谨慎派则聚焦结构性隐患与衍生风险。美国近70%电网设施服役超25年，燃气电厂设备超期服役问题突出，此次风暴再次暴露基建老化短板，未来极端天气 下能源危机或频繁上演。同时，能源价格暴涨可能推升核心通胀，制约美联储降息空间，叠加此前经济对AI的单一依赖，多重压力下衰退风险或边际上 升。此外，公用事业公司的成本缓冲效应有限，终端用户账单上涨将逐步显现，抑制居民消费活力。 价格暴涨快速向全产业链传导，经济损失持续扩大。交通领域首当其冲，单周日航班取消量超1.1万架次，创疫情以来新高，全美累计取消航班超1.6万架 次，UPS等物流巨头预警服务中断。制造业受双重挤压，墨西哥湾沿岸化工企业因低温关停部分装置，天然气作为原料和燃料的双重属性，推高乙烯、聚丙 烯等产品成本，下游包装、家电行业承压。AccuWeather预估，此次风暴造成的经济损失将达1050亿至1150亿美元，堪比重大自然灾害。 宏观经济层面，寒潮正削弱美国一季度增长动能。摩根士丹利测算，风暴可能拖累一季度GDP增速0.5至1.5个百分点，若按上限计算，或将抹去该季度大部 分预期增幅。更复杂的是，能源价格上涨可能干扰通胀数据与政策判断，牛津经济研究院指出，极端 ...

Top economist David Rosenberg has issued a stark warning about the underlying health of the U.S. economy, contrasting a robust headline GDP figure with deteriorating industrial data that he argues signals recessionary weakness comparable to the 2009 financial crisis.The Industrial RealityIn a post on X on Monday, the president of Rosenberg Research highlighted a massive disconnect between official government growth data and on-the-ground industrial activity.While the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) r ...

You don’t have to drive too far down memory lane to remember when gasoline prices hit their highest point ever. It happened in June 2022, when the national average for regular gas reached $5.016 a gallon, according to AAA. Today, that average has fallen to about $2.834 a gallon. For gas prices to reach $10 a gallon, they’d have to roughly double the all-time high. Nobody is predicting that to happen anytime soon. But what if gas prices did hit $10 a gallon? GOBankingRates asked ChatGPT that question, an ...

Economic Outlook - Most economists expect the U.S. economy to grow in 2026, driven by the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" Act and increased AI spending [2][5] - A Philadelphia Federal Reserve survey indicates an average GDP growth rate of 1.8% for 2026, with inflation projected to slow to a 2.6% annual rate by Q4 2026 [6] - JPMorgan forecasts a growth rate of around 3% in the first half of 2026, tapering to between 1% and 2% later in the year, with inflation expected to decrease from over 3% to near 2% by year-end [7] Inflation and Economic Conditions - Inflation is anticipated to remain elevated above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, raising questions about the feasibility of a "soft landing" [4][5] - Wells Fargo suggests that a softer labor market and potential tariff relief could help lower inflation, although it is still expected to stay above the Fed's target [9] - Analysts note that while economic growth may start strong in early 2026, it could slow later due to rising tariffs and tighter immigration policies [9][8] Market Sentiment - Despite economists' optimism, public sentiment reflects uncertainty, with a predictions market indicating a 35% chance of a recession by the end of 2026 [10]

美国总统特朗普今年"钦点"的美联储理事米兰（Stephen Miran）警告，除非美联储明年继续降息，否则 美国经济将面临衰退的风险。这一表态与多位美联储官员近期的谨慎立场形成鲜明对比，凸显联储内部 在利率政策路径上的深度分化。 美东时间22日周一，米兰在接受采访时表示："如果我们不调整政策，我们将面临日益严重的经济衰退 风险。" 他强调，失业率已经上升到超出预期的水平，这些数据应该会促使美联储决策者向鸽派方向转 变。 米兰同时表示，他尚未决定在明年1月的下次美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会议上支持降息25个基点还 是50个基点，但认为可能还需要几次降息。他还说，"我认为短期内不会出现经济衰退"，不过上升的失 业率应促使美联储官员继续降息。 米兰的表态与近期其他的美联储官员截然不同。他讲话一天前，上周日公布的访谈显示，明年拥有 FOMC会议投票权的克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克（Beth Hammack）表示，暂停降息是她目前的基本预 期。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯、波士顿联储主席柯林斯和理事沃勒上周也都表达了更为谨慎的立场。 米兰主张继续降息以防经济恶化 米兰本周一在接受彭博电视采访时详细阐述了他对货币政策的看法。他指出： ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious optimism regarding the US economy, with a forecasted 30% chance of recession in 2026, indicating a relatively stable investment environment for the time being [9][10]. Core Insights - The US economy has shown resilience despite recession indicators, largely driven by the AI boom, which has led to significant growth in sectors like data center construction [3][5]. - The labor market is experiencing stagnation, with low unemployment but also the lowest hiring levels in decades, creating a challenging environment for workers [13][14]. - Inflation remains a concern, influenced by tariffs that have not severely impacted the economy but have slowed down interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [15][16]. - Consumer spending is strong but increasingly concentrated among the wealthiest 10%, raising concerns about the overall economic stability [17][18]. - The AI sector is a major growth driver, with significant contributions from leading tech companies, but this reliance poses risks if the AI market falters [20][21]. Summary by Sections Labor Market - The job market is characterized by low unemployment and layoffs, but hiring is at historic lows, leading to a sense of stagnation among workers [13][14]. Inflation - Tariffs introduced by the Trump administration have created inflationary pressures, but the economy has shown resilience against dire predictions [15][16]. Consumer - Consumer spending remains robust, but the top 10% of earners account for nearly half of all spending, indicating potential vulnerabilities in the broader economy [17][18]. Artificial Intelligence - AI is a key driver of economic growth, with major companies heavily invested in the sector, but this creates a precarious situation if the market experiences a downturn [20][21].

Economic Disparity - An increasing gap in the economy is noted, where wealthy households drive most economic activity while low-income Americans struggle financially [1][3] - The top 20% of earners in the U.S. account for nearly two-thirds of all spending, a record high, while the bottom 80% have seen their share of spending decrease from 42% to 37% since before the pandemic [3] Impact of Stock Market - A potential stock market downturn could significantly affect wealthier households, which are described as the "last pillars" of strength in the economy, potentially leading to a recession [2][4] - The richest 20% of U.S. households own approximately 93% of all stocks, indicating their substantial influence on economic growth [5] Role of AI Stocks - The soaring stock prices of artificial intelligence companies are crucial for the economy, as spending by affluent Americans, driven by their increasing stock portfolios, is a major growth driver [5]

Economic Overview - Canada's GDP increased in September, allowing the country to avoid a technical recession despite ongoing trade war and tariff uncertainties [2][8] - The unemployment rate fell slightly in October, marking the first drop in three months, but remains around 7%, the highest in four years [3][8] Consumer Behavior - Average household spending per capita fell by 0.2% from July to September, with 41% of Canadians planning to spend less during the holidays compared to last year [5][10] - Consumer confidence has been at historic lows throughout the year, reflecting concerns about the overall economy and job market [2][8] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index for October showed an average price increase of 2.2% compared to the same period in 2022, with food prices rising by 3.4% [7][8] - Despite some positive economic indicators, consumers are facing higher prices than the previous year, leading to increased precautionary savings [9][10] Economic Sentiment - Experts suggest that while macroeconomic indicators may show growth, individual experiences can vary significantly, with many feeling economically strained [6][11] - The Bank of Canada noted the cautious consumer sentiment, attributing it to concerns about job security and economic stability [10][11]

Economic Overview - Russia's economy is experiencing significant strain, with GDP growth slowing to 0.6% in the third quarter, missing estimates, and a budget deficit projected to rise to 2.6% of GDP by year-end [17] - Oil and gas revenue has dropped over 20% from January to October, totaling 7.5 trillion rubles, due to lower crude prices, sanctions, and a stronger currency [18] - The banking sector is facing challenges, with troubled corporate debt rising to 10.4% in the second quarter, amounting to 9.1 trillion rubles ($112 billion) [16] Consumer Behavior - Inflation has eased to approximately 6.8% in early November, primarily due to weakening consumer demand, with households cutting back on food spending [8] - The average weekly grocery bill has more than doubled in recent years, leading families to buy fewer fruits and vegetables [9] - Sales of essential goods like milk, pork, buckwheat, and rice have dropped by 8-10% in September and October [10] Retail Sector Dynamics - The retail sector is undergoing a major transformation, with fashion retailers accounting for 45% of all store closures in the third quarter [11] - The electronics market is experiencing its sharpest demand drop in 30 years, as consumers postpone major purchases [11] - Car sales have shrunk by nearly 25% in the first nine months of the year, impacted by high borrowing costs and increased taxes [12] Industry-Specific Challenges - The steel industry is in crisis, with total consumption down 14% this year, and demand for steel in construction and machinery declining by 10% and 32% respectively [15] - Coal mining is facing its worst situation in a decade, with major companies cutting output [15] - The domestic fuel market is experiencing a crisis due to Ukrainian military actions, leading to price spikes and shortages in some regions [13] Government Response and Future Outlook - The Russian government is increasing debt through expensive domestic sales and plans to issue yuan-denominated sovereign bonds [21] - A rise in value-added tax and new levies on electronic components and vehicles are expected to add 1.2 trillion rubles to state coffers [22] - Analysts suggest that without a resolution to the ongoing conflict, a steady deterioration in economic conditions is likely to continue [21][23]

Core Insights - Jeff Bezos has expressed concerns about the current economic climate, indicating a slowdown and layoffs across various sectors [2][3] - He advises individuals to reconsider large purchases, suggesting a cautious approach to spending in light of potential economic downturns [3] Real Estate Sector - Real estate is highlighted as a resilient investment option, even amid rising mortgage rates, according to Invesco [4] - Historical data shows that from 1978 to 2021, US private real estate outperformed equities and bonds in seven out of ten years when the Federal Funds rate increased [5] - Investors can benefit from both price appreciation and steady rental income, with options available that do not require direct property management [5] Investment Platforms - First National Realty Partners offers accredited investors the opportunity to invest in institutional-quality properties leased by major brands, providing stable cash flow without the need for active management [6] - Mogul is another platform that allows fractional ownership in blue-chip rental properties, offering monthly rental income and tax benefits without significant upfront costs or management responsibilities [7]