The Fed, as expected, cut rates by a quarter% and even with Jerome Powell saying that further rate cuts are not a foregone conclusion, the market is still pricing in a high probability of a cut in December. Powell reiterated signs of a slowing labor market and continued pressure on consumer prices as inflation has moved up since earlier in the year. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady amid a period of possible rate hikes as the country's new prime minister said the Japanese economy has so far weath ...

A divided Fed cuts their benchmark lending rate by a quarter percentage point and says they are going to end QT December 1st. There are two descents as policy makers reset the target range to 3 and 3/4 and 4%. No surprise Steven Myron descents in favor of a 50 basis point cut as President Trump wants and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmidt desents on the other side in favor of no move. the Fed's administered rates for interest on reserves and the primary credit rate mechanically decreased by a quarter ...

With that Fed decision. Here's Mike McKay. A divided Fed cuts their benchmark lending rate by a quarter percentage point and says they are going to end cut December 1st.There are two dissents as policymakers reset the target range to three, three quarters and 4%. No surprise, Steven Byron dissents in favor of a 50 basis point cut as President Trump wants. And Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmitt dissents on the other side in favor of no move.The Fed's administered rates for interest on reserves and the ...

Economic Outlook & Trade Tensions - US-China trade tensions, including export controls and potential tariffs, pose risks to the economic outlook [1] - Asia Pacific growth is forecasted at 45% this year, decreasing to 41% next year, but is subject to downside risks due to trade tensions [2] - Global economic growth is projected at 31% in the baseline scenario, but could be 03% percentage points lower with greater tariffs and supply chain disruptions [3][4] China's Economic Impact - China's exports to the US have declined sharply since 2017-2018, while exports to the rest of Asia, especially ASEAN, have increased [6][7] - Deflationary pressures in China are leading to lower export prices, impacting countries around it, including ASEAN [8][9] - Weak domestic demand in China exacerbates the issue, suggesting that boosting consumption and fixing the real estate sector could alleviate the spillover effects [9][10] Policy Recommendations for China - China provides approximately 4% of policy support every year for priority sectors, including EVs [11] - The report calls for China to scale back such policies and remove trade and investment restrictions to restructure growth and reduce internal and external imbalances [12]

Economic Announcements - The U.S. Jobless Claims for the week are expected to be released with a consensus of 229K for initial claims [2] - The PPI-Final Demand for September is anticipated to rise by 0.3 percent, compared to a decrease of 0.1 percent in the previous month [3] - The Commerce Department's Retail Sales for September is projected to increase by 0.4 percent, down from a 0.6 percent rise in August [3] - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for October is expected to be 7.5, a significant drop from 23.2 in the prior month [3] - Business Inventories for August are forecasted to increase by 0.2 percent, consistent with the previous month [4] - The Housing Market Index for October is expected to be 33, slightly up from 32 [4] Federal Reserve Speeches - Fed Governor Michael Barr will discuss 'Stablecoins' at 9.00 am ET [6] - Fed Governor Christopher Waller will address the economic outlook at the Council on Foreign Relations at 9.00 am ET [6] - Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman will speak at the Federal Reserve Stress Testing Research Conference at 10.00 am ET [7] - Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will present on 'Staying Sanguine About the Horizon' at 4.30 pm ET [7][8] Market Performance - Asian shares finished mostly higher, with Japan's Nikkei average rising by 1.27 percent to 48,277.74 [9] - The Australian benchmark S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.86 percent to a record closing high of 9,068.40 [10] - In the Asian trading session, gold prices reached above $4,230 an ounce, marking a record run [10]

Market Focus - Powell is scheduled to deliver an 'Economic Outlook' speech on October 14th [2] - The market stream will be live during Powell's speech [1] Economic Indicators & Terms Anticipation - Expectation of "Payroll" being mentioned, with a price target of less than 75 cents [2] - Anticipation of "Inflation" being mentioned more than 35 times [2] - Expectation of no mentions of "Tariff", "Trump", "Rate Cut", "AI / Artificial Intelligence", "Recession / Depression", or "Pardon Me / Sorry" [2]

Sentiment among US small businesses fell in September to a three-month low on less optimism about the economic outlook and greater concern about excess inventory https://t.co/wMXGWXNUcv ...

🇺🇸 TODAY: Fed Chair Powell will speak at 12.20 P.M. ET on Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy.Will he mention rate cuts? https://t.co/FmX2veAIns ...

Economic Outlook Speech Focus - Payroll data is likely to be mentioned, mirroring previous speeches where it was highlighted [1] - Consumer spending is expected to be acknowledged due to its relevance to the economy [1] Topics Unlikely to be Addressed - A "Pardon Me / Sorry" remark is not anticipated, as it was a one-off occurrence [1] - A rate cut is unlikely to be discussed, as the Economic Outlook focuses on the overall economy, unlike FOMC meetings [1] - Artificial Intelligence (AI) is not expected to be a primary topic, as it is typically addressed during Q&A sessions [2]

Core Insights - The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index showed little change in September, indicating that global supply chains are still operating below full capacity [1][4] - Chinese factories reported a significant increase in purchasing, leading to a rise in global manufacturing procurement activity, while North American supply chains faced challenges due to tariff-related delays and economic concerns [2][7] - European supply chains remained underutilized, with manufacturers in key countries reducing purchasing and stockpiles, marking the weakest activity level since March [3][8] Regional Key Findings - **Asia**: Chinese manufacturers increased purchasing sharply in September, resulting in the busiest level for Asia's supply chains since June 2022 [7][8] - **North America**: Manufacturers were hesitant to stockpile further due to economic outlook concerns, with tariff-related disruptions impacting manufacturing activity [8] - **Europe**: Supply chain activity in Germany, France, and Italy declined, leading to a six-month low in the region's index [8] Demand and Inventory Trends - September saw a revival in factory purchasing, particularly in Asia, driven by increased demand in China [8] - The frequency of global manufacturers stockpiling due to price or supply fears decreased, indicating reduced concerns about inflation or item availability [8] - Global supply shortages tracker showed a decrease, suggesting robust item availability for manufacturers [8][14] Transportation and Labor Insights - Global transportation costs remained in line with historically normal levels during September [14] - Staffing capacity was not a constraint for global manufacturers, with reports of backlogs due to labor shortages falling below the long-term average [14]