李冈峰 欧洲天然资源基金 Commodity Discovery 特约分析师 这是一个主要从美国每周的CFTC数据公布基金(Managed Positions)在当地期货市场的各种部署，继而反映 现时市场对贵金属的情绪和对短/中期的一个价格判断。美国每周五收市后公布的CFTC数据，记录日为刚过 去的周二(如果过去一周原本工作日是假日的话数据出炉会延期)。 概要 市场认为今年9月美国会开始减息，机率达75.1%，这也可能是近期全球股票市场炽热的主要原因 (最近留意到香港政府在市场上买港元维持跟美元汇率，可能代表资金回流美国)。美股没崩，导致 市场资金变得更投机和进取，这也可能是近期白银、铂金及铜等开始领跑的主要原因，相反之前 一直强势的黄金却静了下来(但执笔时依然在3300美元上方！) 世界银行早前宣布，预计今年全球经济增长只有2.3%，较今年年初预测的2.8%低。如果他们对未 来2年的经济预测也比较靠谱， 那2020-2027年将会是自1960年以来经济增长最低的年代 。 经济 低增长加上贸易政策，他们相信今年商品的平均价格会同比下跌10%，明年平均值再下跌6%；相 反他们比较看好黄金、白银及铂金类金属，认为 ...

随着特朗普的关税政策让企业陷入冻结式观望模式，历经2023和2024年两次虚惊的美国经济，这次可 能真的要面对考验。 6月7日，有"新美联储通讯社"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos发表文章称， 尽管美国经济在2023 年和2024年成功避开了多次衰退警报，但目前正步入另一个令人不安的夏季。 虽然5月份美国新增13.9 万就业岗位，失业率在过去一年中一直保持在4%至4.2%的稳定区间，但经济表面之下已出现裂痕。 最令人担忧的是，企业纷纷警告，不断变化的贸易政策正干扰其未来规划能力，导致招聘和投资冻结。 这种政策不确定性发生在就业增长放缓、房地产市场降温的背景下。与去年相比，美联储也因担忧新的 通胀风险而更加不愿降息。 文章指出，劳动力市场脆弱平衡、消费者支出变化和金融市场冲击——这个三大因素可能会以令人猝不 及防的方式出现断裂。 正如洛杉矶Beacon Economics创始合伙人Christopher Thornberg所说："这一切的走向完全取决于特朗 普接下来会做什么，坦白说，就连特朗普自己也不知道他下一步会做什么。所以几乎不可能预测局势的 发展方向。" 华尔街见闻此前提及，安联首席经济顾问 ...

J.P. Morgan research suggests the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 is dropping below 50% from its 60% peak, now that the Trump administration is pulling punches on some of its more aggressive tariff policies, allowing the S&P 500 to rebound after dipping into correction territory back in March. However, the risk is still high. But don’t worry — recessions and crashes do not necessarily spell doom for your portfolio. Instead of trying to time the market perfectly or panic-selling during downturns, whi ...

Sentiment check post US-China truce + Trade ideas 美中停⽕后的情绪检查及交易策略 We surveyed more than 1,100 clients on risk sentiment following trade war de-escalation news of the past week--link 我们对 1100 多名客⼾进⾏了⻛险情绪调查，内容涉及过去⼀周贸易战降级的消息——链接. 市场洞察 - Marquee --- Market Insights - Marquee Market Insights | Markets | Equities 市场洞察 | 市场 | 股票 市场洞察 - Marquee --- Market Insights - Marque e 给看空者 :: 如果你认为 2025 年"可能"会像 2022 年那样，硬数据恶化逐渐影响股价……我们有⼀个系统化 策略，建议你这个周末阅读 :: 给我们发邮件 Detailed results: 详细结果： while risk sentiment improved on the ...

虽然我们尚未陷入衰退，但经济增速显著放缓。 亿万富翁、对冲基金Point72 Asset Management创始人Steve Cohen：美国爆发经济衰退的概率现在为45% 左右。 ...

Market Overview - Stocks surged on Monday due to a U.S.-China deal to temporarily reduce high reciprocal tariffs, fostering optimism about avoiding a global economic recession [1] - The S&P 500 rose by +3% and the Nasdaq increased by over +4%, driven by a rebound in big tech stocks [2] Big Tech Stocks - Mega-cap tech stocks, including Apple, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Tesla, led the market gains, with each rising over +6% [3] - Analysts may become more bullish on Apple's short-term outlook as a significant portion of its production is based in China [3] - Tesla's stock has spiked +25% in the last month, but it has a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell) due to declining earnings estimate revisions, making it a candidate to fade the rally [4] Microsoft and Nvidia - Microsoft and Nvidia are gaining momentum, with Microsoft being the only Mag 7 stock rated as a buy (Zacks Rank 2) [5] - Microsoft’s fiscal 2025 EPS estimates have increased by 2% over the last 60 days, with FY26 EPS estimates up by 1% [5] Chinese Tech Stocks - Chinese tech stocks like Alibaba and Tencent have benefited from improved investor sentiment, with both having a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [6] - Alibaba's ADR has soared nearly +60% year-to-date, while Tencent is up over +20%, driven by their AI expansions [8] Retail Sector - Retailers such as Nike, Starbucks, Walmart, and Target are heavily reliant on supply chain operations from China, making improved U.S.-China relations beneficial for their outlook [9] - Nike generated 14% of its revenue from China in 2024, amounting to $5.5 billion from footwear sales [10] Energy and Transportation Stocks - Energy and transportation stocks are expected to receive a boost from the trade agreement, with crude prices rising by +2% to over $62 a barrel, although still down 20% in 2025 [14] Conclusion - The U.S.-China trade agreement has reassured investors about the global economy's resilience against higher tariffs, making the next 90 days critical for monitoring progress [16]

Group 1 - Udemy experienced a significant stock price decline of nearly 12% in April, attributed to investor sentiment and external economic factors [1] - The company underwent a sudden CEO transition from Greg Brown to Hugo Sarrazin, which contributed to shareholder unease [2][6] - An analyst downgrade from Truist Securities reduced the price target for Udemy from $10 to $7, reflecting concerns about the company's positioning in a potential recession [4][6] Group 2 - The economic climate is causing fears of a recession, which typically leads consumers to cut back on non-discretionary spending, impacting Udemy's business model [5] - Despite reporting a more than tripled non-GAAP net income of nearly $17.9 million year over year, Udemy's revenue growth was only 2%, reaching slightly over $200 million [8] - Current guidance for the second quarter and full year was in line with analyst expectations, but the overall sentiment remains cautious regarding Udemy's potential for significant growth [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Southwest Airlines is facing significant challenges due to potential economic downturns, leading to a sharp decline in stock price and the withdrawal of crucial profitability guidance for 2025 and 2026 [1][6]. Company Performance - In the first quarter of 2024, Southwest Airlines reported a revenue increase of less than 2% year over year, totaling just over $6.4 billion, which was in line with analyst expectations [4]. - The company narrowed its bottom-line loss to $77 million, compared to a shortfall of $218 million in the first quarter of 2024. The non-GAAP net loss improved to $0.13 per share from $0.36, beating the consensus projection of $0.17 [5]. Industry Context - The airline industry is highly sensitive to economic conditions, particularly discretionary consumer spending, which tends to decline during recessions [2][4]. - A study by Bank of America Institute indicated a 2.5% year-over-year decrease in weekly consumer spending on lodging as of March 22, suggesting a waning post-pandemic travel demand [8]. - The potential for a recession could exacerbate the already challenging environment for the airline and tourism industries, making recovery difficult for companies like Southwest Airlines [9].

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first quarter of negative growth since Q1 2022 and missing analysts' expectations of 0.4% growth [3] - Consumer confidence fell by 7.9 points to 86 in April, reaching a five-year low, indicating a lack of investor confidence in the economy [6] Trade and Tariffs - Concerns are rising that President Trump's tariffs could negatively impact economic health, despite a temporary 90-day pause on tariffs that led to a 41.3% increase in imports for the quarter, while exports only grew by 1.8% [4][6] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending has slowed as individuals are saving more in anticipation of tougher economic conditions, alongside a significant decline in federal expenditures contributing to sluggish GDP figures [5] Dividend-Paying Stocks - In light of economic uncertainty, investing in dividend-paying stocks is recommended as they tend to provide steady income and stability [2][7] - Atkore Inc. (ATKR) announced a dividend of $0.33 per share with a dividend yield of 2%, having increased its dividend once in the past five years with a payout ratio of 12% [9][8] - Enact Holdings, Inc. (ACT) declared a dividend of $0.21 per share and has a dividend yield of 2.07%, having increased its dividend six times in the past five years with a payout ratio of 16% [11][10] - Pool Corporation (POOL) announced a dividend of $1.25 per share with a dividend yield of 1.64%, having increased its dividend six times in the past five years and a payout ratio of 46% [13][12] - American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK) declared a dividend of $0.83 per share with a dividend yield of 2.08%, having increased its dividend six times in the past five years and a payout ratio of 57% [15][14]

Core Insights - Xbox is increasing prices for its gaming consoles, controllers, first-party titles, and accessories due to US tariffs affecting global supply chains [1] - The Xbox Series X will now retail for approximately $600 in the US, marking a $100 increase [1] - Sony has also raised prices for its PlayStation 5 console, indicating a trend among console manufacturers to adjust for rising manufacturing costs [2] Industry Trends - Gaming consoles are projected to be the primary growth driver for the video game industry this year, with Nintendo set to launch the Switch 2 in June [2][6] - The PlayStation 5 Pro is priced around $700 in the US, reflecting the industry's shift towards higher pricing [2] - Nintendo has resumed pre-orders for the Switch 2 after a delay due to tariff uncertainties [6] Economic Impact - Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on manufacturing hubs like Japan, China, and Vietnam have led to increased prices in the gaming industry [3] - Analysts have expressed concerns that these tariffs may hinder industry growth, especially amid potential economic recession and rising inflation affecting consumer spending [3] Pricing Strategies - Xbox plans to increase prices of certain first-party games to around $80, following Nintendo's pricing strategy for "Mario Kart World," potentially establishing a new industry standard [7]