You can of course argue with the Edelman numbers[1] for any given jurisdiction. For example, I am skeptical about their stats for Nigeria and Kenya.However, their numbers do track both (a) the GDP figures[2] and (b) the visible improvement on the ground in places like Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, India, and China.In general, the big picture is that the former first world is now mostly the descending world. While much of the former third world is now the ascending world. There are some exceptions, but that’s the ...

August 1, 2025 09:07 PM GMT Bradley.Tian@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0826 US Public Policy & Economics | North America Tariff Turnaround Key Takeaways Extel Survey: If you've found our research useful this year, we and our colleagues would appreciate your support in the 2025 Extel Global Fixed Income Survey. We are competing in the Global Macro Strategy, Fixed Income Strategy, US Economics, and Municipal Strategy categories. 1) Where is the effective tariff rate now as a result of recent actions? Following ...

Joining me now is Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack. And Beth, if we only had something to talk about this, I mean, it's been a really quiet and quiet morning. Yeah.Were you gobsmacked by these numbers. It was a disappointing report, to be sure. But when I look at the data, we don't try not to make too much of any one individual report. And so we look at the confluence of data. We look at the longer term picture.What we have is a labor market that is showing signs that we should be watching carefully, ha ...

No change. The Federal Reserve holding rates steady in the range of four and a quarter to four and a half percent. But two Federal Reserve governors Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman dissenting, preferring to cut rates by 25 basis points, underscoring division within this Federal Reserve over the impact of President Trump's tariffs on inflation.This is the first time in 30 years that we have seen two Federal Reserve governors descent simultaneously. Now, there were some changes to the policy statement. Notab ...

Federal Reserve Policy & Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is in no rush to adjust interest rates due to uncertainty about the economy, inflation, and the labor market [3] - The unemployment rate remains stable, similar to the previous summer [1][2][5] - The Fed aims to prevent any rise in inflation from becoming persistent, emphasizing the importance of keeping inflation expectations in check through patience [3] - The market anticipates rate cuts in the coming year, regardless of economic data, potentially influenced by a new Fed chair [13] - All Federal Open Market Committee members expect interest rates to be lower by the end of next year [17] Labor Market Dynamics - Labor demand growth is slowing, but the labor market hasn't loosened because the unemployment rate is unchanged [5] - Both labor supply and labor demand have slowed, with immigration policy being a contributing factor to the slowdown in labor supply [2][5] - Payroll employment growth has decelerated, which could become problematic if the trend continues [4] Tariff Impact & Trade Policy - The impact of tariffs on the economy is uncertain, particularly regarding inflation and business fixed investment [3][10] - A hypothetical 18%-20% tariff rate is compared to the economic tensions of the 1930s [6] - The current tariff shock may be more significant than in the 1930s due to a higher share of imports in GDP [8] - Most economists believe that tariffs will eventually be passed through to consumers, with every 1% increase in tariffs as a percent of imports adding about 01% to the price level [11][12] - An increase from 25% to 17%-18% in tariffs on imports could raise the level of prices by about 05% [12]

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate range at 425 to 450 basis points [1] - Two governors dissented, favoring a 25 basis point rate cut [1] - Nine votes supported holding rates steady [2] Economic Outlook - Economic growth moderated in the first half of the year [3] - Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated [3][4] - Inflation remains somewhat elevated [4] - The labor market is solid with low unemployment [4] Forward Guidance - The statement does not hint at an imminent rate cut in September [5] - The committee is attentive to risks on both sides of the mandate [4] - Swings in exports continue to affect the data [2]

No rate moves to distance as anticipated and no future guidance. The benchmark rate remains in a range of four and a quarter to four and a half percent. Even though policymakers say that economic growth moderated in the first half of the year as, quote, swings in net exports continue to affect the data.Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated, their statement says. They dropped the suggestion in the last statement that it had diminished, but there are no hints about future moves. September is ...

Federal Reserve Independence - The core issue is the President's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates, which is considered unwise given the current data [3] - The unusual aspect is the public nature of this pressure, risking the perception of the Fed's independence [3] - Resignation of the Fed Chair Powell would be a political move and counterproductive to demonstrating independence [5] - The best course of action for the FOMC is to base decisions on incoming data and maintain a wait-and-see approach [6] - The strength and independence of the Federal Reserve are being tested by the President's public pressure [9] Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy - The President's characterization of the economy as "hot" might influence the Fed's reluctance to cut rates [10] - Current economic indicators, such as jobless claims at 217,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%, suggest a strong economy [10][11] - The market believes the Fed has already factored in two rate cuts [11] - Current incoming data does not support the concept of a rate cut [14] - Inappropriate rate cuts could lead to higher borrowing costs for the US due to increased inflation expectations [14]

💥BREAKING:FED’S POWELL DOES NOT COMMENT ON ECONOMIC OR MONETARY POLICY OUTLOOK IN WELCOMING REMARKS TO THE FED BANKING CONFERENCE. ...

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy has shown resilience through the second quarter of the year, but potential stumbling blocks remain for the economic outlook [1][2] - Positive factors include the finalization of tax reform and potential deregulation, while significant risks include tariffs, trade uncertainty, worsening geopolitical conditions, high fiscal deficits, and elevated asset prices [2] JPMorgan's Position - JPMorgan tends to be cautious in its projections due to past crises that have caught many off guard [2] - The complexity of forecasting future economic conditions is acknowledged, with a suggestion that predicting inflection points can often be a waste of time [5] Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is deemed critical for economic stability, with concerns that interference could lead to adverse consequences [10] - The current president has publicly criticized the Fed and its leadership, but has stated he will not attempt to remove the current chair, Jerome Powell [6][9]