billion, matching the previous year's performance for the same quarter [2][5] - Historically, JBHT has experienced a favorable one-day stock return after earnings announcements in 55% of cases over the last five years, with a median positive return of 1.4% and a peak one-day gain of 8.7% [2][5] - The company currently has a market capitalization of $15 billion, generating $12 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, with an operating income of $816 million and a net profit of $561 million [2] Group 2 - The analysis of post-earnings returns shows that positive one-day returns occurred approximately 55% of the time over the past five years, but this percentage declines to 42% when considering the last three years [5] - The median of the 11 positive returns is 1.4%, while the median of the 9 negative returns is -6.9% [5] - A lower-risk strategy involves understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings, allowing traders to position themselves accordingly based on historical data [6]

Group 1 - Conagra Brands is set to announce its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on July 10, 2025, with analysts predicting earnings of $0.61 per share on revenue of $2.88 billion, which is approximately unchanged year-over-year [2] - The company has a current market capitalization of $10 billion and reported revenue of $12 billion over the previous twelve months, with operating profits of $481 million and net income of $329 million [3] - Snack volumes increased by 4% in Q3, driven by meat snacks and popcorn, indicating a positive trend in consumption as the industry shifts towards healthier options [2] Group 2 - Historical data shows that Conagra has recorded 18 earnings data points over the last five years, with 7 positive and 11 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 39% of the time [6] - The median of the 7 positive returns is 1.5%, while the median of the 11 negative returns is -2.0%, suggesting a mixed performance post-earnings [6] - The correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings can provide insights for traders, particularly if the 1D and 5D returns exhibit high correlation [7]

Core Insights - GitLab is expected to report Q1 results on June 10, with revenues projected at approximately $213 million, reflecting a 26% year-over-year increase, and earnings estimated at $0.15 per share, nearly five times higher than the previous year [2] - The company has a market capitalization of $7.4 billion, with total revenue over the past twelve months amounting to $759 million, and it reported an operational loss of $-143 million and a net income of $-6.3 million [2] - Historical data indicates a strong likelihood of positive stock performance post-earnings, with a 75% probability of a positive one-day return over the last three years [2][4] Earnings Performance - Over the last five years, GitLab has recorded 14 earnings data points, resulting in 10 positive and 4 negative one-day returns, leading to a 71% positive return rate, which increases to 75% when considering the last three years [4] - The median positive return for the 10 positive instances is 12%, while the median negative return for the 4 negative instances is -15% [4] Correlation with Peers - The performance of peer companies can influence GitLab's stock reactions following earnings announcements, with pricing potentially starting before the earnings are released [5] - Historical data shows a correlation between GitLab's post-earnings performance and that of its peers, which can provide insights for trading strategies [5]

Core Insights - Samsara Inc. is scheduled to report its earnings on June 5, 2025, with historical data indicating a 62% positive one-day return rate post-earnings announcements since 2022, a median increase of 14.7%, and a maximum single-day positive return of 27.9% [1][5][7] Financial Performance - Current consensus estimates predict earnings of $0.06 per share on revenues of $351 million, compared to earnings of $0.03 per share on revenues of $281 million in the same quarter last year [3] - Samsara has a market capitalization of $26 billion and generated $1.2 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, but reported an operating loss of $185 million and a net loss of $155 million during that period [4] Historical Earnings Reaction - Over the past five years, there have been 13 earnings data points for Samsara, with 8 positive and 5 negative one-day returns, resulting in a 62% positive return rate, which increases to 64% when considering the last three years [7] - The median of the 8 positive returns is 15%, while the median of the 5 negative returns is -12% [7] Trading Strategies - Two primary strategies for traders include understanding historical probabilities to position before earnings releases or analyzing immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings to inform subsequent actions [2] - A less risky strategy involves examining the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, allowing traders to take positions based on the strongest correlations [6]

Group 1 - Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) is expected to report fiscal Q1 earnings on May 28, 2025, with projected earnings of $1.34 per share and revenue of $1.06 billion, indicating a 37% decrease in earnings year-over-year but a 4% increase in sales compared to the previous year [1] - The company recorded full-year 2024 net sales of $4.95 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase, and achieved its highest operating margin in over a decade at 15% [2] - For 2025, net sales growth is projected to slow to 3%-5%, with operating margins expected to decrease slightly to 14%-15% due to trade tariff uncertainties [2] Group 2 - Historically, ANF stock has dropped 60% of the time after earnings announcements, with a median one-day decrease of 1.9% and a maximum decline of 10% [1] - Over the last five years, there have been 20 earnings data points for ANF, with positive one-day returns observed approximately 40% of the time, increasing to 50% in the last three years [6] - The median of positive one-day returns was 2.4%, while the median of negative returns was -1.9% [6]

For the quarter ended April 2025, Keysight (KEYS) reported revenue of $1.32 billion, up 8% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $1.70, compared to $1.41 in the year-ago quarter.The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.28 billion, representing a surprise of +2.85%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +3.66%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $1.64.While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they comp ...

For the quarter ended March 2025, Xponential Fitness (XPOF) reported revenue of $76.88 million, down 3.3% over the same period last year. EPS came in at -$0.20, compared to $0.16 in the year-ago quarter.The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $76.07 million, representing a surprise of +1.07%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of -233.33%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $0.15.While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings - ...

Cogent Communications (CCOI) reported $247.05 million in revenue for the quarter ended March 2025, representing a year-over-year decline of 7.2%. EPS of -$1.09 for the same period compares to -$1.29 a year ago.The reported revenue represents a surprise of -1.25% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $250.18 million. With the consensus EPS estimate being -$1.05, the EPS surprise was -3.81%.While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations ...